Sunrise 6:27 AM   Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 2:14 AM   Moonset 11:47 AM

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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 943 Am Edt Wed May 1 2024
This afternoon - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 011918 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 318 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon gusts of 25-35 mph end after sunset.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

- Shower and thunderstorm (70-80% chance) return on Friday.

DISCUSSION

The ongoing passage of a cold front, which coincides with peak diurnal heating, have allowed daytime highs to push into the mid to upper 70s. The capped and dry environment along the front will inhibit showers production and at best has been met with cumulus congestus along and ahead of the front. Deep mid to upper level subsidence in the wake of the front coupled with mixing will prevent cloud cover from redeveloping. This brings sunny skies for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Ongoing breezy conditions with gusts 25 to 35 mph will cease after sunset as the stable layer settles in. For tonight, very subtle cold air advection coupled with generally clear skies (outside of periodic cirrus), will drop temperatures into the 40s for a low.

Diffuse surface high pressure alongside shortwave ridging aloft will bring another round of dry conditions tomorrow. The possible exception will be the shallow corridor of weak system relative isentropic ascent centered around h800 that will bring the low-end chance to see sprinkles or a stray shower through the afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low for measurable precipitation to constitute any PoP values above 15%. Otherwise, temperature highs return into the 70s, outside of the Tri-Cities and bordering shoreline, as northeast flow ushers cooler air inland. A stark difference along the shoreline will be felt with highs in the mid 50s.

An upper-level wave stemming from a meandering upper-low across the Central Plains will pinch off into the upper Great lakes Friday, which will amplifying the aforementioned ridge downstream across the southern Great Lakes. This will usher in temperatures that will rival today, characterized by h850 temperatures up to 15C by Friday morning. With the warmer air will come the amplified Gulf stream moisture, pushing PW values aoa 1.20 inches. A shortwave trough will capitalize on the enhanced moisture and will likely bring periods of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms, with the best chances centered Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm potential and characteristics of thunderstorms are still under question as this period falls outside the hi-res window (outside of 3km NAM). The GFS/3KM NAM showcase low-level capping and inhibit CAPE potential, while the NAM affords a period of free convection with a marginal wind threat. Modeled analogs do not highlight strong or severe storm potential which is the ongoing message at this time.

Additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist both Saturday and Sunday under the warm airmass with shallow moisture, but again capping with resident dry air in the mid-level uncertainty is high regarding upscale growth potential. The potential for unsettled weather will continue into next week with long-range models projecting the development of low pressure across the northern Plains to western portions of the midwest, which will reinforce warm and unstable conditions across the Great Lakes.

MARINE

Gusty southwest to westerly flow within the immediate wake of cold frontal passage will persist through the evening hours, before gradually diminishing with loss of daytime heating. This will maintain small craft conditions from Saginaw Bay to the lake Huron nearshore waters along the tip of the thumb. Modest wind speed from the northwest expected overnight and early Thursday as high pressure builds into the region. Winds establish an easterly component late Thursday as the high exits the region. A low pressure system is forecast to track across the northern great lakes Friday. This will draw a cold front through lower Michigan, bringing increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds holding from the southeast at less than 20 knots in advance of this front Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 115 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected this forecast with just an isolated shower possible early as nose of higher moisture plume shifts east through the area. Otherwise, just varying degrees of cirrus into Thursday with scattered diurnal cumulus again by midday Thursday.
Gusty southwest flow will veer to west and weakening into early evening and then shift to north and then east overnight into Thursday as a weak frontal boundary settles south through the area as low pressure passes to the north late today and high pressure follows.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period. .

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for crosswinds late this afternoon.

* Low for ceilings at or below 5kft early this afternoon.



DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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