Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:19PM Saturday January 25, 2020 6:45 PM PST (02:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:24AMMoonset 6:18PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 211 Pm Pst Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Steep seas will persist through at least mid-week as multiple frontal systems and swell trains move through. Southerly winds may briefly reach gale force late this evening north of cape blanco and seas are expected to become very steep in all areas this evening into early Sunday morning. A stronger system may bring gales Sunday night through Monday. Seas are likely to peak in the 14 to 18 foot range Sunday night into Monday, with steep seas of 11-13 ft persisting through mid-week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River CDP, CA
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location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 252232 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 232 PM PST Sat Jan 25 2020

SHORT TERM. This afternoon through Tuesday night . Radar imagery has shown bands of heavy precipitation move across southern Oregon and northern California this morning and this afternoon. Rain rates were on the moderate side, however, the quick-moving nature of the precipitation has kept it from causing any real flooding problems, with the exception of ponding on roadways. The traffic cameras are indicating that rain is falling nearly everywhere, thus the snow levels remain high (above 7000 feet). This precipitation will continue moving from west to east through this evening with the next big band of precipitation entering the coast around 3 or 4 PM.

Satellite imagery shows some hints of embedded convection within the next round of precipitation. This means that some of the rainfall will become heavy at times, reaching rain rates of a half an inch an hour. Again, this should still be a relatively quick moving system, so it will preclude large-scale flooding concerns. Still, we're looking at the possibility for rapid rises along small streams and creeks in Curry County (For example: Hunter Creek in Gold Beach). Additionally, culverts in Brookings could be overwhelmed if heavy precipitation trains over the area--still, that is a bit beyond our forecasting capabilities at this time; but we will continue to monitor this.

A secondary system will continue the Atmospheric River (AR) style precipitation as it arrive at the coast between 9 to 11 PM. This next system will not bring as much precipitation as the earlier system, but together; both systems will create generous rainfall along the coast and the coast range. Snow levels will begin falling and should fall to around 4500 to 5500 feet by Sunday when things turn more showery in nature.

The next system will arrive late Sunday night into Monday. Have increased precipitation with this system as the new model guidance has increased rain and snow amounts. Snow levels will remain around 4500 to 5500 feet, so we will only get snow along the higher Cascades including portions of Highways 62 and 138 near Crater and Diamond Lake, and possible along Highway 140 at Lake of the Woods. This system will continue through Tuesday before turning more showery in nature as the precipitation comes to an end Tuesday night.

Winter travel impacts seem pretty limited at this point as do main stem river flooding concerns. That being said, expect small streams and creeks to have quick rises once again with another round of water ponding on roadways. Otherwise, the precipitation will continue building some snowpack and bring rain to some abnormally dry areas. We encourage you to stay tuned to the forecast as things may change, despite moderate to high confidence in the short-term. -Schaaf

LONG TERM. Wednesday through Saturday . The main trend in the European and American ensembles (ECE and GEFS) is for less rain in the long-term. More upper ridging and less AR activity are depicted in the latest suite of model guidance. Therefore, we have trended lower on precipitation chances and amounts from Wed through Sat.

Wednesday starts out with a warm front moving through the area, bringing generally light to moderate precipitation with snow levels rising to 7000 feet. After that, odds are in favor (though not high confidence yet) for dry weather for most of the forecast area from Thursday through Saturday. The air mass will warm significantly under high amplitude ridging, peaking in warmth on Saturday. To give context to how warm it will be aloft, GEFS 850mb (~5000ft) temperatures are forecast to be 11.5C in Medford, which is in the top 10 percent for warmth for early February.

There are a range of possibilities with this type of ridge in early Feb. Contrary to what seems sensible, these very warm, strong upper ridges can yield cold daytime temperatures in the valleys like the Rogue Valley if inversions strengthen enough. Stagnant conditions with air quality dipping into moderate (and perhaps Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups or USG) may develop as well, but are less likely as we move into February. When looking deep into the data, we find that USG air quality hasn't occurred in February in Medford since records began in 2000. That suggests that impactful Air Stagnation is unlikely for Medford. Klamath Falls does have a few USG days in its history since 2000. What's most likely is that mountains become warm and that valleys warm up as well, though some morning fog will be possible and air quality could dip into the moderate category for a few days.

Latest model trends also suggest a crash towards a much colder air mass late on or around Sunday. Confidence is low on any details that far out. -Keene

AVIATION. For the 25/18Z TAF Cycle . A frontal boundary is draped across the forecast area and has weakened some with rainfall decreasing across the area this morning. IFR conditions and widespread mountain obscuration are predominant from the Cascades westward while areas east of the Cascades are seeing a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions with some mountain obscuration. These conditions will continue through the morning. Conditions could improve some to MVFR early this afternoon, but then the front will become reinvigorated late in the afternoon, and rain will increase while conditions likely deteriorate. Some low level wind shear is possible near the coast, particularly near KOTH, this evening if surface winds do not become gusty. For now, we expect increasing turbulence with gusty winds reaching the surface as winds aloft increase. Low level wind shear is also possible from Mount Shasta northward to the Upper Klamath Basin and westward into the southern Rogue Valley. Keene/BTL

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PST Saturday, 25 Jan 2020 . Steep seas will persist through at least Wednesday morning as multiple frontal systems and swell trains move through. Southerly winds may briefly reach gale force late this evening north of Cape Blanco and seas are expected to become very steep in all areas this evening into early Sunday morning.

A stronger low pressure system may push winds to gale force late Sunday night through Monday as a low level coastal jet develops along the coast and a Gale Watch remains in place for this. Seas are likely to peak in the 14 to 18 foot range Sunday night into Monday with a dominant period around 17 seconds. Seas will lower some, but remain steep at around 11-13 ft through at least mid-week.

The next front is expected Wednesday with another brief period of gales possible. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi25 min S 19 G 23 54°F 51°F1014.1 hPa52°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi51 min S 14 G 16 54°F 52°F1014.1 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 58 mi45 min SSE 27 G 30 54°F 52°F1013 hPa (-2.1)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi49 minS 147.00 miRain52°F52°F100%1014.1 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi49 minSSE 8 G 140.25 miLight Rain Fog52°F52°F100%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEC

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:32 AM PST     6.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:40 AM PST     3.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:24 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:24 AM PST     7.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:18 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:28 PM PST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.26.25.74.843.43.33.84.75.96.97.57.56.75.33.51.70.3-0.5-0.40.41.83.44.9

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:31 AM PST     6.26 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:36 AM PST     3.29 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM PST     7.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:18 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:24 PM PST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.26.25.74.843.43.33.84.85.977.57.56.75.23.41.70.3-0.5-0.40.41.83.44.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.