Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday July 29, 2021 2:12 AM PDT (09:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:50PMMoonset 11:00AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 290352 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 852 PM PDT Wed Jul 28 2021

DISCUSSION. Drastically different conditions today compared to yesterday. Along with much drier conditions, afternoon temperatures today were about 20 to 25 degrees warmer than yesterday's readings for much of the area along and east of I-5. Radar is much less busy as well. In fact, aside from some light returns associated with the Jack Fire earlier this afternoon, the greatest amount of returns were associated with a bat migration out in the Lava Beds area this evening. Quiet conditions are expected this evening and overnight and no updates are needed to the forecast at this time. For more details on the hot temperatures and thunderstorms over the coming days, see the previous discussion below. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 29/00Z TAF Cycle . All areas, including the coast and coastal waters, are VFR and should remain so the rest of today through sunset. Shallow cumulus developing along and near the Umpqua Divide of Josephine and Douglas counties east- northeastward to northern Klamath County continue to show little in the way of vertical development, so it's very likely that we'll make it through the evening with no thunderstorms in our forecast area.

Smoke from wildfires is not too much of an issue per monitoring sensors and satellite, except for the Jack Fire east of KRBG and west of Diamond Lake. However, the smoke from the Jack fire is confined to a small area right around the fire.

This evening into tonight, lower IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to return to the coast over North Bend and other areas of the coast mainly north of Port Orford.

Thursday afternoon and evening isolated to scattered high based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and near the Cascades, Siskiyous, and Marble Mountains. Expect little in the way of rain and isolated to scattered lightning and gusty winds in and near any thunderstorms during that time period. ~BTL/Sargeant

MARINE. Updated 845 PM PDT Wednesday, 28 July 2021 . High pressure centered to the west and lower pressure inland will continue to bring general northerly winds to the coastal waters through at least early next week. The ingredient that will roughen up the seas a bit is the northerly winds over the south of Cape Blanco due to a weak to moderate thermal trough developing Thursday morning and continuing into early next week. Models begin to differ around Tuesday, with some expecting northerlies to increase and others showing them decreasing. ~BTL

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 525 PM PDT Wed Jul 28 2021/

DISCUSSION . A high pressure ridge is centered over the area with a trough to the west. The high pressure ridge is forecast to strengthen over the region Thursday and Friday resulting in very hot temperatures for inland areas, especially west of the Cascades. Monsoon moisture will also move up from the south and into the area during this period. As a result, models are showing the potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms over inland areas Thursday afternoon/evening with increasing chances on Friday.

This afternoon and evening, there is sufficient moisture and weak instability for some cloud buildups are expected over the south- central Oregon Cascades and eastward. Models continue to indicate a slight chance for thunderstorms, mainly in northern Klamath and northwest Lake County. The chance for thunderstorms increases Thursday and Friday as additional moisture and upper level shortwaves move up into the area and combine with daytime instability. For Thursday, expect some isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers to develop for areas inland of the coastal mountains. Models are highlighting the best chance for scattered thunderstorms on Thursday across an area from western Siskiyou northeastward into southern/eastern Jackson, eastern Douglas, Klamath, and far northwest Lake County. Overall, models show lifted index values of -1.5 to -4 over much of the area with sufficient mid level moisture for storms. However, there remains some differences in the track of weak shortwaves moving up into the area that will trigger storms. This adds some uncertain in exactly how much thunderstorms will develop on Thursday. We will continue to evaluate the Thursday thunderstorm forecast and update as needed. On Friday, the chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms increases some for inland areas as models show continued daytime instability along with additional moisture and upper level shortwaves moving up into the area from the south and southeast. Overall, models highlight the best chance for scattered storms on Friday to occur for areas from the western foothills of the Cascades eastward as well as from the Siskiyou mountains southward.

Heat risk is also a concern Thursday and Friday as models and guidance indicate a significant warming trend, especially for locations west of the Cascades. High temperatures are forecast to rise into the lower to mid 100s for valleys in Douglas, Josephine, Jackson and western/central Siskiyou Counties. Additionally, overnight lows will remain quite warm, in the mid 60s to lower 70s, offering little relief from the heat. An excessive heat warming (NPWMFR) remains in effect for these areas Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.

This weekend into Monday, temperatures will trend lower but still expect continued very warm conditions west of the Cascades. A chance for showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms is expected for inland areas on Saturday. We have leaned towards the National Blend of Models forecast which indicates a potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward with isolated showers and thunderstorms in eastern Douglas central/eastern Jackson and western/central Siskiyou Counties. Then, on Sunday and Monday, a slight chance for showers/thunderstorms continues, especially for areas from the Cascades east. The track and timing of shortwaves will be a significant factor in where and how much showers and thunderstorms develop over the area.

FIRE WEATHER . Updated 200 PM Wednesday 28 July 2021 . Some cumulus build ups are occurring over the southern Oregon Cascades, and this is where our afternoon and evening thunderstorms are most likely today, but overall thunder risk remains low for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Conditions have started to warm up and dry out today, however the drying trend will reverse itself as deep southerly flow will continue to bring monsoonal moisture into the area through Monday. It will be quite hot through Friday over the inland areas, especially the west side, with the hottest day on Friday.

High resolution model guidance is showing some terrain-based thunderstorm initiation on Thursday over portions of Siskiyou and Trinity Counties in California as well as over the Cascades and the Umpqua Divide in Oregon. Additionally, weak short wave is expected to move over the area from the Lake Tahoe area which could initiate some additional convection during peak heating in northern Klamath County. These factors have us thinking that storms could be scattered in these areas, and have issued a red flag warning for portions of Fire Zone 280 in California and for portions of Fire Zones 621, 622, 623, 617, and 624 in southern Oregon. Elsewhere, the triggers remain relatively weak and isolated storms will be possible areas east of the Cascades.

A similar set up will occur on Friday, but with additional moisture moving in at the mid levels and a stronger trigger moving up from the Lake Tahoe area, think that the chances for thunderstorms will be scattered over a larger area of southern Oregon and northern California, largely east of the Cascades so have issued a fire weather watch for most of the same areas, but have expanded it eastward to include portions of Klamath, Lake, and Modoc Counties for Friday afternoon and evening. Please see the RFWMFR for more details.

It is worth noting that some of our west side valleys could experience thunderstorms should our high resolution guidance be on track, but these storms will likely flow over the valleys from the surrounding mountains, and be more isolated in nature, this is especially true for Fire zones 620 and 622 both Thursday and Friday.

The moisture will continue moving into our area throughout the weekend, bringing additional cloud cover, some cooler temperatures this weekend, and hopefully some widespread showers. Instability remains relatively high; so a few showers may produce some lightning, but storms should remain isolated despite the scattered nature of showers over the weekend.

There are no thunderstorms currently in the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, but this may change, as the medium-range models indicate that, while it will be more stable during this interval, there is some lingering instablity and some moisture to work with, maybe enough to support some isolated activity. Chances are, however, that the thunderstorm threat will push eastward toward Idaho as the general pattern shifts once again to bring us near-normal temperatures and drying humidities next week. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for ORZ617-621>625. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for ORZ023-024-026. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for ORZ617-621>624.

CA . Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ280-281-284-285. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ280. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Friday for CAZ080>082.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

MNF/CC/BMS/BTL


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi54 min S 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 59°F1016.3 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi42 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 52°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi19 minNNW 510.00 miFair77°F52°F42%1016.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSIY

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1 day agoSW11W7E3E3CalmE3------SE10S14S11SW10SW8NE4CalmCalmSW3SE5SE3SW3S3SE5Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
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Thu -- 03:45 AM PDT     5.72 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:08 AM PDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:47 PM PDT     6.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:02 PM PDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:56 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.144.95.65.75.34.43.22.11.20.811.834.35.46.16.35.95.1432.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:47 AM PDT     5.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:09 AM PDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:06 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:48 PM PDT     6.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:04 PM PDT     2.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:56 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.144.95.65.75.34.43.32.11.20.811.834.35.46.16.35.95.1432.32.1

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