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LEZ147 Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh-conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 916 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 41 degrees, off cleveland 44 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 082044 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 344 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure centered over the upper Midwest will track northeast into Ontario tonight. A secondary, stronger low will develop over the region on Saturday and move a cold front east Saturday night into Sunday. A trough lingers through Sunday before high pressure moves eastward into the region for the start of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
A deepening trough over the western portion of the US has continued to strengthen a surface low centered over the upper Midwest this afternoon. This has resulted in the CWA being located in the warm sector of the low, increasing WAA and moisture advection today. As a result, temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 50s. In addition, the low has extended a LLJ of 40-45 knots across much of the area which has allowed for sustained winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph. The strongest winds are primarily west of I71 and should generally weaken after sunset due to a period of stabilization and reduced mixing tonight. With cloud cover expected to become more widespread, low temperatures overnight are expected to remain mild, only dropping into the mid 40s to low 50s.

By Saturday morning, a secondary low develops over the western Great Lakes region which is expected to strengthen as it tracks northeast towards Ontario on Saturday. This will result in the next chance of widespread rain showers to occur with initial onset expected Saturday morning and spreading east throughout the day as the cold front pushes east. Coupled with support from the cold front itself, an upper level surge of energy and support from a strong jet of 120-125 knots at 300 mb, plus PWAT values of 0.7-0.9" will result in the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The axis of greatest moisture has shifted slightly south which should keep the greatest potential of flooding south of the area where WPC has highlighted the Ohio River Valley in a Day 2 marginal ERO. Cannot rule out localized ponding on roads and low lying areas, but overall impacts should remain minimal.

In addition to flood potential, strong synoptic forcing with marginal mesoscale forcing will allow for a period of thunderstorms potential, primarily between 21Z Saturday to 03Z Sunday. If there is a delay in the onset of precipitation, instability may be able to climb and result in thunder potential sooner, but with extensive cloud cover expected opted to not put this in the forecast at this point. A strong LLJ of 50-55 knots will aid in support for the storm development and will also result in strong southerly winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph locally. The greatest potential for strong winds will again be west of I71, but with unfrozen ground and heavy rainfall possible, cannot rule out tree damage and possible power outages with these winds. To close out Saturday, highs will climb into the upper 50s, possibly touching into the 60s which will flirt with temperatures records for the day.

On Saturday night, the cold front will depart to the east allowing for showers to gradually diminish from west to east, although for the near term period, much of the area will likely still be receiving rain. Winds will weaken behind the front to be 5-10 mph from the west. Overnight lows will be a bit cooler as well, dropping into the mid 30s to low 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Lingering rain behind a cold front (aka "anafrontal" rain) will likely be ongoing from eastern OH into PA early Sunday. With much drier air advecting in from the west as jet support departs to the east expect mainly dry conditions out of the gate across Northwest and North Central OH, with rain gradually departing our eastern counties into the afternoon as well. Generally expecting precip to exit before it becomes cold enough to change to snow on Sunday, though if it's slower to exit the higher terrain of Northeast OH and Northwestern PA may try ending as a bit of snow. Temperatures Sunday will be nearly steady between the mid 30s and lower 40s if not falling gradually, with cloud cover and cold air advection working against any diurnal warming. With models continuing to trend weaker and farther east with low pressure along the East Coast the gradient won't be all that strong over our area on Sunday. It will be a bit breezy but gusts look like they'll remain in the 15 - 25 MPH range.

The upper-level trough axis will move overhead Sunday night into Monday, with a couple of surface troughs also expected to work across the region amid generally west-northwest flow. It will become cold enough for lake effect snow to develop into the primary snowbelt (east of Cleveland into Northwest PA) Sunday night, with this activity continuing Monday before tapering/lifting over the lake Monday night. Elsewhere, the upper trough and any surface trough axes combined with steep low-level lapse rates and a fetch off of Lake Michigan may support flurry and spotty snow shower potential from Sunday evening through at least Monday morning, especially from parts of Northwest OH towards the Central Highlands.
This is not an especially impressive lake effect set-up, but there is a period of time early Monday morning through a good portion of the afternoon where it becomes cold enough to yield moderate instability over the lake with the DGZ lowering into the lift and moisture. Winds will be fairly well-aligned out of the west- northwest with some connection to Lake Michigan being hinted at.
This may allow for a period of moderately intense lake effect and somewhat higher snow ratios. Dry air and a lowering inversion will cause activity to begin losing intensity Monday night as backing flow begins shifting the activity out over the lake.

The greatest accumulations will likely occur over the higher terrain of southern Erie and northern Crawford Counties, especially east of I-79 where up to a few inches could be possible.
The rest of the primary snowbelt likely sees just a minor accumulation, though there may be another small maximum from parts of Cuyahoga County points east towards Geauga County and surrounding areas (such as southern Lake County and extreme northern Summit/Portage Counties). Here, a connection to Lake Michigan combined with favorable shoreline convergence near Cleveland may try to focus a band of snow that can produce a couple inches of snow in spots. Slightly warmer temperatures near Lake Erie and fairly strong winds over the lake suggest lakeshore communities will see much lighter accumulations than inland locales. This looks like a low impact event overall. Moderate bands of lake effect snow may lead to minor travel impacts Sunday night and Monday in parts of the snowbelt. Outside of the snowbelt any flurries or snow showers will amount to a dusting at most Sunday night into Monday.

Lows Sunday night are expected to drop into the upper 20s/lower 30s, with highs on Monday in the 30s. Lows Monday night will dip into the 20s. It will be brisk on Monday with wind gusts of 25 - 35 MPH possible, especially near the eastern lakeshore.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cold front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, though there will be no upper support for precip and the airmass will be very dry. This should result in a dry frontal passage, though it gets cold enough that a few lake effect snow showers may impact far Northeast OH and parts of Northwest PA Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Winds may gust over 30 MPH on Tuesday as the front moves through.

The rest of the period will be dry with high confidence in that forecast. Temperatures will be near normal Tuesday through Thursday before beginning to moderate by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/
Widespread VFR ceilings and visibilities are being observed across the area this afternoon as some mid-level clouds begin to move into western Ohio. The area currently lies in the warm sector of a low pressure system centered over the Upper Midwest.
This has resulted in gusty winds from the southwest, sustained at 12-18 knots and gusting to near 25 knots in some locations.
These gusty winds will last until near sunset and after remain from the south-southwest at 5-10 knots.

As the cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure begins to approach the area Saturday morning, ceilings will gradually diminish to MVFR heights, hovering mostly above 2kft, but may drop to low end MVFR by the end of the period for western terminals. In addition, as the front approaches, the pressure gradient is expected to increase and result in winds ramping up again from the south. Late Saturday morning through the end of the TAF period will experience south winds of 15-20 knots, gusting up to 35 knots at times. The strongest winds should be limited to terminals along and west of I71 and for KERI where downsloping will enhance the winds. The final thing to mention is that the chance of showers spreads east through the period with KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD expected to get showers before 18Z Saturday. Overall forcing for shower development is better after this time period, so opted to keep VFR visibilities, but in any locally heavy showers, visibilities may briefly be reduced.

Outlook...Non-VFR in isolated/scattered showers Saturday. Non- VFR continues Saturday night into Sunday in widespread rain. As the system exits to the east, lake effect snow may produce non- VFR conditions across NE OH into NW PA Sunday night and Monday.

MARINE
Fairly active weather is expected across the lake over the next several days. A cold front will gradually cross the lake Saturday night into early Sunday. Southerly winds of 15-25 knots are expected on Saturday ahead of the front, strongest over the open waters.
Brief 20 knot sustained winds may occur in some of the western nearshore zones, but confidence in the expected duration is too low to warrant a Small Craft Advisory. The relatively cold waters argue against winds over-performing by much in a warm air advection regime. Winds turn west-northwest on Sunday behind the front at 15- 20 knots, then increase to 20-25 knots over much of the central and eastern basins Sunday night and Monday. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may begin as early as Sunday over the central and eastern basins...if we don't need an Advisory on Sunday, we will definitely need one over the central and eastern basins Sunday night through at least Monday night. Another cold front will cross the lake on Tuesday bringing another period of elevated winds, likely in the 20-30 knot range...first out of the southwest on Tuesday, veering more westerly Tuesday night. Winds should decrease into the 10-20 knot range out of the west-southwest Wednesday through Friday.

CLIMATE
It is expected to get very warm on Saturday, December 9th, with temperatures approaching record high levels. Here are the records for Saturday:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

12-09 60(1952) 60(1952) 62(1952) 62(1952) 64(1952) 65(1885)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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