Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rhinecliff, NY

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message:

- A period of light snow or a wintry mix is likely across some areas mainly north of Interstate 90 overnight into Sunday morning before changing over to rain.

Discussion:

A few showers continue overnight ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. Most of the showers are located south and east of Albany with a few isolated showers in the Adirondacks.
These showers will gradually diminish into the early morning hours with the cold front crossing the region. Thereafter, a small area of high pressure builds into the region for the rest of the day bringing a period of dry weather with some breaks of sun. A westerly breeze will develop by the afternoon but gusts will only reach 20-25 mph, mainly within the Mohawk Valley, Capital District and Berkshires corridor. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the 40s and 50s. If there is enough sun, portions of the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT could reach the lower 60s.

Tonight will start out dry before precipitation chances increase for the second half of the night. It appears there will be some clearing to start the night and, with light to calm winds, ideal radiational cooling conditions could occur for a period of time causing temperatures to fall quickly. Temperatures look to bottom out in the upper 20s to upper 30s. Thereafter, clouds will increase trapping the low level cold air as an approaching upper level shortwave, mid- level warm front and isentropic lift brings a period of precipitation from south to north across the area. Pending surface temperatures, light snow or a wintry mix could set up for some locations mainly north of I-90, especially the higher elevations. Elsewhere, precipitation would just be in the form of rain. Any wintry mix accumulations look low with 1-2 inches of snow/sleet across portions of the Adirondacks with at most a light coating in other locations. Freezing rain amounts look to be only a few hundredths of an inch at best and concentrated across the higher elevations only.

By Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to rise with wintry precipitation ending. An area of low pressure will track to the west of our area from the Ohio Valley into western New York and into Quebec. In addition, a wave of low pressure looks to develop near and just off the mid-Atlantic coast and track northeastward. While the bulk of the precipitation from both systems may remain both east and west of our area, we still expect some periods of rain Sunday through Sunday night, though there can be some drier periods mixed in. We will monitor the potential for a cold frontal rain band that may cross the area Sunday afternoon into the early evening bringing a brief period of steadier rainfall. Otherwise, expect a cloudy day with highs in the upper 30s to mid-50s.

These systems will gradually depart the region Sunday night as a deep upper level trough slides eastward into the region for Monday. As colder air moves into the region and westerly flow resumes, lake effect and upslope rain/snow showers will begin to organize which will continue into the long term period. Highs Monday will only reach the 30s and 40s with some lower 50s across the mid-Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Key Message:

- High confidence for below normal temps much of the week, with multiple rounds of lake effect snow across the western Adirondacks/western Mohawk Valley Mon night through Thu.

Discussion:

An anomalous mid and upper level trough will be over the eastern CONUS for much of the long term. H500 heights will run -2 to -4 STDEVs below normal to open the extended. H850 temps will be -1 to -2 STDEVs below normal Mon night into Veterans Day, as lake effect snow bands develop downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
The latest NBM guidance indicates 24-hr probabilities >4" are in the 25-50% range over the western Dacks of northern Herkimer and western Hamilton Counties by 12Z WED. Lake effect would begin to develop Mon night and pick up on Veterans Day and start to weaken or get disrupted with another short-wave trough mid week. Expect chilly temps Mon night in the 20s with some teens in the Adirondack Park. A wintry and brisk day is expected on Veterans Day with temps running 10-15 degrees below normal with mid 30s to lower 40s for highs in the valleys and mid 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain. Tue night will not be quite as cold as the low-level flow backs ahead of the disturbance with lows in the 20s to lower 30s.

The next northern stream short-wave trough/clipper impacts the forecast area Wed-Thu. Some warm advection occurs during the day Wed for rain showers in most areas with a mix of rain/snow over the highest terrain. As the short-wave trough moves over northern NY and Quebec Wed night into Thu morning the pcpn transitions to lake effect and westerly upslope snow showers.
Some light to modest snow accums may occur over the western Dacks, western Mohawk Valley and southern Greens. Max temps will still run below normal on Wed with mid to upper 40s in the lower elevations and 30s to around 40F over the hills and mtns.
Lows fall back into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Lake effect/upslope snow/rain showers continue THU, but the warming boundary layer may limit accums during the day, except above 2000 ft in the western Dacks/southern Greens. Temps maybe comparable to Wed with brisk conditions, as the downstream wave redevelops some near Nova Scotia. Some ridging attempts to build in from the Upper Midwest to Ohio Valley Thu night into Fri diminishing the snow shower activity with temps running 5-10 degrees below normal with north/northwest flow aloft persisting.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Thru 12Z Sun...A cold front will move across the eastern NY and western New England TAF sites in the late morning between 14Z-17Z/Sat. Some patchy IFR/MVFR mist and stratus may briefly impact KPOU/KPSF prior to 14Z/Sat. Any MVFR cigs should rise back to VFR cigs in the 3.5-5 kft AGL range with clearing conditions into the mid pm. Some mid and high clouds will begin to increase south and west of KALB quickly between 23Z/Sat and 02Z/Sun. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower towards and just after midnight with some light rain and snow possibly mixed with sleet/freezing rain. PROB30 groups were used at all the TAF sites between 08Z-12Z/Sun with possible MVFR conditions.

The winds will increase to the south/southwest to the west/northwest in the late morning at 8-13 KT with a few gusts around 20 KT at KALB. The winds will be 5-10 KT from the west/northwest into the late pm and become variable in direction at 3 KT or less early tonight. Light north/northeast winds will be 3-6 KT after midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Veterans Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy
Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy
Slight Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.