Monday, April19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hyde Park, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:07AMSunset 7:42PM Monday April 19, 2021 4:51 PM EDT (20:51 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 2:02AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 325 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers with isolated tstms.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely in the evening.
Thu..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 325 Pm Edt Mon Apr 19 2021
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure remains over the waters today as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. The high moves offshore tonight into Tuesday. A strong cold front approaches Tuesday night, moving across the waters late Wednesday. High pressure follows for the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hyde Park, NY
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location: 41.78, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 192000 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 400 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Showers will end this evening, allowing for skies to partially clear out overnight. Dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday, although temperatures will vary greatly across the region. A strong frontal boundary will bring rain and possible thunderstorms on Wednesday, with a changeover to snow across the higher elevations before ending. Much colder temperatures will be in place for Thursday and Friday with a few lingering mountain snow showers.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 400 PM EDT . Weak upper level disturbance is moving across Upstate New York this afternoon with some light rain showers. A few of the showers have contained some small hail and a rumble of thunder thanks to the relatively cool temps aloft. Will continue to mention the chance for some light showers through the evening hours as the disturbance tracks west to east across the area, but will limit the threat for thunder through about 7 or 8 PM.

Behind this disturbance, skies should be briefly clearing out for most areas overnight, as clouds diminish. Temps look to fall into the mid 30s to low 40s before clouds start to return towards daybreak Tuesday. With the skies being cleared out for a while, can't rule out a few patches of fog for locations that saw rainfall today, but this should be fairly isolated.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As a closed off upper level low moves across Ontario and Quebec, a fast moving frontal boundary will be moving across northern pats of the region for Tuesday morning. Moisture will be limited, so not expecting much precip (if at all) with this frontal boundary. There will be a fair amounts of clouds around for early in the day, but skies should be clearing out decently by afternoon. Westerly winds will be increased, along with drying out in the boundary layer as well. As a result, there will be a large range in temps across the region. While northern areas across the Adirondacks closer to the cold pool will be stuck in the 40s, downslope areas within the mid Hudson Valley will be reaching close to 70 degrees, as the frontal boundary may not quite clear through these southern areas.

The frontal boundary will be lifting back northward as a warm front for Tuesday night, as a large storm system over the Midwest begins approaching. This will allow for clouds to return and some showers as well, especially after midnight. Most areas will be just be seeing rainfall, although the highest terrain of the Adirondacks could be cold enough for some wet snow to mix in at times. Lows will range from near freezing the Adirondacks to the mid to upper 40s for the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley.

A deepening area of low pressure will be lifting northward from the mid Atlantic States and into the Northeast on Wednesday. This low pressure area will be moving along a cold front that will be moving from west to east across the area. A strong thermal gradient will be associated with this boundary, with much colder air (both at the surface and aloft) on the western side of the boundary. Showers will be widespread across the area ahead of the boundary for Wednesday morning. Some models (such as the 3km NAM) are also suggesting a well-forced line of heavier showers just ahead of the boundary. Model sounding suggest some elevated instability may be occurring, especially just ahead of the front, so will include a slight chc of thunder for central and southern areas. Considering the strong dynamics in place, can't rule out some gusty winds mixing down with the rain band that may develop, although this is still somewhat uncertain.

Right behind the front, temps will be cooling fast and any lingering precip may be changing over to snow before ending. With the wave of low pressure moving along the boundary, this could allow for a steadier area of precip on the backside of the boundary as well. While valley areas may not cool down fast enough to see much, high terrain areas may see a light accumulation of snow before precip tapers off (especially the Adirondacks). While temps may reach the 40s and 50s ahead of the front, they look to rapidly fall into the 20s and 30s for Thursday night. A few lingering upslope/lake enhanced snow showers are possible for all of Thursday night as well, even into valley areas.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The long term period will start off with chilly weather and chances for rain/snow showers on Thursday in the wake of our departing cold front, but drier weather and moderating temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday. There is the potential for another storm system to bring appreciable rainfall to the region for the second half of the weekend, with the possibility of showers lingering into the Monday Details below.

We begin the period with low pressure departing to the north an east. The 500 mb low associated with this surface cyclone will be located over upstate NY and will gradually move eastward during the day Thursday. With cold temperatures aloft, expecting to see some convective rain/snow/graupel showers, especially with steepening lapse rates during the day Thursday. Any sun that breaks through the clouds will further help to destabilize the atmosphere and increase chances for showers. Guidance also suggests another upper-level impulse approaching our region Thursday afternoon or evening as it rotates around the upper low, which could further help to spark initiate some pop up showers. Therefore have included chance PoPs for Thursday, with the best chance for precip in our northern and western areas and in the higher terrain where westerly upslope flow could enhance low-level forcing. Winds will also be breezy out of the W/NW, with a tight pressure gradient between the departing surface cyclone and high pressure to our southwest. With temperatures only climbing into the 40s to around 50, it will be like a cold, raw day.

Some improvement looks likely Friday as heights rise aloft and we will likely see large-scale subsidence as the shortwave that brought showers moves to our south and east. High temperatures should moderate into the 50s to around 60 for highs with some warm air advection expected. Saturday looks like another nice day, as we will be under the influence of a transient upper-level ridge. With high pressure sliding off to our south/southeast and warm air advection, temperatures should climb into the mid 60s for many areas across the region.

Next potential storm system looks to approach Saturday night. A sharp northern stream trough looks to dive south toward the Great Lakes and may interact with southern stream energy over the southeast U.S. The degree of phasing between the northern and southern stream is uncertain at this time and will largely govern how much precipitation we see. Given recent trends in the 12z Euro/CMC towards less phasing, decided to hold PoPs in the 40-70% range during this time period. With this trough becoming negatively tilted, there is the potential for a widespread, soaking rain for most of the region, but forecast confidence in this particular solution is low given the 6-7 day lead time. Precipitation type looks to be mostly rain, although cannot rule out some snow mixing in for the high elevations of the Adirondacks. Will continue to monitor this time period over the next several days and make adjustments to the forecast as needed.

It remains uncertain how quickly this upper trough moves through the region, so have included a slight chance to chance for showers into the day Monday. With cool NW flow behind the departing low, Monday could be another seasonably cool day with the current forecast for highs only in the 50s to around 60.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Scattered afternoon showers have developed this afternoon in the vicinity of the TAF sites. The current wind trajectory favors showers tracking towards ALB and PSF but an isolated shower is still possible at POU and GFL. While skies have turn mostly cloudy as of 18 UTC, ceilings are still VFR ranging 6 - 8kft. During any strong shower, ceilings may briefly drop to 4-5kft and visibilities drop to 5SM. We used a TEMPO group to outline this potential.

Once we lose daytime heating towards 22 - 00 UTC, showers and clouds should diminish with mainly clear skies expected this evening. Fog and low stratus may develop as early as 03 - 05 UTC this evening at any site that received rainfall this afternoon. Confidence is higher that GFL and especially PSF may experience fog/stratus which is why we included IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities at these sites. Patchy fog may also develop at ALB but due to less confidence, we only show MVFR visibilities developing there. Mid and high clouds expand towards GFL, ALB and PSF after 06 UTC which could mitigate any fog that develops.

A cold front and wind shift boundary moves through the TAF sites tomorrow morning from 12 - 15 UTC which should result in south or southwesterly winds shifting to the west or northwest. Wind speeds will also likely increase with sustained winds between 8 and 12 kts. In addition, low end VFR ceilings are possible in the wake of the boundary. We did not have enough confidence to include MVFR ceilings at this possible but we may introduce it in future updates.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact Definite SHRA. TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Breezy. Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Thursday: Low Operational Impact Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. SHSN. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Dry weather will return for tonight into tomorrow. RH values will recover back to 80% or so for tonight with skies clearing out. Behind a front on Tuesday morning, RH values will lower to 35 to 50 percent with westerly winds around 10 mph. A few gusts may reach close to 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon as well. A widespread soaking rainfall is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. Light rain showers will diminish this evening,allowing for mainly dry conditions for overnight into Tuesday. An approaching storm system will return some precip to the region for Tuesday night through Wednesday. While valley areas will see mainly rain, high terrain areas could changeover to snow before ending. Total QPF amounts look around a half to three-quarters of an inch. These rainfall amounts would result in only minor rises on rivers and streams. A few lingering showers are possible for Thursday into Friday, but this won't have any additional impact on area waterways.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . Frugis SHORT TERM . Frugis LONG TERM . Main AVIATION . Speciale FIRE WEATHER . Frugis HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPXN6 4 mi81 min N 2.9 63°F 1010 hPa38°F
TKPN6 16 mi51 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 58°F1008.1 hPa (-1.9)39°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 17 mi81 min SW 2.9 65°F 1007 hPa41°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 58 mi51 min NNW 4.1 G 7 60°F 49°F1009 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY10 mi58 minESE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F41°F48%1007.9 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY20 mi66 minW 410.00 miOvercast59°F39°F48%1008.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

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Last 24hrW10W9W6SW5SW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW9SW3SE3E5SE9
1 day agoN5N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmCalmW33SW6W11
2 days agoNW4N4N6NW3NW5N5NW4Calm4N4N6N7N4NE5NW3SW3NW4NW6NW545W10N8NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
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Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:12 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:31 PM EDT     2.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.91.21.82.52.93.132.82.41.81.20.90.80.811.522.32.52.52.31.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:05 PM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.911.422.62.932.92.62.11.51.10.90.80.81.21.72.12.42.52.42.11.61.2

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