Monday, October14, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 6:13PM Monday October 14, 2019 8:24 PM CDT (01:24 UTC) Moonrise 7:01PMMoonset 7:33AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201910150315;;709172 Fzus53 Klot 141943 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 243 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 14 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>743-150315- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 243 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 14 2019
.gale watch in effect from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening...
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 10 to 20 kt late. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft, highest late tonight.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest gales to 35 kt, highest morning and early afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 142345
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
645 pm cdt Mon oct 14 2019

Short term
155 pm cdt
through Tuesday...

no significant concerns through evening, just pleasant but
seasonally cool conditions, lighter winds and plentiful sunshine
through the remainder of the afternoon.

Temperatures will be able to dip fairly quickly this evening with
the lack of cloud cover and lighter winds, but expect clouds to
increase in conjunction with increased southwest flow warm
advection. This is in response to a fairly sharp trough across the
northern rockies and adjacent plains. Moisture return has been
limited given a fairly expansive surface high to our south that
extends to the gulf of mexico.

A significant surface low will develop and strengthen as it will
track from the nebraska panhandle later today to northern lake
michigan by late Tuesday afternoon. There is a narrow and
concentrated period of forcing in conjunction with the warm
advection wing and moisture axis Tuesday morning. Steepening lapse
rates aloft should promote some showers and maybe an isolated
storm or too given presence of a bit of instability above 700 mb.

The low will still be strengthening Tuesday afternoon and a pre-
frontal surface trough will promote additional showers isolated
storm development ahead of it in the afternoon. It still appears
these would be favored for i-57 eastward, and likely even farther
east.

Kmd

Long term
155 pm cdt
Tuesday evening through the weekend...

the strong surface low will be crossing northern lake michigan by
Tuesday evening with the attendant cold front expected to be
clearing or just clear of the far eastern forecast area by early
evening. Will carry some low pops in the east for the evening
until timing can be better refined. Much of the deeper moisture
looks to be scoured out by the front for when the main upper
trough pivots across the area from late Tuesday evening through
the overnight. Cannot rule out some sprinkles or a shower with the
upper trough passage with favored areas being far northeast il
and northern portions of NW in. Winds will increase from the
northwest and gust into the 30 or maybe 35 mph range Tuesday night
and much of Wednesday. Expect a fair amount of stratus through at
least early Wednesday afternoon with some scattering possible
later in the day from west to east. A few lake effect rain showers
are possible over eastern lake and porter counties in indiana.

Highs will probably only warm to around 50.

The upper trough departs to the east as upper ridging builds west and
moves Wednesday night and moves toward the area. A surface ridge
crests the area during the day Thursday bringing sunny skies. A
light west to southwest wind and abundant sunshine will help highs
to reach the mid to upper 50s. The upper ridge moves overhead
Friday while the surface high is off to the east. Breezy south
winds will keep the warming trend going with highs in the 60s. The
ridging departs with an upper trough rapidly moving across the
central and northern plains Saturday. The main surface low is well
to the north but a weak cold front does sweep across the area
Saturday bringing the next chance for some showers and possibly
some thunderstorms. We’ll see how quickly the front arrives
Saturday, with a later arrival supporting a pretty mild day for
most areas with mid 60s to perhaps lower 70s but an earlier
passage would temper highs a bit. A more active southwesterly flow
sets up for Sunday into early next week which may bring more
showers Sunday. Longer term guidance generally agrees that an
upper trough will amplify over the central u.S. Early next week
but vary markedly on surface and other features.

Mdb

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

no aviation weather concerns over the next 12 hours or so withVFR
conditions and surface winds backing out of the southeast at
speeds under 8 kts.

The next potent shortwave disturbance--presently translating into
western north dakota--is expected to bring a period of lower cigs
(dipping into low-MVFR Tuesday morning afternoon), and a brief
potential for showers or maybe even an isolated storm or two.

The main core of better instability looks to remain just displaced
from the axis of showers through the mid-late morning hours on
Tuesday and for this reason, have refrained from a TS mention in
any of the tafs. That said, a few lightning strikes can't be
discounted, primarily during the 14-18z time window.

Skies may (temporarily) clear out later Tuesday afternoon as
surface winds veer to the west behind a cool front passage. Low-
level moisture is, however, expected to slosh back into the region
Tuesday evening and overnight, and period of MVFR CIGS appears
probable. In addition, west-northwesterly winds may become gusty
at times through the night. Can't entirely rule out a few showers
developing, but think this potential is mainly after the end of
the extended ord mdw TAF windows.

Carlaw

Marine
Updated 155 pm cdt
northwesterly gales are possible on southern lake michigan on
Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong cold front will sweep
across the lake Tuesday afternoon. The parent low pressure system
will strengthen as it tracks eastward from the northern lakes to
the eastern lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, tightening
the pressure gradient. In addition, a seasonably cold air mass
moving over the relatively mild lake waters will result in unstable
conditions and effective mixing. At this time, confidence is highest
in gales for the indiana nearshore, but they are certainly possible
for the illinois nearshore as well. The northwesterly wind direction
means that waves will be largest along the indiana nearshore. Will
go ahead and issue a gale watch from late Tuesday night through
Wednesday afternoon for the in and il nearshore waters. May end up
needing a small craft advisory Tuesday evening, prior to the gale
watch, especially across the in nearshore waters as waves will
beginning to build.

Castro mdb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Gale watch... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744-lmz745... 4 am
Wednesday to 7 pm Wednesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi39 min S 1.9 G 8 50°F 33°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi34 min S 7 G 8 53°F 35°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi54 min Calm G 0 49°F 1017.5 hPa38°F
45174 22 mi34 min S 5.8 G 7.8 53°F1 ft1018.4 hPa
45186 37 mi44 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 52°F1 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 38 mi44 min SSE 1 G 1.9 50°F 1018.6 hPa
45170 46 mi34 min ESE 7.8 G 7.8 50°F 54°F1 ft38°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi34 min SE 5.1 G 6 46°F 36°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi31 minSSE 310.00 miFair51°F33°F50%1018.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi33 minSSE 310.00 miA Few Clouds47°F35°F63%1017.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair45°F36°F71%1018.4 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi49 minS 510.00 miFair47°F35°F64%1017.9 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi32 minN 010.00 miFair45°F37°F74%1017.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8W7NW7NW6W8W7W7W6W6W5W6W6NW9W8W9W10W9
G16
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W6SW9SW6S3S3
1 day agoS18
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SW7NW6W4SW3S6SW6SW9W14
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2 days agoW7W17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.