Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hornbrook, CA

FXUS66 KMFR 071202 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 402 AM PST Sat Dec 7 2024

Updated AVIATION Discussion

DISCUSSION

Overview:

First round of precipitation today/tonight will be followed by riding aloft which will lead to a dry spell through about Tuesday.
Then our attention turns to an active weather pattern midweek through next weekend. During this stretch we will have light to moderate rainfall amounts along and near the coast, and we will see higher elevation snowfall that doesn't appear to be too impactful at this time. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures expected through this forecast with the potential for fog/freezing fog both Sunday and Monday mornings.

Further Details:

Closed low over the Gulf of Alaska is progged to shift southward and eventually push inland around Vancouver Island. This will bring our next round or precipitation through the area later today and tonight. Not expecting impactful rainfall or snowfall during this timeframe. In the wake of this weakening low over Canada, we will be under a ridge of high pressure through Tuesday. The vorticity maxima will pass around early/mid afternoon with the heaviest of the rainfall expected during the afternoon. The probability for 0.25" or more of rainfall along and near the coast is around 40 to 80 percent over a six hour period this afternoon.
However, the probability for 0.50" or greater is 30 percent or less for the same period. Amounts generally should top our around 0.25"-0.50" with a couple isolated areas potentially getting over half an inch. Snow levels are dropping through the day as precipitation is falling; however, not going to see much accumulation as precipitation will be coming to an end once snow levels drop below 5000 feet. Only expecting a few inches of snowfall, and this would be mainly in the Cascades before precipitation ends.

Riding will follow this system and this should allow for areas of fog to develop in westside valleys where rainfall accumulated.
Given the potential for temperatures below freezing, we could see isolated areas of freezing fog which could lead to a light glaze of ice on elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.

The ridge looks to break down Tuesday into Wednesday as another active pattern looks to develop. The peak of this activity could be Saturday with potential impacts across the majority of the area which could include heavy rainfall, higher elevation snowfall, and breezy to gusty winds. This is still a week out so will need to monitor trends.

Lastly, want to mention the fact we will have a couple dry afternoons Monday and Tuesday when minimum RH values could drop down to around 20 percent. This would be mainly for northern California and some areas on the eastside.

-Guerrero
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