Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday April 9, 2020 6:12 PM CDT (23:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:39PMMoonset 7:34AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202004100300;;839970 Fzus53 Klot 092019 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 319 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>743-100300- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 319 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Northwest gales to 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt this evening and to 30 kt overnight. Chance of rain and snow showers this evening. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves building to 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 091957 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 257 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

SHORT TERM. 240 PM CDT

Through Friday night .

Potent mid-level wave is currently slicing in from the north, and attendant increasing forcing for ascent coupled with plentiful earlier insolation has allowed for the development of scattered showers which are dotting the radar scopes at this hour. Even though ambient surface temperatures have warmed nicely into the mid and even upper 40s in spots, wetbulb temperatures are only in the mid 30s given the very dry air present in the boundary layer. This, combined with the very cold temperatures aloft and the presence of some burgeoning surface-based instability has resulted in the dominant precipitation type(s) being snow and graupel within the convective cores.

Have started to see some cooling cloud tops noted upstream in two bands, one just now crossing into northern Illinois and another farther northwest moving into southwest Wisconsin. These local cloud top enhancements appear to be associated with a local maximum in surface-based instability, and the expectation is for these somewhat more enhanced/robust convective cores to continue to develop southward across parts of our CWA through the rest of the afternoon hours. The theme/weather message of the day has not changed all that much, with the expectation for locally enhanced wind gusts and attendant sudden and sharp visibility reductions in any snow/graupel. Have seen a few lightning flashes upstream, and certainly can't rule out a few strikes down this way as well this afternoon given the presence of some surface-based instability and the boundary layer having mixed into and through the dendritic growth zone. Given the presence of upwards of 50 kts of flow (even towards 60 kts across our far south) at 600-650 mb, the concern remains that should any more robust cells manage to develop and realize the full depth of the mixed layer, that some gusts could approach 55-60 mph. Indeed, we have seen some sporadic 50-55 mph wind gusts within/near heavier cores early this afternoon, so something we'll be keeping an eye on as well this afternoon.

The good news is that with surface temperatures well above freezing and the staccato nature of things, no impactful snow accumulations are anticipated outside of the attendant visibility reductions. Can't rule out a quick dusting on grassy surfaces, but any of this would melt rapidly once the snow/graupel shower passes and the sun returns. These convective showers will begin to wane towards 6-7 PM, although could still see a few blips on the radar scopes through 8 PM or so before we more fully lose the diurnally-boosted instability.

Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s tonight. With surface winds likely remaining elevated, there isn't really a concern for frost development, and while temperatures briefly warmed well above average this week, these temperatures haven't been around long enough to cause concerns for initiating freeze headlines at this point. Could potentially see some patchy frost development towards Friday night/Saturday morning, but increasing cloud cover should preclude this potential to a large extent.

Tomorrow is looking pretty nice, although breezy and cooler immediately near the lakeshore with a lingering blustering northwest winds. Synoptic winds inland look just strong enough and westerly enough to hold up any lake breeze to the immediate lakeshore. Clouds increase Friday night ahead of the next weather disturbance, but it looks like precipitation chances will hold off until later on Saturday.

Carlaw

LONG TERM.

Saturday through Thursday .

257 PM . Forecast concerns include increasing rain chances this weekend with a chance of thunderstorms Sunday . along with a windy Monday.

A warm front will lift across the area Saturday which will be the focus for shower development especially in the afternoon and evening. There could be a bit of lull in precipitation Saturday night as a large trough develops from the Great Lakes region southwest into the Plains by Sunday morning. Low pressure will ride along this trough and then begin to rapidly deepen Sunday night into Monday. While the models are in fair agreement from this distance . as winds turn northerly across parts of the area there could be some large temperature differences . especially if winds turn off the lake and while its too early to include in the forecast yet . fog will certainly be possible near/over the lake. Most recent models are just a tad slower with the bulk of the rain now focused on generally Sunday evening and during this time period there appears to be a least a chance for thunder especially across the southeast half of the cwa and added thunder back into the forecast for this time period. A strong cold front will swing across the area late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Its likely most of the precipitation will be over before temps become cold enough for any mix or changeover to snow but it is possible for some mixed snow prior to sunrise Monday.

As the low continues to deepen and the gradient remains strong . northwest winds will be quite strong on Monday . likely gusting into the 40 mph range possibly higher and bumped wind speeds and gusts up some. Temperatures next week will be colder and below normal and there many be some weak waves that allow isolated showers though confidence is fairly low and much of the next week could end up being rather dry.

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

The main aviation weather concerns are generally through about 10.02z or so and due to strong northwest wind gusts and potential for sharply reduced visibilities in convective graupel and snow showers this afternoon.

Strong northwest winds will continue this afternoon and linger into the early-evening hours with gusts routinely into 35 kt range and higher on a temporary basis. Convective precipitation is starting to develop off to the west of the terminals, and anticipate that this trend will continue through the rest of the afternoon. Have made minimal alterations to the inherited TAFs, mainly to refine the timing of most likely reduced visibilities in convective snow and graupel showers. In addition, based on recent indications that we'll be mixed nearly to 15 kft, there is a potential for any more deeply-developed showers to produced wind gusts close to 45-50 kts. The latest indications are that the most widespread activity may develop just south of the immediate Chicago-area TAF sites, but the potential for sharply and suddenly reduced visibilities exists this afternoon within or very near the currently-advertised TEMPO groups.

Finally, anticipate that there will also be some embedded lightning strikes with any more robust cores. That said, the expected coverage appears too low to justify a VCTS mention at this time, but thunder is certainly a possibility given the cold temperatures aloft.

Conditions should quickly improve during the early-evening hours. It's possible that some snow/graupel showers continue just a bit beyond the current TEMPO groups, but the impact potential should be quickly waning with time. Winds may remain a bit elevated tonight, with additional gustiness developing tomorrow afternoon. Given the stronger background flow, think the potential for a lake breeze looks low.

Carlaw

MARINE.

257 PM . Northwest gales will continue into tonight and slowly diminish early Friday morning As the gradient weakens Friday. a lake breeze will be possible with speeds quickly diminishing in the afternoon though lingering waves will be slower to subside. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Wind Advisory . ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033- ILZ039-ILZ103-ILZ104-ILZ105-ILZ106-ILZ107-ILZ108 until 7 PM Thursday.

IN . Wind Advisory . INZ001-INZ002-INZ010-INZ011-INZ019 until 7 PM Thursday.

LM . Gale Warning . nearshore waters until 4 AM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ744-LMZ745 . 4 AM Friday to 3 PM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi88 min WNW 14 G 27 42°F 23°F
OKSI2 12 mi193 min NNW 7 G 14 46°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi103 min WNW 29 G 35 44°F 18°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi103 min WNW 13 G 21 45°F 1006.8 hPa20°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi103 min NW 22 G 26 42°F 28°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N12
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G19
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G15
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N15
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G4
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E5
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G11
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G16
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G22
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi20 minWNW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F27°F53%1009 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi22 minNW 20 G 2710.00 miLight Snow and Breezy44°F21°F40%1008.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi21 minNNW 10 G 248.00 miLight Snow40°F28°F63%1009.2 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi38 minWNW 19 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy43°F25°F50%1008.8 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi21 minWNW 18 G 2510.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy44°F21°F41%1009 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN14
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NE6NW6NW8W12W11W13
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NW16
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G37
W24
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G36
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NW10
1 day agoSW11
G18
NW6W13
G22
W11N12N9E4E8E7E6E6NE6SE4S3S4CalmCalmSE6S53E7E12E6N15
G24
2 days agoE4E6E4NE4SE5SW7S3S5CalmS4S4S6S5SW8W5W7W106SW10S11
G18
SW15
G21
SW13
G21
SW12
G23
SW17
G27

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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