Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fairport Harbor, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:46AMSunset 5:25PM Sunday January 19, 2020 11:04 AM EST (16:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:47AMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 339 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.gale warning in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..West winds to 30 knots. Freezing spray through early afternoon. Snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming north and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 38 degrees, and off erie 37 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:202001191515;;179167 FZUS51 KCLE 190839 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 339 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-191515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairport Harbor, OH
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location: 41.83, -81.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 191506 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1006 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough of low pressure will move south across the area today. High pressure over Iowa will extend a ridge east over the local area Monday. The high pressure center will move to the Ohio Valley Tuesday and to the East Coast Wednesday night. A warm front will lift north across the region Friday night as low pressure approaches from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. Dropped the rest of the Wind Advisory as winds continue on its downward trend today.

Made some adjustments to snow totals to account for veering steering flow of lake effect snow. This shouldn't change too much for the primary snowbelt but did increase snow total accumulations for the secondary snowbelt due to wind shifting to out of the north while conditions still remain somewhat favorable tonight, albeit briefly.

Previous Discussion .

Broad upper level troughiness will prevail across the local area through this forecast period. This will keep cold cyclonic flow persistent with strong cold air advection taking place.

Surface low pressure will continue to move east of the area today and this will allow gradient to weaken with time. Winds will continue to gust across the area through the day today and will continue wind advisory in effect. Expecting the winds to diminish from west to east across the area.

A surface trough is expected to move south across the area this morning and sufficient synoptic moisture and lift will cause some snow to affect the local area. The extreme western and southern portions of the forecast area should be spared any snow. Convergence along the frontal boundary will support some lake enhanced snowfall across the northeast snowbelt areas today before the wind flow shifts to a northwest and northerly direction by this evening. Will need to get some quick bursts of snow in squalls that develop with the trough to accumulate snow to reach warning criteria across Erie County in Pennsylvania. Otherwise, once flow becomes disrupted by the trough and begins to shift to a northwest direction, snow bands will become multibanded in nature resulting in widespread snow shower activity rather than a concentrated snow band. Lake induced instability still only conditional at best and inversion is favorable for cloud depth for about 6 hours before it begins to descend later today. With all of the above in mind, will continue with the lake effect snow warning and winter weather advisory that are currently in effect.

Much drier air aloft will arrive Monday and this will begin to quickly end the threat for snow activity. Pulled back considerably on the POPs for Monday.

Strong cold air advection will take place through this period and this appears to be the longest cold stretch of the winter season. Expecting highs in the 20s each day and lows tonight in the teens.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. The center of the Arctic high pressure system will be over the Midwest Monday night near Iowa. We will still have a light northwesterly flow at the surface moving over the lake shifting to a westerly light flow by Tuesday morning. It appears that the Lake Effect snow will continue to slowly decrease Monday night into Tuesday morning as the flow becomes weaker and the inversion becomes lower as well as drier air continues to filter in. The coldest night of this Arctic chill may actually end of being late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, especially areas that have fresh snow cover and clear skies.

A light west to southwest wind return by Tuesday afternoon and temperatures will start the slow moderation process. Upper level ridging and height levels till rise by Wednesday across the region. Much quieter weather is expected for a few days starting late Tuesday through mid week. Temperatures will climb above freezing for most locations by Wednesday afternoon. We should see a couple days of sunshine for the middle of the week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Our next weather system to impact the area will begin to take shape and develop across the Central Plains region by Thursday into Friday. High clouds will be increase late on Thursday. An upper level trough and low will progress across the Upper Midwest by Friday and into the Great Lakes region by Saturday. Widespread precipitation will move into the area by Friday into Friday night. Some light wintry weather may be possible with onset of the precip but quickly be warm enough for just rain for most of this next weather event. Temperatures will eventually be back above average for the later half of the week into the weekend with highs in the 40s and mostly a rain event for the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/. Lake effect snow continues across the northern tier areas in response to the combination of synoptic moisture and flow from Lake Michigan. A disorganized meso low pressure system over Detroit will move southeast into northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania later this morning and afternoon. We could see an intensification of the snow across the area when it arrives as it enhances the snowfall.

Otherwise, ceilings around 1500 to 2500 feet should be the rule across the area through much of the forecast period. Exception will be locations where snow bands develop where ceilings could drop to 700 feet. Visibilities will vary from mostly VFR to occasional MVFR in the snow bands. Erie could drop periodically to IFR at times through mid day. Flow will gradually shift around to the northwest today as the trough slides south across the area.

OUTLOOK. Non-VFR possible Thursday.

MARINE. Westerly winds are no longer reaching gale-force over Lake Erie and winds will continue to ease today. Thus, the Gale Warning has been cancelled. Westerly winds of about 25 to 30 knots will shift to northwesterly and ease to about 20 to 25 knots this afternoon with the southward passage of a secondary cold front. The northwesterly winds will then become northerly by late evening and continue to ease to about 15 to 20 knots. 8 to 11 foot waves this morning will lower to 3 to 6 feet by the end of the day today for the central and eastern basins. Smaller waves are expected in the western basin due to a shorter fetch. Thus, the threat of freezing spray will diminish over the course of today. In addition, lake levels will probably be variable today as the lake waters slosh around for a time following the recent gale-force winds. However, critically-low water levels are no longer expected in the western basin.

On Monday, northerly to northwesterly winds of about 10 to 20 knots are expected and waves will continue to subside. In fact, waves are forecast to be 3 feet or less by daybreak Monday morning. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 4 PM this afternoon for nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to The Islands, while a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 7 AM EST Monday for nearshore waters from The Islands to Ripley, NY. Quieter marine conditions are expected later Monday morning through Thursday as winds back gradually from northwesterly to southerly.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for Ohz011>014- 089 PA. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for PAZ003. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for PAZ001-002 MARINE. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ144>149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142- 143.

SYNOPSIS . Lombardy NEAR TERM . Lombardy/Saunders SHORT TERM . Griffin LONG TERM . Griffin AVIATION . Lombardy MARINE . Griffin/Jaszka


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 5 mi46 min WSW 31 G 38 21°F 35°F1016.5 hPa20°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 16 mi94 min W 19 G 25 29°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 27 mi52 min WSW 12 G 24 16°F 37°F1017.8 hPa9°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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N11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH20 mi2.3 hrsWSW 17 G 224.00 miLight Snow18°F12°F79%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS20
G27
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W15W12W13
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1 day agoNE8E4NE6NE4NE7NE6SE5SE7E6SE6E6E6E6E5SE6SE10
G16
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SE11
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G25
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G28
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2 days agoNW12
G20
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N9NW7N5N7NE7--NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.