Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Staatsburg, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Discussion:

UPDATE
As of 128 AM EDT...High pressure is centered over upstate NY and PA early this morning with clear skies and light to calm winds. Temps have fallen off into the 20s and 30s with a few lower 40s in the mid Hudson Valley. Cirrus clouds are increasing over w-central NY based on the IR imagery and observations. We start to increase some high clouds west northwest of the Capital Region after sunrise. Due to radiational cooling lows will be in the 20s and 30s with the coldest readings in the southern Adirondacks. We lowered mins a few degrees there.

Previous discussion...

Today...high pressure will shifts east off the coast with a warmer southerly flow developing around the departing high. So after a chilly start to the day, temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 60s in lower elevations in the afternoon. Winds will also gradually increasing with gusts of 20-30 mph developing during the afternoon. Clouds will increase ahead of a warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley region. The warm front may bring some light showers to areas north/west of Albany. Most of the day looks to be dry for much of the area though, especially from Albany south.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Messages:

- High confidence in well above normal temperatures Saturday.

- Medium chances(30-70%) for showers with a low chance(20-30%)
for thunderstorms on Saturday north/west of Albany ahead of a cold front.

Discussion:

A warm front sets up mainly across northern NY Fri night, which is where the main forcing will be. Will mention dry conditions from around Albany south/east, with showers and a few thunderstorms likely over the W. Adirondacks. Guidance continues to show steep lapse rates aloft (700-500 mb lapse rates of 7-8 degC/km), evident of an EML. Would not be surprised to see some small hail with some of the thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be much milder ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Sat, our area will be in a warm sector ahead of an cold front approaching from the lower Great Lakes. Have limited likely PoPs Sat morning to far NW areas closer to the cold front. Temperatures will get quite warm ahead of the cold front with a gusty SW breeze around 20-30 mph developing during the afternoon. NBM probs for highs > 75F are 60-90% in lower elevations from around the Hudson Valley south. There is a slight chance for some thunder north/west of Albany as SBCAPE forecast to be in the 300-700 J/Kg range. Severe storms are not anticipated due to limited instability, although a few stronger winds gusts cannot be ruled out with a decent westerly jet ~40-50 kt at 850 mb.

A few lingering showers/T-storms may occur into Sat evening as the cold front continues to move through. However, due to diurnal effects and limited forcing, precip chances will gradually diminish. The cold front should be south/east of the area by late evening, with subsidence and cold advection commencing overnight. Temperatures will fall to the lower 30s in the Adirondacks to upper 40s south of Albany by early Sun morning.

Sun looks dry with slightly below normal temperatures as high pressure builds east across the Great Lakes. With the high centered to our west through the day, there will be a persistent NW breeze gusting 20-30 mph at times.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key Message:

- Showers increase late Monday into early Tuesday with a 20-40% chance of at least 0.25" rainfall north of the Capital Region.

Discussion:

High pressure over our area Sun night shifts east off the coast on Mon. Dry conditions should persist through Mon morning, with chances for showers increasing Mon afternoon into Mon night as a frontal system approaches from the west. The primary cyclone is forecast to track from the upper Great Lakes into SE Canada Mon night into Tue. The system's occluded front moves through early Tue with showers gradually ending. Temperatures look to be near normal Mon/Tue with a southerly breeze.

Short wave ridging aloft and surface high pressure move in Tue night into Wed with fair/seasonable conditions. Another system may approach Wed night into Thu, but there is low confidence in rain chances with considerable spread in the model guidance.
Temperatures look to warm to slightly above normal levels by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06z Saturday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning with the expectation for such to remain steady throughout the duration of the 06z cycle. With high pressure in place, precipitation will scarcely be an issue outside of a few light showers possible at KGFL and KPSF late in the afternoon/early in the evening ahead of an incoming warm front. But ample dry air in the low levels may mitigate anything actually reaching the ground. Still, with the probability for precipitation being greatest at these two locations, input PROB 30 groups into their TAFs. Otherwise, winds will remain primarily southerly with speeds beginning under 10 kt but gradually increasing throughout the day to range from 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER
For today, minimum RH values should not be as low as Thursday with 30-45% expected. Southerly winds will be increasing during the afternoon, with gusts of 20-30 mph developing, but the strongest gusts may not occur until later in the day when RH values are beginning to recover. Additionally, there could be a few showers around this afternoon, especially north of I-90.
Therefore, it appears conditions will not be quite as conducive for fire spread compared to today.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.