Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:43AM||Sunset 5:49PM||Tuesday February 25, 2020 9:28 AM EST (14:28 UTC)||Moonrise 8:03AM||Moonset 7:48PM||Illumination 4%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Friendsville , PAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBGM 251143 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 643 AM EST Tue Feb 25 2020
SYNOPSIS. On and off light rain and a wintry mix will continue through the mid week. Colder air moving in Thursday will change rain over to lake effect snow. Lake effect snow showers continue this weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. 630 AM Update . No real changes with this update. Rain is confined largely to our northwestern zones, but will keep in chances for additional rain/drizzle into the late morning ahead of the next round which should start to work in by the evening.
Previous discussion continues below.
Rain showers are starting to finally work into our western forecast area with a weak shortwave passing over the lower Great Lakes as a weakening surface low tracks through the Ohio river valley. This will keep our best chances for precipitation this morning over our western zones, from the west-central Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and up through the western Mohawk valley.
Temperatures so far have been able to hover in the mid/upper 30s, but are already dropping back into the low/mid 30s across the higher elevations. Model soundings do indicate that warm nose closer to the surface with fairly weak warm air advection occurring across the region as the surface low continues eastward. So, where temperatures can fall to near freezing, some trace ice accumulations cannot be ruled out. However, QPF remains very light before surface temperatures can start to rise. Otherwise, look for precipitation to start off as mainly rain or a rain/snow mix.
Into the daytime hours, it is looking increasingly likely that a brief lull in steady, light rain will occur with perhaps some lingering drizzle before the next round of rain returns Tuesday evening. Temperatures again turn fairly mild, peaking in the low/mid 40s across the higher elevations and in the mid/upper 40s across the valleys. This should keep any lingering precipitation during the daytime hours as all rain.
Another shot of steady rain will move in from the south tonight with the surface low moving towards the mid-Atlantic coast. As temperatures fall back into the 30s once again, we could see a change back to a rain/snow mix with some spotty icing across the coldest spots. Some light snow accumulations cannot be ruled out across the hilltops as well as this batch moves northward through the forecast area. Light rain largely tapers off from south to north later Wednesday morning behind the passing wave. However, early Wednesday, another upper level low will swing into the lower Midwest, with a closed surface low developing by Wednesday afternoon. This will swing northeastward over Erie and Ontario, with a broad thermal gradient in place courtesy of the earlier mid-Atlantic low. This lake cutter will spread additional rain chances across our area late Wednesday afternoon into the evening. Temperatures will fortunately have risen into the 40s by then, so looking at mainly rain apart from perhaps the highest elevations. This does look to bring in a fairly decent period of steady, moderately heavy rain Wednesday evening before a change over to snow later Wednesday night, rain totals causing quick within-bank rises especially across the headwaters of the Susquehanna.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. 435 am update . Main concerns in the short term are focused on the potential for rain Wednesday evening . changing quickly to snow overnight with a couple inches of accumulation through Thursday morning, and possibly several inches in the higher terrain east of I-81 . and then the focus shifts to the potential for a long duration lake effect snow event mainly north of the Thruway going into the weekend.
Evolving low pressure system will be the catalyst for a brief period of steady/moderate rainfall across the region late Wednesday. The primary surface low is expected to bifurcate and track from the mid- Atlantic Wed evening into srn Quebec and nrn New England by Thursday afternoon. As this occurs a negatively tilted upper low will lift to the e/ne across the ern Great Lakes and transfer another surge of energy associated with a re- enforcing short wave in from the west, along with a strong push of Arctic air.
The system will entrain enough moisture from the south for around a half to three quarters of an inch of rain on the front end Wed evening. The cold air on the back side of the system should move in fast enough to change the already saturated column to snow, and produce an inch or less of snow in the lower elevation areas and west of I-81 . and several inches in the higher terrain of the Catskills and the srn Tug Hill through the day Thursday.
The event will transition from a synoptic one to a mesoscale one as the surface low lifts to the northeast out of the area, and the upper low wraps up across ern Canada and continues to rotate, nearly stationary over srn Quebec through Friday. The cold air will continue to pour in from the northwest during this time, and the low level winds are expected to remain roughly w/nwly during this time. The combination of cold Arctic air, persistent low level nw winds across Lake Ontario and enough moisture should provide most of the necessary ingredients for lake effect snow across portions of central NY. The best chance for heavy, quick-accumulating snow will likely be early on in the lake effect event (through Thur night), and most likely into the higher terrain of the Tug Hill where there will be a fair amount of up- slope enhancement as well. There still remains some uncertainty with respect to how much southward movement actually happens with the lake bands, and how deep (or shallow) the mixed layer gets.
Given the amount of uncertainty with this entire storm system (synoptic and lake effect) will continue to hold off on issuing any winter headlines at this time and await higher confidence as we get closer.
Temperatures will drop back to near normal for this time of year later this week with highs on Thursday in the lower 30s . falling into the teens Thur night and only rising into the 20s on Friday.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. 435 am update . The lake effect snow showers will likely persist Friday night and begin to slowly taper off through the day Saturday . eventually coming to an end on Sunday as high pressure builds eastward through the Great Lakes along with a much drier air mass. The ridge builds across central NY/ne PA early next week with mainly dry weather expected. A chance of rain and/or snow arrives later Monday as the ridge shifts east and the next low pressure system slides east across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures remain on the cool side of normal this weekend with highs only topping out in the 20s, and overnight lows in the single digits and teens.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions continue across most of our terminals, though light rain working into KRME and KSYR should lead to MVFR restrictions over the next couple of hours. Ceilings lower to MVFR across the rest of the area into the late morning, with a potential for some mist or drizzle to lead to a slight reduction in visibility as well. Another round of rain moves into KAVP by the late afternoon and will continue to move northward into central NY during the evening. This will bring in IFR and even LIFR ceilings and visibility overnight, with a chance for some snow to mix in especially across KSYR and KRME. Rain showers start to wind down across all terminals apart from KRME and KSYR into the end of the forecast period, but stubborn low clouds and lingering mist will keep in IFR restrictions where rain does end.
Otherwise, winds remain light tonight, finally turning generally to the east/northeast into Tuesday at around 2 to 4 kts.
Tuesday night through Wednesday . Restrictions with occasional rain; fuel alternate to IFR ceilings at times.
Wednesday night through early Thursday . restrictions due to rain changing to snow.
Thursday midday through Saturday . restrictions in lake effect snow showers . likely at KSYR-KRME; at times KITH - KBGM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . HLC NEAR TERM . HLC SHORT TERM . BJT LONG TERM . BJT AVIATION . HLC
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|Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY||24 mi||36 min||ESE 3||10.00 mi||Overcast||37°F||28°F||73%||1011.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBGM
Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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