Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Riverside, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 4:53PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 2:01 PM CST (20:01 UTC) Moonrise 5:30AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202001212215;;295873 Fzus53 Klot 211540 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 940 Am Cst Tue Jan 21 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-212215- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 940 Am Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
Rest of today..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..South winds 20 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of rain in the evening. Chance of snow after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Riverside, IL
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location: 41.84, -87.82     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 211750 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1150 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

SHORT TERM. 405 AM CST

Today and Tonight .

Quiet weather has settled across the area early this morning, and will persist through tonight. Only minor concerns early this morning are the potential for a little patchy fog to develop prior to sunrise west of the Chicago metro area, and some lingering lake-induced cloudiness over parts northwest Indiana.

Early morning GOES water vapor imagery shows a digging upper trough moving away from the region across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Strong mid-level height rises, on the order of 100-120 meters at 500 mb, were occurring within the upper level ridge developing in the wake of the departing trough. This deep subsidence was evident at the surface in the form of 1041 mb high pressure centered just south of the Quad Cities. Diminishing winds and generally clear skies are the result of this large scale sinking air, and have allowed temperatures to drop into the single digits and low teens across much of the forecast area early this morning. The exception to this has been across Porter and Jasper counties in northwest Indiana, where continued north- northwesterly low level winds have maintained lake-induced cloud cover through the night. This low level flow will back more westerly this morning however, as the surface anticyclone continues to drift southeast toward the lower Ohio Valley, and will result in clearing skies for the remainder of our northwest Indiana counties with the loss of onshore winds. Some high resolution model guidance, (HRRR, RAP and LAMP) had earlier been depicting the development of fog across parts of north central IL west of Chicago early this morning, though recent trends in these hourly run guidance has been less aggressive. GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery has shown some patchy fog/low stratus development across parts of western IL, where some weak warm advection was developing above the surface. It's not completely out of the question that some of this could develop into north central IL by sunrise, though the guidance trends suggest this may be a fairly low probability occurrence. Have maintained a mention however, of some patchy fog generally north of the I-88 corridor west and northwest of Chicago early this morning.

Otherwise, with the surface high moving south of the area today, surface winds will back to the southwest through this afternoon. Warm advection aloft, and a good amount of sunshine should allow temps to moderate into the mid 20s to around 30 today. Tightening surface pressure gradient will maintain persistent south winds tonight, which along with a gradual increase in high cloud cover overnight should help keep min temps in the teens to low 20s.

Ratzer

LONG TERM. 405 AM CST

Wednesday through Monday .

Longer term forecast continues to focus on the expected development and evolution of a deep closed upper low across the region, and the likelihood of a prolonged period of light to moderate precipitation across the forecast area from late Wednesday through Saturday. While medium-range guidance remains in decent overall agreement with the general pattern, there remains considerable spread in the details of the evolution of the closing off of the upper low, and the exact track of the low across the Midwest. This lends an overall lower confidence to the details of the forecast, including precipitation type and amounts.

On Wednesday, the initially open trough will be propagating eastward across the Plains, while a northern stream disturbance tracks well north of the region across Ontario. A surface cold front trails from this northern stream wave into the Plains, with guidance in overall good agreement in lifting a small amplitude shortwave northeast along this baroclinic zone on the forward periphery of the Plains upper trough. This induces enhanced southwesterly flow into the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, as this lead disturbance propagates across the area. Low levels are initially quite dry, seen in large dew point depressions below roughly 600 mb in forecast soundings. While the strongest moisture advection remains mainly west of the forecast area initially, persistent 30-35 kt 850 flow is indicative of warm advection, and isentropic progs in the 295-305 K layer depict increasing isentropic ascent and moistening. Saturation develops from the mid-levels downward Wednesday evening/night, with light precipitation eventually reaching the surface and spreading eastward with time through Thursday morning. Forecast soundings from various models depict thermal profiles mainly supportive of all snow, though the GFS continues to be warmest with a subtle +0.5 to +1.0 degree warm nose between 900-850 mb in our southern cwa Wednesday night. Have generally favored the consensus of the in the similar NAM/CMC and ECMWF in keeping the profile cold enough for just snow. This would support some minor accumulations mainly west of Chicago and the I-55 corridor by Thursday morning.

While the initial short wave lifts northeast of the area Thursday morning, the upper trough to our west deepens during the day as additional energy digs into it across the Plains. This results in somewhat weak but persistent forcing for ascent during the day, which looks to maintain the threat of continued light precip. Thermal profiles become marginal for snow near the surface during the day with marginal diurnal/warm advection warming into the 30s, making p-type likely a mix of rain/snow. Forcing then strengthens Thursday night and Friday as the low closes off and tracks eastward into the lower Ohio Valley. The GFS remains farthest north with the track of the mid-level circulation and resulting surface low, though the NAM and CMC have trended slightly north of their previous runs. As mentioned previously, this lowers confidence particularly in precip type Thursday night into Friday, with the profile already somewhat marginal, especially across south/southeastern parts of the cwa where low level southeast flow will provide the most warming. Surface temps will generally be close to freezing, suggesting the potential for snow/rain or freezing rain into early Friday. Northwest parts of the cwa will have a better potential for remaining primarily snow with some continued accumulation, though even there we may see a snow/rain mix during the day Friday. The upper low will then slowly drift east of the region through Saturday, with the column eventually cooling enough for precip to change over/end as some light snow. Low level thermal details will undoubtedly come into clearer focus as models narrow in on a solution over the next couple of days.

High pressure then builds into the region Sunday/Monday, though with temperatures still fairly mild and above average given the lack of cold air with the closed off nature of the departing storm.

Ratzer

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

No forecast concerns through Wednesday afternoon. High pressure crossing the area today will allow for southwesterly winds of around 10 kt this afternoon. Steady southwest winds continue tonight and turn a little more south-southwest or even south Wednesday morning. Gusts to around 20 kt are expected by Wednesday morning. VFR ceilings will lower from the west Wednesday afternoon. Further lowering to MVFR or lower is expected Wednesday evening/night with light snow chances increasing.

MDB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 11 mi17 min W 9.9 G 12 31°F 17°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi32 min WSW 12 G 15 29°F 19°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi44 min S 7 G 11 30°F 1032.7 hPa18°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 49 mi32 min W 6 G 6 29°F 18°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL5 mi2.1 hrsSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds29°F17°F61%1036.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi2.2 hrsSSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds27°F17°F66%1035.7 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi2.2 hrsSW 1110.00 miFair29°F15°F56%1036.1 hPa
Lewis University Airport, IL22 mi87 minWSW 610.00 miFair28°F20°F74%1034.2 hPa
Chicago / West Chicago, Dupage Airport, IL24 mi2.2 hrsSW 810.00 miFair25°F16°F69%1036.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9NE5NE8N7N5N6NW8NW7NW4NW5W4NW3NW4W4W3W3SW4SW4W4W8W9SW9SW10W12
1 day agoW10W11NW13
G19
NW13W11W9W7W8NW9NW7NW5W6NW5W4W5NW6W4W5W44CalmN4N6N6
2 days agoW20
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.