Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Whiting, IN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:21PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 5:38 AM CST (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 5:09PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ779 Expires:201912111645;;181653 Fzus63 Kmkx 110906 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 306 Am Cst Wed Dec 11 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. Low pressure of 29.9 inches is passing to the north of the great lakes and will move east into quebec today. Moderate westerly winds will continue this afternoon and combined with the colder temperatures, freezing spray will be possible at times through this evening. A surface high pressure of 30.6 inches will push across the northern great plains and move across lake michigan tonight. The winds will diminish and back to the south overnight as another weak surface low of 30.0 inches approaches the region. Southerly winds will increase for Thursday as the low pushes across lake michigan. Gale force gusts are possible, especially over the center and south half of the lake, Thus a gale watch is in effect for the southern 2/3rds of lake michigan Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. The low will then move east of the lake Thursday night and lighter winds are expected by Friday with northwesterly winds developing by the weekend. && lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-111645- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 306 am cst Wed dec 11 2019 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon...
Today..West winds to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Freezing spray this morning. Chance of flurries. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 kt backing to south 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of light freezing drizzle overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..South winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt late in the morning, then increasing to gales to 40 kt early in the afternoon becoming southwest late. Chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 8 to 12 ft occasionally to 16 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain and snow. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
LMZ779


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Whiting, IN
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location: 41.9, -87.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 110923 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 323 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

SHORT TERM. 255 AM CST

Through Thursday .

This Wednesday morning will provide a quick hit of some mainly light snow to the CWA, particularly along/south of a line from Byron to the south Chicago metro. Impacts should be minimal because of the short duration, but with the cold pavement now and still early season, a dusting during the morning commute is still notable. Otherwise in the short term, below normal temperatures reside for one more day before a flip to slightly above normal on a breezy Thursday.

The somewhat progressive but deep long wave trough is oriented from the polar latitudes southward through the Great Lakes this morning. A 150 kt upper jet, as sampled on last evening's BIS sounding, is streaking southeastward into the base of the trough. This is resulting in an indirect thermal circulation in its exit region, with resulting frontogenesis in the 925-750 mb layer. The DVN VWP sampled 45 kt at 3,000 ft, verifying a strong warm advection pocket into that vertical circulation. With a favorable thermal and saturation profile near the dendritic growth zone, the response is what we would expect in this pattern with a clipper, that is an area of light with an embedded potential for brief moderate snow moving into northwest Illinois as of 3 am.

Often with a system like this, one can extrapolate upstream conditions into the short term forecast fairly well, that is as long as the system does not re-orient, deamplify, or fade. All of those trends are expected to gradually happen by mid-late morning as the short wave cruises into the eastern CWA/northern Indiana. But for northern Illinois, the aforementioned forcing connected in the vertical does favor a sizable area of light snow from 5-10 a.m. The trend from yesterday is a tad further north accounting for observational trends. This would favor any brief areas of moderate snow . driven mostly by f-gen . in Lee, southern DeKalb, LaSalle, Kendall, Grundy, and Livingston Counties through 9 a.m. After that period, the forcing further east looks to weaken, but still light snow. Am expecting a couple hour period of light snow for the southern parts of the metro tapering to flurries by the north.

Most areas that see snow for over an hour probably will have a dusting. Parts of the area that see snow for 3-4 hours (listed in prior paragraph where moderate snow is favored), probably will see some totals over one half inch. A lower possibility but on the spectrum given the ingredients and snow ratios are a couple one inch totals in the western CWA. The dusting will likely occur on some paved surfaces so will message that aspect early this morning.

Clouds with this should clear out pretty quickly, with only maybe lake effect flurries/light snow in northern Porter County Indiana this afternoon. Temperatures look to peak in the lower 20s north to upper 20s south. A fairly quick drop will happen early this evening with a 1035 mb high overhead if high clouds have not moved back over yet. They will at some point later this evening and temperatures will start to rise as they do, especially with southeast winds kicking in overnight.

Warm advection returns on Thursday and quickly at that, with a Pacific/clipper hybrid moving into the western/northern Great Lakes region resulting in a tightened pressure gradient. The depth of the boundary layer on Thursday has lower confidence as the models show notable variability with a strong warm nose aloft. There should be enough isallobaric component (7-8 mb/6 hr pressure falls) for 20 mph sustained winds, especially in far northern Illinois. Some gusts to 35 mph would be possible depending on mixing depth. Highs look to rebound into the lower to mid 40s, with any light dusting that occurred this morning likely not retarding the temperature climb much. As for any precipitation from the wave to the north, there is a chance in far northern Illinois for some light rain or possibly wet bulb cooling enough for some brief ice pellets, but that does not look to be of any impact given the above freezing surface air temperatures.

MTF

LONG TERM. 320 AM CST

Thursday night through Tuesday .

In the extended, there continues to be an unsettled and at least likely cloudy pattern Friday and Saturday. Right now would be a little surprised to get through Saturday with no snow in the CWA, even if just light and brief,given the primary global models and their ensemble solutions the past few runs. A more impacting snow on Saturday is a non-favored outcome at this time, and a lessening one in recent runs, but some guidance (11.00 GFS) does still indicate that and a couple ensembles so worth mentioning here.

Another amplifying trough from Ontario into the Great Lakes is forecast to evolve late Friday into the weekend, though definitely not as deep or cold as the current one. This will be driven by a split flow regime and a stronger subtropical jet, with some potential phasing likely to the east of the area. With a the split flow on Friday and Friday night, it's a bit nebulous for precipitation forcing throughout that time. Had thought about removing or lowering some of the chances provided by the blend as it looks like a low QPF and spotty if it were to materialize. Profiles get marginal Friday night for both ice and surface temperatures if south winds are light enough. It will be something to watch but low confidence in any light freezing precip at this juncture.

For Saturday, the left exit region of the upper jet has been consistently forecast to overspread some of the area, and as such a gradually deepening low is forecast to be taking shape in or just east of the region. If this occurs at a strong enough magnitude and in-sync with the northern stream, enough cold air should wrap in for some snow and possibly accumulating snow. The 11.00 GEFS members have about a third that indicate a tenth of an inch plus of QPF during Saturday in the eastern half of the CWA, with the GFS deterministic solution much higher than that. This is why we lean more toward the EC and GEM solutions right now. Did boost PoPs some on Saturday afternoon as that remains a consistent overlap in those two global solutions for some precip accumulation. Again it may just be a light rain to light snow and departing so not for much duration and of nil impact, tough to say yet at this juncture.

No changes made to the blended solution for early next week, with still an active westerly jet over the middle of the country. The Monday period has been favored to have a southern stream system moving northeastward in the middle or eastern part of the country, and with a potential large QPF swatch. We right now are favored on the northern to beyond the far northern part of that. Overall the pattern looks to yield slightly below normal temperatures through early next week.

MTF

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Aviation forecast concerns:

- Brief period of MVFR ceilings with flurries around midnight tonight.

- Another brief period of flurries possible Wednesday morning.

- West winds persist into Wednesday then diminish and turn light southeast early Wednesday evening.

Current IR satellite imagery depicts a small area of MVFR stratus across parts of northern IL, with bases around 2500 feet. With cold air mass in place, this cloud layer is in prime ice growth temperatures, and many sites have reported light flurries as the deck moves over. This will likely pass across Chicago metro terminals through midnight/shortly after, though with no impact to visibility and no accumulation.

A stronger disturbance will dig southeast across the region early Wednesday, brining the potential for more widespread flurries or very light snow mainly just south of the terminals. VFR mid-deck already advancing quickly east-southeastward across IA, and will be moving across terminals before sunrise. While minor accumulation is possible farther south into central IL, looks like terminals will again have a brief (2-4 hour) period of no-impact VFR flurries during the morning, before clouds scatter mid-day.

West winds around 10 kts persist tonight into Wednesday in weakly cyclonic low level flow across the region. Surface high pressure ridge moves into the region by Wednesday evening, allowing winds to diminish, and become light southeast as the surface high pressure ridge drifts east of the area Wednesday night.

Ratzer

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . Gary to Michigan City IN until 3 PM Wednesday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi39 min W 15 G 17 15°F 5°F
CNII2 16 mi24 min WSW 6 G 12 15°F 6°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 17 mi51 min SW 4.1 G 12 15°F 1025.3 hPa5°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 24 mi39 min SW 17 G 19 18°F 11°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 45 mi39 min WSW 22 G 28 24°F 1025.4 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN20 mi54 minW 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy18°F5°F58%1027.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGYY

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW16
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W13W15W9W11W11W17W7W7SW6W4W12
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1 day agoSW5SW9SW9SW10SW10SW8SW6SW8SW7SW10W9
G14
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2 days agoS8--S13
G25
S11S12S12S14--S12S13S6S9S4S4S4S7--S6S6S5S7S6S6S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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