Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Luna Pier, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:57PM Sunday March 29, 2020 1:41 PM EDT (17:41 UTC) Moonrise 9:12AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- 407 Am Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
.low water advisory in effect from 10 am this morning to 6 pm edt this evening...
Today..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. A slight chance of showers this afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 43 degrees, off cleveland 39 degrees, and off erie 38 degrees.
LEZ142 Expires:202003291430;;241620 FZUS51 KCLE 290807 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142-143-291430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Luna Pier, MI
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location: 41.78, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 291320 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 920 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

UPDATE.

The presence of a shallow stable layer early this morning has thus far kept wind gusts in check. The surface occlusion is now moving across Se Mi. Post frontal cooling at 850MB combined with diurnal heating (aided by some clear skies) will allow temps to rise to around 60 late this morning and early this afternoon. This should also erode the surface stable layer enough to support more efficient mixing. The result will be a spike in wind gusts. Latest model soundings with some support of upstream observations continue to suggest wind gusts of 40 to 45 MPH, particularly early this afternoon, with the higher gusts more probable south of the I-69 corridor. So this supports the current wind advisory headlines. Continued cold air advection through the course of the afternoon and evening and the advection of higher low level moisture will support falling temperatures during the later half of the day with increasing cloud cover. The low level moisture within cyclonic flow and diurnal mixing will support some afternoon and evening showers. The coverage will be higher across the Saginaw Valley and thumb region where moisture depth will be greater. Overall, the current forecast looks reasonable. Just some minor adjustments will be made to temps and pops.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 603 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

AVIATION .

Cold/occluded front is making its way through lower Michigan at press time and will work to scour out low stratus and fog this morning. A brief period of VFR and/or clearing is expected in the 12 to 16z window, followed by MVFR stratus that will persist across all terminals through the balance of the forecast period. Post-frontal southwest winds ramp up rapidly during the mid-morning, reaching sustained strength of 20 to 25 kt with gusts in excess of 30 kt - highest winds likely for PTK and south. Winds persist through the afternoon and early evening before gradually weakening tonight. Off and on light rain showers will be prevalent as moisture wraps around the expansive low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes.

For DTW . Improving ceilings and visibility are in store over the next few hours as the cold front sweeps through. Strong southwest winds develop by late morning and persist into the evening with gusts over 30 kt. Peak of wind event should occur between 18z and 00z. Light showers will occur intermittently after MVFR ceilings move in by early afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High in ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . Issued at 321 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

DISCUSSION .

Strong low pressure will lift through northern lower Michigan this morning with a cold front sweeping east through the region around the base of this feature. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will re-expand northeast across the area early in morning along/in advance of this front with significant drying then expected in its wake later in the morning. The passage of the front looks to center on 12z +/- an hour across the forecast area. Will tentatively maintain the Flood Watch over southern portions of the forecast area this morning as HiRes models suggest modest coverage of heavier convective rains early as the front approaches/passes generally between 09z-12z.

Very windy conditions will then set up by midday, especially over the southern two thirds of the forecast area where mixing will approach 5kft this afternoon. With a tight pressure gradient in place around the aforementioned low pressure, expect wind gusts to 45 mph or more from roughly I-69 southward. A Wind Advisory remains in effect today for these anticipated conditions. Will not expand the advisory any further north as a slight decrease in pressure gradient coupled with less mixing as showers/clouds wrap back into area around to low should inhibit gusts to some extent (35-40 mph during the afternoon).

Showers will dot the area much of the area with the greatest coverage expected over northern portions of the forecast area. This activity will wane quickly with the loss of daytime heating early this evening. Temperatures will peak out in the 50s to near 60 in the morning, but fall into the 40s mid to late afternoon on there way to lows in the lower to mid 40s tonight.

The next shortwave in behind this strong storm system will be shunted south and bypass the area early this week. The remainder of the week will also be relatively quiet as an upper ridge translates east into the area in response to developing upper troughing over western Canada into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will settle back into the 40s for highs early this week within mean troughing that is left over with the passage of this storm system and is held in place by some minor connection to southern stream shortwave crossing the southern Ohio Valley.

Temperatures will then climb back into the 50s as upper heights rise in respond to developing upper ridging. Shower chances will eventually return late in the week as some of jet energy pivoting around upper trough over the northwest sector of the CONUS begins to impinge to some degree on the area. That said, the upper ridging that develops mid week looks hold pretty steady over the area at least through this forecast period.

MARINE .

Low pressure will travel northeast from the Plains and will center over the Midwest this evening, allowing a warm front to push across the southern Great Lakes. Thunderstorms will be possible through the overnight hours tonight. Aside from stronger bursts of wind gusts tied to strong thunderstorms, wind direction will remain easterly, the strongest of which will be seen across northern Lake Huron.

Otherwise, wind direction will then veer southeast and southwest throughout Sunday following the passage of a cold front. A strengthening pressure gradient behind the front along with some mixing of strong low-level winds to the surface will produce a quick uptick in sustained wind speeds and gusts late Sunday morning. Strongest gusts are projected to impact Lake Erie up to Lake St Clair with the potential to see gusts anywhere between 35 to 40 knots through the day. Additional concerns for stronger wind gusts are noted for Saginaw Bay as the southwest fetch funnels down the Bay. As a result, a Gale Warning is now in effect for the aforementioned locations. Small Craft Advisories will also be in effect on Sunday for the nearshore zones along eastern Lake Huron.

HYDROLOGY .

One more batch of locally heavy rain will pivot through the area along and in advance of a cold front. This activity will focus on the early morning period and may bring around quarter of an inch or rainfall to some areas. Rain will then move east quickly during the rest of the morning with only light scattered showers re-developing this afternoon. Locally heavy early shower showers may exacerbate minor flooding in poorly drained locations. However, widespread flooding is not expected.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ060>063-068>070- 075-076-082-083.

Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for MIZ063-070.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair . Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.



UPDATE . SC AVIATION . TF DISCUSSION . DG MARINE . DG HYDROLOGY . DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TWCO1 7 mi42 min WSW 35 G 50
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 9 mi102 min SW 26 G 28 55°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 9 mi60 min WSW 23 G 39 58°F 1001.9 hPa41°F
CMPO1 24 mi132 min WSW 29 G 36 64°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 29 mi42 min WSW 36 G 42 55°F 1002.2 hPa (+1.5)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 37 mi60 min WSW 12 G 25 62°F 44°F1002.3 hPa41°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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W10
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G11
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G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI12 mi47 minWSW 23 G 3510.00 miOvercast and Windy56°F40°F58%1001.7 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI17 mi46 minWSW 21 G 3510.00 miOvercast and Breezy56°F43°F62%1002.7 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH17 mi49 minWSW 31 G 4110.00 miOvercast and Windy56°F43°F62%1003.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi47 minWSW 16 G 2910.00 miOvercast59°F43°F56%1000.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6E7E6SE10NE5E4S5E9E10
G16
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G19
E9E6E8E5E5CalmS3SW10
G17
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G23
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G24
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G33
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G29
1 day agoE7E6E4SE5SE6S4SE4E5SE5E8E7NE7NE5N5E8
G15
E7
G20
E9
G17
N13E6NE4NE9NE7
G15
N6SE8
2 days agoW11
G17
W6
G15
W4NW5NW6NW6N3NE4NE5NE8
G14
NE5N5N4NE3NE5NE5NE4NE3NE6NE7E5NE6NE7E7
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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