Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chicago, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:27PM Thursday November 21, 2019 3:46 PM CST (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:36AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ742 Expires:201911220415;;622690 Fzus53 Klot 212139 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 339 Pm Cst Thu Nov 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>743-220415- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 339 Pm Cst Thu Nov 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Tonight..West winds to 30 kt becoming northwest 20 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ742


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chicago, IL
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location: 41.85, -87.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 212101 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 301 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

SHORT TERM. 248 PM CST

Through Friday night .

As of 230PM CST, the strong cold front is quickly pushing across the region, extending, roughly, from Chicago through Pontiac. Any lingering pcpn has ended, with south-southwesterly winds gusting up to 35 to 40 mph and temperatures into the mid 50s are ahead of the front. Winds are shifting to westerly immediately following the frontal passage and will then continue to veer to nwly early this evening. While peak gusts are ahead of the front, winds will remain gusty behind the front through much of the night as strong cold advection and strong pressure rises overspread the region as another arctic high pressure system builds across the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley and to the Ohio Valley. Temperatures are also dropping off quickly following the frontal passage, with temperatures already dropping into the mid 40s west of I-39. Temperatures will continue to drop off rapidly through the evening even with overcast skies persisting until arnd midnight. latest forecast moisture profiles suggest that cloud cover should clear out late tonight. With winds remaining rather brisk through the night, radiative cooling will be minimal, but cold advection will drive overnight lows into the mid 20s around the Rockford area to the lower 30s across the remainder of the CWA. Friday should be sunny, but still cooler than normal with highs only in the middle to upper 30s, which is about 10 degrees below normal. Cloud cover should be on the increase Friday night, from south to north, as a deep upper low moves across the Central Plains to the Middle Mississippi Valley, setting up deep layer swly flow and a return fetch of moisture. However, any pcpn associated with this system will hold off until after the end of the short term period.

LONG TERM. 301 PM CST

Saturday through Thursday .

At the start of the period Saturday morning the upper low, currently over the southwest CONUS, will be shifting eastward across the Mid-Mississippi valley. This upper level system is likely to drive an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. While it appears that much of the moisture with this weather system will remain out of our area, there will be a chance for some light rain and/snow on Saturday, mainly over my far southeastern counties. Precipitation amounts look to remain low, so snow accumulations even in my far southeast would likely remain limited to under an inch.

Later Saturday night and Sunday through Sunday night will be dry with near seasonable temperatures. Looking ahead to the abbreviated Thanksgiving work week and busy holiday travel period, forecast confidence remains very low, especially in regards to precipitation chances Tuesday into early Wednesday. With southwest flow and warm advection, Monday has a decent chance to have slightly above normal temps into the upper 40s to around 50. The jet stream pattern across North America will become quite active next week, so ingredients could come together to support a stronger storm system across the central CONUS sometime around the Tuesday into Wednesday. This continues to be hinted at by operational runs and several ensemble members. However, uncertainty remains far too high to be confident in any specifics. Recent runs of the operational forecast guidance have trended farther east with the track of a potential storm system over the region next Tuesday into Wednesday. In fact, the most recent 12z runs of both the GFS and ECMWF would be very concerning for our area Tuesday into Wednesday for snow and wind. However, due to the wide spread in ensemble guidance and the large fluctuations in guidance over the past few days, it is clear that at this time range there is lower predictability in how the atmospheric will evolve over the region. For this reason, it is hard to envision the model solutions not continuing to waver significantly in subsequence runs. Until a better depiction of the storm system next week is obtained, we will continue with chance POPs over the area.

Castro/KJB KJB

AVIATION. For the 18Z TAFs .

The main band of pcpn has moved off to the east, through a few isold showers or patchy drizzle may persist into the early afternoon hours. Following the period of rain, cigs have lowered to ifr at some locations. Expect that the window of opportunity for the ifr cigs to be relatively brief. Expect that cigs should improve to mvfr levels following the passage of a strong cold front. At issuance time, the front was moving into far nwrn IL and is expected to sweep relatively quickly across the region. In addition to the ifr cigs and patchy ra/dz, sswly winds arnd 20g30kt will persist. Following the passage of the front, winds will veer through wly through the afternoon and then nwly this evening and overnight. Gustiness should persist through much of the night as strong cold advection sets up behind the front as well as a strong pressure rises on the order of 5-8 mb/3 hr. Latest forecast soundings suggest that the mvfr cigs may persist into the late night hours before the low level dry air overspreads the region as a large area of high pressure with a cold, dry air mass spreads across the region by early tomorrow morning, bringing clearing skies and diminishing winds.

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Gary to Michigan City IN until 3 PM Friday.

Small Craft Advisory . Winthrop Harbor to Gary IN until 10 AM Friday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CNII2 1 mi32 min WSW 17 G 21 51°F 43°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 5 mi47 min W 25 G 27 52°F 47°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 9 mi53 min WSW 12 G 21 53°F 1006.3 hPa47°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 37 mi47 min W 26 G 29 49°F 45°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL9 mi54 minW 21 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy52°F45°F77%1007.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL18 mi1.9 hrsW 21 G 3210.00 miOvercast and Breezy52°F46°F80%1005.1 hPa
Gary Regional Airport, IN19 mi62 minW 31 G 4110.00 miOvercast and Windy55°F44°F67%1007.1 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL22 mi52 minW 16 G 2110.00 miOvercast52°F48°F88%1007.1 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL24 mi55 minW 16 G 2610.00 miOvercast52°F44°F75%1006.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8SE5SE8S9S9
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1 day agoW3W4W3W3W3W3W4W5NW3W3W4CalmSW4SW3CalmS3Calm3SW7W6S7SW8SW4S6
2 days agoSW7W5SW6W7SW6SW6S6SW9SW7SW4S5S4SW3W4E4CalmE4E5SE4CalmNE4N4CalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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