Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM Moonrise 7:59 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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LMZ779 Expires:202405111530;;011961 Fzus63 Kmkx 110811 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 311 am cdt Sat may 11 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis -
low pressure around 29.6 inches over northern lower michigan will slow down over lake huron later today. Modest to brisk northwest winds are expected over the entire lake into early afternoon. Weak high pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across the lake late this afternoon and evening with light and variable winds expected. The high will shift east early Sunday morning while a wave of low pressure around 29.6 inches and its cold front moves across northern lake michigan Sunday night. This will result in breezy southerly winds on Sunday shifting northerly and weakening late Sunday night. The cold front will move south on Monday bringing light to modest northerly winds to the entire lake.

lmz080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-111530- lake michigan from michigan city in to st. Joseph mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from sheboygan to port washington wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from port washington to north point light wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from north point light to wind point wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wind point wi to winthrop harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from winthrop harbor to wilmette harbor il 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from wilmette harbor il to michigan city in 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from whitehall to pentwater mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from grand haven to whitehall mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from holland to grand haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from south haven to holland mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from st. Joseph to south haven mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 311 am cdt Sat may 11 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Today - Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming north 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tonight - Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Sunday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Monday - West winds 10 to 15 kt veering to north 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Monday night - Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Tuesday - North winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Wednesday - North winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ700
No data

FXUS63 KLOT 110820 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 320 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, seasonable, and breezy conditions this weekend.

- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday night through early Tuesday. There will be many dry hours.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Through Sunday:

A cold front continues to advance across eastern IL and northern IN this morning with an area of scattered showers traversing ahead of the boundary. These showers will continue to exit our area over the next hour or so leaving us with dry conditions for the rest of the weekend. However, the combination of cold advection in the wake of the front and a lingering pressure gradient will promote breezy northwest winds this afternoon. Gusts are expected to top out in the 20 to 30 mph range today before gusts gradually subside this evening. Despite the cold advection, temperatures will remain seasonable today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s though onshore flow across northwest IN will hold readings a few degrees cooler.

Heading into Sunday, mid-level ridging will build into the Great Lakes which will turn winds out of the southwest and usher in warmer temperatures. Therefore, highs on Sunday are forecast to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Though strong diurnal mixing is expected again on Sunday which will promote breezy winds, but this time in the 20 to 25 mph range. Additionally, the deeper mixing should also lower dew points, despite the warm-moist advection, which will make RH values dip into the 30-35 percent range Sunday afternoon. Thankfully, the recent rains and greening vegetation should limit any fire weather concerns.

Yack

Sunday Night through Friday:

Monday into Tuesday, the cut-off low currently meandering in the southwestern United States will become "re-absorbed" into the upper- level flow while drifting eastward toward the mid Mississippi River Valley. As a result, waves of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to roam through the general region starting as early as Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday. At this point, the Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning period is favored for the highest coverage of showers and storms locally, which may include swaths of locally heavy rainfall (>1") given relatively slow storm motions, an abundance of synoptic-scale lift, and PWATS nearing 1.4". Outside of waves of showers and thunderstorms, temperatures early next week will be like a tale of two seasons with highs in the mid 70s away from Lake Michigan on Monday and only in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday (thanks to expansive onshore flow off Lake Michigan).

Wednesday and at least the first half of Thursday, a surface high pressure system and upper-level ridge will move over the Great Lakes allowing for a rebound in temperatures into the low to mid 70s. With the core of the surface high pressure system expected to pass north of our area, the surface wind will maintain an onshore component. As a result, temperatures will continue to be cooler near the Lake Michigan shoreline. Ensemble model guidance continues to favor the next opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms to arrive sometime in the late Thursday to early Friday timeframe.

A much-too-early look at the latter half of May suggests relatively seasonable weather with highs in the 70s and regular opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. (In other words, there are no signs of much above or below normal temperatures, or for much above or below normal precipitation).

Borchardt

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms and northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt will continue moving across the terminals within the first 1 to 1.5 hours of the TAF.
Thereafter, winds will settle northwesterly and mid-level clouds will clear.

After daybreak, northwesterly winds are expected to quickly increase in magnitude with sustained speeds of 15-20kt and gusts of 25-30kt. A few mid-level clouds (based between 5kft and 10kft) may develop during the afternoon. A dry airmass will facilitate efficient decoupling an hour or two after sunset, leading to light and variable winds. Toward daybreak Sunday, winds will settle on a southwesterly direction and gradually increase to the 5-10kt range.

Borchardt

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.

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