Friday, April3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Eastham, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 7:10PM Friday April 3, 2020 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:43PMMoonset 3:56AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 1016 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
.storm warning in effect until 5 pm edt this afternoon...
This afternoon..NE winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun and Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon through Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Edt Fri Apr 3 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A large and intense ocean storm well east of the waters will gradually pinwheel back toward the coast through Friday morning. This storm will bring gale to storm force winds to the waters along with rough seas. The system will move south and away from the waters off the shore of southern new england Friday night. Weak high pressure will then build back over the waters this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Eastham CDP, MA
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location: 41.92, -70.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 031558 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1158 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2020

SYNOPSIS.

A large and intense ocean storm southeast of New England will move south this afternoon before passing north of Bermuda Saturday. Expect strong wind with diminishing periods of rain this afternoon. Occasional rain persists tonight in eastern New England before diminishing Saturday. A weak weather system and front will bring scattered showers Sunday afternoon and night. Unsettled conditions will linger as a few fast moving systems push across the region from Monday night through mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

Multiple bands of rain over Southern New England late morning along with the main rain shield associated with the storm center moving across Cape Cod and the Islands. Regional radars do show showers over the White Mountains and SW Maine, and this should pivot south over interior Srn New England this afternoon. But no large rain bands over the Gulf of Maine. So expect off/on rain this afternoon but with diminishing intensity.

Northeast winds to 35 kt/40 mph along the North Shore and the Cape/Islands, 20-30 kt RI and coastal SE MA. North winds in the teens across the interior of MA/RI/CT. Expect these winds to continue to early afternoon, then diminish later in the day.

Minor changes to the details of the forecast, but otherwise the forecast continues.

See coastal flooding section below for a discussion of coastal flood potential.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/.

Tonight .

Storm moves well south of New Eng tonight while SNE remains within the cyclonic circulation. The low level jet weakens but the core of the jet will remain focused across eastern MA where deep moisture persists. As a result, expect occasional rain to continue at times across eastern MA. Hi-res guidance suggests potential for total rainfall of 1-2 inches focused from Plymouth county to Cape Cod.

Winds will slowly diminish as the jet weakens but still a windy night along the coast. Gusts 35-45 mph along the immediate coast gradually diminishing overnight.

Saturday .

Cyclonic NE flow near the coast and persistent moisture will continue the risk of showers across eastern MA, but improving conditions in the afternoon. Lots of low level moisture will result in low clouds persisting, but should become partly sunny in the CT valley. Winds still gusty along the coast in the morning but diminishing in the afternoon as low level wind field weakens and moves to the south. Highs ranging from the lower 40s east coastal MA to low/mid 50s CT valley.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/.

Highlights .

* Dry conditions expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as high pressure moves across

* A weak disturbance and associated cold front will bring scattered showers Sunday afternoon and night

* Dry and mild conditions briefly return on Monday, then will cool to near or slightly below normal cooling through mid week

* A few fast moving systems may bring unsettled conditions from Monday night through mid week

Details .

Saturday night through Sunday night .

As the ocean storm finally shifts E-SE across the western Atlc, expect dry conditions into Sunday. Will still see gusty NE winds up to 20 to 30 mph lingering across Cape Cod and along the S coast Saturday evening, then will diminish as the pressure gradient relaxes and winds become light northerly mainly around and after midnight. Will still see a layer of low to mid level moisture linger as seen on 00Z NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings, so expect mostly cloudy skies but should remain dry at ground level.

Will see colder air aloft shift southward during the night, with H85 temps down to -2C to -4C after midnight. Expect temp to bottom out manly in the 30s, though could be close to 40 across the lower CT valley.

High pressure ridge will cross the region on Sunday, though may still see low level moisture and clouds will linger across the interior. May see another weak system approach during the day, which may bring some isolated showers as suggested by the 00Z GFS BUFKIT. Have limited any POPs to slight chance mainly across the higher terrain of N central and W Mass. May see a better shot for showers Sunday night as a cold front approaches. Several 00Z model members suggest that the mid level steering flow will become more progressive, so the front should push steadily across Sunday night,

Monday .

00Z model members continue to signal a dry and mild day for Monday as another high pressure center crosses the northeast during the day. As clouds move offshore through the morning, should see quite a bit of sunshine as well. Expect H925 temps to rise to +5c to +7C during the afternoon, so should see temps rise to the lower 60s across interior E Mass and N central/NE CT to the CT valley, but will be cooler along the coast and across the higher terrain.

Tuesday through Thursday .

Lower than average confidence during this timeframe as the fast moving, progressive mid level steering flow remains across the lower 48. Noting rather wide model solution spread amongst the model suite as a few systems push across.

High pressure will push E through Tuesday, then another frontal system approaches as a cutoff H5 low dives SE out of central Canada. This flow may linger through Thursday with a few more systems moving across keeping unsettled conditions in place. Temperatures should run close to or slightly below normal during this timeframe.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/.

Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

This afternoon . Moderate confidence.

IFR on the Cape/Islands/SE MA, MVFR much of interior Srn New England, and VFR in the CT Valley. Expect these conditions to linger through the afternoon. VFR conditions lower to MVFR late in the day. NE winds gusting 35-45 kt east coastal MA and possibly near 50 kt Cape Ann and outer Cape Cod. These winds will diminish late in the day.

Tonight . Moderate confidence.

Widespread MVFR/IFR. Occasional rain eastern New England gradually diminishing. NE gusts 30-40 kt in the evening, gradually diminishing overnight.

Saturday . Moderate confidence.

MVFR/IFR to start gradually improving during the afternoon with VFR developing in the CT valley. Threat of showers persisting across eastern and SE MA. NE gusts 25-30 kt along the coast diminishing in the afternoon.

KBOS Terminal . Moderate confidence. Mainly MVFR cigs but may drop to IFR at times. NE gusts peak 35 to 40 kt.

KBDL Terminal . Moderate confidence. VFR. Cigs lower to MVFR late. are expected to slowly recede. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE.

Peak of the wind from large ocean storm occurs midday as low level jet moves south from the Gulf of Maine. NE gusts to 50 kt eastern waters and gusts to 40 kt RI coastal waters. Seas build to 15-25 ft over eastern MA waters. Storm warnings continue on the eastern waters, with gales on other waters. Winds gradually diminish this evening through Saturday but it will be a slow process with gales persisting on waters tonight then dropping to SCA during Sat from north to south. Vsbys reduced in occasional rain and fog, improving Sat.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.

Noon Update .

Water levels will continue to recede this afternoon. The forecast is generally on track, but we are roughly 0.1-0.2 feet above observed Total Water Levels. Have made these adjustments into the afternoon and early evening. Still have potential for minor coastal flooding on Nantucket for the next two high tide cycles.

10 AM Update .

Extended the Coastal Flood Warning for Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Seeing a 2.5-2.7 ft surge per NOS in Nantucket, which is in line with the forecast. Despite being past high tide we are still seeing impacts across Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard via webcams. Given the track of the low coupled with the wind direction it will take a bit for water levels to recede. Therefore have extended the warning in these locations. Elsewhere water levels will slowly recede.

Previous discussion .

Today .

Powerful low pressure (~ 976 mb) over Georges Bank this morning continues moving west bound, making its closest pass to Nantucket around 8 am this morning, about 100 miles east of the Island. The low will then move southwest tracking near the 40N/70W benchmark this afternoon and then finally southeast out to sea. Strong low level northeast jet associated with this low is currently over the northern ME waters with Mt. Desert Rock reporting a peak wind (NNE) at 56 kt/64 mph at 2 AM! This core of strong NNE winds will coincide with this morning's high tide in eastern MA (730-830am). Thus expecting wind gusts approaching 60 mph along the eastern MA coastline during high tide. This will result in about a 3-3.5 ft storm surge. At 3 AM, already seeing observed surge values of 2.85-2.95.

As for surge model guidance, ESTOFS remains unusable as for whatever reason this model is just not capturing current surge values. ETSS is fairly good with current surge values only running about 0.5 lower than observed values. Stevens Institute ensemble surge SNAP-Ex almost spot when comparing observed surge values to ensemble mean forecast. Thus will continue to follow this guidance very closely. This supports storm surge values ranging from about 2.8 ft to 3.2 ft during this morning's high tide. This brings storm tides (total water level) to about 6.4 ft at Nantucket (flood stage 5 ft) and Boston to 12.5 (flood stage 12.5 ft). These water levels at or above flood stage combined with large waves of 15-20 ft just offshore (up to 25 ft farther offshore) will be sufficient for widespread minor coastal flooding along the entire eastern MA coastline from the NH/MA border southward to Boston to Cape Cod and the Islands. Embedded areas of moderate coastal flooding are possible as these retrograding lows combined with higher period waves from a long NE fetch sometimes result in a greater impact. This includes possible minor structural damage to seawalls and other coastal structures along with minor to moderate beach erosion.

Tonight and Saturday .

Despite the ocean storm moving away from the region later today the following two tide cycles tonight and Saturday morning may experience minor coastal flooding. Thus later today a coastal flood advisory may be needed for these two tide cycles.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ015-016-018- 019-021. High Wind Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MAZ007. High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ022>024. Coastal Flood Warning until noon EDT today for MAZ023-024. RI . None. MARINE . Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ231-232-251- 255. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ236. Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-254. Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ256.

SYNOPSIS . KJC/EVT NEAR TERM . WTB SHORT TERM . KJC LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . WTB/KJC/EVT MARINE . WTB/BL/EVT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 17 mi29 min 43°F9 ft
CHTM3 17 mi71 min NNE 34 G 50 43°F 48°F995 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 21 mi39 min NNE 33 G 41 43°F 22 ft997.8 hPa (+3.1)40°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 32 mi49 min 7 ft
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi104 min NW 7 44°F 996 hPa43°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 44 mi39 min NNE 31 G 39 43°F 43°F16 ft999.7 hPa (+2.8)43°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 44 mi59 min 44°F 44°F996.7 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 44 mi59 min NNE 23 G 36 43°F 44°F994.2 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA11 mi33 minNE 32 G 395.00 miFog/Mist and Windy44°F42°F93%998.6 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA15 mi37 minNE 22 G 362.50 miFog/Mist and Breezy43°F39°F89%996.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA21 mi33 minNNE 23 G 433.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Windy45°F42°F90%996 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVC

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE12
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N11N8NE11NE9NE9--NE11NE8NE5E4E3N7N9E5CalmNE11NE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Wellfleet, Massachusetts
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Wellfleet
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:44 AM EDT     1.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     10.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:27 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:26 PM EDT     9.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.221.72.84.76.78.59.910.19.37.65.73.71.80.70.82.146.189.29.18.16.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Lighthouse
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:25 AM EDT     1.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:38 AM EDT     7.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:08 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:24 PM EDT     7.09 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.21.41.52.53.95.36.67.67.775.642.51.10.40.81.93.34.86.276.96.14.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.