Elmhurst, IL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elmhurst, IL

May 15, 2024 10:02 PM CDT (03:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:29 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM
Moonrise 12:24 PM   Moonset 2:10 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202405160930;;286089 Fzus53 Klot 160247 Nshlot
nearshore marine forecast national weather service chicago/romeoville il 947 pm cdt Wed may 15 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
lmz740>742-160930- winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il- wilmette harbor to northerly island il- northerly island to calumet harbor il- 947 pm cdt Wed may 15 2024

Rest of tonight - North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east around 5 kt late. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 kt diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 ft building to 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ700
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elmhurst, IL
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Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 152345 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 645 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected area-wide Thursday afternoon and evening. A few of these storms could become strong to severe and contain hail and gusty winds late afternoon and early evening northwest of a Mendota to Chicago line.

- Periods of showers and storms may occur Friday into Saturday, but looking mostly dry for the weekend.

- Active pattern looks to develop next week bringing several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Through Thursday Night:

With the recent upper-low around our region finally drifting southeast this afternoon, dry conditions are expected through tonight amid passing mid to upper-level clouds.

Focus then turns to developing convection over northeast NM and southeast CO this afternoon as it grows upscale across the central Great Plains overnight. A resulting convectively- enhanced wave should traverse somewhere across central Illinois late Thursday morning into mid-afternoon. Potential for the coverage of convection into our area will hinge both on the degree of low-level moistening as well as any changes in the expected timing/location of the wave. The expected late morning arrival of the wave will align with gradually increasing surface-based instability, so any delay in arrival of the wave would further support increasing coverage of convection. As for the low-level moisture profile, surface high pressure still anchored over LA this afternoon has continued to suppress low- level Gulf moisture return. Therefore, most of the increase in low-level moisture into the CWA will be highly driven by ET and from recent rainfall. Given only modest mid-level lapse rates and dew points struggling to rise much above 60F, CAPE profiles support more of a scattered pulse-like set-up during the afternoon hours.

If the convective wave remains well south or does not fully materialize during the morning, the thermodynamic and kinematic field will become increasingly favorable for a few strong to possibly severe storms with small hail and gusty winds across the northwest third of the CWA ahead of a late-arriving cold front. This scenario remains conditional on several of the above factors as well as the ability for any storms to stave off mid- level entrainment.

Chances of convection will wane after sunset and with the passage of the slowing cold front from northwest to southeast Thursday night.

Kluber

Friday through Wednesday:

In the wake of Thursday's showers and thunderstorms a separate disturbance moving across the southern CONUS may be expansive enough on the north side for renewed shower and thunderstorm development into portions of the area on Friday, particularly south of I-80. Depending on how how slowly this feature drifts east, precipitation may linger into Saturday morning. The GFS continues to be most favorable for precipitation lingering into Friday with a broader extent to precipitation north of the low.
Meanwhile higher-res guidance starting to capture this time range has precipitation shifting east a bit more quickly and keeps much of the precipitation south of the area. Accordingly, PoPs have been lowered a bit with this update to account for this trend. Nevertheless, there remains a window for a few thunderstorms to develop in our south in the afternoon on Friday.

Other than a few showers potentially lingering into Saturday, dry weather is forecast for the weekend with surface high pressure settling over the region in the wake of a dry cold frontal passage late Saturday. This will set up what looks to be a great late-spring weekend with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s inland from the lake (expect upper 60s to near 70 near the shore).

Confidence is increasing in a return to a more active pattern early to mid next week as the upper jet begins to orient southwest to northeast across the western half of the CONUS.
This would allow for multiple disturbances to potentially lift across the region. Accordingly, long-range ensemble meteograms highlight this as a period favorable for accumulating precipitation paired with a signal for an unstable air mass building across the region. While there is still plenty of time for the details to be ironed out, this will be a time to watch for severe weather and heavy rainfall somewhere in the region.

Petr

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Aviation Messages:

- Scattered TSRA possible Thursday afternoon into early evening.

Quiet, VFR aviation weather is in place across the terminals this evening, and will remain so into Thursday morning. Surface high pressure centered northeast of the Great Lakes will supply light mainly northeast surface winds tonight (though winds may go light/variable for a time), before turning southeast Thursday morning and eventually south by midday.

A mid-level disturbance currently across the Plains will approach then approach the area by midday/early afternoon Thursday, with an increasing potential for scattered thunderstorms to affect the terminals. A few spotty elevated showers could work into parts of northern IL during the morning, though they will be fighting drier air and a lack of low-level instability. Better potential looks to arrive early to mid afternoon. Have moved timing for the Chicago terminals up an hour or so to 19Z, based on latest high-res CAM trends, with the best window roughly 19-23Z for KORD/KMDW. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA may linger into the early evening as well, though confidence/coverage appears too low for a TAF mention beyond a VCSH at this distance. Surface wind direction may get a bit messy behind the afternoon convection as well, with a couple of high-res models suggesting a shift back to southeast by early evening. Majority of other guidance suggests a south-southwest direction, and have maintained a 180 deg wind into the evening for KORD/KMDW, though will have to monitor trends in wind details tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
OKSI2 17 mi123 min N 4.1G5.1 54°F
CNII2 18 mi33 min NNW 4.1G9.9 52°F 44°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 20 mi33 min NNW 7G8 57°F 52°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 24 mi45 min N 4.1G6 53°F 29.8748°F
45186 34 mi33 min 7.8G12 54°F 54°F1 ft
45187 42 mi33 min 9.7G12 53°F 52°F2 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 45 mi93 min NE 4.1G4.1 54°F 29.90
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 49 mi63 min NNW 4.1G4.1 55°F 29.89


Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KORD CHICAGO O'HARE INTL,IL 6 sm71 minNNE 0910 smPartly Cloudy55°F41°F58%29.87
KMDW CHICAGO MIDWAY INTL,IL 12 sm69 minNNE 0610 smPartly Cloudy57°F39°F51%29.88
KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL 15 sm70 minNNE 0410 smClear54°F43°F67%29.89
KDPA DUPAGE,IL 16 sm70 minE 0610 smClear57°F39°F51%29.87
KLOT LEWIS UNIVERSITY,IL 21 sm27 minNE 0710 smClear57°F41°F55%29.90
Link to 5 minute data for KORD


Wind History from ORD
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Chicago, IL,




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