Stony Point, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stony Point, MI

June 24, 2024 3:33 PM EDT (19:33 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM
Moonrise 10:49 PM   Moonset 7:24 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ162 Detroit River Lt. To Maumee Bay Oh To Reno Beach Oh Beyond 5nm Offshoreline To Us-canadian Border- Reno Beach To The Islands Oh Beyond 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 927 Am Edt Mon Jun 24 2024

This afternoon - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.

Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Thursday - North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Waves 2 feet or less.

Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stony Point, MI
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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 241726 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 126 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the area will continue through Tuesday before a low pressure centered over northern Quebec moves a warm front north late Tuesday followed by a cold front on Wednesday. High pressure will return to the area for the end of the work week. Another low pressure is expected to move through the region this weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
A surface trough lingering over the eastern half of the area continues to develop scattered showers this morning. With a nearly 20 degree difference between the lake and 850 mb temperatures, marginal lake induced instability has develop and allowed for a corridor of showers and lake effect clouds to push south across the area, primarily centered near Cleveland. Over the next few hours, high pressure will continue to build east, ultimately drying out the low levels and cutting off the precipitation. This high pressure will remain dominant through tonight, allowing for widespread dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Highs today will climb into the low 80s for western counties and upper 70s across eastern counties. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.

By Tuesday morning, the aforementioned high pressure will shift east towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast, allowing for a warm front associated with a low over Ontario to move north across the area. This will result in an increase of WAA across the area again. In addition, a mid-level shortwave looks to move across northern Ohio Tuesday morning which could support a decaying MCS moving into NW OH. With a fairly stable airmass in place north of the warm front, showers and storms should continue to decay into the area or should remain elevated. Confidence in any of these lingering storms becoming severe is low, however cannot rule out a rumble or two of thunder and locally heavy rainfall. By Tuesday afternoon, a LLJ of 40+ knots noses over the area which may assist the increasing WAA, synoptic forcing, and low level moisture to create additional showers and thunderstorms, although confidence is low. The evolution of these storms for the first part of Tuesday will be critical in the forecast during the short term period. To account for the potential for severe weather, SPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal Risk of severe weather and WPC has issued a Day 1 Marginal ERO across much of the area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The Tuesday night into Wednesday forecast is a very conditional shower and thunderstorm forecast for the region. The conditional nature of the forecast will be on shower and storm development over the upper Midwest on Monday night and the trajectory of any activity. If the storm complex angles southeast toward the local forecast area, then that could be an issue during the day on Tuesday and wipe out the higher extent of instability across the region for Tuesday night. There could be some recovery in this scenario, but it would be limited with the poor timing on the diurnal cycle. An alternative scenario is that storms angle west of the forecast area and the atmosphere remains warm and unstable. This would allow for other MCVs that develop on Tuesday to enter the region on Tuesday night with an environment more sustaining for showers and storms, potentially strong to severe. In the end, there is low confidence in any particular scenario at this time and there will be more clarity 24 hours from now, as ongoing convection elsewhere will help dictate which solutions are still in play. The final cold front will cross the area on Wednesday afternoon. Ahead of the front, there could be a window for additional showers and storms with intensity dependent on the environment based on what occurs on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
With the front, temperatures and dew points will fall, clouds will diminish, and winds will shift to the northwest, ending any rain threat by Wednesday evening.

Thursday and Thursday night will be a return to quiet weather with high pressure across the Great Lakes region with northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will take a dip below normal with widespread 70s and lows on Thursday night could take quite the tumble down into the 50s and even upper 40s, if generally clear skies and calm conditions allow for decoupling to occur.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday appears to be a recovery day back to hot and humid across the region with high pressure sliding east and a warm front lifting across the area. Temperatures will reach widespread 80s and dew points will recover back into the 60s by evening. Since it will take some time for moisture to recover in the region, believe that most of Friday will be dry and some glancing showers/storms could enter on Friday night as debris convection from areas further west. An upper trough and surface cold front will enter the area on Saturday and allow for showers and storms across the forecast area and have PoPs ticking back up to mid-chance to likely. There could be some concern for strong to severe convection, if timing remains favorable during the peak heating hours. The front will move out on Sunday and high pressure will build into the region allowing for dry conditions and a trend to cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/
VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with primarily VFR to persist through tonight. Low confidence TAF forecast from Tuesday morning onwards as an organized cluster of thunderstorms develops across the Upper Midwest and moves southeast tonight into Tuesday. Highest confidence of thunder exists out west at TOL/FDY with less confidence further east. Also a concern for abrupt and strong wind shifts behind the outflow/gust front from the overnight storms, though low confidence precludes any tempo mention at this time.

Winds are generally out of the north this afternoon, 5 to 8 knots, becoming variable at times further inland. Winds will shift towards the south late tonight into Tuesday morning, around 10 knots, shifting towards the southwest and increasing to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots by early Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

MARINE
The northwest flow across the lake this morning is pretty marginal with winds generally 15 kt or less (most are actually 10 kt or less)
and waves at reporting buoys are under 3 ft. Therefore, will cancel the marine headlines early with some mention for 2 to 4 ft waves through the morning hours. High pressure across the region will allow for flow to become variable today on the lake. High pressure will move east for Tuesday and return flow across the lake will be with increasing southwest flow and there could be a window for a Small Craft Advisory headline if mixing allows for winds to get to 20 kt on the lake. Offshore flow during the daytime hours on Tuesday would allow for a wind only Small Craft Advisory. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible on the lake on Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will cross the lake on Wednesday and flow will become northwest. The pressure gradient over the lake does not look impressive enough to have substantial northwest flow to allow for a great increase in waves. Flow will become variable with high pressure on Thursday. Southeast flow returns to the lake on Friday with a warm front lifting across the region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 6 mi33 minSE 4.1G5.1 73°F 29.9860°F
45165 12 mi23 minNE 3.9G7.8 74°F 79°F1 ft
TWCO1 12 mi34 min7G8.9 73°F 76°F62°F
45200 16 mi43 min7.8G9.7 74°F 81°F29.9962°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 17 mi33 minESE 5.1G6 73°F 29.98
CMPO1 18 mi63 minE 6G8.9 76°F
45202 20 mi33 min3.9G5.8 76°F 77°F1 ft29.9858°F
45201 21 mi33 min5.8G7.8 74°F 79°F1 ft30.0358°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 22 mi45 minENE 7G8.9 76°F 29.9561°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 26 mi45 minE 7G8 74°F 74°F29.9651°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 37 mi33 minS 1.9G1.9 73°F 74°F29.9857°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi33 minNE 6G8 74°F 29.95
45203 41 mi33 minN 5.8G7.8 73°F 78°F1 ft61°F
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 42 mi108 minNNE 2.9 75°F 30.0160°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 48 mi33 minE 7G8 74°F 30.00


Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI 21 sm18 minS 0910 smOvercast77°F50°F39%29.98
KTTF CUSTER,MI 21 sm18 minE 05G1610 smClear77°F57°F50%29.98
KPCW ERIEOTTAWA INTL,OH 22 sm18 minESE 05G1010 smClear81°F54°F39%29.98
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Wind History graph: ONZ
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Cleveland, OH,




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