Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:21PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 10:29 AM CST (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201912112215;;195024 Fzus53 Klot 111554 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 954 Am Cst Wed Dec 11 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>743-112215- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 954 Am Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to around 15 kt late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Thursday..South winds to 30 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 111153 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 553 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

SHORT TERM. 255 AM CST

Through Thursday .

This Wednesday morning will provide a quick hit of some mainly light snow to the CWA, particularly along/south of a line from Byron to the south Chicago metro. Impacts should be minimal because of the short duration, but with the cold pavement now and still early season, a dusting during the morning commute is still notable. Otherwise in the short term, below normal temperatures reside for one more day before a flip to slightly above normal on a breezy Thursday.

The somewhat progressive but deep long wave trough is oriented from the polar latitudes southward through the Great Lakes this morning. A 150 kt upper jet, as sampled on last evening's BIS sounding, is streaking southeastward into the base of the trough. This is resulting in an indirect thermal circulation in its exit region, with resulting frontogenesis in the 925-750 mb layer. The DVN VWP sampled 45 kt at 3,000 ft, verifying a strong warm advection pocket into that vertical circulation. With a favorable thermal and saturation profile near the dendritic growth zone, the response is what we would expect in this pattern with a clipper, that is an area of light with an embedded potential for brief moderate snow moving into northwest Illinois as of 3 am.

Often with a system like this, one can extrapolate upstream conditions into the short term forecast fairly well, that is as long as the system does not re-orient, deamplify, or fade. All of those trends are expected to gradually happen by mid-late morning as the short wave cruises into the eastern CWA/northern Indiana. But for northern Illinois, the aforementioned forcing connected in the vertical does favor a sizable area of light snow from 5-10 a.m. The trend from yesterday is a tad further north accounting for observational trends. This would favor any brief areas of moderate snow . driven mostly by f-gen . in Lee, southern DeKalb, LaSalle, Kendall, Grundy, and Livingston Counties through 9 a.m. After that period, the forcing further east looks to weaken, but still light snow. Am expecting a couple hour period of light snow for the southern parts of the metro tapering to flurries by the north.

Most areas that see snow for over an hour probably will have a dusting. Parts of the area that see snow for 3-4 hours (listed in prior paragraph where moderate snow is favored), probably will see some totals over one half inch. A lower possibility but on the spectrum given the ingredients and snow ratios are a couple one inch totals in the western CWA. The dusting will likely occur on some paved surfaces so will message that aspect early this morning.

Clouds with this should clear out pretty quickly, with only maybe lake effect flurries/light snow in northern Porter County Indiana this afternoon. Temperatures look to peak in the lower 20s north to upper 20s south. A fairly quick drop will happen early this evening with a 1035 mb high overhead if high clouds have not moved back over yet. They will at some point later this evening and temperatures will start to rise as they do, especially with southeast winds kicking in overnight.

Warm advection returns on Thursday and quickly at that, with a Pacific/clipper hybrid moving into the western/northern Great Lakes region resulting in a tightened pressure gradient. The depth of the boundary layer on Thursday has lower confidence as the models show notable variability with a strong warm nose aloft. There should be enough isallobaric component (7-8 mb/6 hr pressure falls) for 20 mph sustained winds, especially in far northern Illinois. Some gusts to 35 mph would be possible depending on mixing depth. Highs look to rebound into the lower to mid 40s, with any light dusting that occurred this morning likely not retarding the temperature climb much. As for any precipitation from the wave to the north, there is a chance in far northern Illinois for some light rain or possibly wet bulb cooling enough for some brief ice pellets, but that does not look to be of any impact given the above freezing surface air temperatures.

MTF

LONG TERM. 320 AM CST

Thursday night through Tuesday .

In the extended, there continues to be an unsettled and at least likely cloudy pattern Friday and Saturday. Right now would be a little surprised to get through Saturday with no snow in the CWA, even if just light and brief,given the primary global models and their ensemble solutions the past few runs. A more impacting snow on Saturday is a non-favored outcome at this time, and a lessening one in recent runs, but some guidance (11.00 GFS) does still indicate that and a couple ensembles so worth mentioning here.

Another amplifying trough from Ontario into the Great Lakes is forecast to evolve late Friday into the weekend, though definitely not as deep or cold as the current one. This will be driven by a split flow regime and a stronger subtropical jet, with some potential phasing likely to the east of the area. With a the split flow on Friday and Friday night, it's a bit nebulous for precipitation forcing throughout that time. Had thought about removing or lowering some of the chances provided by the blend as it looks like a low QPF and spotty if it were to materialize. Profiles get marginal Friday night for both ice and surface temperatures if south winds are light enough. It will be something to watch but low confidence in any light freezing precip at this juncture.

For Saturday, the left exit region of the upper jet has been consistently forecast to overspread some of the area, and as such a gradually deepening low is forecast to be taking shape in or just east of the region. If this occurs at a strong enough magnitude and in-sync with the northern stream, enough cold air should wrap in for some snow and possibly accumulating snow. The 11.00 GEFS members have about a third that indicate a tenth of an inch plus of QPF during Saturday in the eastern half of the CWA, with the GFS deterministic solution much higher than that. This is why we lean more toward the EC and GEM solutions right now. Did boost PoPs some on Saturday afternoon as that remains a consistent overlap in those two global solutions for some precip accumulation. Again it may just be a light rain to light snow and departing so not for much duration and of nil impact, tough to say yet at this juncture.

No changes made to the blended solution for early next week, with still an active westerly jet over the middle of the country. The Monday period has been favored to have a southern stream system moving northeastward in the middle or eastern part of the country, and with a potential large QPF swatch. We right now are favored on the northern to beyond the far northern part of that. Overall the pattern looks to yield slightly below normal temperatures through early next week.

MTF

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

Main concerns for the period will be a brief period of light snow this morning and strong, gusty south winds tomorrow.

Latest radar imagery shows an area of snow moving into the region. The northern edge of the light snow runs from near KRFD to KIKK and is quickly moving to the east. Have made little change to the forecast with regard to the snow, still expect a brief period of light snow at the terminals, 2 to 3 hrs, with only a dusting or a tenth of an inch or so of accumulation. Vis may drop to mvfr for a short time, but expect cigs will likely only lower to lower end vfr and any greater impacts to be south of the terminals, closer to the main upper level forcing. Following the passage of this system, expect skies to scatter by mid-day.

Winds sill start out the morning wly-wswly arnd 10 kt with an ocnl higher gust. Surface high pressure will move into the region by late afternoon and through the evening, allowing winds to diminish through the afternoon, and become light southeast this evening as the surface high drifts to the east.

Winds will become the primary concern tomorrow. Low pressure is expected to track across the upper Missouri Valley tomorrow morning as the exiting high moves through the Mid-Atlantic region. A strengthening pressure gradient will drive sustained southerly winds of 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-30kt. Winds should veer to southwesterly in the afternoon, but should remain elevated through the afternoon.

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Gary to Michigan City IN until 3 PM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi29 min W 8.9 G 14 20°F 13°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi39 min W 19 G 22 19°F 13°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi59 min WSW 6 G 11 19°F 1029.2 hPa13°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi39 min W 18 G 21 21°F 15°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi36 minW 87.00 miLight Snow20°F12°F74%1032.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi38 minW 9 G 1810.00 miMostly Cloudy19°F10°F71%1031 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi37 minW 12 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy20°F8°F60%1031.5 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi54 minW 93.00 miLight Snow19°F16°F88%1030.1 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi37 minW 83.00 miLight Snow18°F12°F81%1031.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13W11
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1 day agoSW8SW11SW12W13W12
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2 days agoSW14SW12S12
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S7S4S6SW5S3S7S5S5S6S8S8S9SW8SW8SW9SW9SW9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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