NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1026 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Rest of tonight..West winds to 30 knots. Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..West winds around 15 knots backing southwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming around 15 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 100607 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 107 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 1242 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Dry conditions prevail through Friday outside of some lake effect rain and snow showers Sunday into Sunday night. Less an inch of snow accumulation is possible through Monday morning in northwest wind favored snow belts. Otherwise, highs will be in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s through Monday, then rise into the low to mid 40s for Tuesday. Lows will be in the 20s and 30s.



SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Cold front has cleared roughly half or so of the area with a narrow band of showers and occasionally a storm or 2 where temps have managed to reach the low 60s (Defiance to Van Wert). Wind gusts in the vicinity of the front remained in the 35 to 40 mph range, with Benton Harbor and marine sites along the LK Mi shoreline seeing gusts of 45 to just over 50 mph. South Bend managed a 45 mph gust. While winds will remain somewhat gusty behind the front, speeds should decrease somewhat with gusts limited to 25 to maybe 30 mph
Another side note
South Bend broke their record high of 58 set in 1946 by a degree. Fort Wayne had a record of 64 and this appears safe.

Regarding rain chances the rest of the afternoon, confidence remains low on how much more progress the front will make as the first piece of energy (currently across N Lower MI) continues to eject NE while we await the arrival of the secondary trough moving through eastern Iowa. Outside of the line of showers in far SE areas, we will likely have to wait for developing convection extending from Evansville SW to Paducah which will race NE along the front. Hi-res models suggest a glancing hit from an expanding areas of convection across mainly near/SE of Lima with bulk of the activity remaining just to the south and east. Will tighten gradient and hold onto a small window of likely pops, but could easily see even Lima getting little outside of the narrow line of showers.

While CAA has commenced behind the front, main push of colder air arrives late tonight into Sunday. Lake response will be sluggish to start until coldest air and NW flow setup after 12Z Sun. That being said, hi res models suggest a brief, but robust lake enhanced development in portions of Berrien and Cass counties. Wet bulb temps suggest mainly rain but wouldn't be surprised to see some snow mix in. Slightly better chances for less than an inch of accumulation will be Sunday night as lows fall below freezing, but by this point dynamics begin to wane and inversion heights fall.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Very tranquil period in store with with a series of northern stream troughs passing north of us, but doing little more than stopping any better warm ups with gulf moisture cut off. Temps will moderate back towards normal, if not somewhat above as heights finally increase somewhat mid to late week. Weekend forecast looks potentially interesting as southern stream cut off low over the SW US moves east and appears to potentially phase with northern stream energy.
As expected, models vary greatly and will continue to play games for the days to come until key features are better sampled in the upper air network. Some token slgt chc pops end out the forecast, but likely are overdone at this point.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1242 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

A short wave and surface cold front will move through the Great Lakes today, gradually washing out as it moves eastward from its current location over WI/northern Lake MI. This will bring the potential for light lake enhanced rain/snow showers at both terminals through the period (especially at KSBN). Don't expect too many impacts to KFWA from these showers as they are further inland and south and the front weakens as it moves eastward, however at KSBN we could see some impacts in heavier showers. The guidance keeps visibilities at 6SM or greater and hovering around 1500-2000 feet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick drop to IFR if a few deeper cells can develop or if we get more of a drizzle (there isn't a whole ton of moisture to work with). Have low confidence in how the showers will evolve-so kept things MVFR for now and can add further detail as things progress for the 12z update. Winds will shift from more WSW to WNW through the period, gradually diminishing in intensity from this mornings gusts of around 20-25 knots.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ043-046.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Northern Indiana, IN,