Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairport Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:58PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 9:32 AM EDT (13:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:36PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202004071415;;698458 Fzus51 Kcle 070736 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 336 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez145>147-071415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 336 Am Edt Tue Apr 7 2020
Today..Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots or less becoming west 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots overnight. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 46 degrees, off cleveland 42 degrees, and off erie 42 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 071107 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 707 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

SYNOPSIS. A warm front to the southwest of the area will lift northeast today, reaching the Lake Erie shoreline by this afternoon. Low pressure will approach from the northwest this evening and cross Lake Erie overnight, while extending a cold front across the area. Weak high pressure builds in for Wednesday behind this system. Low pressure over Ontario on Wednesday night will extend a stronger cold front across the area by Thursday. This low will reach the New England states and deepen by Friday, and a trough of low pressure will linger over the area to start the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Rain, along with some thunderstorms, have filled in fairly well over the region this morning, ahead of the warm front. The hourly hi-res guidance, including the HRRR and the RAP, are starting to catch onto the trends with this area of convection and have tweaked PoPs over the next several hours to focus in on where this rain is expected to move. Have also bumped up QPF slightly this morning with this complex and several locations are expected to get over a half inch of precipitation.

Previous Discussion . The weather will be extremely active over the next 24 hours as three rounds of convection are expected by daybreak on Wednesday. The first round of showers and thunderstorms can be found this morning across northern Indiana, stretching back towards the Chicago metro area. These showers have developed along a warm front that has reached the southwest portion of the forecast area. These storms have congealed and grown since midnight as isentropic lift and increasing moisture near the surface have finally broken the mid-level cap over the region. These storms will continue northwest to southeast along the front this morning, eventually making it into northern Ohio. The main area for the thunder and heavier rain appears to be the southwest half of the forecast area (SW of US 250) as the front slowly lifts northeast. Training of thunderstorms has already occurred this morning over Indiana and some training over the area could allow for up to one inch of precipitation, where storms persist. Strong low-level warm air advection expected late this morning into the afternoon will likely re-cap the environment and allow for this activity to diminish.

The second round, a more conditional round, of showers and thunderstorms could be this afternoon and evening, particularly over inland Northeast Ohio. The warm front will continue north today and eventually make it somewhere along the lakeshore by this afternoon. Behind the front, a conditionally severe environment will enter the region with steep mid-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, 0-6 km shear values of 40 to 50 knots, and increasing low level moisture. These features would be supportive of a severe weather threat. The limiting factor appears to be a cap between 8 and 10 kft as temperatures respond to the strong low-level warm air advection. If the convection this morning doesn't entirely work over the region and some breaks in the clouds appear behind the warm front this afternoon, there is the potential for storms to be diurnally driven over the region and overcome this cap. If high temperatures reach the upper 60s to near 70 degrees this afternoon, that should be enough to generate convection and surface based CAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg may be achieved. If clouds and lingering rain keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, it may be difficult to overcome the cap. If this is the case, some additional forcing will need to enter to generate thunderstorms. The warm front itself may provide enough lift, but if it doesn't, the region could just stay capped. Again, the main area of concern for this round would be inland NE Ohio, generally east of I-71 and south of US 422. If the cap breaks, large hail will be the greatest concern, given the steep mid- level lapse rates. Damaging winds may be possible as well in stronger cores. An isolated tornado is also possible depending on the ultimate placement of the warm front and the low-level flow into the region.

The third round will be in the late evening into the overnight as low pressure crosses the lake and extends a cold front across the region. The aforementioned thermodynamic environment appears to remain in place ahead of the cold front with good mid-level lapse rates and elevated CAPE. This front will certainly offer enough forcing to generate convection and tap into this environment. Therefore, any robust convection has the potential to bring a hail threat to the area. In addition, with what could be a third round of heavier rain for some areas, flooding will become a concern and will bear watching. This front sweeps through by daybreak on Wednesday and will allow the area to dry from northwest to southeast. Weak high pressure enters and may allow for brief recovery over the region and temperatures may attempt to reach the 60s again in some areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. The short term begins Wednesday night with models showing a strong cold front approaching the area from the west. The front with pass across the area after midnight however timing differs between the GFS and NAM with the NAM the slower of the two. By 12Z the front should be east of the area however will bring pops in west before midnight with the faster GFS. Temps at 850mb drop below 0C in moist air behind the cold front so there is a remote chance of precip ending in a little mix. Still, surface temps should be high enough to preclude a significant snow. Thursday deep low pressure will be moving into Quebec forcing additional cold air into the region with 850mb temps continuing to fall to around -6C by evening and -9C by 12Z Friday Both the NAM and GFS have sufficient moisture and flow off the lake for snow or a mix of rain and snow. Will have likely to categorical pops Thursday and Thursday night for rain and snow across northeast Ohio and nwrn PA. Will taper pops into the chance category for friday afternoon as slightly drier air moves in. Will continue to taper pops for the snow belt Friday night. Highs Thursday in the mid 40s. Highs Friday 40 to 45.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Saturday begins with the GFS and ECMWF showing high pressure across the area. Low pressure will be developing in the Southern Plains. Models take the low into the lower OH Valley Sunday and then north across the lakes into southern Ontario/Quebec Monday. The biggest difference between models is 850mb temps. The ECMWF temps across the region behind the associated cold front drop to around 0 to 5C while the GFS 850mb temps drop to around -11C. For now will side more with the warmer of the two. Will bring chance pops in Saturday and continue through Sunday night. Monday will have chance pops east. Highs Saturday upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday highs in the 50s and Monday highs 50 to 55.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/. Active weather expected today will make for a roller coaster of a TAF period. Showers and thunderstorms have overspread the region this morning and will continue to do so until the afternoon. Conditions are trending down towards MVFR with this rain and some locations may get an occasional rumble of thunder this AM. After a brief break, some areas in the southeast portion of the airspace (KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG) may see another round of showers and thunderstorms behind a warm front. Low pressure approaches from the northwest and extends a cold front across the area tonight. Ahead of the front, showers and thunderstorms are expected to roll across the area and conditions should fall to MVFR and perhaps IFR. Behind this area of convection, ceilings will remain non-VFR into Wednesday.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible with residual low ceilings on Wednesday. Non- VFR again possible Thursday into Friday with rain and low ceilings.

MARINE. Winds across Lake Erie will remain generally light through Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Winds will pick up out of the west after midnight Wednesday night as a strong cold front moves east across the lake. Expect west flow of 20 to 25 knots Thursday turning northwest Thursday night and early Friday before diminishing slowly Friday afternoon. Expect a small craft advisory will be required late Wednesday night or Thursday, through Friday. Friday night through Sunday winds will remain generally light and under 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Sefcovic NEAR TERM . Sefcovic SHORT TERM . TK LONG TERM . TK AVIATION . Sefcovic MARINE . TK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi44 min 50°F 51°F1013.1 hPa34°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 16 mi62 min S 5.1 G 8 96°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 27 mi50 min S 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 47°F1012.7 hPa43°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH20 mi1.8 hrsWSW 620.00 miOvercast52°F39°F62%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm----N6N7NE7N7N7NE5NE7NE5E5E5CalmE3E3N3--CalmCalmCalmE4SW6Calm
1 day agoNE7N7N9N10N7N7N8NW5N8N6NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmNW7NW7NW4NW3N8N7E5CalmNE3CalmE3SE3N4CalmW4W7NW5N5N6N7N9N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.