Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stony Point, MI

KEY MESSAGES
1) A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible tonight before lake effect snow showers develop across portions of the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania late tonight through early Thursday.

2) Temperatures will trend towards and possibly slight above normal values late week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1
A cold front will move across the local area this afternoon which may allow some light rain showers to develop in eastern zones. At this point, it looks like the lower levels will be too dry for any appreciable rainfall. There may be a brief period of freezing drizzle across NW PA and possibly NE OH later tonight as temperatures fall to or below freezing behind the cold front, however there's a chance that precipitation doesn't occur at all until the better push of cold air arrives and lake effect/enhanced snow develops after midnight. Either way, any ice accumulations shouldn't amount to more than a trace with locally higher accumulations as high as one hundredth of an inch possible across the higher terrain of interior NW PA.
Opted against any headlines given the short duration and less impactful timing of freezing drizzle, but will keep an eye on the forecast through this evening.

Periods of scattered lake effect/enhanced snow showers are likely across the typical snowbelt areas of NE OH/NW PA late tonight through at least early Thursday morning. Generally expect light snowfall rates with maximum 30 to 36 hour snowfall totals of 2 to 5 inches likely across the higher terrain of inland Northwest Pennsylvania and lesser amounts elsewhere. The extended duration of snowfall will result in less impacts and headlines aren't expected at this time, although there may be periods of snow-covered roadways and/or reduced visibility in any heavier snow bands that develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2
High pressure will return to the area by the end of the week and guidance is trending drier for the weekend (although there's still at least a small chance of scattered rain/snow showers on Sunday). Despite the change in the rainfall forecast, a warming trend is expected Friday through early next week with near normal temperatures anticipated Friday and above normal high temperatures expected over the weekend and into early next week.

The gradually warming temperatures will result in a relatively gradual thaw/melt in snowpack and river ice. While minor ice jam issues cannot be ruled out over the weekend and especially next week, the thaw should be gradual enough to preclude a significant ice jam flooding risk. Heavy rainfall is not expected through early next week so the relatively dry weather will help mitigate hydro issues.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
The majority of TAF sites are VFR with a few sites MVFR due to ceilings and lowered visibility. MVFR ceilings will spread over all of the TAF sites late this evening with heights around 2kft and will persist through the TAF period. As the front passes, some lake enhanced snow showers are possible early Wednesday morning across NE OH and NW PA that could drop visibility down to MVFR.

Winds will be out of the west to northwest through the TAF period with periods of gusts during the day Wednesday. Through the morning hours, winds will be around 10 knots then start gusting around 15Z up to 20-25 knots. Gusts will continue through much of the day before subsiding late in the evening near the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in low ceilings Wednesday night through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain and/or snow showers on Sunday.

MARINE
Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered, though recent satellite imagery depicts several large cracks beginning to develop across the central basin. Winds will shift towards the west to northwest behind a cold front tonight, 18 to 22 knots, which could contribute to additional shifting of ice across Lake Erie. Quieter marine conditions are expected beginning Thursday and should persist through the weekend with offshore winds of generally 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.