Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smith River, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 8:52PM Friday July 10, 2020 6:40 PM PDT (01:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:27PMMoonset 10:23AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 203 Pm Pdt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. High pressure centered well to the southwest will maintain a light to moderate northerly flow through Sunday morning. The high will then expand northward rapidly developing a thermal trough along and near the coast. Northerly winds will increase and seas are likely to become steep to very steep, first south of cape blanco Sunday, then expanding north Monday into Tuesday. Conditions are not expected to improve until next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith River CDP, CA
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused issues with this section. Sorry for the inconfience.
location: 41.93, -124.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 102157 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 257 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2020

DISCUSSION.

Quiet weather will continue through this weekend except for the fire weather concerns discussed in the fire weather discussion below. Otherwise, the main feature we looked at today was the stratus and the potential for some drizzle along the coast tonight. The NAM model usually picks up on this when the marine layer is pretty condensed. Since the NAM is showing some spotty precipitation off the coast, then we should see some low stratus and perhaps some drizzle along the coast tonight and Saturday night.

Outside of the coastal features, we'll see a trough swing through the region with the four corners high in place for this weekend. This will result in some rather breezy conditions across most of southern Oregon and northern California this weekend. This is discussed in more detail in the fire weather discussion below.

After this weekend, the thermal trough begins to build along the coast and we'll start to see some offshore winds along the coast and over most of the west side. Next week, temperatures will be warmer than normal by only a couple of degrees. Highs will likely punch through the 90's in most of southern valleys west of the Cascades with 80's east of the Cascades. Brookings will be worth a visit with highs in the lower 80's during the afternoons next week.

The last thing worth mentioning is the potential for thunderstorms towards the end of next week on the 16th and 17th. The GFS and the National Blend of Models are picking up on 15 to 20 percent chance for thunder. We didn't throw it in the forecast officially since the probability of precipitation is near zero. This could be a symptom that the thunderstorms will be on the drier side. This thunderstorm potential will be something to pay attention to for the next few forecast cycles.

-Smith

AVIATION. For the 10/18Z TAF Cycle . IFR to MVFR exists this morning north of Port Orford along the coast and inland into the Coast Range and Umpqua Basin, and in a small area along the coats near Brookings, where partial terrain obscurations exist. Expect the stratus and fog to dissipate by afternoon. Mostly clear skies are then likely to prevail until low clouds redevelop in the IFR to MVFR range tonight, around 06Z at KOTH, then spreading inland, possibly to KRBG, by early morning. ~BTL/BPN

MARINE. Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, 10 July 2020 . High pressure centered well to the southwest off of the California coast combined with an upper level trough across the northeastern Pacific will maintain a light to moderate northerly flow through Sunday morning. Conditions could near advisory level for a small area from 5 to 20NM from the coast this afternoon and evening west of Port Orford to Point Saint George. The upper level trough will shift inland Sunday allowing the high to expand northeastward behind it, rapidly developing a thermal trough along and near the coast. The thermal trough and the resulting gusty north winds and steep seas will continue through much of the week, with Gales and very steep seas possible in the afternoons and evening south of Gold Beach.

A Gale Watch is in effect for offshore waters south of Gold Beach through Tuesday evening, but gales will likely expand in size heading into the second half of the week. Meanwhile, Small Craft Advisory conditions could develop as early as Sunday afternoon south of Cape Blanco, then spread to all of the southern Oregon coastal waters by Monday morning. Conditions are not expected to improve until the thermal trough pushes inland next Friday or Saturday. ~BTL/BPN

FIRE WEATHER. Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, 10 July 2020 . The main concern over the next several days will be gusty winds with low relative humidity Saturday afternoon and evening for portions of Fire Weather zones 624, 625 and 285 and just for Fire Weather Zone 285 Sunday afternoon and evening. Details on this will follow below.

Confidence is higher for Red Flag conditions to be met Saturday afternoon and evening due to a combination of Gusty winds and low relative humidity for most of Fire Weather Zone 285 and portions of Fire Weather Zones 624 and 625 and the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. Details can be found at RFWMFR.

There a few reasons for this. First, 700mb winds are expected to be between 15-25 kts with stronger winds pushing close to 30 kts moving in from the northwest late Saturday afternoon. At the same time, 600 mb winds are expected to be stronger (25-30 kts), covering a larger portion of the area, and there's a chance these could mix down near or at the surface as we reach max heating. Second, pressure gradients will be tighter which will be another contributing factor leading to gusty winds. Third, guidance supports lower relative humidity with some areas bottoming out below 10 percent.

An upper trough will swing north of the area (Southern B.C.) Saturday night into Sunday, which will squash down the four corners high southeast of our area. In it's wake will be a stable west to northwest flow aloft. However like Saturday, the surface pressure gradients will tighten up east of the Cascades resulting in gusty winds and low relative humidity Sunday afternoon and evening. The one difference is relative humidities are expected to be slightly higher in Fire Zones 624 and 625, so were not expecting any critical conditions there. However, guidance does suggest relative humidities will be lower in Fire Zone 285 and could be on the borderline of reaching Red Flag conditions for mainly the southeast part of the zone. There's some indications if Red Flag conditions develop, it may only be for a few hours. Even then, we'll lean on the side of caution given the high fire danger in this area and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued. For more details please see RFWMFR.

In the meantime, gusty breezes are expected in the Rogue and Applegate Valleys south and eastward to the Mount Shasta highlands, most notably over Siskiyou Summit into the northern end of the Shasta Valley Saturday afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening, but were not expecting critical conditions.

Other than the days noted above, no concerns are expected for the next 6 days. Recoveries expected to be fairly good at night for along and north of the Umpqua Divide and coast. Onshore flow will continue allowing marine stratus to return for most of the coast, especially north of Cape Blanco Coquille and Umpqua Basin.

Temperatures will warm up through Saturday, but only around 3-5 degrees above average for inland locations. Slight cooling is expected Sunday. Warming is expected for next week, but we'll still be under the influence of a weak upper trough with the four corners high remaining southeast of our area, thus no heatwave.

The general consensus among the ensembles, individual ensemble members and cluster analysis remain the same. A general troughiness remaining over the PAC NW. There will be times where the four corners ridge will try and nudge its way towards our area, but not enough to where it would bring significant heating for next week and a continued low or almost zero chance of precipitation and thunderstorms.

However, the operational GFS and to a lesser extent the ECMWF shows a south to southeast flow towards the end of the week which could tap into some monsoonal moisture with a weak trigger. If this pans out, then we could be looking at our first chance of thunderstorms. It's a ways out there, so a lot can change and so far none of the individual ensemble members show anything. We'll continue to keep a close watch on this.

-Petrucelli

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ624-625.

CA . Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 10 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ285. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for CAZ285.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Tuesday night for PZZ376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 10 mi111 min NW 18 G 19 49°F4 ft
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 13 mi53 min 61°F 54°F1020.6 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 58 mi53 min 64°F 47°F1021.8 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA10 mi45 minNNW 68.00 miFair60°F53°F78%1020.7 hPa
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR11 mi45 minVar 510.00 miFair69°F54°F59%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCEC

Wind History from CEC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmW4CalmNW3CalmS3SE3NW3CalmS3CalmCalmSW4S5CalmSW5NW4W5NW7NW8NW9N7N6
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N5S12S15S9S7S4CalmE3CalmCalmSW4S3CalmS5S4SW73N4NW6SW5NW3
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:21 AM PDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:12 AM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:00 PM PDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM PDT     2.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.65.45.85.75.14.12.81.60.70.30.41.22.33.64.85.65.95.654.23.42.92.8

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:03 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:20 AM PDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:08 AM PDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:59 PM PDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:46 PM PDT     2.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.84.75.45.85.75.14.12.81.60.70.30.51.32.43.74.85.65.95.654.13.42.92.8

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.