Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Buffalo, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:18PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:37 PM CST (21:37 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 302 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.gale warning in effect from 7 pm est this evening through late tonight...
Tonight..West wind 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knot gales. Cloudy. Slight chance of showers through midnight. Slight chance of snow showers through the night. Waves 5 to 8 feet occasionally to 10 feet.
Tuesday..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots in the morning. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 7 feet occasionally to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Chance of snow showers in the morning, then chance of flurries in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed. The water temperature off michigan city is 39 degrees.
LMZ046 Expires:201912100530;;103063 FZUS53 KIWX 092002 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 302 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-100530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Buffalo, MI
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location: 41.79, -86.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 091926 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 226 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Mild temperatures and areas of light rain will continue into this evening in advance of a cold front. Gusty winds and much colder air will filter in behind this cold front tonight into Tuesday, with temperatures on Tuesday steady in the mid 20s to low 30s. The cold air will remain in place through Wednesday night. Chances for lake effect snow showers will also enter the forecast later tonight through Wednesday, mainly across southwest Lower Michigan where light accumulations will be possible.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Areas of light rain, drizzle and fog will continue into this evening as a cold front tracks through. Temps will plummet nearly 20 degrees and winds will pick up (gusts 30-40 mph) in its wake as the southern fringe of a modified arctic airmass quickly overspreads. Temperatures will fall to 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages into Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly dry conditions anticipated for most locations.

The lake effect machine will kick in across the state of Michigan as lake-850 mb temp differentials push into the mid 20s. However, limited westerly fetch/inversion heights and quick exit of deeper moisture over southern Lake MI will definitely hamper snow amounts and impacts across southwest Lower MI. There will be a couple windows for some light snow accums however. The first being later tonight into Tuesday morning across Lower MI and far northern IN as there will be some lingering synoptic support/moisture before greater subsidence overspreads. This subsidence should lead to a lull in LES chances Tuesday afternoon-evening before a trailing secondary trough pivots through with a possible uptick later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A dusting to 2 inches of total snow accumulation (highest nrn Berrien/Cass MI/nw St Joe MI) is currently expected along/north of the Toll Road between late tonight and Wednesday evening.

LONG TERM. (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 225 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Shot of cold air will be transient with temperatures quickly recovering back to (or just above) normal late this week into the upcoming weekend. The bulk of the Thursday through Sunday periods should remain dry, though did retain low chances for rain around Saturday as a parade of pacific origin shortwaves cross the Lower 48 in fast flow.

The pattern does become more interesting into next week as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index trends slightly negative. This hints a more suppressed regime with storms less likely to cut well northwest of the local area. This could provide the opportunity for system snow somewhere across the Lower Great Lakes or Ohio Valley by early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Drier air aloft currently moving into the area and bringing an end to steady rain However. expect a few hours of drizzle through the afternoon before cold front arrives around 00Z. Ceilings may drop to around 500 ft during this period of drizzle. Strong cold air advection will lead to improving conditions overnight as mixing slowly raises ceilings above fuel-alternate criteria. There is a low chance for a few flurries at KSBN but latest forecast soundings suggest profiles will be too dry to support hydrometeors by the time west-bulb temps drop below freezing. Dry air advection will eventually scatter out low clouds but likely not until the end of this TAF period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Steinwedel SHORT TERM . Steinwedel LONG TERM . Steinwedel AVIATION . AGD

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 10 mi38 min SW 15 G 16 47°F 46°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 25 mi38 min SSW 13 G 16 44°F 998.3 hPa (-0.7)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 42 mi50 min SW 8 G 16 48°F 997.1 hPa47°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi38 min WSW 18 G 24 49°F 47°F
CNII2 46 mi23 min W 6 G 14 49°F 44°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 49 mi38 min SSW 16 G 18 43°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN7 mi43 minWSW 8 G 155.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%998 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN23 mi44 minSW 10 G 182.50 miFog/Mist48°F46°F93%998.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGC

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S11
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1 day agoS4S3S4S5S8S7S7S8
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2 days agoN7N7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S5S7S6S7S7S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.