Saturday, November28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Conneaut, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 4:55PM Saturday November 28, 2020 11:23 AM EST (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 5:35AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ148 Expires:202011281515;;516088 Fzus51 Kcle 280910 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 410 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez147-148-281515- Willowick To Geneva-on-the Lake Oh-geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 410 Am Est Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Partly Sunny this morning, then clearing. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 47 degrees.
LEZ148


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Conneaut, OH
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location: 41.94, -80.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 281446 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 946 AM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build over the region this weekend. Attention will then be on low pressure developing near the Gulf Coast that will track north to Pennsylvania on Monday and linger over the eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday. This system will bring a combination of rain, snow, and gusty winds for the early part of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Stratocu continues to form off of Lake Erie bringing partly to mostly cloudy skies to lakeshore areas in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania. Increased cloud cover in the forecast for these areas for the morning with a gradual clearing trend through the afternoon.

Previous discussion . A weak cold front has moved across the area early this morning. Clouds are slowly clearing from west to east across the region with the clearing line near I-71. High pressure will build in across the Ohio Valley this weekend. Skies will be generally mostly clear today through Sunday. Temperatures will be close to seasonable levels this weekend. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the 40s to near 50. Lows tonight will be in the lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Main concern of the short term period is the potential for moderate snow accumulation across the region, particularly along the I-71 corridor and along the primary and secondary snowbelts of NE OH and NW PA. Confidence is slowly increasing on timing and location of the heaviest axis of snow, but will continue to monitor trends through the weekend. Snow headlines will likely be needed sometime Monday night through Tuesday night.

On Sunday night, subtropical jet energy will phase with an energetic polar jet, allowing a PV intrusion of stratospheric air down into the troposphere. Forecast soundings on Monday night have the tropopause as low as 500 mb. This will be a dynamic and quite anomalous synoptic system with 500 mb height anomalies at least 4 standard deviations below climatology via NAEFS and ENS.

Low pressure will deepen slightly throughout the day Monday, with forecast high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s west of I-71. On the "warm" side of the low, high temperatures could reach the low to mid 40s across NE OH and NW PA. Precipitation is expected to begin early Monday morning across the area in the form of a rain/snow mix west of I-71 and mainly rain east of I-71. A changeover to all rain is possible across the area for at least a few hours during the day Monday as temperatures warm slightly, though a continuous rain/snow or even all snow scenario is possible along the I-75 corridor throughout Monday. It will be blustery Monday and Monday night, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph possible, especially along and west of I-71.

By Monday evening, colder air arrives, with at least a rain/snow mix expected across the entire area, though an all snow scenario is likely along and west of I-71. By Monday night, widespread snow is expected across the area with lake-enhanced/wrap-around moisture from the low pressure system as it reaches the Northeast and its motion slows. This is the likely the beginning of the heaviest period of snow, as the DGZ lowers into areas more favorable areas of omega. This period/s of snow should last well into Tuesday. Also of note, blustery conditions will remain through Monday night, with windchill in the low to mid teens possible.

Snow will continue across the area Tuesday, becoming moderate to possibly heavy at times, especially along and just south of the lakeshore vicinity, becoming enhanced by a relatively warm Lake Erie in the mid to upper 40s and in any higher elevation areas. The GFS and its ensembles are particularly aggressive with snow totals during this period, being several inches higher than other guidance and deterministic guidance. Upon further inspection, this may be due to the GFS having a more favorable DGZ/omega crossover. Snow will begin to taper by Tuesday night as height rises and drier mid- level air arrive from the west.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As the snow begins to exit the region on Wednesday, the main story will be the cold and windy early Wednesday morning, with windchill in the single digits possible across the highlands from Mansfield to Marion. Some lingering lake effect snow may be possible across NE OH and NW PA Wednesday morning, before diminishing by Wednesday afternoon. Additional light snow accumulations are possible. Brief high pressure will attempt to build in from the southeast on Thursday, before another low pressure system develops across the southern Tier of CONUS on Friday. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/. The stratus deck of clouds have almost cleared out of our eastern areas. Some MVFR ceilings may be possible for a few more hours for YNG and ERI. All TAF sites will see VFR later this morning through the time period. Winds will continue to westerly to southwesterly around 5 to 10 knots for this TAF period.

Outlook . Non-VFR likely Monday and Tuesday and may continue into Wednesday for the Snowbelt region.

MARINE. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie nearshore zones through at least the morning. Have kept Erie through this evening given the more favorable fetch. Winds will shift more southwesterly and southerly, 15 to 20 knots, tonight through tomorrow so although a Small Craft Advisory may be needed, given the offshore flow, conditions appear very marginal. A low pressure system will track northeast across the Ohio Valley on Monday, shifting winds towards the north, 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots by Monday afternoon. North to northwest flow, 20 to 25 knots will persist through Tuesday. As the pressure gradient continues to tighten on Tuesday evening, west to northwest winds may further increase near 25 to 30 knots Tuesday evening and overnight. West winds, 20 to 25 knots will continue through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed sometime Monday morning and will likely continue through the period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for LEZ147- 148. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ149.

SYNOPSIS . Griffin NEAR TERM . KEC/Griffin SHORT TERM . Kahn LONG TERM . Kahn AVIATION . Griffin MARINE . Kahn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 25 mi114 min WNW 15 G 17
EREP1 28 mi54 min W 11 G 15
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 42 mi54 min W 12 G 16 42°F 45°F1019.9 hPa30°F
NREP1 44 mi114 min NW 17 G 24

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ashtabula - Northeast Ohio Regional Airport, OH15 mi31 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F28°F62%1021.2 hPa
Erie, Erie International Airport, PA20 mi33 minW 910.00 miA Few Clouds42°F28°F58%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHZY

Wind History from HZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7W8W8W6W6W5W4W4SW3SW5SW7W7W5SW3SW5SW6NW12NW7NW11
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1 day agoW12W12W10W7--W6W6W6W4S3S4SW4CalmS3W4SW3CalmSW4SW6SW5SW5SW4W5W6
2 days agoS7S10S10S9S12S14S8S10S8SE10SE9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.