Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rhinecliff, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:33PM Friday July 10, 2020 8:20 PM EDT (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:53AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 818 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
Tonight..SE winds 30 to 40 kt, becoming S 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt after midnight, then diminishing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers and slight chance of tstms this evening, then showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm this evening.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the morning, then tstms likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms likely early in the evening, then chance of showers and tstms late in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of tstms early in the evening. Chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early in the evening.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 818 Pm Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical storm fay will track over new york city tonight, and move well north of the region by Saturday morning. A series of weak fronts will then cross the area through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rhinecliff CDP, NY
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As of July 8 NOAA did a network migration which caused this Forecast section to break. They are aware of the problem and working on it with high priority.
location: 41.94, -73.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 102351 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 751 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay will bring a moderate to heavy rainfall to the region through early Saturday morning. The storm will track northward from the New Jersey coast into eastern New York tonight, then across Vermont on Saturday. Warm, humid and unsettled weather with occasional showers and thunderstorms, will continue for the rest of the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 730 PM . TS Fay made landfall along coastal NJ per GOES and radar imagery. However, rain shield is a bit disorganized at the moment. Per the H2O vapor loop channels, drier air was filter in along the southeast periphery of the TS as this system tracks northward. However, a gradually fill in per the HRRR/NAM3km is anticipated the next few hours so we will keep the high PoP grids at this time. Wind gusts have begun to increase toward I84 corridor and with the ESE winds into the hill of NW CT, Berks and Taconics with magnitudes 15-20kts. The other issue was to the dewpoint grids as values are climbing as we will increase those values by a few degrees. Regardless, a very warm, moist atmosphere with tropical moisture so any rainfall will be locally heavy, especially were favored upslope conditions occur with the wind field trajectories.

Prev Disc.. Flash Flood Watch expanded to include Northern Saratoga County, otherwise remains in effect for much of eastern NY from the central/eastern Mohawk Valley and Capital District southward, and the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills into Saturday morning .

As of 400 PM EDT . Tropical Storm Fay continues to track northward along the New Jersey coast late this afternoon. Rain bands on the northern fringe of Tropical Storm Fay have moved northward into areas just south of Albany, and should starting moving into the Capital District in the next 1-2 hours. Showers with embedded heavy rainfall have been mainly limited to NYC area thus far, and but we are anticipating some bands of heavy rainfall to increase from south to north into this evening as Fay accelerates northward along the NJ coast and eventually into NYC this evening. Deep plume of high PWATs (greater than 2 inches and +2 to +3 STDEV) starting to surge northward from the Lower Hudson Valley and NYC area, so localized intense rainfall rates and the threat for flash flooding will develop this evening. Severe threat has decreased with lack of instability in the NE quadrant of the storm.

Rainbands will continue to gradually shift northward into areas north of the Capital District between around 6-10 PM. Will mention slight chance of thunder for some isolated thunderstorms, but there has been a decreasing trend in thunderstorm activity over the past few hours. The main threat will be localized flash flooding, however we have increased wind speeds and gusts across mainly southern Dutchess and Litchfield Counties tonight, with Fay taking a more NW track compared to prior forecasts. Winds speeds will be around 20-25 mph in this area. Some occasional gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible along the Litchfield Hills, Berkshires and even the southern Greens.

Models have converged on a solution tracking Fay northward across NYC then along the eastern part of the Hudson Valley into the Taconics tonight into early Saturday morning. Will mention locally heavy rainfall through this time, ending from south to north Saturday morning.

It will be warm and muggy overnight with the tropical system moving across the region, with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Showers with embedded downpours will start to decrease from south to north Saturday morning, and should be confined to areas north of the Mohawk Valley and Capital District after 8 AM. Localized downpours will lead to some ponding of water but the system is expected to accelerate as it tracks into Vermont, so not expecting any additional flash flooding across northern areas during the morning. The remnants of Fay will track into northern Vermont by late Saturday morning, with the widespread showers ending across northern areas by then.

We will only get a brief break from the active weather though, as we are expecting an upper level trough to move eastward from the lower Great Lakes during the afternoon. With a very moist air mass in place in the wake of Fay (PWATs still +1 to +2 STDEV) and at least some sunshine, moderate instability is expected to build with SBCAPE values around 1500-2500 K/Jg across much of the area. This will result in the potential for strong to severe storms with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall the main threats. Deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates look modest/weak and are mitigating factors to a more widespread threat. Our region is currently in a Marginal Risk Outlook for severe storms from the Storm Prediction Center. There is a threat of isolated flash flooding as well, with a Marginal/Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall from WPC. Will mention both threats in the HWO. It is possible a Flash Flood Watch may eventually be needed tomorrow for areas that receive the heaviest rainfall from Fay.

It will remain very warm and humid with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs expected to reach the mid/upper 80s, which will result in heat indices in the lower 90s.

Showers/storms will linger into the evening as the trough slowly moves eastward across the region, with the severe threat gradually decreasing. Isolated/scattered showers will be possible Saturday night, but as instability wanes will leave out mention of thunder after midnight. Temperatures will be slightly "cooler" than recent nights, but still rather warm and humid.

Sunday now looks to be the most tranquil weather day of the near/short term period. Saturday night's trough will shift well north/east into northern New England, while another trough dives into the central Great Lakes. While still under the influence of a broad upper level trough, our region will be between these two main systems. With a weak disturbance passing through, there will still be a chance of showers, but coverage/intensity of any thunderstorms should be limited. Will only mention slight chance of thunder at this time. Temperatures will continue to be above normal, with mid/upper 80s expected again for highs in the Hudson Valley. Mainly dry conditions in store for Sunday night, with just a slight chance of a shower as the upstream trough approaches but most of the forcing will not arrive until Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. There remains above average confidence amongst global forecast models and their ensembles that the long term period will consist of a warmer than normal pattern with the potential for temperatures to trend higher as time progresses.

As far as precipitation trends, forecast models so far are suggesting a pretty active period for the FA during this timeframe. A mid-upper trough is expected to become closed in the vicinity of southeastern Canada and the Northeast U.S. Monday through Tuesday. This will bring with it the chances for showers and thunderstorms across our FA during the afternoon and evening hours on both days (especially Monday).

Wednesday through Friday, forecast models are indicating the heat dome currently over the Southwestern and South-Central U.S. to connect with a sub-tropical heat ridge over Bermuda to establish an elongated heat ridge complex across the southern 2/3rds of the nation. Concurrent with that will be an upper level trough currently over western Canada, that by midweek, will be positioned over central Canada. This feature will eject upper energy/mid level perturbations eastward along a jet stream boundary that will separate this feature from the heat ridge complex to the south. The question at this point is where exactly will the jet stream be positioned in which these shortwaves/storm systems track on. Wednesday looks dry, but models are indicating a couple of disturbances/perturbations (in the form of showers and storms) potentially impacting the FA both Thursday afternoon/evening and possibly again Friday afternoon/evening. That said, have included 30% pops for both Thursday and Friday (during the afternoon/evening hours).

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Per latest guidance and NHC, TS Fay will track northward across the region tonight. VFR conditions will likely be brief and drop back to MVFR with occasional IFR conditions within heavier rain showers through tonight. These flight restrictions will spread from south to north and continue toward sunrise. Some improvements should occur in the wake of TS Fay Saturday morning before the next impact from convection develops in the afternoon hours. For that, we will place a PROB30 for TSRA for all TAF sites beginning at 18Z/Sat.

Winds, all dependent on the track of Fay, will likely be southerly or southeasterly through this evening and into the early overnight period. A bit more gusts may occur at KPOU-KPSF with magnitudes near 20kts. Otherwise, LLWS was introduced for KPOU as winds aloft near the center of Fay will pass nearby. Then those winds become southerly to southwesterly Saturday ahead of our next wave with magnitudes around 10kts.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact Likely SHRA. TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact Likely SHRA. TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. Tropical storm Fay will bring a moderate to heavy rainfall to the region through early Saturday morning. The storm will track northward from the New Jersey coast into eastern New York tonight, then across Vermont on Saturday. Warm, humid and unsettled weather with occasional showers and thunderstorms, will continue for the rest of the weekend into early next week.

HYDROLOGY. Tropical storm Fay will track northward along the New Jersey coast into New York City this evening, then northeast across eastern New York and Vermont tonight into Saturday morning. With plenty of tropical moisture, this system will bring a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through Saturday morning. There will be some localized bands of heavier rainfall where rainfall rates could reach an inch per hour for a few hours. This would most likely occur along east facing slopes of higher terrain such as the eastern Catskills and Helderbergs mountains.

Localized flash flooding will be possible in poor drainage and urbanized areas where heavy rain persists for more than a couple of hours. Larger rivers in our area will likely experience some rises around 2 to 4 feet through Saturday, however we are not expecting enough rainfall for any main stem river flooding since antecedent conditions are rather dry and flows on area rivers are low. Some flooding or flash flooding may occur along smaller streams and creeks.

After a brief break later Saturday morning, additional showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding will be possible where persistent downpours occur. An additional Flash Flood Watch may be needed for later Saturday for areas that receive the heaviest rainfall from Fay.

Only isolated showers and storms are expected on Sunday, but a stronger system looks to bring more widespread showers and storm on Monday, again with locally heavy rainfall.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for CTZ001-013. NY . Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NYZ039>041- 047>054-058>061-063>066-082. MA . Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MAZ001-025. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . BGM/JPV NEAR TERM . BGM/JPV SHORT TERM . JPV LONG TERM . Evbuoma AVIATION . BGM FIRE WEATHER . JPV HYDROLOGY . JPV


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 5 mi50 min N 8.9 G 13 77°F 81°F1008.2 hPa75°F
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 6 mi50 min Calm 75°F 1008 hPa74°F
NPXN6 8 mi50 min N 1.9 76°F 1009 hPa73°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 66 mi50 min ESE 8.9 G 14 74°F 73°F1007.3 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 71 mi95 min ESE 18 G 27 75°F 1 ft71°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY21 mi27 minESE 89.00 miLight Rain75°F72°F90%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmE5CalmSE3SE4CalmCalmCalmNE3N3CalmNE4NE7E6NE6E8E6E8NE8NE8NE10
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1 day agoSE3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm34W6SW4546S5S4SE6
2 days agoSE5SE5SE6E6CalmE3E4SE4SE3S433S3S4SW4CalmS9
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Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:00 AM EDT     3.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:29 PM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:40 PM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.11.92.73.43.843.73.12.21.30.80.40.411.82.63.13.53.63.22.51.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:25 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:30 AM EDT     4.20 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:59 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 PM EDT     3.82 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.91.52.53.33.84.14.13.72.81.81.10.60.30.71.52.433.53.83.73.12.31.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.