Wednesday, November20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Raynham Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:21PM Wednesday November 20, 2019 9:26 AM EST (14:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:14AMMoonset 2:22PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night and Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Wed Nov 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. An ocean storm tracks well south and east of the waters today into tonight. High pressure builds across the waters Thursday. A cold front moves across the waters late Friday and Friday night. Another weather system passes to our south over the weekend, bringing a chance of rain Saturday into Sunday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raynham Center, MA
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location: 41.9, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fx/fxus61.kbox.afd.box.txt <- there really should be an address herer AEFXUS61 KBOX 201229 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston Norton MA 729 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2019

SYNOPSIS Low pressure passing southeast of Southern New England to bring continued overcast skies and a period of light showers today into early tonight. Rain may mix with wet snow in the Worcester Hills into the Berkshires but with little to no accumulation.

High pressure building in from the west Thu yields dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. Milder and breezy Friday ahead of an approaching cold front that may be accompanied by scattered showers late Friday Fri evening. Cool dry weather lingers much of Saturday, followed by coastal low pressure bringing a risk of rain snow Sat night into Sunday morning. As this low exits, a drying trend with seasonable temperatures should follow early next week.

NEAR TERM UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING 730 am update ...

Not much change from previous forecast. Despite surface low well east of New England over Georges Bank, mid level negative tilt trough over the region will amplify from an open wave to a closed wave and deep layer moisture will increase. This will result in areas of light rain becoming more widespread as the day progresses especially this afternoon and early evening.

Ptype will be all rain but if heavier bands develop can't rule out some snow mixing in at times especially Berkshires and Worcester Hills. Just seeing this now as KORH just flipped over to light snow but with a temp of 35F. But with temps above freezing roads should remain wet.

Temp well below normal today with highs not moving much from their current values, mid to upper 30s high terrain to lower to mid 40s elsewhere. About 10 degs colder than normal. Earlier discussion below.

================================================================= Early this morning, a mid upper-level low analyzed per water vapor imagery over the PA MD border is helping to draw moisture northward across much of Southern New England, amid a weak northerly near- surface drainage flow regime. This mid upper feature is also contributing to surface cyclogenesis SE of the 40N 70W benchmark early this morning, with infrared satellite and GOES-East GLM products indicating cooling cloud tops and even some lightning, an indication of ongoing organizing deepening. While this distant coastal system remains that way today - Southern New England will feel some fringe influences from this system over the next day or so.

Over the next few hours through, we continue to monitor for the potential for trace icing associated with pockets of spotty freezing drizzle, mainly in the hills in northern Worcester County and into the eastern slopes of the Berkshires. SPS remains in effect to address spotty icing impact into this morning's commute. Mesonet observations early this morning indicate temperatures in these areas have more-or-less remained in the low to mid 30s, coolest readings in western Hampden Hampshire Franklin Counties. With moisture being shallow and below the ice crystal nuclei activation region per 00z RAOBs and BUFKIT forecast soundings, suspect the very light echoes moving northward per radar this morning could result in spotty freezing drizzle. Marginal temps will likely mitigate to spotty potential - thus not envisioning a need for a short-fused winter advisory. Temps elsewhere early this morning are above freezing and could see some light drizzle as precip bands lift north but most areas stay cloudy dry into the AM commute.

Into the rest of today, looking at a pretty cool raw day with cold advection most of the day and northerly flow tending to increase through the day. Most models and ensembles show the 500 mb trough closing off as it pulls off the NJ coast into the waters south of Nantucket by late this aftn. Though spotty light rain or snow showers possible through mid-day, most global and several high- res guidance sources including the HREF mean, HRRR and the NAM-3km nest tend to blossom precip into the mid late afternoon from a Westfield-Providence line north east. Looks like this occurs as moisture from the distant coastal low wraps around and interacts with progged 700-500 mb inverted trough extending NW from center of the closed low in the vicinity of Nantucket. Moisture depth fills over time and thus could see rain mix with wet snow at times with negligible if any accumulation from the Worcester Hills into the Berkshires where temps may be marginal. Should be mostly rain south east and tending wetter closer to the coast one gets. By late in the day, coverage of precip should be mainly confined to the coastal plain and perhaps as far west as I-395.

Northerly winds will increase as well, tending more N NW in the by afternoon. Should see winds around 10 mph in the interior, though speeds are even stronger towards eastern coastal MA, Cape and the Islands with speeds 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph coastal MA to low- 30 mph gusts towards the Cape and Islands.

Biased temperatures towards the colder end of guidance given persistent overcast, cold advection much of the day and northerly winds. Only showed daytime highs in the mid-upper 30s to lower-mid 40s, which are only a couple degrees warmer from current values if that.

SHORT TERM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY Tonight: Early-evening showers should remain mainly confined to eastern MA, Cape Cod Islands and adjacent waters. Followed the HREF SREF mean in showing a sharp PoP gradient with general trend for improvement W-E as the nighttime hrs progress. All told, shown event-total QPF from a few hundreths across central MA NE CT into RI, around a tenth or so into the MA coastal plain and the North Shore Boston area with up to a quarter-inch towards the Cape, some of which could be boosted by ocean-effect.

By midnight, most areas except for the Cape should be clearing out affording good radiational cooling. Showed lows upper 20s to near freezing in the interior, to the mid upper 30s towards the MA coast, Boston area into the Cape and Islands. Continued northerly winds will make it feel pretty chilly as well with wind chills in the 20s.

Thursday: N NW winds to subside towards light variable levels into the middle part of the day on Thursday with progged pressure gradient slackens as ridging building in from New York. Thermal advective pattern also changes from one of weak cold neutral to modest warm advection by afternoon. With full sunshine, should see temperatures moderating back into the 40s, and there may be a few spot 50s toward the Hartford metro area into southern RI. Certainly, a lot better weather than we've been experiencing over the last couple days!

LONG TERM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY Highlights...

* Mild (55-60) & breezy Friday along with a few showers possible late * Saturday the pick of the weekend, cool but dry & light winds * Rain wet snow possible Saturday night into early Sunday Thursday night ...

Change in airmass as warm front lifts across the area. Deep layer moisture is lacking so any showers will be limited in areal coverage. Thus most locations remain dry. Not as chilly as tonight given low level WAA and some mid level cloudiness. In fact min temps likely to occur during the evening hours given high pres overhead providing light winds and mostly clear skies, enabling radiational cooling to commence. Temps will then rise second half of the night as southwest winds increase.

Friday ...

Strong low level WAA continues ahead of Great Lakes short wave and attending cold front. Models continue to advertise +8C airmass at 925 mb advecting across CT RI MA Fri afternoon. This should support highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s before clouds and scattered showers arrive west to east late afternoon early evening. Deep layer moisture is lacking so not expecting widespread showers, just a few spot showers. Friday night... fairly strong post frontal CAA for late Nov with with -10C air at 850 mb and -6C at 925 mb over the region by 12z Sat. Thus a cold night but at least dry weather with the exception of possibly lake effect snow showers tracking into western MA.

Weekend ...

Saturday definitely the pick of the weekend with short wave ridging building into the region as Maritime low exits, allowing heights to rise and support dry weather in southern New England. Chilly start to the day with many locations in the 20s and only a modest temp recover with highs 40-45, upper 30s high terrain. About 5-10 degs colder than normal.

00z models continue to delay any precip until Saturday night. Thus dry weather should prevail for the daylight hours Saturday. Also 00z models have trended a bit farther north with frontal wave late Sat night into Early Sunday, tracking wave along the southern New England coast or slightly inland. If this track were to verify ptype would be mainly rain. However still 4 days away so worth watching.

Early Next Week ...

Probably cool and dry Mon as coastal low Sunday exits into the Maritimes. Then gradually moderating Tue as central CONUS trough evolves yielding downstream riding along the eastern seaboard.

AVIATION 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

12z TAF Update: Not much change from previous TAFs. Mainly light rain drizzle but snow at times in the higher terrain. But temps above freezing so runways should remain wet. Earlier discussion below.

=================================================================== Today: Mainly MVFR ceilings, best chance at IFR towards the interior (W NW of BED PVD and north of BDL). Should see precipitation blossom towards rain showers by afternoon, though air could support a mix to wet snow at ORH. Moving into the late- aftn early evening, precip should begin to focus more into eastern MA terminals. Light N NW winds strengthen thru the day today, 7-10 kts away from the Cape, increasing to 10-15 kts gusts to 20-25 kts for Cape Cod airports.

Wednesday Night: General theme will be for west to east improvement in ceilings and less precipitation coverage. Initial MVFR ceilingsVFR-MVFR visbys eastern sections should transition toVFR. NW winds to continue around 7-15 kts, with gusts on the Cape starting to subside to 20 kt levels.

Thursday: VFR under high pressure. Gradient slackens into Thursday with decreasing N winds towards light variable (tending W-SW late).

KBOS TAF... Moderate confidence in TAF. MVFR predominantes, with low prob of IFR ceilings late overnight thru late AM Wed.

KBDL TAF... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook Thursday Night through Sunday ...

Thursday Night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance FZRA.

Friday: MainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday Night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Saturday Night: MainlyVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN, chance RA, slight chance FZRA.

Sunday: MainlyVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance FZRA, chance SN.

MARINE Short Term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

SCAs continue due to residual 5-7 ft seas offshor waters.

However, an expected increase in N NE winds to SCA levels is anticipated especially for the latter half of today as a coastal low passes well east. Have added Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket Sound into a Small Craft Advisory mainly from winds.

Today: N NE wind speeds increase to 15-25 kts, with gusts to 25-30 kts, highest offshore waters. Winds around 10-15 kts gusts to 20-22 kts into Buzzards Bay RI Sound. Seas subside to 3-5 ft on southern waters, though continue around 5-7 ft eastern offshore waters.

Tonight: N Winds remain 15-25 kts gusts to 25-30 kts. Building seas eastern offshore waters to 6-9 ft, 3-6 ft in coastal waters in eastern MA Cape Cod Bay. Southern waters should see seas 4-6 ft.

Thursday: Decreasing N winds to around 10 kts, gusts to 15-25 kts by afternoon. Seas 4-7 ft outer offshore waters.

Outlook Thursday Night through Sunday ...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES WARNINGS ADVISORIES CT... None.

MA... None.

RI... None.

MARINE... Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ232.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ231.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ250-251- 254.

Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for ANZ255-256.

SYNOPSIS... Nocera Loconto NEAR TERM... Nocera Loconto SHORT TERM... Loconto LONG TERM... Nocera AVIATION... Nocera Loconto MARINE... Nocera Loconto
Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi57 min 41°F 48°F1011.8 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi57 min N 8 G 8.9 42°F 1011.6 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi57 min 42°F 40°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 21 mi57 min NNE 8.9 G 12 41°F 46°F1012.1 hPa
PVDR1 21 mi57 min N 8.9 G 12 41°F 1012.2 hPa41°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 21 mi57 min N 13 G 14 40°F 47°F1011.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 25 mi57 min NNE 9.9 G 12 41°F 1012.1 hPa
PRUR1 25 mi57 min 42°F 40°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 25 mi102 min NNE 8.9 40°F 1011 hPa40°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 30 mi63 min N 9.9 G 13 41°F 45°F1011.6 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi57 min 40°F 44°F1011.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi57 min N 8.9 G 13 42°F 46°F1011.3 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 32 mi57 min 43°F 48°F1010.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi102 min NNW 1.9 1010 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi87 min N 16 G 18 41°F 1011.1 hPa (+0.8)
44090 37 mi27 min 51°F2 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi37 min NNE 16 G 19 42°F 51°F5 ft1011 hPa (+1.2)40°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi47 min 47°F1 ft
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 49 mi83 min NNE 16 G 19 43°F 50°F4 ft1010.8 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA1 mi35 minNNW 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F39°F86%1011.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA15 mi34 minVar 66.00 miFog/Mist42°F39°F89%1011.1 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi35 minNNW 57.00 miOvercast42°F39°F92%1011.3 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI20 mi31 minN 72.50 miFog/Mist38°F37°F100%1006.8 hPa
East Milton, MA22 mi36 minN 9 mi37°F36°F96%1012.7 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA22 mi34 minN 410.00 miOvercast43°F37°F80%1012.3 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA23 mi52 minVar 4 G 112.50 miFog/Mist45°F41°F87%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3SW3--W4W3CalmCalmCalm--N3NW3Calm3N3CalmN3NW3NW4N3343N4
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N8NW5N5N4NW3NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE86NE64NE765NE5NE5E6NE855NE84NE6
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Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
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Wed -- 02:42 AM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:39 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:19 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:21 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:08 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:19 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:06 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.92.52.62.41.91.30.80.40.20.30.71.21.82.52.82.72.31.71.10.60.20.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:24 AM EST     -0.18 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:12 AM EST     -3.99 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:12 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:06 PM EST     3.69 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:19 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 03:26 PM EST     -0.09 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:34 PM EST     -4.28 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.73.11.7-2.2-3.5-4-3.8-3-1.22.43.43.73.52.91.7-2.1-3.5-4.2-4.2-3.6-2.41.73.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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