Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 3:19 PM   Moonset 3:00 AM

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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Through early evening - South winds around 5 knots. Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot. Tonight - South winds 5 to 15 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - North winds around 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday night - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering east late at night, then veering southeast toward daybreak. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot. Tuesday - South winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LMZ800
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 182320 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 720 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures in the 80s through Tuesday. 70 degree temperatures take over for the late week.

- Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms still appear possible between Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening.

- One potentially dry day next week is Thursday.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Forcing that helped Friday's isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms form shifts to our south and east as mid level ridging moves in this afternoon as further indicated by mid level height rises during the day today. Perhaps a few lingering boundaries, like the lake breeze, could force an isolated shower or thunderstorm this afternoon with 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but expect they will be fewer and further between than Friday. For tonight, a few clouds could be around, but not enough to impact radiational cooling, especially east of the approaching cold front and its accompanying cloud decks. Think the greatest chance of fog reforming tonight is south of US-24/east of I-69 and so have continued the patchy fog mention for these areas. The cold front slows up just to our northwest on Sunday, but there may be enough low level moisture and convergence around to force a few showers and thunderstorms across the area Sunday afternoon. Will maintain the slight chance PoPs as a result. Locally heavy rain and perhaps a strong downburst could be have from these storms, but severe weather doesn't look likely with the lack of shear in place. For Monday, the close proximity of forcing from a low pressure system pushes the stalled frontal boundary back northward as a warm front. With lingering low level moisture and reforming instability, could see a few showers and storms pop again Monday afternoon. Have pulled back the chance PoPs to more slight chance PoPs though with forcing being the main lacking ingredient unless another lake breeze can get things going or an outflow boundary moves in from the north or west. A shortwave crosses into Southern Lower Michigan Monday night increasing PoPs to slight chance for counties west of IN-15 and well as north of US-6.
Another shortwave takes a little bit more of northerly track perhaps scraping our northeastern counties Tuesday morning, but only have a slight chance as the warm sector gets set up and the column dries out.

Later Tuesday night into Wednesday increases chances for strong to severe weather. With an upper low to northwest in the Upper Mississippi Valley/Northern Plains area pushing its cold front into the area, we'll have ample forcing and a moisture axis to work with in addition to an area of 7 C/km lapse rates. With this moisture axis swinging through during the overnight, instability appears to wane and effective shear drops out with the lowered instability. So, the timing and diurnally influenced ingredients may be the limiting factor for the Tuesday night time period. The front appears to stall out over the forecast area as another vort max swings around the upper low to our northwest. During the diurnal curve, instability reloads (debris clouds-defendant) and there's potentially some shear to work with along with what remains of the 7 C/km mid level lapse rates Wednesday afternoon. The main question with this is where will the front be and can things get going quick enough Wednesday afternoon for severe weather to occur east of I-69 or potentially as far west as east of IN-15.

Deterministic model confluence still exists on retaining the dry day on Thursday as surface high pressure noses in and mid level height rises ensue.

Coupling between the Pacific and subtropical jets occurs Friday allowing a low pressure system to form. The upper low from the Tue/Wed event is situated over southeast Canada during this time period and shunts the developing surface low to south of the forecast area. As such, there's some question about how far north its moisture plume can get towards the area.

High temperatures during this forecast period start in the low 80s for today, but attain the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through Tuesday before stair-stepping down to the low to mid 70s for late week next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period given relatively dry air in the low levels. Calm winds could support some patchy, shallow ground fog at KFWA late tonight but profiles appear much drier than last night so chances for impacts are very low. A weak cold front will cross the area tomorrow and may touch off a few isolated showers but once again the chances for impacts are too low to mention in the TAF, especially at this time range.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for INZ005-012>015-022-023-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ078-177- 277.
MARINE...None.

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