Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Providence, RI
December 6, 2023 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC)
Sunrise 6:56AM Sunset 4:16PM Moonrise 1:15AM Moonset 1:55PM
ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1001 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
This afternoon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. A slight chance of snow showers.
Tonight..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Fri and Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Sat through Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
This afternoon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less. A slight chance of snow showers.
Tonight..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Fri and Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft or less.
Sat through Sun..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt.
Sun night..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1001 Am Est Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over se canada begins to build S into new england today. Meanwhile, a low pres passes by well se of the 40n/70w benchmark. High pres overspreads the waters through the rest of this week. A powerful low pres may approach the waters late this weekend.
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres over se canada begins to build S into new england today. Meanwhile, a low pres passes by well se of the 40n/70w benchmark. High pres overspreads the waters through the rest of this week. A powerful low pres may approach the waters late this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
(on/off) HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBOX 061741 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1241 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023
SYNOPSIS
Snow showers have all but come to an end. Dry, but cold, weather follows this afternoon into Thursday. Tranquil and dry weather prevails Friday into early this weekend, with a steady warming trend to temperatures starting on Thursday and trending above normal Friday into this weekend. A strong frontal system for later Sunday into Monday may bring a period of downpours, gusty south winds, and possible minor coastal flooding, but specific details are not yet set in stone.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Light snow has all but ended as winds shifted to the north and northeast. The bullseye for snowfall was Rockland and Hanover MA where we saw 3.5 and 3.3 inches of snow respectively.
Previous Discussion...
Latest near term guidance and regional radar data favored slightly lower precipitation this morning. Winds remained mainly from the N early this morning, which continued to steer ocean effect showers across portions of Cape Ann, and Cape Cod. Only very light precipitation has been reported so far. Winds will need to turn more NE in order to bring these showers across more of eastern MA. Latest guidance suggested that may not occur until after 4 AM or so, but that could still be enough time for some impact on the morning commute, even if it is just poor visibility at times.
Still thinking snowfall across most of the eastern half of MA and portions of RI will generally be up to one half inch.
Locally higher amounts across portions of Norfolk and Plymouth Counties possible, but that is only a 30-50% chance of snowfall greater than 2 inches. Probabilities drop to less than 30% for 3 inches of snowfall across Plymouth County. Thus, still thinking the South Shore is where the focus of snowfall will be today.
Water temperatures still around 50 degrees, so locations along the immediate coast likely to see less snowfall this morning.
Winds turn N to NW this afternoon, which will bring a quick end to any remaining snow showers, except perhaps across Cape Cod.
By that point, temperatures should be high enough to result in mainly rainfall.
Below normal temperatures continue.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Turning colder and drier tonight into Thursday as NW winds continue. Well below normal temperatures expected, especially tonight. Mainly clear skies, except across mid and outer Cape Cod. Increasing clouds for all Thursday.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Updated: 3:20 AM
* Tranquil conditions and increasing temperatures through Saturday.
* Trending mild and mainly dry Sunday, but an approaching system could bring impactful wind, marine conditions, and rain overnight into Monday.
* Drier and potentially warmer next week.
Thursday night through Saturday: There were no major changes made to this part of the forecast. From a synoptic point of view there are increasing 500mb heights with mid-level ridging across the east and a 1030mb surface high located to the south of the region, near the island of Bermuda. WAA sets us up for warmer temperatures, a nice break from the highs of the mid-30s that we have experienced early on this week. Friday afternoon, temperatures reach into the mid-40s while on Saturday temperatures top out in the low to middle-50s. The overnight overnight temperatures are increasing too, Thursday night into Friday morning is likely the coldest morning of the long term with lows in the low to middle-20s. Gradually warmer Saturday morning in the low-30s and then upper-30s and lower-40s by Sunday morning. Ensemble guidance is still in similar agreement that Friday will more than likely be the sunnier of the two days with majority of members showing partly to mostly sunny... while Saturday trends are more clouds than sun. Either way, both days are dry. Winds are WSW Friday, becoming more southerly on Saturday.
Sunday through Monday: As advertised, this is the most active period of the forecast. From a synoptic point of view, the mid-level ridge shifts east with decreasing 500mb heights over southern New England.
An amplified trough digs south, before becoming negatively tilted, a signal for potential intensification. At the surface, there remains a good deal of uncertainty with the origin of a developing low pressure system, global guidance doesn't have a good handle on this as of yet. But as of early Sunday there is a weak low around the Great Lakes, which the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM show deepening while moving east. Parked off shore is a 1030mb high, generating a tight pressure gradient over the northeast.
A bit of better news, Sunday is beginning to look like a drier day, at least during the daylight hours. A forward shift in the timing likely to bring a multi-hazard system late Sunday night into Monday.
Keep in mind there remains a bit of uncertainty with the fine timing of the event, but what has remained consistent, the strong southerly winds, periods of heavy rain, and potentially dangerous marine conditions.
GFS, ECMWF, and GEM continue to indicated a robust LLJ with 900mb wind roughly between 70 and 90 knots. It is still to early to say how much of the wind could mix to the surface, but even a fraction would lead to fairly gusty conditions. As you could imagine the strong wind will lead to building seas, some guidance suggests some rather high waves by Monday morning. On top of dangerous conditions on the water, potential coastal flooding if max surge were to coincide with the high tide, in addition to the potential for coastal erosion. Lastly, WPC has placed much of western MA and CT in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this system. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement we will see at least 1/2 inch of rain, with modest probabilites of up to an inch west of Route 146. Even low probabilites, less than 20 percent, of 2 or more inches of rain in far western MA.
In addition, will be quite warm for early December, highs in the mid and upper-50s on Sunday, then cooling off to near normal highs on Monday near 50 degrees. More to come over the coming days, stay tuned!
Tuesday into Next week: Trending drier and slightly warmer than average, per CPC there is between a 40 and 50 percent chance for above normal average temperatures.
Highs trend in the mid-40s where as lows trend towards the mid-30s.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z update...
This afternoon...High Confidence in TAF.
Mix of VFR ceilings across southern New England this morning with pockets of MVFR towards the east coast of MA. Wind continues to become more NW through the evening with improvement to VFR.
Tonight through Thursday night...High Confidence.
VFR.NNW winds tonight 10-15 kts diminishing and becoming W on Thursday 5-10 kts. Turning NW 5-10 kts on Thursday night.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Light snow through 15z leading to periods of MVFR conditions. NNE wind becoming NNW this afternoon, then WNW overnight. CIGS becoming low end VFR by 18, then clearing out overnight.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High Confidence.
Winds and seas remained below Small Craft Advisory thresholds early this morning. However, low pressure tracking well southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark today will generate a surge of winds and higher seas later today into tonight. Expecting winds and seas to diminish by Thursday.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
EQUIPMENT
KBOX is down due to a mechanical failure. Technicians will need to assess before repairs can be completed. At this time there is no estimate for return to service.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ255.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1241 PM EST Wed Dec 6 2023
SYNOPSIS
Snow showers have all but come to an end. Dry, but cold, weather follows this afternoon into Thursday. Tranquil and dry weather prevails Friday into early this weekend, with a steady warming trend to temperatures starting on Thursday and trending above normal Friday into this weekend. A strong frontal system for later Sunday into Monday may bring a period of downpours, gusty south winds, and possible minor coastal flooding, but specific details are not yet set in stone.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Light snow has all but ended as winds shifted to the north and northeast. The bullseye for snowfall was Rockland and Hanover MA where we saw 3.5 and 3.3 inches of snow respectively.
Previous Discussion...
Latest near term guidance and regional radar data favored slightly lower precipitation this morning. Winds remained mainly from the N early this morning, which continued to steer ocean effect showers across portions of Cape Ann, and Cape Cod. Only very light precipitation has been reported so far. Winds will need to turn more NE in order to bring these showers across more of eastern MA. Latest guidance suggested that may not occur until after 4 AM or so, but that could still be enough time for some impact on the morning commute, even if it is just poor visibility at times.
Still thinking snowfall across most of the eastern half of MA and portions of RI will generally be up to one half inch.
Locally higher amounts across portions of Norfolk and Plymouth Counties possible, but that is only a 30-50% chance of snowfall greater than 2 inches. Probabilities drop to less than 30% for 3 inches of snowfall across Plymouth County. Thus, still thinking the South Shore is where the focus of snowfall will be today.
Water temperatures still around 50 degrees, so locations along the immediate coast likely to see less snowfall this morning.
Winds turn N to NW this afternoon, which will bring a quick end to any remaining snow showers, except perhaps across Cape Cod.
By that point, temperatures should be high enough to result in mainly rainfall.
Below normal temperatures continue.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
Turning colder and drier tonight into Thursday as NW winds continue. Well below normal temperatures expected, especially tonight. Mainly clear skies, except across mid and outer Cape Cod. Increasing clouds for all Thursday.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Updated: 3:20 AM
* Tranquil conditions and increasing temperatures through Saturday.
* Trending mild and mainly dry Sunday, but an approaching system could bring impactful wind, marine conditions, and rain overnight into Monday.
* Drier and potentially warmer next week.
Thursday night through Saturday: There were no major changes made to this part of the forecast. From a synoptic point of view there are increasing 500mb heights with mid-level ridging across the east and a 1030mb surface high located to the south of the region, near the island of Bermuda. WAA sets us up for warmer temperatures, a nice break from the highs of the mid-30s that we have experienced early on this week. Friday afternoon, temperatures reach into the mid-40s while on Saturday temperatures top out in the low to middle-50s. The overnight overnight temperatures are increasing too, Thursday night into Friday morning is likely the coldest morning of the long term with lows in the low to middle-20s. Gradually warmer Saturday morning in the low-30s and then upper-30s and lower-40s by Sunday morning. Ensemble guidance is still in similar agreement that Friday will more than likely be the sunnier of the two days with majority of members showing partly to mostly sunny... while Saturday trends are more clouds than sun. Either way, both days are dry. Winds are WSW Friday, becoming more southerly on Saturday.
Sunday through Monday: As advertised, this is the most active period of the forecast. From a synoptic point of view, the mid-level ridge shifts east with decreasing 500mb heights over southern New England.
An amplified trough digs south, before becoming negatively tilted, a signal for potential intensification. At the surface, there remains a good deal of uncertainty with the origin of a developing low pressure system, global guidance doesn't have a good handle on this as of yet. But as of early Sunday there is a weak low around the Great Lakes, which the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM show deepening while moving east. Parked off shore is a 1030mb high, generating a tight pressure gradient over the northeast.
A bit of better news, Sunday is beginning to look like a drier day, at least during the daylight hours. A forward shift in the timing likely to bring a multi-hazard system late Sunday night into Monday.
Keep in mind there remains a bit of uncertainty with the fine timing of the event, but what has remained consistent, the strong southerly winds, periods of heavy rain, and potentially dangerous marine conditions.
GFS, ECMWF, and GEM continue to indicated a robust LLJ with 900mb wind roughly between 70 and 90 knots. It is still to early to say how much of the wind could mix to the surface, but even a fraction would lead to fairly gusty conditions. As you could imagine the strong wind will lead to building seas, some guidance suggests some rather high waves by Monday morning. On top of dangerous conditions on the water, potential coastal flooding if max surge were to coincide with the high tide, in addition to the potential for coastal erosion. Lastly, WPC has placed much of western MA and CT in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for this system. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement we will see at least 1/2 inch of rain, with modest probabilites of up to an inch west of Route 146. Even low probabilites, less than 20 percent, of 2 or more inches of rain in far western MA.
In addition, will be quite warm for early December, highs in the mid and upper-50s on Sunday, then cooling off to near normal highs on Monday near 50 degrees. More to come over the coming days, stay tuned!
Tuesday into Next week: Trending drier and slightly warmer than average, per CPC there is between a 40 and 50 percent chance for above normal average temperatures.
Highs trend in the mid-40s where as lows trend towards the mid-30s.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z update...
This afternoon...High Confidence in TAF.
Mix of VFR ceilings across southern New England this morning with pockets of MVFR towards the east coast of MA. Wind continues to become more NW through the evening with improvement to VFR.
Tonight through Thursday night...High Confidence.
VFR.NNW winds tonight 10-15 kts diminishing and becoming W on Thursday 5-10 kts. Turning NW 5-10 kts on Thursday night.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Light snow through 15z leading to periods of MVFR conditions. NNE wind becoming NNW this afternoon, then WNW overnight. CIGS becoming low end VFR by 18, then clearing out overnight.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night through Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High Confidence.
Winds and seas remained below Small Craft Advisory thresholds early this morning. However, low pressure tracking well southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark today will generate a surge of winds and higher seas later today into tonight. Expecting winds and seas to diminish by Thursday.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.
EQUIPMENT
KBOX is down due to a mechanical failure. Technicians will need to assess before repairs can be completed. At this time there is no estimate for return to service.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-256.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ254.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ255.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KPVD THEODORE FRANCIS GREEN STATE,RI | 6 sm | 53 min | NNW 10 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 36°F | 27°F | 69% | 29.95 | |
| KSFZ NORTH CENTRAL STATE,RI | 9 sm | 48 min | NNE 08 | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 27°F | 75% | 29.93 | |
| KOQU QUONSET STATE,RI | 15 sm | 54 min | N 14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 27°F | 69% | 29.96 | |
| KUUU NEWPORT STATE,RI | 20 sm | 51 min | NNW 11G17 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 28°F | 75% | 29.92 | |
| KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA | 21 sm | 52 min | NNW 09G14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 36°F | 27°F | 69% | 29.94 |
Wind History from PVD
(wind in knots)Providence
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:14 AM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 02:21 AM EST 3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 07:25 AM EST 1.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:55 PM EST Moonset
Wed -- 02:38 PM EST 3.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:14 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EST 0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:14 AM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 02:21 AM EST 3.81 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:58 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 07:25 AM EST 1.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:55 PM EST Moonset
Wed -- 02:38 PM EST 3.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:14 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 07:53 PM EST 0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Providence, Rhode Island, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.4 |
| 1 am |
| 3.3 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 3.7 |
| 4 am |
| 3.2 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.7 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Nayatt Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:13 AM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 02:26 AM EST 3.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EST 1.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:55 PM EST Moonset
Wed -- 02:44 PM EST 3.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:14 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EST 0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:13 AM EST Moonrise
Wed -- 02:26 AM EST 3.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST Sunrise
Wed -- 07:35 AM EST 1.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:55 PM EST Moonset
Wed -- 02:44 PM EST 3.69 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:14 PM EST Sunset
Wed -- 07:56 PM EST 0.82 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 3.3 |
| 2 am |
| 3.8 |
| 3 am |
| 3.7 |
| 4 am |
| 3.1 |
| 5 am |
| 2.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 1.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.2 |
| 9 am |
| 1.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.5 |
| 11 am |
| 1.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 3 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 3.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Boston, MA,
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