Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 10:01 AM   Moonset 1:00 AM

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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1005 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Overnight - SW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: sw 2 ft at 4 seconds and S 1 foot at 7 seconds. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming S 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 foot at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. A chance of showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 foot at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Wed night through Thu night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: ne 3 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. Fri and Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 9 seconds and ne 2 ft at 3 seconds. Sat and Sat night - NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 1005 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres over the N atlc off the mid atlc coast will result in an increasing S to sw wind tonight into Tue. A low pres should move E from the mid atlc coast Wed night into Thu, shifting winds to the se to E across the waters. Depending on how close this low pres gets Thu, there could be some gale force gusts across the southern outer coastal waters. This low pres slowly moves farther out to sea through Sat.

FXUS61 KBOX 140135 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 935 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front brings widely scattered showers tonight followed by much warm weather tomorrow, a couple of showers and/or an isolated thundershower are possible in the interior Tuesday afternoon. Unsettled weather Wednesday through the weekend with more clouds than sun and periods of rain. Seasonable temperatures through the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

930 PM Update...

Shower activity attempting to encroach on western MA and eastern NY is having a tough time reaching the surface with dewpoint depressions between 10-15F. Dewpoint depressions will shrink overnight which will likely allow some light shower activity to skirt north of the MA Turnpike before daybreak.

Cloud cover is significantly less than forecast across the CT River Valley per satellite, which may aid a bit in dewpoint depressions collapsing over the next few hours, though S/SW winds are just strong enough to stave off significant radiational cooling. We'll see if this translates to slightly more widespread shower activity, but for now, kept forecast PoPs as is.

Previous Update...

Update: 3PM

Overall a stunner of an afternoon with many enjoying a sun-filled afternoon while others are stuck beneath diurnal cumulus which developed along the sea-breeze boundary. As these diurnal clouds wane this afternoon, mid and high clouds increase from the west ahead of a warm front. Stepping outside this evening should enjoy temperatures in the low 60s and falling into the upper 50s shortly after sunset. 850mb jet advects higher PWATs between 1.0 and 1.3 inch tonight and with the warm front passing through a few showers possible, though the best forcing looks to be limited to northern Massachusetts and points north into Vermont & New Hampshire. No washouts are expected, QPF is in the neighborhood of a few hundredths of an inch. South to southwest winds overnight are less than 10 mph. Nighttime lows are on either side of 50 degrees.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Update: 3PM

A warm and summer-like head is on tap! With the passage of the warm front Monday night, we are placed in the warm sector. Clouds from overnight do linger across northern Massachusetts, but will give way to partly sunny skies and fairly mild temperatures. Deep southwest flow usher in warmer and a more humid air mass. 925mb temperatures climb to +14C to +18C and BUFKIT shows a well mixed boundary layer tomorrow, highs will easily climb into the middle 70s away from the coast. It's not out of the question a few spots like the Merrimack and Connecticut River Valley top out around 80 degrees. Back to the coast, the southwest flow is an onshore wind for coastal Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts, here the temperature Tuesday afternoon only reaches the upper 60s and low 70s. Southwest winds become gusty as well, 15 to 25 mph. Shower are limited to northwest Massachusetts during the late afternoon where the best moisture and instability are located. HRRR ensembles have roughly 500-1000 units of MUCAPE along and west of the Berkshires, so it's possible there may be an iso. non severe thunderstorm. Rain chances expand throughout the overnight hours with a mid-level trough and frontal boundary approaching from the west. Winds ease overnight becoming more south less than 10 mph. Night lows fall into the middle and upper 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Update: 3PM

Highlights

* Unsettled weather Wednesday through the weekend with more clouds than sun and periods of rain

* Seasonable temperatures through the weekend

Wednesday and Thursday

A coastal low pressure system will pass well south of southern New England during the day Wednesday. Nonetheless, modest synoptic forcing and PWATs greater than 1 inch should support periods of rain during the day Wednesday. Accumulations will be modest with the strongest forcing to our south, but somewhere between 0.1 and 0.25 inches between Wednesday and Thursday morning should be in the cards for portions of southern New England. Downstream blocking has resulted in model guidance trending toward a slower departure of this system with cloud cover and showers lingering into the first half of Thursday for much of the forecast area. A mid-level ridge building in from the west may salvage a partly sunny day for the western areas on Thursday afternoon. Expect somewhat gusty southwest winds on Wednesday with northeast gusts along the east coast on Thursday.

Friday through the weekend

The forecast remains unsettled late week through the weekend. As the mid-week coastal low departs over the Atlantic Friday afternoon, a short-wave dropping down from The Great Lakes will support the development of another surface low-pressure system that is likely to bring cloudiness and periods of rain to southern New England this weekend. Confidence in timing, duration, and intensity of potential rainfall is low at this time so we have leaned on the NBM for guidance at this time range. Temperatures look to be seasonably persistent through the weekend with daily lows in the low to mid 50s and daily highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. Coastal locations continue to run cooler with highs in the upper 50s/low 60s more common on days with onshore flow.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00Z TAF Update

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Scattered showers are possible across northern MA, with at times briefly lower VFR CIGs 3-5k ft. Winds are south to southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...High confidence.

VFR. A few convective showers possible across interior MA and northern CT during the afternoon. Steady southwest winds with gusts developing in the afternoon 20 to 25 knots.

Tuesday Night...Moderate confidence.

VFR to start, becoming MVFR/IFR heading later into the night with increasing rain chances from west to east. Southwest winds 8 to 12 knots early, becoming south 5 to 10 knots.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Breezy southwest winds with gusts 20 to 25 knots fend off any sea-breeze potential on Tuesday. Rain chances increase Tuesday night.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Increasing wind speeds Tuesday with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible. Dry for most of Tuesday as well, rain arrives after 00z.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Sunday: Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Update: 3PM

Tonight through Tuesday night....

Southwest to south winds this evening with winds speeds between 10 and 15 knots, seas area generally less than 3 feet, near 4 feet on the outermost waters. A robust southwest jet brings period of more gusty winds Tuesday afternoon between 20 and 35 knots and seas building to 4 feet, it is possible later crew could issue a Small Craft Advisory, especially for the northeast waters where there is a greater likelihood. Winds diminish Tuesday night with rain chances during the second-half of the night.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Taunton
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Mon -- 01:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:20 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:53 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:28 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts, Tide feet

Cape Cod Canal
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Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:45 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT     -4.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:13 AM EDT     4.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:48 PM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT     -3.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:31 PM EDT     0.17 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:25 PM EDT     3.52 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots

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