Monday, August10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Lakeville, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 7:52PM Monday August 10, 2020 8:03 PM EDT (00:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:26PMMoonset 12:27PM Illumination 55% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri through Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Mon Aug 10 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres remains S of the waters through midweek. A cold front will cross the waters late Thu into Fri morning, bringing scattered showers and tstms. High pres will extend down across the waters from ern canada Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Lakeville, MA
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location: 41.84, -70.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 102341 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 741 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Oppressive heat continues through Wednesday across much of southern New England. Popup showers and storms possible across the interior Tuesday, but still expect most locations to remain dry. Increasing chances for showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday. Seasonable temperatures, dry conditions and much lower humidity levels return Friday into this weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. Latest SPC mesoanalysis showed mixed layer CAPE values around 1,000 J/kg, with a decrease of about 500 J/kg over the past 3 hours. Expecting this trend to continue with sunset. There is virtually no organizing shear, so the pulse-type convection is also expected to diminish over the next couple of hours. The main concerns this evening will be gusty winds up to 40 mph at most and localized downpours. Should these downpours occur over the same area, we might see minor flooding issues. Will be monitoring the radar closely this evening.

Minor tweaks to the forecast this evening to reflect observed trends. Expecting more marine stratus towards the south coast. The timing of this stratus has been difficult to pin down. Something else to be monitored overnight.

Previous Discussion .

Ridge axis building over southern New England tonight with a subtle shortwave trough sliding offshore. At the surface a weak trough will be nearby, but will also have a surface high nudging in.

Skies clearing as the ridge builds in. Only exception is along the south coast where stratus and fog will move in. Utilized the HREF and NAMNest guidance once again as it has had a decent handle on this activity the past couple of days. Some deterministic guidance has indicated there could be some light precipitation over Cape Cod and potentially the Islands. Think that this is overdone and given the dryness that has persisted, so will continue to keep the forecast dry.

Will be mild and muggy across southern New England. Dew points remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Low temperatures right around those dew points with readings in the upper 60s to low 70s. May see lows closer to the mid 70s across urban areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Highlights

* Any stratus/fog burns off early on Tuesday. Pop up showers and storms possible across the interior. Warmest day in the latest heat wave with fairly widespread 90+ degree temperatures. Heat index values getting into the mid 90s to low 100s.

* Any pop up shower/storms end Tuesday evening. Increasing sky cover ahead of an incoming cold front. Still mild and muggy.

Tuesday .

Ridge axis slides offshore and will see a subtle shortwave trough lift from the central Great Lakes/southeast Ontario into the eastern Great Lakes/northern New England. Surface high will remains offshore to the southeast.

Main concern in the short term is the oppressive heat and humidity. Based on the performance of high temperatures on Monday opted to bump up the forecast highs to the 95th percentile of guidance. Think that majority of models are struggling given the persistent dryness across southern New England. Winds aloft shift to the southwest at 925 and 850 hPa. Will see 23-25+ degree Celsius 925 hPa air over the region. Results in the hottest stretch of the latest heatwave with widespread temperatures in the lower 90s. Only exception is along the south coast where readings will be in the mid to upper 80s. Will see the warmest readings in the CT River Valley and especially across the Merrimack Valley given there will be a bit of downsloping. Here readings top out into the mid 90s. This matches up fairly well with the EPS probabilities of temperatures AOA 90 degrees.

Have not made any major changes to the dew point forecast from the previous shift. Will see upper 60 to low 70 degree dew points. There may be a bit of a drop during the afternoon as gusty winds develop. This coupled with the temperatures results in Heat Index values of 95-100. The highest values are likely to be found across the Merrimack Valley. Have expanded the Heat Advisory to include Southern Bristol, Washington, Eastern and Southern Plymouth counties.

Do have slightly more favorable dynamics for showers/storms across the interior with a 40-60 kt 250 hPa jet streak northwest of the region. Roughly in the equatorward entrance region of this feature. This coupled with surface based CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, nearly adiabatic low level lapse and K indices of 25-30 with aforementioned dew points. So will probably have some pop up showers and storms, did bump up precipitation chances to bring scattered activity to NW MA - as advertised by the latest NSSL WRF. Still do not anticipate any severe storms due to the poor mid level lapse rates and weak deep layer shear. Not out of the question there could be some isolated gusty winds due to the strong low level heating, DCAPE values of roughly a few hundred to 1000 J/kg and somewhat inverted-V forecast soundings.

Tuesday Night .

Dry and quiet weather expected as any pop up showers/storms come to an end. Cloud cover increasing across the region ahead of an incoming cold front. Could see some showers/storms spreading into western areas toward daybreak.

Remains mild across southern New England with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures once again right around those numbers. Will see low temperatures in the lower and potentially mid 70s across urban areas.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Highlights .

* Very warm with high humidity levels leads to continued elevated heat indices on Wed.

* Slow-moving front Wed into Thu brings increased chances for showers and storms. While not everywhere gets wet, localized downpours possible.

* Seasonable temps with much lower humidity levels return Fri into this weekend.

Details .

Not much has changed with this portion of the forecast from the past few days. Still expecting a cold front to plod its way across southern New England sometime from late Wednesday into Thursday. This front should then be pushed well south of our region for Friday into this weekend by a high pressure over southeast Canada. This high pressure should move over the North Atlantic early next week, perhaps enough to permit a warm front to arrive next Monday.

Temperature-wise, looking at tropical heat and humidity to continue into Wednesday. Heat Advisories have been extended. The humidity will start to diminish behind a cold front Thursday, but it wills till be rather humid. Temperatures should be near normal values for mid August, so not thinking Heat Advisories will be needed Thursday, although many locations may still be approaching 90 degree maximum temperatures. Near to slightly below normal temperatures with more comfortable humidity expected for Friday into Monday.

Precipitation-wise, this front will be our next best chance for more widespread rainfall across southern New England. Not all areas will see rainfall, but all areas will at least have a chance for some Wednesday into Thursday along and ahead of a cold front. The tropical humidity should mean the risk for localized downpours. Drier weather should then persist until late Sunday into Monday, which is when a warm front may approach from the west. That timing is not locked in, and may change with later forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight . High confidence

VFR with light SW winds. Will see stratus and fog developing across the south coast. Could have MVFR to LIFR conditions with the lowest conditions anticipated at ACK.

Tuesday . High confidence

VFR with SW winds. Strong heating and the mixed layer growing should result in some 15-20 kt gusts mid to late in the morning through the afternoon at most locations. Isolated showers and storms possible across the interior.

Tuesday night . High confidence

VFR conditions expected with SW winds around 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE. Generally quiet weather. Main concern is stratus/fog, especially along the south coast. Generally expecting visibilities of 1-3 nm.

Tuesday will see similar conditions to today, though think there is less of a risk of showers/storms as activity should remain confined to the interior. Again could have some local SW gusts of 20-25 kts across Buzzards Bay, Nantucket Sound and Vineyard Sound during the afternoon. Wave heights remaining at or below 4 feet.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/ .

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. MA . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. RI . Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>004-006. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Belk/BL NEAR TERM . Belk/BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Belk AVIATION . Belk/BL MARINE . Belk/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi45 min 83°F 80°F1015 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi45 min SSW 14 G 16 82°F 1014.5 hPa
FRXM3 17 mi45 min 82°F 70°F
PVDR1 24 mi45 min SSW 8 G 11 85°F 1014.6 hPa71°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 24 mi45 min 80°F 79°F1014.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 25 mi51 min SW 5.1 G 11 87°F 80°F1014.3 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 26 mi45 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 80°F 1015.3 hPa
PRUR1 26 mi45 min 77°F 73°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 26 mi78 min SW 5.1 81°F 1014 hPa72°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 26 mi45 min 75°F 77°F1015.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 28 mi78 min S 2.9 78°F 1015 hPa75°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 31 mi63 min SW 18 G 19 1015.6 hPa (-0.3)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 31 mi45 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 71°F1015 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 31 mi45 min SSW 8.9 G 11 80°F 79°F1014.9 hPa
44090 32 mi36 min 69°F1 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 36 mi51 min 89°F 65°F1012.2 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 38 mi73 min S 12 G 14 77°F 69°F1 ft1011.3 hPa (-0.9)68°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi43 min SW 14 G 18 78°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi73 min SSW 18 G 19 74°F 2 ft1013.3 hPa (-1.1)65°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA6 mi71 minSSW 7 G 1510.00 miFair85°F68°F57%1013.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi70 minSW 11 G 1910.00 miFair82°F69°F65%1013.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi71 minSSW 1010.00 miFair84°F66°F57%1013.9 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA22 mi68 minSSW 910.00 miFair88°F69°F55%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS54S443SW4SW3SW4SW3SW3Calm45SW445S5SW9SW7SW10
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1 day agoS3S3S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW34S535SW8S9S9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm3SE93Calm3SE5S4SE6SE5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:56 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:29 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:56 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.32.52.421.510.70.50.50.91.31.82.32.62.72.421.51.10.80.80.91.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:39 AM EDT     -0.12 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:38 AM EDT     -4.06 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:40 AM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:40 AM EDT     3.77 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:13 PM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     -3.89 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.63.12.1-1.6-3.1-3.9-4-3.5-2.31.533.73.73.42.71.2-2.4-3.5-3.9-3.6-2.7-0.72.53.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.