Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Perry, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 131020 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 620 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure builds in from the west today, centered over the area by Tuesday morning. A low pressure system is expected to move across the lower Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Scattered showers developed along some enhance moisture convergence along the Lake Erie shore early Monday night, mainly in Erie and Lorain counties. This area of showers has since moved southeast into portions of Stark, Portage, and Mahoning counties, lingering over these areas for another hour or two before dissipating. Scattered clouds expected to continue across the area through this morning. Some patchy fog may be possible, mainly towards portions of central Ohio where dew point depressions are lowest.

An upper level trough will swing southeast across the eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon. Marginal instability will be in place, with generally less than 500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the trough. This should be enough for some isolated showers to develop during the daytime hours. Otherwise, slightly below normal temperatures are expected today, with high temperatures in the mid 70s in northwest Pennsylvania to upper 70s and low 80s elsewhere. Low dew points (at least for this time of year) in the upper 50s to near 60 should allow for mostly pleasant conditions.

For tonight, upper-level ridging and a subsequent 1018 mb surface high builds in from the west, resulting in clearing skies and cooler temperatures, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. By Tuesday afternoon, the high pressure center will be located over Pennsylvania, briefly allowing southerly winds to develop and advect slightly warmer temperatures into the region, with highs in the mid to upper 80s in northern Ohio and upper 70s in northwest Pennsylvania.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Ridging aloft will build in from the western Great Lakes with surface high pressure centered over Lake Erie on Tuesday Night. The weather will remain quiet into Wednesday with high pressure still predominant. Raised temperatures a couple degrees on Wednesday with the expectation of mostly sunny skies with southwest flow, however flow is weak enough that we could see a lake breeze develop in the afternoon. Still anticipate temperatures notably warmer than Tuesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s and some 90s in the northwest counties. A break comes Wednesday Night into Thursday as a progressive northern stream shortwave moves over the upper lakes driving a cold front into the area. Some question on timing as this feature is just now on the west coast and could slow down as it progresses east. Have slowed the onset of precip slightly Wednesday night, not bringing chances in across the whole area until Thursday. With the front projected to be over/near the area on Thursday have the highest pop in the forecast during this time. Temperatures will be still hot in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. The shortwave will push northeast and the upper level flow will become more zonal for Thursday Night into Friday. Any post frontal cooling will be minimal with temperatures still projected to be around 90 for Friday. Models hint at upstream convection which could move into the area, but predictability of this for the local area is challenging. Will keep at least isol/sct convection for Friday for diurnal convection at the very least.

Building heat thereafter with heights rising and return flow at the surface. H850 temperatures are projected to reach 20C Friday night and warm even more on Sunday as the ridge builds. Surface temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, possible mid to upper 90s in areas on Sunday if conditions hold. The return flow will push dewpoints back into the 70s for the weekend, increasing heat index values around 100F. Low confidence on the amount and timing of convection, but set up for direct impacts from MCSs will grow over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/. Patchy MVFR fog being observed on satellite imagery towards central Ohio, with MVFR fog being observed at KMFD right now. This should dissipate before the 12Z TAF start time.

Isolated showers are expected to develop later this afternoon, mainly around KFDY, KMFD, and KCAK, where MVFR conditions could be possible if any of those isolated showers move directly over any of the terminals. Outside these isolated showers, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Light and variable winds this morning will give way to about 5-8 knots of predominantly west to northwest flow during the daytime hours. Winds become light and variable once again tonight.

Outlook . Occasional non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Wednesday night through Friday.

MARINE. Northeast 10kt winds overnight pushed water levels up at TOL briefly. Winds will back more to the north today with gusts around 15 kts and gradually subside tonight as high pressure builds more overhead. The gradient will be weaker on Tuesday with winds less gusty with high pressure centered overhead. A front will approach the area Thursday and stall just south of the lake into Friday bringing the next chance for storms. The front will lift north as a warm front on Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Saunders NEAR TERM . Saunders SHORT TERM . Jamison LONG TERM . Jamison AVIATION . Saunders MARINE . Jamison

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	8 mi	45 min	N 8.9 G 9.9	69°F	78°F		1012.8 hPa	63°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	10 mi	63 min	N 7 G 12	85°F
45164	29 mi	33 min			75°F	1 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	32 mi	45 min	NE 8 G 8.9	68°F	74°F		1013.1 hPa	60°F
45132 - Port Stanley	44 mi	93 min	NW 7.8 G 12	66°F	73°F	1 ft	1011.7 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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NE12

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W9 G12

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S9 G12

S8 G11

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S6 G9

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NW24

NW26

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	24 mi	48 min	N 0	20.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	63°F	60°F	94%	1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)

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NE9

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W12 G21

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NW12 G20

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NW12 G22

W14 G21

W11 G22

W16 G24

W18 G26

W14 G22

W18 G25

W11 G20

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S10

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W9 G20

W13 G18

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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