Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sagamore, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 7:14PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:47 AM EDT (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:51PMMoonset 6:20AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E this afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Fri..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night and Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak high pressure over new england today, provides light winds offshore with wnw near shore. Low pressure exits the great lakes and tracks south of new england early Wednesday, then across georges bank and finally out to sea. Then a strong cold front crosses new eng Thu afternoon. Low pres develops on this front in new england, intensifying as it moves into the gulf of maine Thu night then into the maritimes Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sagamore, MA
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location: 41.83, -70.55     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 071101 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 701 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains in control Tuesday with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine, spring-like temperatures and a modest NW breeze. Later Tuesday night, a warm front will spread a period of light rains across most of southern New England. A fast moving low will develop along that warm front and bring a period of rain through Wednesday. Another system moves in Thursday bringing more rain and scattered thunderstorms. Scattered shower activity is possible Thursday night through Friday. Drier weather for the weekend before our next wet weather system early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

7 am update .

Those in western MA/CT into central MA and portions of RI are already seeing sunny skies at sunrise this morning. The mid/high cloud deck hanging over eastern MA will continue to clear from north to south as mid level moisture moves off. No big changes to the forecast with this morning's update.

Previous Discussion .

Today .

Another very nice day ahead with spring like temperatures and dry weather. This is courtesy of NW flow aloft. Short wave energy crossing the region this morning will result in mid and high clouds impacting the area. However as this jet energy exits mid/high clouds will move offshore later this morning and give way to mostly sunny conditions this afternoon across the entire region.

Seasonable temperatures aloft, about 0C at 850 mb. However model soundings indicate boundary layer extending up to about 750 mb this afternoon, courtesy of NW flow aloft. This will result in temperatures overachieving with highs in the low to mid 60s, even a few spots possible into the upper 60s given downslope with NW winds 10-15 mph but gusting 20-25 mph at times. Despite a weak pressure gradient this deep boundary layer with modest NW winds thru the column will also preclude seabreeze development so just as warm into Boston and Providence as interior locations and probably all the way to the Cape Cod Canal. The outer Cape and Islands likely have a cooling SW wind so cooler conditions there. Elsewhere NW winds combined with boundary layer extending up to 750 mb will result in drier air aloft mixing to the surface, so expecting RH values to drop considerably this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/. Tonight .

Weak pressure gradient, mostly clear conditions and cooling boundary layer after sunset should promote temps to fall quickly during the evening hours. However second half of the night clouds will increase as short wave trough and associated surface low approach in the NW flow aloft. Rain then likely overspreads the area 06z-12z from west to east. Models have trended colder especially the 00z NAM with column potentially cold enough to support a period of wet snow around 12z across the high terrain of northern MA and possibly into northwest Middlesex county. Given how dry the antecedent airmass is across the region today into tonight, evaporational cooling maybe sufficient for a period of wet snow. NAM and other HREF members indicate potential period of wet snow. In addition there could be a period of heavier precip toward 12z in response to moderate to strong deformation axis forming as 850 mb low tracks across the area. Will have to watch how later model runs trend regarding thermal profiles and precip intensity. If heavier precip doesn't materialize or shifts farther south away from the high terrain, then any snow is less likely.

Wednesday .

Periods of rain likely in the morning along with a risk of some wet snow across higher terrain of MA including Worcester per aforementioned above. Drying trend in the afternoon as frontal wave departs offshore. Although light cool NE flow likely precludes much if any afternoon sunshine, best chance late in the day. Thus mostly cloudy and cool with highs only 45-50, low 50s CT river valley.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. * Widespread rain Thursday with scattered thunderstorms

* Lighter rain and high elevation snow on Friday with a few rumbles of thunder possible

* Potential for minor coastal flooding Wednesday to Friday around high tide across the east coast of MA and Nantucket. See the Tides and Coastal Flooding section below for more details.

* Temperatures running near to below normal through Saturday then a warm up

Details .

Wednesday night .

High pressure ridge briefly takes control Wednesday night keeping things dry and allowing for partial clearing skies early on. However, low level moisture fills back in toward midnight and beyond, so low level cloudcover will be on the increase. This should help keep temperatures in the upper 30s. High astronomical tides will contribute to a chance for some splashover or minor coastal flooding issues along the east coast for several tide cycles from Wednesday night through at least Thursday night. See the Tides/Coastal Flooding section below for details.

Thursday .

Thursday will be the most active weather day of the mid-late week period as a strong storm system passes over New England, strengthening as it does. At the synoptic scale we see a sprawling upper level low and sfc reflection move into the Great Lakes region early Thursday morning, spawning a secondary triple point low over or near southern New England. This system bring plenty of moisture, very good dynamics, and some elevated instability to boot. Ahead of the low a very strong 45-55kt 850 mb LLJ moves overhead (2-3 standard deviations stronger than average) pulling in a plume of moisture on southerly flow. PWATs approach 1" while dewpoints may get into the low 50s. There remains some discrepancy on exact low placement and extent of moisture advection among the guidance but the potential is good for a very moist and dynamic system. A robust vortmax, strong LLJ, and approaching cold front will lead to widespread heavy rain; up to a half inch is likely, with locally higher amounts before mid/upper level dry air surges in behind the cold front. The front moves offshore sometime in the evening or early overnight hours. I've added a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday as well, with such a dynamic system, some instability, and ample shear. It starts with several hundred J/kg CAPE in western MA/CT late morning shifting east through the afternoon. Mid level lapse rates are favorable, near 7C/kg while the strong LLJ contributes to 0-6 km bulk shear values >70 kts.

Friday .

Guidance has begun to come into better agreement as to how quickly the low then lifts out into ME overnight and into Canada Friday. Meanwhile the upper trough remains overhead keeping cyclonic flow in place as wraparound moisture and a strong westerly LLJ brings a resurgence of lighter rain showers and even high elevation snow on Friday. Best chance for showers and even a few rumbles of thunder comes during the afternoon as diurnal heating and the cold pool aloft contribute to some marginal instability, though the shear is very much lacking by then. High temperatures reach into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Saturday through Monday .

The weekend looks drier as a ridge of high pressure makes its way overhead. Going with a blend of guidance we can expect dry weather through the weekend before our next storm potential comes early next week. Temperatures top out near normal on Saturday, in the low 50s, but another warm up is ahead. Southerly flow out ahead of the early week trough will bring a few days of more mild temps beginning Sunday approaching 60, and into the low 60s by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12Z Update .

Today . high confidence.

VFR and dry weather. Light W-NW wind but increasing later this morning 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt per model soundings. This will likely preclude seabreeze development except over the outer Cape and Islands.

Tonight . High confidence but some uncertainty on precipitation type toward 12z Wednesday.

VFR to start the evening but then lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR 06z-12z from west to east as rain overspreads the region. Rain may mix with or change to snow briefly toward 12z Wed across northern MA. Winds becoming NE late.

Wednesday . high confidence on trends lower on exact timing.

A mix of MVFR/IFR in morning rain possibly wet snow over northern MA. Mainly MVFR in the afternoon along with a drying. Modest NE winds.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in the TAF. WNW winds likely persist with gusts up to 20 kt late morning into the afternoon, keeping seabreeze just offshore.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in the TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, chance TSRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Today . high confidence.

Weak high pressure provides light winds except near shore where WNW winds 10-15kt gusts up to 20 kt. Dry weather and good vsby.

Tonight . high confidence but lower on exact details.

Weak fast moving low pressure exits the Great Lakes and moves across southern New England, accompanied by periods of rain toward morning.

Wed . high confidence but lower on exact details.

Low pressure over the area in the morning exits offshore in the afternoon. Despite weak NE winds a drying trend and improving vsbys excepted in the afternoon.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER. Min Relative humidities are expected to fall to 20 to 30 percent this afternoon away from the coastline. This combined with WNW winds 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph along with dry weather will yield an elevated fire weather concern. Thus will continue the Special Weather Statement that was issued last evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Astronomical tides are on the rise (across multiple tidal cycles) this week with the upcoming Supermoon. Stevens Institute indicates both tide cycles on Wed (midday and midnight) across eastern MA may experience minor coastal flooding. Then Thu with southerly flow the south coast could become the focus.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/BW NEAR TERM . Nocera/BW SHORT TERM . Nocera LONG TERM . BW AVIATION . Nocera/BW MARINE . Nocera/BW FIRE WEATHER . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 12 mi17 min 43°F1 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 17 mi62 min W 5.1 52°F 1013 hPa24°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 22 mi47 min 48°F 45°F1012.8 hPa (+0.3)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 27 mi67 min
CHTM3 33 mi59 min NNW 4.1 G 12 53°F 50°F1012.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 34 mi47 min 50°F 46°F1013.3 hPa (+0.4)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 34 mi47 min WNW 8.9 G 12 50°F 1013.1 hPa (+0.3)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi57 min WNW 9.7 G 9.7 44°F 2 ft1012 hPa (+0.0)31°F
FRXM3 35 mi47 min 50°F 30°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 36 mi57 min W 7.8 G 9.7 45°F 43°F2 ft1011.8 hPa (+0.0)34°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 39 mi47 min W 9.9 G 11 1014.2 hPa (+0.7)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 43 mi47 min 50°F 47°F1013.1 hPa
PRUR1 43 mi47 min 53°F 28°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 44 mi62 min NW 7 53°F 1013 hPa30°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 44 mi47 min NNW 6 G 13 53°F 1013.8 hPa (+0.5)
PVDR1 44 mi47 min WNW 9.9 G 13 53°F 1013.3 hPa (+0.3)28°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi53 min 53°F 43°F1011.5 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 45 mi47 min NW 8.9 G 13 50°F 46°F1013 hPa (+0.7)
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi47 min NW 7 G 11
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 47 mi47 min NW 8 G 8.9 51°F 40°F1013.3 hPa (+0.5)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 48 mi103 min NW 9.7 G 9.7 44°F 42°F3 ft1010.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 48 mi47 min WNW 8.9 G 11 53°F 46°F1013.5 hPa (+0.5)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA11 mi55 minW 810.00 miA Few Clouds51°F26°F38%1012.4 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi62 minNW 810.00 miFair54°F23°F30%1013.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi51 minNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F21°F29%1012 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA20 mi72 minW 510.00 miFair50°F26°F40%1012.5 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi51 minW 810.00 miFair49°F33°F55%1012.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA24 mi54 minWNW 11 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F24°F34%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPYM

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10--E10NE9E8NE6SE8S9
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S8S7S4S3CalmCalmCalmW3W4W3CalmSW3W3W4W8
1 day agoCalm3CalmSW8S7S7S11
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S9S6S7S6SW6S7SW7SW5SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmN5NW6N13
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2 days agoN10
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NE11NE9NE7NE5CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Bournedale, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:51 AM EDT     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 10:55 AM EDT     7.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     -0.95 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT     7.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.34.831.1-0.3-0.70.11.73.65.67.17.675.73.91.90.1-0.9-0.60.82.74.86.67.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:15 AM EDT     -4.78 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:20 AM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:22 AM EDT     4.62 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:37 AM EDT     -0.12 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:36 PM EDT     -5.04 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:44 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:50 PM EDT     4.87 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:10 PM EDT     -0.22 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:35 PM EDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-4.8-4.6-3.7-1.92.744.64.53.92.6-2.2-4-4.9-5-4.4-31.83.84.74.94.53.61.5-3.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.