Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 4:26PM Friday December 13, 2019 3:31 PM EST (20:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:55PMMoonset 9:33AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1221 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of rain early, then chance of rain late.
Tonight..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the morning. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain, snow and sleet likely in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1221 Pm Est Fri Dec 13 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure continues to move father offshore. Meanwhile, deepening low pressure approaches from the south and passes through the area Saturday. The low lifts up into the canadian maritimes Sunday as high pressure builds through Monday. Another low pressure system impacts the waters Monday night into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 131803 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 103 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Clouds will continue to increase through the day today, with some light rain or freezing rain arriving later in the day. Steady rainfall is expected for tonight into tomorrow with milder temperatures. A strong cold front will pass through the area for Saturday night into Sunday, with some additional rain or snow showers and colder temperatures returning to the region for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1155 AM EST . Decided to expand the Winter Weather Advisory for light freezing rain to include the Mohawk/Schoharie Valleys, Lake George/Saratoga region, Helderbergs and northern/western parts of the Capital District from 1 PM to 10 PM today.

Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for parts of the southern Adirondacks and all of southern Vermont from 1 PM today to Midnight tonight for a glaze of ice due to light freezing rain.

Current observations indicate surface temperatures are still ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s from around northern/western parts of the Capital District northward. A weak band of precip noted on radar across parts of the Saratoga region and southern Adirondacks. NYS Mesonet webcams and ASOS surface obs indicating some light snow/sleet occurring with this band, as thermal profile still cold enough to support frozen precip. Have mentioned this in the latest forecast update. With thick clouds already in place, we are concerned with light freezing rain potential this afternoon into evening for these colder areas as temps aloft warm and rain falling could freeze on untreated surfaces. Air and ground temps expected to be near or slightly below freezing, thus the expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory. Will continue to watch for some other locations that have cold ground surface temperatures with spotty light precip moving in today. Will likely issue Special Weather Statements to account for any spotty light icing that may occur for areas south of the Advisory.

Temperatures are variable across the region and this depends on how strong the wind is blowing. In sheltered areas where the wind is calm, temps are in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Meanwhile, larger valleys such as Hudson Valley from ALB southward are seeing a fairly strong southerly wind, which is keeping temps elevated into the lower to mid 30s. Most of the Hudson Valley should be above freezing in the mid to upper 30s by early afternoon, although high terrain and outlying areas will be in the upper 20s to low 30s.

As warm advection begins over the region, a batch of light precipitation will lift northward from the south. Timing looks to be converging on mid to late afternoon. Initially dry air at low levels will lose some of this precip as virga, but some light rain is possible for later in the afternoon (especially for areas south of Albany).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. A fairly potent storm system will be impacting the region for tonight into the weekend. A sharp upper level trough at 500 hpa will be diving towards the Southeast for tonight and it will be taking on a negative tilt. At the surface, low pressure will be developing across the Southeast tonight and lifting directly northward towards the Northeast for Saturday. On the eastern side of the storm, a powerful low-level jet (about 2-4 STD above normal) will bring in plenty of Gulf and Atlantic moisture. Although the core of this moisture will be east of the region (more located towards eastern New England), the 850 hpa moisture flux is impressive, with 00z GEFS showing it over 5 STD above normal. PWATs look to reach 2 to 4 STD above normal, with the highest values over New England.

With a S-SE low-level jet in excess of 50 kts, Isentropic lift/warm air advection will allow for some steady rain to move towards our area, especially after Midnight tonight. The heaviest rainfall looks to be across eastern parts of the region (especially east of the Hudson Valley). As precip begins, there still could be some pockets of freezing rain across the sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks/Greens. It will be fairly isolated and ice accretion looks to be about a tenth of an inch or less before temps rise above freezing. Temps will continue to slowly rise overnight, with temps reaching the upper 30s to mid 40s by daybreak Saturday.

Steady rainfall will be continuing for Saturday morning, as the low pressure area lifts across eastern NY and western New England. Even though the storm's dry slot should be moving in after about Noon or so, some additional periods of showers are possible through the afternoon, especially western areas, which will be located on the deformation side of the storm. Max temps will reach the upper 30s to upper 40s and it will continue to be cloudy and dreary through the day.

By Saturday evening, the storm's cold front will be crossing through the day as low pressure continues to lift and deepen across Quebec. This will switch winds to the west and allow them to start to increase. Meanwhile, colder air (both at the surface and aloft) will start to rush into the region. Some lingering wrap around precip will continue (especially for the Adirondacks). Over the high terrain, this will changeover to snow showers overnight, while valley areas continue to see to light rain showers with temps falling through the 30s. The western Adirondacks could see an inch or two of snow by daybreak Sunday.

Some additional showers (mainly in the form of snow) are expected on Sunday, mostly for areas north/west of the Capital Region, as well as upslope areas of the Taconics and western New England as the strong low pressure area continues to move across northeastern Quebec. A light accumulation is possible across the highest terrain, but precip will start to taper off by afternoon. Meanwhile, much colder temps will have arrived aloft and this will promote good mixing. With the strong pressure gradient in place, it will be very gusty and some gusts of 25 to 40 mph will be possible (especially for high terrain and locations that channel westerly flow). Temps will remain in the 30s within the cold advection in place. A few lake effect snow showers are possible for western areas on Sunday night, otherwise it looks to be clearing and colder with lows in the teens and 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Another southern stream storm system is expected to impact the region early next week. Guidance is in agreement that there should not be phasing with northern stream energy so the system remains progressive moving through rather quickly. Ridging across the region Monday will shift off to the east as the low pressure system approaches from the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. There are some timing differences but there is agreement of a track with the surface low passing over Pennsylvania and southern New England. Have used a blended approach to the forecast and once the atmosphere moistens up overrunning precipitation is expected to overspread the area Monday night. The precipitation continues on Tuesday and at this time is expected to taper off by the evening. Initially it should be cold enough for snow however guidance has the 850 mb low tracking over the Saint Lawrence River Valley bringing in warmer air aloft. The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS with the warm air. Again used a blended approach and looking at a period of mixed precipitation with sleet and freezing rain to south and east of the Capital District and snow to the north and west. As the low moves off to our east colder air will be drawn back in with a changeover back to snow as the precipitation tapers off. At this time a plowable snowfall is possible across much of the area.

A northern stream system is expected to quickly follow with best chances for snow showers to the north and west of the Capital District. With its passage a colder airmass is expected to be ushered in. A reinforcing shot of colder air is possible. Anticipating lows down in the single digits and teens Wednesday night.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/.

MVFR ceilings will persist through the TAF period due to ceilings as area of widespread rain overspread the region this evening into tonight. Cold ground temperature looks to support a brief period of freezing rain at GFL between 23z/13 and 04z/14 before temperatures warm enough to support plain rain. However, should temperature stay cold longer, we may need to extend the period of freezing rain at GFL.

Elsewhere, expecting widespread rain to arrive from south to north between 02z/13 and 05z/14 with visibility reducing to 2-3SM with the lowest at PSF where the rain should be heaviest. Ceiling should also drop near or after 06z/14 to near 1kft and while it is possible for IFR ceilings, we did not have enough confidence to include ceilings lower than 1kft at this time.

The heaviest rain exits from west to east tomorrow morning between 12z/14 and 15z/14 but ceilings should remain MVFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

Northerly winds near or less than 5kts will persist through the remainder of the TAF period with east-northeast winds between 5-10kts at PSF. Low-level shift shear is possible this evening from 00z to 04z at POU but we did not include the potential in the latest update due to the short duration and marginal nature of it.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy Likely SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Likely RA. SN . SLEET. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHSN. SN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.

HYDROLOGY. Rivers and streams remain elevated from the recent rainfall and snow melt that occurred earlier in the week. The next storm system will be approaching the region from the south today. Although the day will start off dry, some light rainfall is expected to move in during the day, but any amounts look light through the day.

The steadiest rainfall looks to occur for late Friday night into Saturday morning and some locally heavier bursts are possible, especially across western New England. Rainfall will taper to showers and may change to snow showers for the high terrain for Saturday night into Sunday.

Total rainfall with this system appears to be about 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with some locally higher totals possible across the high terrain (especially in western New England). This will allow rivers and streams to once again rise. Milder temperatures returning with the rainfall may allow for some additional runoff due to snow melt as well.

At this time, MMEFS suggest that most rivers should remain within their banks. There is a low probability of some flooding mainly in the western New England basins (Walloomsac, Hoosic and Housatonic) Saturday into Saturday night. No Flood Watch is in effect at this time, but if heavier rainfall appears more likely, one could be needed.

Behind this system, colder and drier weather will return for Monday. The next system could approach for Monday night into Tuesday, but precipitation is mainly expected to be snow or a wintry mix with that system, which won't have an immediate impact on rivers and streams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ038>041-043-047>051-083-084. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ033- 042-082. MA . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VTZ013>015.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . Frugis/JPV SHORT TERM . Frugis LONG TERM . IAA AVIATION . Speciale HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi56 min Calm G 1.9 33°F 35°F1026.2 hPa31°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi62 min Calm 32°F 1025 hPa29°F
NPXN6 8 mi122 min NW 2.9 32°F 1028 hPa26°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi50 min NNE 5.1 G 8 40°F 44°F1024.4 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 71 mi47 min ENE 14 G 19 43°F 1 ft40°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi39 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F28°F76%1024.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4N3N3Calm
1 day agoS43S3SW6SW6SW5W7W9NW5NW10
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2 days agoS4SW6N5SW3SE3CalmNW7NW6CalmN3NE4NE5N5NE9N4W3CalmCalmSW3SW3CalmS3SW65

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:45 AM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:11 AM EST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:43 PM EST     4.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:00 PM EST     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.43.53.22.51.60.70.1-0.201.12.53.64.24.34.13.42.41.40.5-0.1-0.401.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:15 AM EST     3.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:32 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 08:41 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:13 PM EST     4.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:30 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.43.73.63.12.21.20.4-0.1-0.20.51.93.34.34.64.543.2210.2-0.3-0.30.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.