Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Monroe, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:32PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:38 PM EST (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 11:16AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Monroe, MI
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location: 41.9, -83.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 182248 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 548 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

AVIATION.

With westerly flow persisting, the Lake Michigan moist plume will sustain frequent MVFR based ceilings into the night. There will be some decrease in the mid level moisture during the night which will cause the light snow showers/flurries to undergo a gradual decrease in coverage. The brevity of any higher intensity snow showers this evening will limit any accumulations to a dusting.

For DTW . With a slightly more southwest flow in the boundary layer, the higher intensity snow showers will remain largely north of metro. This flow may also support some more prolonged erosion of the MVFR cloud deck overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight and Tuesday.

* High in precip type as all snow tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

DISCUSSION .

Seasonably cold, moist west-northwest flow will continue to govern conditions through tonight. A diurnal increase in lapse rates under weak cold air advection yielding a broadening region of light snow showers within the background of larger scale cyclonic flow. Shortwave energy noted exiting lake Michigan will effectively supplement this ascent while temporarily reinvigorating the downstream moisture flux off lake Michigan under a secondary period of cold air advection tonight. The net effect will be a tendency for some degree of light snow shower production to occur over roughly the next 12 hours. If recent observational trends locally and just upstream are any indication, then meaningful snowfall rates will remain transient/brief thereby limiting accumulation potential /less than an inch/.

Slightly colder thermal profile in residence Tuesday - 850 mb temperatures down around -13C. Brief period of mid level dry/warm air advection will temporarily undercut the magnitude of ongoing lake moisture flux and reduce the downstream moisture depth. This points to dry conditions, at least early in the day. Additional shortwave energy will traverse the area during the afternoon period. This could offer a brief synoptic increase in moisture depth, affording a window for some inconsequential very light snow showers or flurries to emerge within the underlying cold westerly flow. A firm gradient and modest diurnal mixing yields a gusty afternoon condition - in excess of 25 mph at times. Highs arrive right at seasonable levels - upper 20s to lower 30s. Stronger height falls commence Tuesday night as an upper wave of arctic origin dives into the mean trough. Standard increase in forced ascent via a combination of dcva and cold air advection will support an increase in snow shower coverage during this time. The general brevity of deeper layer ascent again contains accumulation prospects - less than an inch this period. Lake modified arctic air then entrenched through the Wednesday period. The existing cold west- northwest flow again lends to some light snow shower/flurry production, but a warming/drying profile upstream steadily deteriorates the lake response with time.

Building upper heights with an ensuing increase in warm air advection within low level southwest flow nets a solid, albeit brief moderating trend Wed night-Thursday. Dry conditions maintained this period, as greater moist isentropic resides well north.

MARINE .

Lake enhanced moisture will continue to bring flurries to the central Great Lakes this evening while snow hangs on overnight for northern Huron given the proximity to weak low pressure. Winds turn more south of west tonight with speeds increasing late. Surface pressure gradient contraction early Tuesday morning will lead to an increase in speeds throughout the day. Discrepancies in modeled upper level winds yield low-confidence for gusts to exceed 30 knots, but there is enough support for steady 20-25 knot winds along the Thumb shoreline to produce Small Craft Advisory waves until late Tuesday evening. A ridge of high pressure then approaches from the midwest working to maintain higher gradient winds producing moderate northwesterly flow across the local waters with occasional gusts in the 25 knot range. The offshore component of the wind is expected to keep nearshore waves below small craft criteria.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to midnight EST Tuesday night for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . SC DISCUSSION . MR MARINE . KK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 15 mi51 min WSW 7 G 12 30°F 1014.5 hPa22°F
CMPO1 32 mi69 min WSW 9.9 G 15 30°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 44 mi51 min WSW 5.1 G 11 30°F 34°F1014.2 hPa22°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 49 mi39 min WSW 8.9 G 13 30°F 1014.9 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI3 mi43 minSW 910.00 miOvercast31°F28°F89%1014.9 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI17 mi44 minSW 710.00 miOvercast31°F25°F80%1015.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi44 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast31°F26°F82%1014.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI23 mi46 minWSW 118.00 miLight Snow30°F23°F75%1015.4 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI24 mi46 minWSW 1010.00 miOvercast33°F23°F66%1014.9 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi46 minWSW 119.00 miOvercast30°F25°F82%1016.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTTF

Wind History from TTF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7SW9W9W8W8W9W9W7SW6W6W7SW8W7W10SW10SW12W10
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2 days agoSW7SW9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmW3W6NW5SW7W8W8W7SW10SW7SW8SW8SW9SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.