Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hornbrook, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 5:07PM Saturday January 16, 2021 12:32 AM PST (08:32 UTC) Moonrise 10:07AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hornbrook, CA
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location: 41.9, -122.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 160426 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 826 PM PST Fri Jan 15 2021

UPDATE.

Some low level and high level clouds could mess with the fog development in the valleys tonight. Current dewpoint and temperature spreads are between 3 to 8 degrees in a few of the valleys. We're not saying fog won't form, but it seems unlikely that it will become widespread and dense by tomorrow morning, especially in the Rogue Valley. It should be noted that locations along coast are currently in the thick fog.

-Smith

SHORT TERM. /Issued 232 PM PST Fri Jan 15 2021/ A frontal boundary is pushing across the forecast area today, and light rain has been observed in most areas today, but rain amounts are generally a few hundredths of an inch or less. Tonight or tomorrow morning, enough moisture will linger in the low levels to generate at least patchy fog/freezing fog across valleys. On Saturday upper level ridging will move overhead, and once any morning fog burns off, partly cloudy skies are expected with generally high clouds streaming over the ridge. High temperatures Saturday will generally be about 5 degrees above normal, but we have toned down high temperatures some in valleys most susceptible to longer- lasting fog/low clouds like the Rogue and Umpqua.

Another weak front will push into the coast on Sunday and bring light rain mainly to the areas from the Cascades westward, particularly from the Umpqua Divide northward. More fog is possible ahead of this front, focused mainly in valleys west of the Cascades while areas east of the Cascades dry out some compared to tonight.

Behind the front on Sunday, strong northerly flow will develop, first impacting areas on the Coast Range and in the Mount Shasta City area. We've added some gusty winds into the forecast for Sunday night in those areas, generally gusting to around 30 mph.

LONG TERM. /Issued 232 PM PST Fri Jan 15 2021/ Monday January 18th through Friday January 22nd . Upper level ridging will be the main weather influencer for much of the extended. There is good model agreement and high confidence, however, that we'll see a return to more active weather by the end of the week. In the meantime, conditions will remain largely dry with the possibility of overnight and morning fog and low clouds for the valleys.

The extended period begins under deep north to northeasterly flow with the area under the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge and a trough digging just offshore of California. Meanwhile, another shortwave slides down the eastern side of the ridge over along the OR/ID border. This is a classic set up for an east wind event across the area and guidance is indicating wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph possible across the Coast Range and higher terrain across the area. Winds look to be strongest Monday afternoon, then will ease late Monday night into Tuesday. A fairly dry air mass will be in place during this event, so this should limit fog and low cloud development for valleys Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Pressure gradients weaken late Tuesday as upper level ridging nudges into the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday and quiet weather will continue through at least Wednesday evening. After then, models diverge on the timing of when the next system arrives. The GFS is faster and has a the next front arriving Wednesday night, whereas the EC is slower, bringing the next front Thursday evening. Given the dry air mass that will be in place, the GFS is likely to ambitious and the atmosphere will need more time to moisten up. Have leaned toward the National Blend of Models for the forecast, which keeps the area dry until Thursday night. At that point, guidance indicates a change to much cooler and wetter pattern with much lower snow levels. Upper level troughs will move south into the region with the trajectory tracking along or close to the west coast border. This is a favorable pattern for low snow levels, where accumulating snow is possible for the lower passes north of Grants Pass and even possibly down to some valley floors late this week and over the weekend. As always with low elevation snow forecasts, confidence is low, especially at this time frame, so stay tuned for updates as the forecast becomes more clear. /BR-y

AVIATION. For the 16/00Z TAFs . Low level stratus is currently covering most of the valleys west of the Cascades. This MVFR stratus should inhibit fog formation for the remainder of the evening. Given the temperature and dew points spreads MVFR and IFR visibilities seem likely in many of the valleys tonight. Along the coast LIFR visibilities are already occur and will likely continue for most of tonight. The fog should also be slow to burn off tomorrow morning.

-Smith

MARINE. Updated 800 PM PST Friday, 15 Jan 2021 . Long period west swell will build to a peak tonight into early Saturday morning around 16 feet at 16 seconds, as high pressure builds over the waters.

Light northerly winds continue Saturday with seas diminishing into Saturday night. Seas will briefly diminish below 10 ft on Saturday night. But, a new long period west swell builds into the waters Sunday morning and accompanies the next cold front. North winds will also increase, with a gale watch now in effect for the outer waters south of Gold Beach from late Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Elsewhere in the waters, north winds will likely be at advisory strength with high and steep seas. Of note, seas Sunday morning through Sunday evening will be a mix of west swell 7 ft at 13 seconds, west 6 to 13 ft at 20 to 24 seconds and steep to very steep wind seas. This will result in high, steep to very steep seas over the waters. As long period swell builds Sunday evening into early Monday, expect large breaking waves along the coast and dangerous bar crossings.

The long period west swell will peak Sunday night into Monday morning, around 15 to 16 feet at 19 seconds with combined seas of 15 to 18 ft. With high pressure offshore and a thermal trough at the coast, north winds will remain gusty and likely reach another peak on Monday with gales possible again in the southern portion of the outer waters. Meantime, seas are likely to remain high and steep through Monday evening. -DW/CC

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Beach Hazards Statement from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for ORZ021-022. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM PST Saturday for ORZ021-022.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 86 mi44 min Calm G 1 47°F 53°F1027.2 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 96 mi22 min N 3.9 G 5.8 52°F1027.4 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA9 mi39 minSW 30.25 miFog33°F31°F92%1031.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSIY

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmNW4NE4E6CalmW4NW4CalmSW3CalmN5CalmCalmN4CalmSW5CalmNE4N3NE3SE3CalmSW3
1 day agoCalmE3NE3SW3NE5W5SW6SW4E4S3S33W3--S5SW3CalmCalmSW3E6CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS12S15S18W6E4NW3SW84CalmW3SW7S43NE4CalmW4SW5W5E4CalmSE3N5N5E4

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:13 AM PST     6.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:34 AM PST     3.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:13 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:16 PM PST     7.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:07 PM PST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:10 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.96.16.66.45.74.73.83.23.23.74.65.76.67.176.14.73.11.50.4-0.10.21.22.6

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM PST     6.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:35 AM PST     3.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
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Sat -- 01:17 PM PST     7.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:12 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:08 PM PST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:10 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.96.16.66.45.74.73.83.23.23.74.65.76.67.176.14.83.11.60.4-0.10.21.12.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.