AVIATION

A broad region of surface high pressure is centered on the eastern Great Lakes and southern Ontario where it will remain tonight and Saturday. The associated dry and stable air mass ensures sky free of low clouds with the possible exception of a few patches near western Lake Erie around sunrise. A few cirrus streamers also make it down from the northern Great Lakes and Ontario. Light and variable to calm wind becomes light easterly as a nearly identical day unfolds through Saturday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...There is no chance of thunderstorms through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 405 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

DISCUSSION...

Near-surface anti-cyclone is currently centered in the vicinity of Southern Lake Huron - bringing mainly sunny conditions with light southeasterly winds. A shallow diurnal cumulus fields sprouted midday along and south of a Howell to Grosse Isle line - in an area of increased near surface moisture. These clouds are already well on the way to mixing out. The reduction in surface moisture via advection and mixing should limit fog formation overnight tonight.
The exception will be warmer inland bodies of water - where lows in the upper 50s may establish some lake-induced patch fog.

The flow aloft is already undergoing a dramatic shift toward an anti- cyclonic attitude - support broad subsidence and increasing heat in the mid and lower troposphere. The influence of the upper-level ridging will continue through the weekend - reintroducing typical mid-summer conditions. An increase in high clouds will occur on Saturday as some cirrus cascades about the upper ridge axis.

Sunday will be a bonafide summer day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. Moisture levels will on the increase during the afternoon hours as a weak wave trapped within the longwave ridge inches closer to the Great Lakes Region. The higher humidity levels will continue into Monday and chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The same can be said for Tuesday as the wave drifts overhead and creates a weakness in the ridge for a shortwave across southern Canada to exert a little influence.

There is a substantial consensus for a prolonged period of above average temperatures next week as the column remains warm along the periphery of the expansive ridge over the central portions of the CONUS. The Southern Great Lakes Region will be close enough to the faster flow aloft - and the mid-level thermal fluctuations the accompany the waves washing through - to prevent the forecast from being completely dry.

MARINE...

A ridge of high pressure centered over The Thumb maintains weak and variable winds through the rest of today yielding favorable maritime conditions across the central Great Lakes. The high then migrates into the eastern waters Saturday and provides southwesterly return flow (locally) with only a minor uptick in afternoon wind speeds after the reestablishment of a better defined surface pressure gradient. Peak gusts could reach 20-25 knots for portions of northern Lake Huron Saturday evening while the rest of the waterways generally hold AOB 10 knots. A weak shortwave trough approaches Monday bringing the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms followed by a more organized surface low pressure system Tuesday with higher precipitation chances.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.