Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairport Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 9:02PM Friday July 10, 2020 11:59 AM EDT (15:59 UTC) Moonrise 11:33PMMoonset 10:24AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:202007101415;;611322 Fzus51 Kcle 100751 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 351 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>147-101415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 351 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 78 degrees, off cleveland 68 degrees, and off erie 75 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 101354 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 954 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. A shortwave trough will move east across Michigan today and cross Lake Erie tonight. A cold front will push through late tonight ushering in a cooler and less humid airmass for the weekend. Additional but weaker shortwave troughs will cross the area again on Sunday and Monday as the pattern remains active.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. Latest radar imagery shows convection over Indiana moving east into western Ohio. Another cell developed over Lucas county as well. Radar from Fort Wayne and visible satellite shows outflow boundaries pushing east and this will be a focus for further development of convection in the next few hours over the western portions of the forecast area. Latest SPC guidance has been been upgraded to a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the western half of the forecast area for today. This was expected as threat continued to increase with the approaching cold front and upper level support. Main threat will be strong damaging winds with pretty good downburst potential. Excessive rainfall threat is also expected as well from the thunderstorms. Latest precipitable water imagery derived from satellite shows values around 1.7" across the forecast area at this time. Areas to the east will eventually start to see the convection develop as lake breeze develops and initiation from localized lifting mechanisms takes place. Temperatures across the area are warming rapidly. Currently watching temperature here at Cleveland Hopkins Airport rise about 2 to 3 degrees per hour. We are currently at 88 degrees with a dewpoint of 70. Similar trends are being reported across the area. Expecting another hot one today but active convection may reduce heating duration this afternoon.

Previous Discussion .

Focus for today is the progress of a shortwave trough as it moves east across Michigan. Its eastward progress has slowed overnight as a frontal wave developed, putting the best estimate for its arrival around late morning to noon in our western most counties In the meantime. expect mostly clear skies for the first part of the day which will drive temperatures back up into the 90s. Looking at rapid diurnal heating coinciding with afternoon height falls which will destabilize the region. MLCAPE values likely in the 1000-1500+J/kg range this afternoon with PWATs increasing with low level flow to around 1.8". This will set the stage for diurnally driven pulse storm development ahead of the approaching surface front. Looking at conditional/marginal severe potential this afternoon as shear values increase to around 15 to 20 knots. Though weak, this combined with sufficient instability could produce some localized downburst along with locally heavy rainfall. Lake breeze east of Vermilion will be the lifting mechanism for another area of storm development ahead of the main line. Moisture pooling with main line will push PWATs to around 2" and warm cloud depths near 13k feet will support heavy rainfall. Shear values are modest but the timing of 17-24Z will provide peak boundary layer heating and destabilization which when combined with low level convergence and upper level support should strengthen the line as it moves east. Recent hot spell has dried out much of the area so streams and creeks should be handle the heavy rain for the most part, however can't rule out localized flash flooding given the likely intensity of the rainfall and possibility of cell training.

This evening the cold front will push east of the area with the shortwave trekking into Ontario. With cooler heights aloft and lingering low and mid level moisture expect to see a fair amount of clouds behind the front and ongoing development of showers through the overnight. The drier air will gradually erode the clouds from the west by Saturday, however the flow feeding in from the lakes will continue rain/thunderstorm chances in the east. Temperatures will return to normal low/mid 80s for Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Multiple upper-level shortwave troughs will make their way across the region through the short term period, resulting in several chances for much needed showers and thunderstorms along with near normal temperatures. The first of the upper-level troughs will make its way through on Sunday, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms during the daytime hours on Sunday. The second upper- level trough will be quickly moving southeast across the area on Monday evening/night with slightly less moisture than Sunday's system. However, there will still be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours on Monday. These upper-level troughs will result in near-normal temperatures (highs in the upper 70s to low 80s), which will provide much needed relief from the ongoing heat wave.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. On Tuesday, upper-level ridging builds in before the synoptic pattern becomes less amplified for the rest of the forecast. This forecast period will be fairly similar to what we've been seeing the past week or so: hot temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with diurnally-forced isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours. Dew points also creep back up into the upper 60s to near 70 by midweek as well, making it uncomfortably humid.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/. VFR conditions will continue through the first 6 hrs of the TAF period at all terminals. Southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots, slightly higher with downsloping at ERI. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms expected to develop early this afternoon, with locally heavy rain dropping VSBYs and CIGs to MVFR at times. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will bring a more linear line of storms starting around noon in the west and trekking east through the early evening. Gusty winds around 35kt will be possible with the line and any strong pulse storm this afternoon. Behind the front more stable conditions will develop and look for a MVFR deck to develop which will continue into Saturday. Gradually drier air will filter in from the west lifting/eroding clouds but for the central and eastern terminals plan for mostly cloudy conditions and on/off again showers and thunderstorms into Saturday afternoon.

Outlook . Non-VFR ceilings possible in lower ceilings Saturday morning. Non-VFR could linger across portions of NE OH and NW PA through Saturday night.

MARINE. Southerly winds of 10 knots or less expected during the daytime hours today. Southwest winds begin strengthening late tonight to around 15 knots ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to cross Lake Erie Saturday morning with west to northwest winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots most of the day Saturday. At this point, based on much of the model guidance, it seems probable that a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement will be needed for much of the day Saturday. Winds weaken Saturday night and Sunday but should persist out of the west and northwest behind a weak front that moves across Lake Erie late Saturday night into Sunday morning. West to northwest winds persist through Monday before becoming weak and variable on Tuesday as weak high pressure builds into the area on Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Jamison NEAR TERM . Jamison SHORT TERM . Saunders LONG TERM . Saunders AVIATION . Jamison MARINE . Saunders


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi66 min SSW 8 G 12 90°F 80°F1009.9 hPa73°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 16 mi90 min SSE 7 G 8.9 88°F
45164 23 mi60 min 80°F1 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 27 mi66 min Calm G 2.9 89°F 74°F1010 hPa69°F
45132 - Port Stanley 44 mi60 min S 7.8 G 7.8 80°F 80°F2 ft1009.3 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH20 mi75 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F71°F59%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

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Last 24hrN7CalmN5NE7N7N6NE5NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmSW5S4SE4SE6SE4SE7SE6S10SE5S6SW9SW6
1 day agoNW4N8NW5N7N7NW7NE3NE3NE3CalmCalmSE5W4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmNW7
2 days agoNW9W5SW9CalmS11S6S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.