Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:30PM Sunday July 5, 2020 9:11 PM CDT (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:18PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 249 Pm Cdt Sun Jul 5 2020
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest around 5 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 ft.
Monday..Southeast winds around 5 kt becoming east at 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves around 1 ft.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest around 5 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741 Expires:202007060330;;370300 FZUS53 KLOT 051949 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 249 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ741-742-060330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 052313 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 613 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SHORT TERM. 229 PM CDT

Through Monday night .

A few isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon, especially along and west/south of the lake breeze boundary as it slowly pushes inland. Otherwise, much of the same weather conditions will persist into Monday, as early July heat continues.

Weak but expansive surface high pressure was analyzed across the western Great Lakes region early this afternoon. Resulting weak gradient and light wind field has again allowed a lake breeze to develop and push inland from Lake Michigan. As of 2 pm, temps range from the lower 80s at the lake shore, to the upper 80s/around 90 away from the cooling effects of the onshore lake breeze. While surface dew points have mixed out a little lower than yesterday, the combination of a weak mid-level short wave and low level convergence along the lake breeze boundary has allowed development of some moderate towering cumulus, and the development of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms - especially across parts of northwest Indiana around the Valparaiso area. Visible satellite imagery depicts a couple other areas of enhanced cu, including parts of north central IL closer to the subtle mid-level cooling associated with the short wave, and farther south from Valpo southwest to the Pontiac areas. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out during the late afternoon/early evening peak heating window, and have included some 15-20 percent pops in these areas for that potential, though most areas are expected to remain dry. Winds aloft and resulting deep layer shear is quite weak, and weak lapse rates and dry air in the mid-levels should all tend to limit the intensity of any thunderstorms. Still occasional cloud to ground lightning, modest wind gusts and brief downpours are possible with any of the deeper updrafts that develop. This isolated activity should wane quickly with the gradual loss of diurnal heating toward sunset this evening. Another relatively mild night is in store, with perhaps a little shallow fog or haze again toward sunrise.

Monday looks to be similar to today with heat continuing, though with less upper support for afternoon isolated showers/storms at least across the northern 2/3 or so of the cwa. A weakness in the mid-level height field downstate may allow for a few isolated afternoon storms across central IL/IN to brush the southern tier of counties, but otherwise things look dry during the day. Low level temperatures fields (925-850 mb) are progged to be pretty similar and perhaps a degree C warmer, with afternoon highs expected to be more solidly in the lower 90s away from the lake with possibly a few 93-94 degree readings in some spots. Weak gradient will again allow for lake breeze development and cooling near Lake Michigan.

Upper ridging breaks down later in the day and into Monday night across the region, with the upper flow evolving to a more zonal pattern. Convective development is expected to our north across the Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night and outflow may spread into parts of southern WI late, but guidance generally keeps convection our of the WFO LOT cwa.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 306 PM CDT

Tuesday through Sunday .

While there will be daily chances for some isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms, hot and increasingly humid weather continues to be the key message through Thursday. The most oppressive period of hot and humid weather in this pattern looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday, when low to mid 90s temperatures look to coincide with dewpoints in the lower 70s to result in heat indices in the 100 to 105 range. Later in the week (late Thursday into Friday) it appears our chances for more widespread thunderstorms will increase as a bit of a pattern change takes place. This in turn could set up a bit cooler weather going into next weekend.

On Tuesday a mid-level disturbance, and its associated upper level speed max, is expected to track eastward through the quasi- zonal upper level flow pattern over the upper Midwest. While much of the better dynamics with this feature will remain to our north, weak capping could support some scattered afternoon storm development over the area. As such, we continue to carry some chance POPs during this period. Otherwise, expect temperatures to once again be in the low 90s away from the slightly cooler lakeshore areas.

Upper level heights will begin to build across the Mississippi Valley and lower Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday in the wake of Tuesdays disturbance. This may act to suppress any diurnal storm development Wednesday afternoon, making for a hot and more humid day, especially for inland areas, where heat indices could top 100. Weak southwesterly flow will likely allow another lake breeze to develop Wednesday afternoon, so some heat relief will be possible right along the lakeshore. This does not look to be the case for Thursday, so the hot humid conditions will likely reach the near shore areas. Heat indices of 100 to 105 will again be possible.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to ramp up over the area late Thursday through Friday as the upper level pattern shifts into a bit more active northwesterly pattern for us. This looks to occur as our upper ridge begins to retrogress westward over the Rockies and the Plains, as troughing sets up over the eastern CONUS late in the week and into next weekend. At the present time, we have our highest chances for showers and thunderstorms during the Thursday night through Friday timeframe. Temperatures should cool off a bit into next weekend, so it looks like we may get a break from the heat.

KJB

AVIATION. For the 00Z TAFs .

Weak lake breeze expected again Monday afternoon at immediate Chicago area terminals. Otherwise, weather nil, VFR.

- Izzi

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi41 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 71°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi41 min S 6 G 6 79°F 75°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi53 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 1013.9 hPa68°F
45174 22 mi31 min S 3.9 G 3.9 77°F 77°F1013.9 hPa74°F
45187 45 mi31 min S 1.9 G 1.9 77°F 76°F
45170 46 mi31 min 3.9 G 3.9 77°F 77°F1 ft73°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi78 minESE 710.00 miA Few Clouds85°F61°F45%1012.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi80 minE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy87°F62°F43%1013.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi79 minE 410.00 miFair86°F63°F46%1013.6 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi76 minE 610.00 miFair83°F64°F53%1014.2 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi79 minNNE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy84°F66°F57%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E6NE5NE5NE3N4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E8E7E10
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1 day agoE5CalmCalmCalmNW3N3NW3NW3CalmNW5N5N53CalmNE6NE5N7NE11NE10E10E10NE11NE7E4
2 days agoE4E4E4CalmW3CalmNW4CalmCalmNW3CalmW3NW53SE6NE9NE9E94E11
G16
E9E8E7E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.