Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:35PM Thursday February 20, 2020 11:24 AM EST (16:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:15AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 918 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 918 Am Est Thu Feb 20 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure over the central states will be in control through Friday. The high pressure settles south of the area Friday night into the weekend and then offshore on Monday. Low pressure approaches from the south and west Monday night, with the low passing nearby on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 201337 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 837 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Other than some lake effect snow this morning, fair weather is expected through the weekend with our next chances for precipitation not expected until early next week. Below normal temperatures through Friday moderating to above normal over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for southern Herkimer County through 1 PM .

As of 830 AM EST, quick update to account for area of snow showers which have fragmented off earlier band from Mohawk Valley, now extending into northern portions of the Capital Region. These snow showers should continue drifting east over the next 2 hours, and gradually weaken. They should reach into southern Saratoga County and across Rensselaer County as well, before potentially affecting portions of central/northern Berkshire County and possibly extreme SW Bennington County.

As the core of snow showers move through, a quick couple of tenths of an inch could occur. Locally slippery road conditions may result, and Special Weather Statements have been issued accordingly.

Elsewhere, regional radar suggests snow showers are drifting more southward across central NYS, with NYS Mesonet webcams also suggesting snow showers decreasing in intensity across the western Mohawk Valley including southern Herkimer County, where current advisory remains in effect. If these trends continue, will likely cancel the advisory earlier than its 1 PM end time.

Previous discussion follows .

As of 630 AM EST . The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for southern Herkimer County through this morning as lake effect snow continues off of Lake Ontario. NYS Mesonet web cams indicate light snow is occurring even where radar returns are very weak. Lake effect is not organized with pieces breaking off and moving down the Mohawk Valley. Overall for the event the greatest totals are expected south of the Thruway in the southwest portion of the county. Winds will turn more northerly as a reinforcing boundary moves through today and the lake effect will shift southward. It will retreat this afternoon as higher pressure builds in.

Otherwise, it will be a fair and cold day with temperatures around 10 degrees below normal. An Arctic high centered over the Plains will expanded eastward into our region, while aloft a positively tilted trough will be making its way across the region.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. The sprawling high will shifted southward eventually settling over the Southeast United States this weekend. The upper level trough will finally move off to our east overnight and ridging will build in Friday. The ridging will get surpressed as a northern stream short wave trough passes to our north Friday night with nearly flat flow for the weekend. Looking at fair weather for our region.

It will be cold tonight with temperatures around 10 degrees below normal. Expecting lows just above 10 degrees in the mid Hudson Valley into northwestern Connecticut with just below zero degrees across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain of the southern Green Mountains with single digits elsewhere. Temperatures will begin to moderate but still run below normal Friday with seasonable to slight above normal for Saturday as flow shifts more to the west.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A mild and dry pattern on Sunday will transition to a much more unsettled pattern by the middle of next week. High pressure along the mid-Atlantic coast will bring mild dry weather to the northeast CONUS on Sunday with west-southwest flow around the northern rim of the high bringing mild air over our area from the lower midwest. The dry, mild weather will probably hold into Monday, however by late Monday an area of low pressure will be tracking northeast up the Ohio Valley which may spread some light precipitation across the area toward evening.

The weather will become much more unsettled after Monday as the pattern changes and a highly amplified upper-level trough develops over the eastern half of the CONUS by late week. The transition from mild and dry to this deep trough will be accompanied by a series of short waves and associated low pressure areas moving eastward from the midwest. Details are very uncertain at this point with lots of model differences. For example, on Tuesday the GFS is forecasting low pressure moving up the Saint Lawrence River which would bring mild, wet weather to area. However the ECMWF shows high pressure building across eastern Canada which forces a weakening surface low eastward off the mid-Atlantic coast bringing a colder scenario for our with the potential for freezing rain or snow, especially across the north. At this point the Canadian model appears to side with the colder ECMWF. All of the models eventually develop low pressure off the New England coast by Thursday, moving toward the Canadian maritimes. This would bring an end to the widespread unsettled weather by the end of the week, although conditions will turn much colder and there would likely be some lake effect snow west of the Hudson Valley and also over higher terrain.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Scattered light snow showers will be mostly west of the Hudson Valley early this morning, however a few flurries could make it into the valley. These flurries will be very light and will produce little in the way of cig or vsby reductions, and overall conditions should remain VFR at the TAF sites through early this morning. High pressure will build toward the area later today and tonight, with sct-bkn clouds above 3000 feet expected this afternoon then clear skies tonight. Winds will be west- northwest at 10 kts or less early this morning, and 5 to 15 kts later today. Winds will be light and variable tonight.

Outlook .

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of RA. SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of RA. SN.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrological issues anticipated for the next several days. Outside some lake effect snow this morning, it will be through the weekend. Our chances for precipitation are not expected until early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ038. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . IAA NEAR TERM . IAA/KL SHORT TERM . IAA LONG TERM . MSE AVIATION . MSE HYDROLOGY . IAA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi55 min 31°F 33°F1031.5 hPa10°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi55 min WNW 1 30°F 1030 hPa11°F
NPXN6 8 mi55 min SW 2.9 28°F 1032 hPa10°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi55 min 31°F 39°F1031 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 71 mi65 min NNW 9.7 G 14 32°F 1 ft14°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi32 minWSW 1010.00 miFair31°F8°F38%1030.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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N9N9NW7W6W4W6N5NW5W4W3W6W4W9CalmCalmCalmCalm5W10
1 day agoCalm3SE5CalmSE6CalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW10NW3NW4NW4W5W4W5W5W7NW11W18
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2 days ago534NW7N8N6N6N6N4N3Calm--CalmCalmCalmN3N4N3SW3E35SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:13 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:14 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:20 AM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:39 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:49 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.41.81.10.50.10.31.122.83.43.83.83.22.51.70.90.2-0.10.31.11.92.63.1

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:15 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:43 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:50 AM EST     4.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:38 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:34 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:24 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.82.21.50.90.30.10.71.62.53.33.94.13.83.12.31.40.5-00.10.71.62.43.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.