Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Perry, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221438 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 938 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over Quebec will continue to move eastward through the morning as a reinforcing surge of colder air moves across the region through early afternoon. High pressure builds east across the Great Lakes Saturday through Sunday. Low pressure moves east across Ohio Valley on Monday and Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Snow showers continue across Northeast Ohio and inland Northwest Pennsylvania this morning, with the heaviest squalls affecting Crawford County, PA. Heaviest snow so far have been noted at Meadville (GKJ) with 1/4 mile visibilities and some snow-covered roads across the area. Some area cameras showed I-79 snow covered as well near Meadville. Snow showers will lessen in intensity through the morning hours, before transitioning to scattered lake effect snow this afternoon and evening.

Previous Discussion . The most intense lake enhanced snow showers will move across the CWA mainly near and east of a line from Sandusky to Millersburg through the morning. We may need to issue a few special weather statements to cover them as they progress southeast with the boundary. It then looks as if we will see a lull in the snow shower activity until late afternoon. There will still be lake enhanced snow showers but it doesnt appear the lower and middle level flow becomes better aligned until late afternoon into tonight. This is when the coldest air also arrives (-15 to -18 at 850 mb). Still looks like we may avoid headlines for the snow but will have to monitor for a connection off of Lake Huron developing tonight. If this materializes we may need to nudge snow amounts up across portions of NW PA. Later shifts will need to monitor this potential. Highs may be around 30 today but the wind will make it feel like it is in the teens. Cooler tonight with skies likely clearing across the western CWA. Lows will range from the lower teens to around 20.

Lake effect snow showers will continue across extreme NE OH into NW PA as the northwesterly flow continues. The main area of snow will be focused over NW PA but the Huron connection, if it develops, will begin to shift into western NY. This occurring as high pressure builds into the western CWA. There should be sunshine across the west that will attempt to spread into extreme NE OH as we approach sunset. Highs on Saturday will be in the 20's.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Slight amplification of the upper level ridge over the local area will take place during this period as an upper level trough digs into the western United States. The upper level ridge will result in surface high pressure that is progged to move east across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region Saturday night. Cold air advection will begin to wane Saturday night in northwest flow becoming southwest due to the passage of the surface high over the area. The cold air advection will keep lingering lake effect snow showers over the northeast during, at least, the first half of the night. Shifting mean flow will quickly dissipate the lake effect threat by Sunday morning. Warming at 850 mb will also take place Saturday night from a minimum of -11 degrees C during the evening to -8 degrees C by Sunday morning. The upper level trough over the Rockies by Sunday afternoon will initiate surface low pressure development in the vicinity of the Oklahoma Panhandle. This surface low will spawn frontogenesis in the form of a warm front extending northeast toward the forecast area Sunday afternoon. Moisture associated with the warm front will begin to push into the local area Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. The surface low will move northeast to the Ohio Valley by Monday evening but it appears warm front will remain south of the forecast area. Development of low pressure will take place off the coast of Virginia and the energy from the Ohio Valley low will shift to the East Coast by Tuesday morning. This overall pattern will result in snow spreading into the area Sunday north of the warm front and then a better chance by Monday into Monday night as the low pressure system moves into the Ohio Valley. The cold air advection will drop temperatures into the teens across the area Saturday night. But, as cold air advection subsides Sunday, temperatures will recover back to the lower and middle 30s west to middle and upper 20s east. Lows Sunday night and Monday night should remain in the upper teens east to middle 20s elsewhere. Highs Monday in the middle 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. An upper level trough will move slowly east out of the Rocky Mountains across the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes by the end of this period. Amplification of an upper level ridge will take place over the Plains States Wednesday and Wednesday night pushing the trough east of the area by Thursday evening. The upper level trough will continue to push the surface low pressure over the Ohio Valley Monday night further east and absorb it with the developing low pressure system over the Virginia coast. The low will be replaced by a very large area of high pressure centered over James By by Tuesday night extending a ridge south to the Gulf Coast states. The surface high will be the dominating weather feature during this forecast period. The only fly in the ointment will be the secondary development of low pressure from the persistent upper level trough moving east out of the Middle Mississippi Valley region. The surface low is progged to develop over the Mississippi Delta region Wednesday night and make an attempt to move north- northeast. However, strong high pressure to the north will suppress northward advancement. Moisture associated with this system has the potential to move north into the forecast area resulting in a minimal chance of precipitation over the area. I think in the end, the high will be too strong for the precipitation to make it into our area and the need to push precipitation further south will likely take place in time. Otherwise, fair weather will be the rule. Temperatures will be fairly steady in the lower 30s each day with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s overnight.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. Cold front is about half way across Lake Erie as of 1130Z. Ceilings will lower as the front arrives with MVFR conditions expected. Snow showers are already developing along the boundary over the lake and could be locally heavy across NE OH into NW PA through the morning. Attempted to time this band of snow across the eastern TAF sites through the morning. There will be brief IFR conditions with the morning snow. Ceilings will likely level off around 2500 feet from Mid Ohio into NW PA this afternoon with ceilings likely lifting to low end VFR across the NW OH. VFR looks likely across the west tonight.

West to southwest have decreased for the overnight but a sporadic gust of 20 knots is possible. Expect winds to increase to 20 to 25 knots and shift more northwesterly by 12Z and remain that direction into the afternoon behind the cold front.

Outlook . Non-VFR in lake effect snow showers across NE OH/NW PA through Saturday. Non-VFR possible once again with snow Sunday night through Tuesday, some mixed precipitation is possible Monday.

MARINE. Surface low pressure will be moving east of the area but the strong gradient in the wake of the low will result in continuous gusty winds over the lake. Small craft advisories will remain in place through Saturday as winds diminish fairly quickly Saturday night. Low pressure will approach the area Monday and this will set-up a northeast flow over the lake. Winds should increase again Monday and will likely need another small craft advisory Monday and Monday night. Surface low will shift to the Virginia coast Tuesday allowing high pressure to extend a ridge south over the lake. Winds will diminish by Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ147>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145-146.

SYNOPSIS . MM NEAR TERM . Kahn/MM SHORT TERM . Lombardy LONG TERM . Lombardy AVIATION . MM MARINE . Lombardy

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	8 mi	64 min	WNW 21 G 26	33°F	34°F		1009.7 hPa	25°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	10 mi	88 min	NW 20 G 22
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	32 mi	64 min	WNW 17 G 22	32°F	38°F		1011.3 hPa	21°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	24 mi	73 min	WNW 9 G 21	10.00 mi	Overcast	30°F	25°F	80%	1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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