Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

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Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 18, 2019 10:57 PM CDT (03:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:45PMMoonset 6:59AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201907190930;;279164 Fzus63 Kmkx 190151 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 851 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure around 29.2 inches over northern ontario and high pressure over the southeast states will bring a period of elevated southwest winds to lake michigan tonight. There will be somewhat of a lull on Friday then low pressure of 29.7 inches will move across the northern portion of the lake Friday night into Saturday bringing another period of elevated southwest winds. Rounds of Thunderstorms are expected through Saturday. Then a front will slide down the lake Saturday afternoon and be the focus for additional Thunderstorms. Look for northerly winds and a dry stretch of weather in the wake of that system as high pressure of 30.2 builds into the northern plains Sunday and shifts into iowa by Tuesday. Lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-190930- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 851 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through early evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 190245
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
945 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019

Update
945 pm cdt
continuing to monitor thunderstorm potential through the overnight
and have a few concerns based on observed trends over the last
few hours. Convection continues to fire on either side of the
mn ia border with most recent development on the south side. As of
930 pm, there are two primary clusters of storms, one north of
lacrosse, wi and another between mason city and decorah, ia.

Storms have generally been following the instability gradient to
the east but the gradient does arc a bit more southeastward across
eastern wisconsin. 850-300mb thickness is oriented west to east
the further north into wisconsin you go but the thickness ridge is
positioned across central iowa into northern illinois resulting
in a turn to the southeast across far southern wisconsin. This is
concerning for the activity in northern iowa as it would support a
turn to the east-southeast or southeast with time. While neither
of these elements are high magnitude or suggest a major
southeastward shift in expectations, they do suggest that there is
at least a somewhat better chance that some sort of ongoing or
remnant activity may occur across far northern or northeastern
illinois late tonight. Latest high-res guidance primarily keeps
activity north of the area through the overnight but has not
captured the current scenario very well, under forecasting the
convection on the iowa side in particular. Will go ahead and make
a minor increase in pops in the far north expand them southward
slightly. At this point it seems the highest coverage scenario
would put activity along and north of a rockford to chicago line
with a better, though still low chance, of activity from far
northeast winnebago co. (rockton area) to far southeast lake co.,
il (deerfield area). Will carry about a 30 percent chance on the
high end. Will also adjust timing to carry a chance toward 12-13z.

Otherwise, no changes to headlines. Seems that any influence from
remnant convection would be short lived Saturday morning, assuming
it follows the evolution noted above. Will also adjust temp trends
overnight and increase dewpoints as many sites are around 80.

Mdb

Short term
313 pm cdt
through Sunday...

the only additional change made to the going headlines was to push
off the start time of lake and porter in until 15z Friday to match
the timing we made earlier in northeast il.

Overall, the morning MCS produced a wake low which significantly
disrupted the larger scale surface pressure pattern over the area.

As a result, we have continued to experience gusty east-
southeasterly winds over much of northeastern il. The remnant
outflow boundary currently resides over far southern benton and
iroquois counties in my southeast. To the north of this, winds
are generally south-southeasterly. Clearing skies has allowed for
some decent recovery, with temperatures warming into the lower to
mid 80s at the time of this writing. It still appears that this
trend of modification will continue through late this afternoon as
the winds gradually veer more south-southwesterly. Because of
this it is expected that our high temperatures for the day will
hit very late this afternoon, or early this evening over northern
il.

Heat indices over far northeastern il and northwestern in could
climb into the 90s, to possibly near 100 in a few areas before
sunset as temperatures recover into the mid to upper 80s. However,
the more extreme heat indices are likely to remain south and west
of the chicago area. For this reason the going start time of 21z
seems good for areas outside the chicago metro area.

There is another threat for some thunderstorms tonight, but this
threat will mainly reside to our north in wi as the low-level jet
ramps up again. These storms could again trend to the east-
southeast, possibly reaching far northern il overnight. It does
appear that capping will be stronger tonight over much of our
area, so it appears unlikely that these storms would survive to
far south into il.

Otherwise, the heat will be on for the entire area for both Friday
and Saturday. Not much has changed with the forecast for these two
days. Overall, we are expecting similar conditions each day, with
high temperatures in the mid to possibly upper 90s, and heat
indices around 110 to possibly as high as 115 in some areas.

Overnight lows both tonight and Friday night will remain very warm
and humid, so little to no relief is expected at night.

A cold front is expected to drop southward over northern il later
Saturday afternoon and evening. This frontal passage will mark
the end of the dangerous heat across the area, though it will come
at the price of more storms. Thunderstorms look like a good bet
over far northern il as early as late afternoon Saturday, but
most likely over the area Saturday night into Sunday evening.

These storms are likely to be very heavy rain producers, and some
flash flood risk could develop as the easterly storm motion could
result in training cells. This possibility will need to be
monitored. Some of these storms could also be on the strong side,
with strong wind gusts.

Otherwise, expect much cooler conditions over the area for Sunday
with the storms and the shift to northerly winds.

Kjb

Long term
320 pm cdt
Sunday night through Thursday...

a period of much quieter and pleasant weather is expected for
much of next week following the Saturday night cold front passage.

Northwest flow aloft will set up over the region for much of the
week as a large upper ridge builds in the west and a trough sets
up over the east. A large area of surface high pressure is likely
to drop southward over the region early next week and this should
result in mainly dry and cool conditions over the area.

Temperatures in this pattern are likely to only be in the low to
mid 80s inland and possibly into the upper 70s along the lake
shores. Temperatures should begin to moderate back into the mid to
upper 80s later in the week.

Kjb

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

626 pm... Main forecast concern is gusty southwest winds this
evening and again Friday.

An area of high MVFR lowVFR clouds around 3kft will continue to
move east across the terminals this evening and while this is
expected to scatter this evening some few sct stratocu may persist
overnight.

Thunderstorms now developing near the ia mn border are expected to
move east southeast overnight into Friday morning but most of the
guidance keeps this activity generally north of the wi il state
line with only one model moving it into northwest il as it
weakens. There is medium confidence that the terminals will stay
dry overnight Friday morning but opted to turn current prob
mention at rfd to vicinity around daybreak and will monitor trends
this evening.

Southwest winds gusting into the lower 20kt range will slowly
diminish this evening with speeds around or just below 10kts
overnight. Low level winds increase some later this evening and
its possible some low level wind shear may develop and will
monitor for possible addition with the 03z update. Southwest
winds will increase Friday morning with gusts into the 20kt range.

Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Excessive heat warning... Ilz008-ilz010-ilz011-ilz019-ilz020-
ilz021-ilz022-ilz023-ilz032-ilz033-ilz039 until 7 pm
Saturday.

Excessive heat warning... Ilz012-ilz013-ilz014... 10 am Friday to
7 pm Saturday.

Heat advisory... Ilz003 until 11 pm Friday.

Heat advisory... Ilz004-ilz005-ilz006... 10 am Friday to 11 pm
Friday.

In... Excessive heat warning... Inz001-inz002... 10 am Friday to 7 pm
Saturday.

Excessive heat warning... Inz010-inz011-inz019 until 7 pm
Saturday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi37 min SW 12 G 12 86°F 80°F
45177 16 mi117 min 72°F
CNII2 16 mi27 min SSW 6 G 8.9 85°F 75°F
JAKI2 16 mi117 min WSW 7 G 11 87°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi57 min SSW 7 G 11 85°F 1008.6 hPa (+1.1)78°F
OKSI2 17 mi117 min E 1.9 G 2.9 87°F
FSTI2 19 mi117 min SW 6 87°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 20 mi57 min SSW 5.1 G 7 82°F 1009.8 hPa (+1.3)
45170 21 mi27 min S 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 73°F1 ft75°F
45174 24 mi27 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 66°F1 ft1006.5 hPa
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi37 min S 9.9 G 11 85°F 76°F
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 37 mi27 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 80°F 77°F1 ft1009.2 hPa75°F
45186 41 mi57 min SE 1.9 G 3.9 70°F 63°F1 ft
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi57 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 1010.2 hPa (+1.1)
45187 48 mi37 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 65°F 58°F1 ft

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi72 minSSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds86°F78°F79%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE4S11S10E7NE7CalmE13SE9
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNE54CalmCalmNE6E6CalmCalmE7SE3SE4SE4
2 days agoCalmCalmS4S4CalmCalmSE5S4S5SE4S3SE4SE9S6S3N9NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.