Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
White Pigeon, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 5:15PM Thursday December 12, 2019 4:59 PM EST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:49PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Through early evening..South winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..South winds to 30 knots. Cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers and drizzle. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet toward daybreak.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201912130900;;254565 FZUS53 KGRR 122106 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-130900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near White Pigeon, MI
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location: 41.8, -85.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 122039 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 339 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 400 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

While temperatures will fall back below freezing overnight tonight, highs will be able to rebound once again into the 40s on Friday. Abundant cloud will prevail into this weekend with chances for rain and snow beginning Friday night and continuing through Saturday night. Dry and cold weather is ahead Sunday with highs near 30. Another system should bring snow early next week, but amounts are uncertain at this point.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 248 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Fast moving closed low aloft will continue to lift across the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes through this evening. We are just now starting to see the impact of the stacked surface low across northern IN, southern Lower MI, and northwest OH as winds become breezy. Pressure gradient relaxes during the late evening/early overnight hours to allow winds to drop back towards 5 to 10mph. The persistent southerly flow will help to bring relatively higher dewpoints into the area and thus help to keep our overnight lows in the upper 20s lower 30s. There is a small chance for patchy ground fog to develop towards sunrise Friday east of I-69, but confidence of occurrence, at this point, is too low to insert mention into forecast. Friday should be fairly mild with highs reaching into the lower to mid 40s with light southerly winds.

LONG TERM. (Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 248 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Friday evening will see a broad/disjointed trough sweep across the Plains and into the mid-Mississippi valley. The southern extent of this trough lifts north-northeastwards late Friday night into Saturday morning. This will help to send an area of precipitation northwards from the deep South into the Ohio River Valley as early as 03z. This should move in initially snow, but a rain/snow mix can't entirely be ruled out for portions of the NW Ohio. As temperatures warm through morning, snow should transition to a rain/snow mix before becoming all rain by midday. By this point in the day, the northern portion of the disjointed trough will start to move through and send precip off to the east while bringing a cold front from the west. Models disagree concerning the potential for additional precipitation along this front. Regardless, the trajectory of the front will allow for some lake response Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Much like the recent LES shower event earlier this week, conditions are not anticipated to be highly favorable for LES. Delta Ts are much lower (10-15), inversion heights are fairly low (2000-4000ft), and wind directions are more WNW which will limit lake fetch. For this reason, snowfall amounts with the lake effect have been held to a couple of tenths of an inch. Also, forecast soundings show that the DGZ mainly remains above the saturated portions of the profile which will limit the supply of ice nuclei. For this reason, I have introduced a slight chance for freezing drizzle Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is some potential for slick spots on roadways Sunday morning from this freezing drizzle primarily north of HWY 30. Lake effect is currently forecast to end around sunrise Sunday as low level winds turn out of the WSW.

Best chances to see widespread snow remains with the Monday/Tuesday system. Latest GFS shunted the surface low further south than the 00z which results in a track moving northeast along the Ohio River. Looking at the GFS ensemble, an increasing number of members are mimicking the deterministic run by clustering further southwards. Despite this southwards shift the GFS remains the northern most outlier since both the 12z EC and CMC both shifted southwards as well. The CMC is also the slowest of the solutions. Given this broad consensus of a more southwards track, I inserted a slight cool bias in the extended. The affect on the forecast is a consistent p-type of snow for the duration of the system, but also slightly lower expectations of snow amounts. This portion of the forecast and expectations will continue to be updated over the coming days.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1213 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

Continued trend of previous forecast. VFR conditions. Biggest forecast concern will be the threat of LLWS throughout the period as the boundary layer pressure gradient tightens. Have kept the LLWS throughout the entire period as the low level flow continues to strengthen. Similarly, the warm air advection over the region will produce a significant boundary layer inversion and that will add to the threat of the LLWS immediately off the surface.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Skipper SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . Lewis

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 55 mi60 min S 8.9 G 15 43°F 1021 hPa (-3.7)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 73 mi40 min S 20 G 26 43°F 25°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 76 mi66 min SSE 15 G 23 40°F 35°F1018.7 hPa27°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sturgis, Kirsch Municipal Airport, MI5 mi84 minS 14 G 1810.00 miFair38°F25°F62%1023 hPa
Haines Memorial Airport, MI11 mi84 minS 910.00 miFair38°F25°F59%1023.4 hPa
Goshen, Goshen Municipal Airport, IN23 mi2.1 hrsS 12 G 2310.00 miFair40°F25°F55%1024.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIRS

Wind History from IRS (wind in knots)
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W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5SE6CalmSE6S7SE8SE6SE10SE9S10S12
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1 day agoW8W8
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2 days agoSW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.