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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 809 Pm Pst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Strong south winds ahead of and with an approaching cold front will continue overnight through Sunday evening with high and steep seas. Winds and seas will continue to be highest north of cape blanco. A thermal through develops Monday with winds becoming northerly. Seas south of gold beach may become steep Monday afternoon into Monday night. Quieter conditions follow Tuesday into Wednesday.

FXUS66 KMFR 100558 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 958 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023

UPDATE
Updated the aviation section.

AVIATION
10/06Z TAFs...Conditions remain VFR this evening with mid and high level clouds advancing into the area ahead of a cold front. Light rain and low level wind shear have developed near shore north of Cape Blanco.

Around 12Z early Sunday morning, stronger surface winds will put an end to the shear while light to moderate rain and lower ceilings spread to all of the coast and into Douglas County. A mix of VFR and MVFR is expected with areas of mountain obscuration. Precipitation will be most intense from the coast to the Coast Range and over the northern portion of the southern Oregon Cascades, in the vicinity of Crater Lake.

Elsewhere, across northern California, south central Oregon, and the remainder of soutwest Oregon, light rain will gradually spread inland Sunday into Sunday night with freezing levels around 9000 ft msl. Ceilings will lower but largely remain VFR.
-DW


PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 903 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023/

DISCUSSION...Main updates for this evening were to fine tune PoPs and precipitation amounts to bring in line with observations.
Also, nudged temperatures downward a bit for areas south of the Umpqua Divide. Despite high level cloud cover associated with a front draped across the region, temperatures in West Side Valleys are trending as cool as they were this time last night. The front remains aimed at the northern portion of the forecast area from Cape Blanco northward through much of tonight, but will gradually shift southward early Sunday morning before finally pushing through the area during the day Sunday. For more details, see the previous discussion below. /BR-y

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Saturday December 9, 2023
Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front will continue over the coastal waters tonight into Sunday morning. The strongest winds will occur north of Port Orford.

The strong winds combined with a large westerly swell will create hazardous conditions to small craft for all waters through Sunday evening.

A cold front will pass through the waters Sunday into Sunday evening with very slowly improving conditions while winds and high and steep seas remain highest in the northern portion of the waters. Moderate seas are likely by late Sunday night.

A weak thermal through develops along the coast early Monday with winds becoming northerly. Swell heights will diminish while sea conditions south of Gold Beach may barely cross the threshold into becoming steep Monday into Monday night.

Noticeable improvement is likely Tuesday into Wednesday. Forecast uncertainty increases from Wednesday onward, but a building long period west-northwest swell at 16 to 17 seconds is possible late Wednesday into Thursday morning. -Sargeant/DW

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM PST Sat Dec 9 2023/

SHORT TERM...

The leading edge of the next atmospheric river and warm front has hit areas in central Oregon this afternoon. Most of the precipitation is falling to our north today, although the axis of moisture will slide to the south by Sunday. This will result in a very good chance of rain for all locations and perhaps some snow above 8000 feet. Those chances of rain decrease as ones moves farther to the south and east. Those waiting for snow over the higher terrain and mountains will have to wait a bit longer as the airmass is fairly warm with this precipitation event on Sunday.

A cold front will slide down from the north as a short wave swings through the region Sunday evening. The cold front doesn't appear to move that far to the east farther inland. Instead it looks like some cooler air just shoots down the coastline. In any case, the chance of rain will persist Monday morning with snow levels decreasing down to 6300 feet Monday morning. Showers are the most likely precipitation mode for most of Monday.

By Monday night, high pressure will begin to build with a thermal trough setting up along the Oregon coastline. Some light easterly flow will begin to develop, which should result in some drier and warmer air along the Oregon coastline, especially on the ridges.
This is a good pattern for fog in the valleys during the morning as high pressure builds after some wetting rain in the soils.
We added fog into the forecast to show this concern.

Overall, an active weather pattern for the next few days, although impacts should be minimal to the public at large. The fog Monday night into Tuesday could pose some issues with aviation or perhaps the morning commute.

-Smith

LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday. Tuesday starts with an upper ridge over the west coast with the upper trough that brought precipitation to the region moving eastward, leaving continued low level moisture in the valleys. Ensemble plots are in very good agreement with the upper ridge shifting to the east by Wednesday afternoon, with the next front moving rain into the coast Wednesday.
Models then begin to diverge greatly, but the majority are keeping precipitation from the Cascades westward into Thursday. Although the ensemble plots diverge greatly Thursday afternoon into Friday, the majority of the ensemble members are showing ridging and dry with morning west side valley fog. Roughly half of the ECMWF and GFS meteograms are showing precipitation reaching inland to Medford next weekend, with an increasing number of members keeping a wet pattern after next weekend through most of the following week. -Sven

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Brookings
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:08 AM PST     2.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:04 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:33 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:25 AM PST     7.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:34 PM PST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:57 PM PST     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon, Tide feet

Crescent City
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Sat -- 02:04 AM PST     2.89 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:03 AM PST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:24 AM PST     7.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:30 PM PST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:30 PM PST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:56 PM PST     5.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,