Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:26AM||Sunset 8:44PM||Monday June 21, 2021 3:26 AM EDT (07:26 UTC)||Moonrise 4:17PM||Moonset 1:57AM||Illumination 86%|
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Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBGM 210715 AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 315 AM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021
SYNOPSIS. Hot and humid conditions today, along with an approaching strong cold front, will provide the fuel for scattered severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but large hail and locally heavy rainfall may also occur. Lingering showers exit Tuesday, with much cooler and drier air overtaking the region for midweek.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. 1235 AM update . Instability aloft along with weak waves embedded within southwesterly flow, is still managing a few convective cells in the Southern Tier as well as Otsego County; even small hail was briefly evident via minor scatter spikes showing up on radar. This zone of isolated convection will gradually shift northward for the rest of overnight, into the Finger Lakes-NY Thruway Corridor. Most locations will not see anything but there will be still be a few cells. Meanwhile, patchy valley fog and low stratus will develop elsewhere, especially Twin Tiers. Main concern continues to be severe weather event anticipated for Monday afternoon as discussed below.
Previous discussion . The potential severe weather event for Monday afternoon is taking shape. We expect hot and humid conditions to develop by late morning, with CAPE values building to possibly more than 2000 j/kg during the late afternoon.
Bulk shear values will approach 30-35 knots, plenty high enough to support organized severe convection given the degree of instability. In addition, the 3km NAM projected helicity values between 170 and 225 over our northern forecast area, supporting rotating updrafts.
Monday looks to be a very active day especially from the mid- afternoon onwards. Some of these storms may become severe with damaging winds, large hail, and possibly even a tornado. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms remains from SPC, while a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall remains from WPC.
Any early morning convection is expected to lift out of the area by the mid-morning, leading to much of the area breaking out with some sunshine. With our region firmly in the warm sector and an approaching cold front from the west, this will allow the region to destabilize. In addition, lapse rates will be steepening and shear values will be in the 40-50kt range. Some helicity looks to be present as well, especially along and north of the NY Thruway corridor. PWATs look to approach 2 inches, although this has fortunately trended a bit downward compared to prior model cycles. The approaching cold front will act as the main lifting mechanism. This will all set the stage for thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon (mainly after 3PM) with some of these storms likely becoming severe. In addition, with the elevated PWATs, locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well.
The other story for Monday will be the hot and humid conditions. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. With dew points in the mid to upper 60s, heat indices may approach the mid 90s in some spots, especially in the valleys (this is close to Heat Advisory criteria in NY). Confidence was not high enough to issue any Heat Advisories yet, but did mention the heat in our HWO. Will let the midnight shift tonight take another look at the heat indices and decide if any Heat Advisories will be needed for Monday.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday night, but the threat for severe thunderstorms will be diminishing as the evening progresses. Main concern for Monday night is the possibility for continued locally heavy rainfall. Behind the cold front, temperatures will be dropping into the 50s for the majority of the area by late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. 315 AM Update .
Showers quickly wrap up after 0Z Wednesday with high pressure beginning to build in. Skies clear out with a cooler, drier airmass in place (850mb temperatures dropping back into the single digits) as winds decouple. This spells out ideal radiational cooling conditions, with temperatures expected to plummet into the 40s across most of the area. Some of the higher terrain of the Catskills and northern Oneida county may drop into the upper 30s.
Dry weather continues the rest of Wednesday and Wednesday night with high pressure firmly in place. Temperatures will be on the cool side, only peaking in the upper 60s and lower 70s in spite of abundant sunshine. Expect another chilly night, though not as cold as the previous, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s under clear skies and light winds.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. 315 AM Update .
Dry weather continues into the end of the work week with the ridge overhead, allowing for warming temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Highs will be more or less seasonal, peaking in the upper 70s and lower 80s both Thursay and Friday. The ridge shifts eastward into Friday night while a trough digs into the Upper Midwest. Tightening southwest flow overnight into Saturday will help to advect in a warmer, moisture rich airmass with chances for showers returning by early Saturday morning. Showers and storms become likely into Saturday afternoon, continuing through Sunday, ahead of an approaching cold front that should finally work through Sunday evening. With a deep warm cloud layer indicated in soundings and precipitable water approaching 2 inches, we will need to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall. That said, there is still a little uncertainty regarding timing. Latest model runs continue to push back on the timing of the onset of rainfall, keeping most of the area dry well into Friday night. Otherwise, expect overnight lows through the weekend to be in the 50s and 60s, and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Active period anticipated with multiple thunderstorms in the region. First, small clusters of nocturnal thunderstorms will impact KITH around 06Z-08Z; and then KSYR 08Z-10Z. For KELM-KRME thunder is at least possible so monitor for amendments. KELM will probably also experience some valley fog near dawn due to moisture from earlier rainfall. Meanwhile, marine layer moisture will sneak across KAVP and briefly KBGM for a window of fuel alternate ceilings early this morning. Conditions improve to VFR as south-southwesterly winds pick up, but then scattered strong to severe gusty thunderstorms are expected this afternoon-early evening as a cold front runs into very warm and humid unstable air. Confidence is high enough to include in TAFs; timing may need to be narrowed or adjusted in coming updates. If a storm core goes directly over a terminal, hail could occur. Winds will veer westerly behind the storms in the evening, with minor ceiling restrictions forming overnight.
Late Monday night through Tuesday morning . Some rain showers with MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings redeveloping.
Tuesday afternoon through Friday . Mainly VFR, though valley fog possible late nights-early mornings at KELM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.
SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . BJG/DJP/MDP SHORT TERM . HLC LONG TERM . HLC AVIATION . MDP
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|Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY||24 mi||34 min||SW 6||10.00 mi||Fair||70°F||66°F||87%||1006.1 hPa|
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Wind History from BGM (wind in knots)
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