Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chicago, IL
March 28, 2024 3:58 PM CDT (20:58 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 7:13 PM Moonrise 10:58 PM Moonset 7:58 AM |
LMZ742 Expires:202403290315;;779029 Fzus53 Klot 282028 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 328 pm cdt Thu mar 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-290315- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 328 pm cdt Thu mar 28 2024
Late this afternoon - West winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 ft.
Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 kt. Clear. Waves around 1 ft.
Friday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east 10 to 15 kt by early afternoon. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night - East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southeast overnight. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Saturday - West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 328 pm cdt Thu mar 28 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-290315- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 328 pm cdt Thu mar 28 2024
LMZ700
No data
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 282031 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 331 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few showers possible tonight south of I-80
- Period of showers and thunderstorms (80%+ chance) Friday night
- Active weather pattern continues Sunday into early next week with periods of showers and storms
DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through Friday night:
A weak cold frontal boundary will sag southward across northern IL this evening, then stall out south of the Kankakee Valley overnight. While most areas across far northern IL will remain precipitation free with the passage of the weak front this evening, increasing warm air advection through the evening atop this front may foster isolated to widely scattered shower development south of I-80. With the areal coverage of these showers expected to remain low, I did not make any changes to the going slight chance (20%) POPs for tonight. Any light showers will end prior to daybreak Friday.
The daylight hours of Friday are expected to be precipitation free across the area as we await our next approaching weather system for Friday night. Partly cloudy skies and warmer inland temperatures are forecast for Friday, with inland highs generally expected to be in the low to mid 60s. However, closer to the lake, persistent onshore easterly winds will result in cooler (40s)
conditions.
The weather gets more active mid to late Friday evening and night as our next weather impulse, and its associated surface low, track right across northern IL. As it does so, strong theta-e advection along the nose of a strengthening southwesterly low- level jet will foster shower and thunderstorm development along and to the north of a sharpening surface warm frontal boundary setting up near the I-80 corridor Friday evening. Storm motion is expected to be towards the east, which will be nearly parallel to the surface warm frontal boundary and the moisture convergence axis along the nose of the low-level jet. Accordingly, some narrow corridors of locally heavy rainfall amounts in excess of an inch could materialize across parts of northern IL through Friday night. If once of these narrow corridors of heavy rainfall occurs over the more urban areas in and around Chicago, some minor flooding could result. Otherwise, steep mid-level lapse rates may also support some small (sub-severe) hail within the strongest storms.
KJB
Saturday through Thursday:
Per the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, Friday's compact low pressure system should be on its way out of the area Saturday morning. Scattered showers and maybe a storm or two could still linger around past daybreak, mainly in eastern portions of our forecast area, but it's looking increasingly likely that most or all of our forecast area should be dry come the afternoon. Highs for the day should end up ranging from the mid 50s to the mid/upper 60s, depending on how much of the post-frontal status is able to be scoured out and how quickly that occurs.
A quasi-stationary surface front is expected to position itself somewhere just south of our forecast area on Sunday, but warm air advection and isentropic ascent will override this boundary and likely result in showers and possibly some storms spreading into at least our southern counties during the daytime on Easter Sunday. An uptick in shower coverage then appears likely Sunday night as DPVA increases and the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak moves overhead, and it appears probable that the northward extent of the accompanying precipitation footprint should lift poleward to some extent during this time as well. Steepening mid-level lapse rates resulting from this increase in upper-level forcing should also make thunderstorms a little more likely to occur after sunset on Sunday.
With our area remaining positioned beneath an energetic upper-level jet stream and along the northern periphery of a low-level baroclinic zone, showers and storms will almost surely continue here into Monday. The main forecast questions for Monday revolve around 1.) whether a formidable southern stream trough ejecting out of the southwestern CONUS will phase with a northern stream trough coming out of Canada, and when/where that phasing would occur; and 2.) how far the aforementioned surface frontal boundary is able to return northward, which will have some dependency on the degree of phasing that occurs and the resultant degree of surface cyclogenesis. These two factors will dictate whether a threat for severe weather will be realized in our forecast area and will also play a role in the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding early next week. While a non-trivial amount of spread remains in guidance, the latest multi-model and ensemble consensus favors the better chances for severe weather on Monday remaining just south of our forecast area, well in line with SPC's Day 5 Convective Outlook area.
However, we will need to monitor forecast trends closely as the surface front looks like it will at least be in close enough proximity to our southern counties to where the potential for severe weather could still be realized there to some extent.
Progged frontal positioning, low-level jet orientation, and storm motion all appear that they will be favorable for training convection for at least a brief period of time near and just north of the surface front on Monday. When considering this and that climatologically high precipitable water values are expected to be present, it does appear that there could be a threat for heavy rainfall and at least minor flooding in the southern half or so of our forecast area on Monday (and potentially into Tuesday too, depending on how everything evolves). The Marginal Risk in WPC's Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook seems appropriate for highlighting this potential for now.
Whether precipitation continues into Tuesday and Wednesday will depend on the extent to which the aforementioned troughs phase and where. Little to no phasing, or phasing occurring farther to the east, would favor conditions drying out towards the middle of next week. A favorable phasing, on other hand, would likely favor some chances for stratiform precipitation on one or both of these days.
Ogorek
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Aviation Forecast Concerns:
- Weak lake breeze wind shift likely for KORD/KMDW/KGYY this evening.
VFR cloud cover will decrease across the terminals early this afternoon, with increasing sun/mixing allowing west-southwest winds to become a little breezy with gusts near 20 kts. Winds will diminish and turn more northwest toward sunset, setting the stage for a weak lake breeze to develop for KGYY/KMDW/KORD (in that temporal order) this evening, with high-res guidance depicting winds turning light northeast around 00Z for KGYY, and after 02Z/03Z for KMDW and KORD. Winds will otherwise become light and variable at 5 kts or less for the overnight hours, before turning northeast toward morning and eventually easterly Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the current TAF period, though rain (and possibly some TSRA) will likely arrive Friday evening just beyond the end of the current 30-hour forecast period.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 331 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A few showers possible tonight south of I-80
- Period of showers and thunderstorms (80%+ chance) Friday night
- Active weather pattern continues Sunday into early next week with periods of showers and storms
DISCUSSION
Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Through Friday night:
A weak cold frontal boundary will sag southward across northern IL this evening, then stall out south of the Kankakee Valley overnight. While most areas across far northern IL will remain precipitation free with the passage of the weak front this evening, increasing warm air advection through the evening atop this front may foster isolated to widely scattered shower development south of I-80. With the areal coverage of these showers expected to remain low, I did not make any changes to the going slight chance (20%) POPs for tonight. Any light showers will end prior to daybreak Friday.
The daylight hours of Friday are expected to be precipitation free across the area as we await our next approaching weather system for Friday night. Partly cloudy skies and warmer inland temperatures are forecast for Friday, with inland highs generally expected to be in the low to mid 60s. However, closer to the lake, persistent onshore easterly winds will result in cooler (40s)
conditions.
The weather gets more active mid to late Friday evening and night as our next weather impulse, and its associated surface low, track right across northern IL. As it does so, strong theta-e advection along the nose of a strengthening southwesterly low- level jet will foster shower and thunderstorm development along and to the north of a sharpening surface warm frontal boundary setting up near the I-80 corridor Friday evening. Storm motion is expected to be towards the east, which will be nearly parallel to the surface warm frontal boundary and the moisture convergence axis along the nose of the low-level jet. Accordingly, some narrow corridors of locally heavy rainfall amounts in excess of an inch could materialize across parts of northern IL through Friday night. If once of these narrow corridors of heavy rainfall occurs over the more urban areas in and around Chicago, some minor flooding could result. Otherwise, steep mid-level lapse rates may also support some small (sub-severe) hail within the strongest storms.
KJB
Saturday through Thursday:
Per the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance, Friday's compact low pressure system should be on its way out of the area Saturday morning. Scattered showers and maybe a storm or two could still linger around past daybreak, mainly in eastern portions of our forecast area, but it's looking increasingly likely that most or all of our forecast area should be dry come the afternoon. Highs for the day should end up ranging from the mid 50s to the mid/upper 60s, depending on how much of the post-frontal status is able to be scoured out and how quickly that occurs.
A quasi-stationary surface front is expected to position itself somewhere just south of our forecast area on Sunday, but warm air advection and isentropic ascent will override this boundary and likely result in showers and possibly some storms spreading into at least our southern counties during the daytime on Easter Sunday. An uptick in shower coverage then appears likely Sunday night as DPVA increases and the right entrance region of an upper-level jet streak moves overhead, and it appears probable that the northward extent of the accompanying precipitation footprint should lift poleward to some extent during this time as well. Steepening mid-level lapse rates resulting from this increase in upper-level forcing should also make thunderstorms a little more likely to occur after sunset on Sunday.
With our area remaining positioned beneath an energetic upper-level jet stream and along the northern periphery of a low-level baroclinic zone, showers and storms will almost surely continue here into Monday. The main forecast questions for Monday revolve around 1.) whether a formidable southern stream trough ejecting out of the southwestern CONUS will phase with a northern stream trough coming out of Canada, and when/where that phasing would occur; and 2.) how far the aforementioned surface frontal boundary is able to return northward, which will have some dependency on the degree of phasing that occurs and the resultant degree of surface cyclogenesis. These two factors will dictate whether a threat for severe weather will be realized in our forecast area and will also play a role in the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding early next week. While a non-trivial amount of spread remains in guidance, the latest multi-model and ensemble consensus favors the better chances for severe weather on Monday remaining just south of our forecast area, well in line with SPC's Day 5 Convective Outlook area.
However, we will need to monitor forecast trends closely as the surface front looks like it will at least be in close enough proximity to our southern counties to where the potential for severe weather could still be realized there to some extent.
Progged frontal positioning, low-level jet orientation, and storm motion all appear that they will be favorable for training convection for at least a brief period of time near and just north of the surface front on Monday. When considering this and that climatologically high precipitable water values are expected to be present, it does appear that there could be a threat for heavy rainfall and at least minor flooding in the southern half or so of our forecast area on Monday (and potentially into Tuesday too, depending on how everything evolves). The Marginal Risk in WPC's Day 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlook seems appropriate for highlighting this potential for now.
Whether precipitation continues into Tuesday and Wednesday will depend on the extent to which the aforementioned troughs phase and where. Little to no phasing, or phasing occurring farther to the east, would favor conditions drying out towards the middle of next week. A favorable phasing, on other hand, would likely favor some chances for stratiform precipitation on one or both of these days.
Ogorek
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Aviation Forecast Concerns:
- Weak lake breeze wind shift likely for KORD/KMDW/KGYY this evening.
VFR cloud cover will decrease across the terminals early this afternoon, with increasing sun/mixing allowing west-southwest winds to become a little breezy with gusts near 20 kts. Winds will diminish and turn more northwest toward sunset, setting the stage for a weak lake breeze to develop for KGYY/KMDW/KORD (in that temporal order) this evening, with high-res guidance depicting winds turning light northeast around 00Z for KGYY, and after 02Z/03Z for KMDW and KORD. Winds will otherwise become light and variable at 5 kts or less for the overnight hours, before turning northeast toward morning and eventually easterly Friday afternoon.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the current TAF period, though rain (and possibly some TSRA) will likely arrive Friday evening just beyond the end of the current 30-hour forecast period.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
CNII2 | 1 mi | 29 min | WNW 8.9G | 49°F | 23°F | |||
OKSI2 | 4 mi | 119 min | W 4.1G | 49°F | ||||
CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 5 mi | 39 min | W 15G | 47°F | 25°F | |||
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 9 mi | 59 min | W 6G | 51°F | 30.01 | 28°F | ||
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN | 28 mi | 79 min | WNW 5.1G | 45°F | 30.07 | |||
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 37 mi | 39 min | W 13G | 43°F | 30.05 | 26°F | ||
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL | 37 mi | 119 min | WSW 7G | 43°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL | 9 sm | 65 min | WSW 11 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 50°F | 28°F | 43% | 30.05 | |
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL | 18 sm | 67 min | WSW 12G18 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 48°F | 28°F | 46% | 30.03 | |
KGYY GARY/CHICAGO INTL,IN | 19 sm | 73 min | SW 09G16 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 50°F | 28°F | 43% | 30.05 | |
KIGQ LANSING MUNI,IL | 22 sm | 23 min | W 13G17 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 50°F | 32°F | 50% | 30.04 | |
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL | 24 sm | 66 min | W 12G19 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 48°F | 27°F | 43% | 30.05 |
Chicago, IL,
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