Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Perry, OH

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Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 262023 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 323 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure over Ontario will reach northern New England tonight. The low will leave a surface trough across the southern Great Lakes that will drop south across the region on Monday. High pressure will build in for the middle of the week. A stronger upper level trough may bring unsettled weather by the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. A low pressure system just north of the eastern Great Lakes region will continue to slowly move eastward towards northern New England tonight. Several spokes of mid level energy will continue to rotate on the back side of the slow moving upper level low while it pulls away from the region. One piece of that energy is starting to move across southern Michigan and southern Ontario late this afternoon. Radar has shown an uptick of echoes associated with snow showers developing with this mid level support. We will continue to see these snow showers become move widespread through the evening for northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania.

The main challenges for the next 36 hours will be how much of this snowfall will be able to accumulate given the relatively mild ground temperatures and actual air temperatures hovering around or just above freezing. The other challenge will be if we lose clouds ice for a period of time and we get drizzle or even freezing drizzle instead of snow showers. Lake enhanced snow showers will be likely down wind of the lake, especially for the favored primary Snowbelt of far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania tonight into Monday morning. A weak surface trough will move across the lakeshore by early Monday morning with a shift of the winds to move westerly to northwesterly on Monday. We will likely see several inches of wet snowfall for the inland areas of the primary Snowbelt with the highest amounts expected in northern Geauga County and inland Erie County where 2 to 5 inches of snowfall could be possible. We will hold off on any possible advisory at this time given uncertainty that this wet snowfall will cause impacts and mainly accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Temperatures will not change much during the next 36 hours with only a wobble of a few degrees expected. Temperatures will fall down into lower 30s to around 30 for tonight and only climb back up to the middle 30s on Monday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Lake effect precipitation will continue Tuesday morning and taper off by the afternoon as drier air will replace low level moisture. Previous discussion opted for snow/freezing drizzle, however with the update kept it as chance of rain/snow mix as temperatures slightly warmed from prior model runs. Will continue to monitor with future model runs. Two weak shortwave troughs will move southeast across the area. The first and weakest will be on Tuesday afternoon. With limited forcing over the area, kept dry conditions on Tuesday. The second shortwave will move through on Wednesday afternoon. Models suggest a track further southwest than prior models, so went with a primarily dry forecast for Wednesday, however a few showers in the southwest portion of the area cannot be ruled out. Will be more confident as models become more consistent on the location. A ridge builds over the area on Thursday and dry conditions will persist. Temperatures will be near average through the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Ridging and associated dry conditions will persist through Friday afternoon as a low pressure begins to develop west of the Great Lakes region. Large amount of uncertainty continues to exist as models try to resolve the split flow regime across the country for Friday afternoon into the weekend. Have trended the forecast to increase PoPs Saturday morning through the afternoon and diminish east to west on Sunday. Temperatures will again rise to above average with highs in the upper 30s/low 40s on Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/. The concern for aviation with this TAF update for the next 24 to 30 hours will be the low ceilings and scattered snow showers developing, especially near the lakeshore and downwind of Lake Erie. Widespread IFR conditions are being observed across northern Ohio into NW Pennsylvania. These IFR ceilings will continue through most of the TAF period for most of the locations. There is some potential for LIFR tonight for a couple TAF sites like MFD, maybe CAK and YNG as well. Lake effect snow showers will develop late this afternoon and lingering through tonight into Monday morning. Visibilities will likely drop between 2sm to 5sm under snow showers with some intensity maybe down to 1sm in the primary Snowbelt. Conditions will improve to MVFR outside of the primary Snowbelt by Monday morning. Winds will remain southwesterly to westerly 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of 20 knots this afternoon and tonight. Winds will relax to around 10 knots by Monday morning.

OUTLOOK. Widespread non-VFR likely Monday into Wednesday.

MARINE. Southwest winds will persist for the remainder of today into the early morning hours on Monday, with strongest winds expected this evening around 25 knots. No changes to the Small Craft Advisory with this update, however with the later update the western most area may be dropped as the strongest winds and highest waves will likely shift eastward. Winds will become northwest by Monday afternoon and remain near 10 knots or less as a trough moves across the lake. Winds will shift to northeasterly by Wednesday night as high pressure moves in from the south over the lake and persist through Friday afternoon. Low pressure developing west of the Great Lakes may cause winds to become southerly by Friday evening, however there is great uncertainty between models with the development of the next system. Winds are expected to remain from 5 to 10 knots from Wednesday night through the end of the period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ145>149.

SYNOPSIS . Griffin NEAR TERM . Griffin SHORT TERM . Campbell LONG TERM . Campbell AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . Campbell

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH	8 mi	48 min	WSW 23 G 24	34°F	35°F		1009.2 hPa	34°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH	10 mi	96 min	WSW 13 G 19	42°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH	32 mi	54 min	WSW 8.9 G 17	35°F	37°F		1009.6 hPa	30°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH	24 mi	81 min	WSW 12 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	34°F	30°F	87%	1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH

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