Tuesday, January28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Raynham Center, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:55PM Tuesday January 28, 2020 5:11 AM EST (10:11 UTC) Moonrise 10:16AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 416 Am Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri and Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat and Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 416 Am Est Tue Jan 28 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak cold front slides through today. High pressure nudges into the region from quebec province on Wednesday, then into new england Thursday into Friday. Coastal storm possible this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Raynham Center, MA
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location: 41.9, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 280858 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 358 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

SYNOPSIS.

Dry and quiet weather through much of the week with temperatures trending downward today through Thu. Expect more clouds than sunshine today as a cold front slides through. Ocean effect rain and snow showers become all snow showers across Cape Cod and Nantucket. Any ocean effect showers taper off late tonight. High pressure over Ontario builds toward the region Wed and Thu resulting in dry and seasonably cold weather. The high moves offshore Friday with temperatures moderating. Still watching for the potential for a coastal storm which may impact the region Saturday/Sat night, though it remains far from a certainty. Dry, blustery and colder weather likely follows Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Cyclonic flow persists across the region today with cold air advection from the northwest. Will see -8 to -10 degree Celsius 850 hPa air advect in. A dry cold front will slide through, but expect more clouds than sunshine across much of southern New England.

Cape Cod and Nantucket may see some ocean effect rain showers transition to snow showers as cold air filters in with winds out of the north northwest. Chances will increase throughout the day beginning about mid morning through the afternoon. Leaned on the latest HREF and NAMNest guidance to determine how widespread the ocean effect showers will be, but think the best opportunity will be Tuesday evening.

High temperatures today will be cooler when compared to yesterday with readings ranging from the low 30s across the Berkshires to the low 40s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/.

The cyclonic flow persists through the short term. Good agreement amongst guidance that a shortwave digs from the central/eastern Great Lakes to south of southern New England by Wednesday morning. A ridge will build into the central Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Tuesday night .

As the shortwave exits expect drier air to advect in behind the trough. Flow will still be north/north northwesterly. The best chance for ocean effect snow is from 00-09Z this is when the best lift coincides with the high RH wrt ice. After 09Z drier air advects in and lessens the chances of snow showers. There is some disagreement in how quickly things dry out as the ARW/NMM and GEM linger the ocean effect snow into Wednesday morning. Think that this is too long per the NAM/NAMNest and GFS, but is something to keep an eye on. Expect this to be the timeframe where the snowfall accumulates. Expect anywhere from a dusting to an inch of accumulation on Cape Cod.

Low temperatures range from the mid teens across the eastern Berkshires to the low 30s across the outer Cape.

Wednesday .

Decreasing cloud cover as high pressure nudges into the region. Temperatures still trending downward due to northerly cold air advection. High temperatures will generally be in the 30s across southern New England.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/.

Highlights .

* Mainly dry Wed night into Fri with seasonably cold temps but rebounding above normal by Fri

* Still monitoring for a potential storm Saturday/Sat night, but forecast confidence remains very low on details

Details .

Wed night/Thursday .

Potent closed low tracks north to south from Quebec across the Canadian Maritimes this period and spreads a shallow colder airmass across New England with 925 mb temps falling to about -8C to -10C. This will result in a chilly night with low temps at or slightly colder than normal. This colder air being delivered on northeast flow and streaming across warmer than normal ocean will yield steep low level lapse rates and lots of ocean effect clouds into eastern MA and perhaps a few snow showers or flurries across Cape Cod and coastal Plymouth county. Remaining chilly Thu but temps near seasonable with highs in the low to mid 30s. It will be fairly pleasant by late Jan standards with mostly sunny conditions (although ocean effect clouds may linger over southeast MA trapped beneath subsidence inversion) and light winds with 1025 mb high pres overhead.

Friday .

Dry weather with short wave ridging building across southern New England. Light WSW winds with high pressure drifting offshore and 925 mb temps moderating to about -3C should support highs Fri afternoon into the lower 40s (upper 30s hilly terrain) along with sunshine and light winds. Probably pick of the week.

The Weekend .

Still lots of uncertainty among 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance regarding track of coastal storm Sat/Sat night. 00z GFS and UKMET have trended closer to the coast while 00z ECMWF has a lead wave Fri night/Sat delivering some snow/rain to southern New England. Then the EC has a trailing much stronger short wave digging from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlc Sat night with secondary cyclogenesis well offshore. 00z EC ensembles continue to display large spread in low tracks and many members supporting surface pressures in the 980s mb range. Thus potential for a potent system but track and when phasing occurs remain highly uncertain. In addition lack of cold air over southern New England preceding the storm yields the possibility of ptype issues especially if this new northwest/closer to the coast trend continues. Short wave energy that will initiate cyclogenesis/storm development is currently over the northern Pacific with jet energy emerging from a complex 3 separate closed low configuration from the Gulf of AK to the Aleutians. How this energy ejects out of this complex configuration and then tracks across the CONUS screams high uncertainty. Thus will just have to see how trends evolve over the next few days. For what it's worth the past two runs from the EC ensembles have about 20% of its members supporting 6+ inches of snow for the I-95 corridor. Conversely the remainder of the members are misses with phasing too late and other members with rain/snow line farther northwest focusing heavy snow threat over NY state into northern-central New England. Thus at this time range all possible outcomes remain in play.

A drying trend should follow Sunday behind the departing cyclone.

Monday:

Ensembles suggest dry northwest flow with temps at or slightly above normal.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z Discussion .

Cyclonic flow persists across the region through the TAF period. Will continue to see BKN to OVC ceilings around 4 to 8 kft. Until 12Z. Short term guidance has had a lot of trouble with this activity, but there may be some clearing after 09-12Z once the shortwave swings through.

Tuesday .

VFR through the day with MVFR ceilings developing across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires mid to late this morning. Expecting more clouds than sunshine across the region, but expect VFR ceilings between 3.5 to 5 kft. Best shot for MVFR is across Cape Cod and Nantucket where ocean effect snow showers bring ceilings down to 2 to 3 kft and potentially reduce visibility to MVFR. Ocean effect rain/snow shower chances will increase from mid morning through the afternoon. Best opportunity for rain/snow showers is across the outer Cape. Still think there is an isolated snow shower chance across the the higher terrain of northwest MA.

Tuesday night .

VFR across most locations, but could see MVFR ceilings across the eastern slopes of the Berkshires and eastern coastal MA. Best chance for MVFR ceilings is across Cape Cod and Nantucket where ocean effect snow showers are possible. Best opportunity for snow showers is at HYA and ACK. Drier air moves in after midnight, which should bring an end to any of this activity.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF for the next 18 hours. Moderate confidence after 00Z as MVFR ceilings may move in.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, chance SN.

MARINE.

Short Term /through Wednesday/ . High confidence.

Tuesday . N-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts of 15 to 20 kts. Scattered rain/snow showers mid morning through the afternoon across the eastern waters from Nantucket to Cape Cod to Cape Ann, but dry elsewhere. Seas 4 ft or less. Visibility as low as 3 miles within a rain/snow shower. Good visibility elsewhere.

Tuesday Night . Winds becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered snow showers across the eastern waters from east of Boston Harbor to near and east of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Visibility of 1 to 3 miles within snow showers. Good visibility elsewhere.

Wednesday . NW winds 10 to 15 kt gusts increasing to 15 to 20 kts during the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft approaching 5 ft across the eastern waters. Good visibility.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/ .

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Nocera/BL NEAR TERM . BL SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Nocera AVIATION . Nocera/BL MARINE . Nocera/BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 16 mi60 min 38°F 40°F1005 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi54 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 1004.9 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi60 min 39°F 27°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 21 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 8.9 38°F 38°F1004.9 hPa
PVDR1 21 mi54 min NW 4.1 G 8 38°F 1005.1 hPa27°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 21 mi60 min WNW 9.9 G 12 38°F 40°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 25 mi54 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 38°F 1005.5 hPa
PRUR1 25 mi54 min 38°F 27°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 25 mi87 min NW 5.1 38°F 1005 hPa28°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 30 mi60 min WNW 5.1 G 7 38°F 40°F1005.2 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 31 mi54 min 39°F 38°F1003.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi54 min NW 6 G 9.9 38°F 36°F1004.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 32 mi60 min 39°F 39°F1004.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 34 mi87 min W 4.1 38°F 1004 hPa29°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi72 min WNW 16 G 18 38°F 1004.9 hPa (+0.5)
44090 37 mi42 min 39°F2 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 37 mi82 min WNW 16 G 19 40°F 42°F3 ft1003 hPa (+0.7)31°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 48 mi52 min 12 G 16
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 49 mi128 min NW 14 G 16 39°F 41°F2 ft1001.2 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA1 mi20 minW 410.00 miOvercast36°F25°F64%1004.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA15 mi19 minWNW 410.00 miOvercast36°F25°F64%1004.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA15 mi20 minW 710.00 miOvercast36°F27°F70%1004.2 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI20 mi16 minNW 510.00 miOvercast35°F26°F70%999.6 hPa
East Milton, MA22 mi21 minWNW 9 mi33°F26°F75%1004.9 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA22 mi19 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast40°F25°F55%1004.6 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA23 mi37 minVar 410.00 miOvercast39°F28°F65%1004.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTAN

Wind History from TAN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW4W9
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W96W4W5SW4SW4SW5SW4SW4W3SW3SW3S3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalm3E7E5E8
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Tide / Current Tables for Taunton, Taunton River, Massachusetts
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Taunton
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:27 AM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:53 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:50 PM EST     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:25 PM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.91.30.70.2000.411.72.42.82.62.21.60.90.40.100.30.71.322.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:27 AM EST     -4.20 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:29 AM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:58 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     3.99 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:43 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:42 PM EST     -4.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:52 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:52 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:36 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:55 PM EST     4.19 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.5-3.4-4.1-4.1-3.4-2.12.13.43.93.93.42.4-1.6-3.4-4.3-4.5-4-2.81.13.144.23.93.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.