Sunrise 6:06 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:31 AM   Moonset 9:04 AM

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FXUS66 KMFR 292153 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 253 PM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SHORT TERM
Tonight 4/29 through Monday night 4/30...Satellite imagery shows some cloud cover associated with an unstable atmosphere with RADAR showing show showers across portions of southern Oregon and western Siskiyou County in northern California. Most of northern California is experiencing mostly clear skies. The showers and clouds are part of a frontal boundary that is swung through the area earlier today. Web cameras showed some reduced visibility due to snowfall near Willamette Pass, but snow was not accumulating on the roads. The showers will continue to dissipate over the next several hours.

Tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies across much of the area.
However, high resolution ensemble members are showing some clearing in Josephine County around midnight to 3 AM. This could let temperatures fall to freezing. With the National Blend of models signifying an 80% chance of reaching freezing in the Illinois Valley, have decided to upgrade the freeze watch to a freeze warning. Higher elevations of Douglas and Jackson Counties may reach freezing as well, but the valleys should remain relatively warm.

On Tuesday, another weak trough pushes largely north of southern Oregon. This will bring a few showers to the coast, Douglas County and the Cascades from Crater Lake northward. Precipitation will be light, and snowfall accumulations will be around 1-3 inches in the Cascades. GEFS and EC ensembles suggest a trace of rain in Medford proper, but not measuring. Have gone with the NBM on this.

Tuesday night could see temperatures approach freezing again for the Illinois Valley, but want to see how tonight plays out before issuing a freeze watch for tomorrow as some of the same issues will exist with cloud cover associated with this front. Elsewhere, temperatures will be cooler than normal. -Schaaf


LONG TERM
Wednesday through Monday, May 1-6, 2024...
The first week of May will feature fairly typical spring weather.
The pattern will remain progressive, at least initially, as WNW flow persists. One trough will exit to the east on Wednesday, so heights will rise with surface high pressure building in strongly by Wednesday morning. This will result in another cold morning east of the Cascades and in most of NorCal with areas of frost and even possibly freezing temperatures for the valleys west of the Cascades.
Highest probabilities for temperatures <=32F are in the typically colder spots like the Illinois and Applegate valleys (50-80% chance), while locations like the Rogue Valley and Umpqua Basin are more likely to have temperatures bottom out in the mid to upper 30s.
This could still bring frost, so those that have done some early gardening should consider covering sensitive vegetation or moving it temporarily indoors. The short wave upper ridge will be over the area resulting in at least a partly sunny, milder afternoon with temperatures getting back closer to (but not quite) seasonal normals. Expect highs in the mid 60s west of the Cascades with mid- upper 50s in NE Cal and over the East Side.

The fast flow pattern across the Gulf of Alaska has been causing some havoc in the timing/strength of another disturbance and short wave trough expected to scoot by to our north and east Wednesday night into Thursday. But, this system could bring another shot of light precipitation to parts of the area. Recent 12z deterministic GFS/EC/Canadian models are showing this system digging farther south than the last several model runs. And, a larger percentage of members from the 12z ensembles are also showing a stronger system. That said, still about half of all members show a dry scenario (for Medford) and are closer to the weaker 12z NAM. Given the uncertainty, going to stick with the NBM, which has increased PoPs modestly (to 30-50%) along the coast, north of the Rogue/Umpqua Divide and over to the Cascades, but has kept things dry across NorCal. Best chance of showers (20%) here in Medford is Thursday morning. We'll see if any further adjustments are necessary.
Overall, temperatures have trended downward a little for Thursday, especially across NW sections due to the potential for increased cloud cover and at least light precip.

The upper trough shifts into eastern Oregon and western Idaho by Thursday evening, so it should dry out again, with another short wave ridge building into SW Oregon/NorCal by Friday. Only modest warming is expected with a warming air mass aloft, primarily since yet another stronger system is forecast to dive southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska. This could bring cloud cover back in over the area late Friday afternoon and there's a good chance (40-60%) of rain along the coast by Friday evening. This system will bring a change to cooler, wetter weather for all areas Friday night/Saturday with a fairly high probability of rain/showers (40-80% chance).

The upper trough is likely to remain over the area next weekend with a showery pattern persisting Saturday night into Sunday. The cooler, wetter pattern could last into early next week as model ensembles/clusters/NBM are showing another wetter system arriving around next Monday. The Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook is also showing the bullseye of higher odds for cooler, wetter weather (60-70% chance) squarely over NorCal and Oregon.
-Spilde



AVIATION
29/18Z TAFs...A frontal system is moving through at this time with a mix of VFR/MVFR and showers. Partial terrain obscurations can occur in heavier, more persistent showers.
Showers are most numerous near and west of the Cascades, but we can't rule out an isolated shower here or there over the East Side and also near the Siskiyous in NW Siskiyou County. The remainder of the area will be dry. Expect some gusty breezes this afternoon/evening, especially east of the Cascades. Gusts up to 30kt are possible at Klamath Falls. Conditions become mostly VFR this evening, then another front brings a renewed risk of lower ceilings (MVFR) and showers to the coast and Umpqua Tuesday morning. -Spilde



MARINE
Updated 230 PM Monday, April 29, 2024...Seas will be elevated and hazardous to small craft today through Tuesday morning due to a combination of wind seas and increasing west northwest swell. Low pressure will move north of the waters Tuesday with seas transitioning to high and steep WNW swells near 10 feet Tuesday afternoon and evening. Weak high pressure will move in Wednesday with moderate north winds, highest south of Cape Blanco. Then, another front will move through the waters Wednesday night and onshore Thursday. Calmer conditions are expected Friday.

-Spilde/Smith



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-370.

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Crescent City
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Mon -- 01:37 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:58 AM PDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:33 AM PDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
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Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

Crescent City
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Mon -- 01:37 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:57 AM PDT     6.37 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:11 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:32 AM PDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 PM PDT     4.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
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Medford, OR,