Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Conneaut, OH

KEY MESSAGES
1) The next chance of widespread showers and storms will be with a cold front on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A cold front will move east across the area this morning.
Scattered showers are possible this morning with a few thunderstorms possible near the front in southern zones during peak diurnal heating this afternoon. The best instability will be to the south of the CWA so severe weather is not expected.

From there, dry weather is expected tonight through much of Tuesday night. By early Wednesday morning, rain chances will increase ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Showers will progress southeastward across the area Wednesday morning into the afternoon and there may be some convection inland from Lake Erie during the afternoon. Overall, instability seems meager in comparison to recent days and guidance suggests that QPF will be relatively light so the chance of severe weather and heavy rainfall are low at this point. A dry and cooler air mass will arrive behind the front Thursday and Friday with below normal highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s expected.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
The forecast period beings with overcast conditions with variable ceilings ranging from 500 ft to 5,000+ ft. A cold front will work its way southeast across the area this morning through early afternoon, producing isolated to scattered rain showers.
But as the front works its way across the area, conditions should improve, giving way to SCT/BKN clouds in the 3,000-5,000 ft range. Clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the afternoon/evening with VFR conditions expected this evening through tonight. Patchy BR/FG is possible tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
North flow around 15 knots this morning may produce waves in the 2 to 3 ft range in the central basin of Lake Erie, with a moderate rip current risk through the morning hours. High pressure gradually builds in tonight and tomorrow, with gradually improving conditions.

Southwest flow develops Tuesday afternoon/evening ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind speeds peaking in the 15-20 knot range Tuesday night. Current forecast calls for 2-3 ft waves in the central and eastern basins of Lake Erie, with a low chance of 4 ft waves if we get a few hours of 20 knot winds.

The cold front crosses the lake on Wednesday, with winds turning northwest Wednesday evening and then northeast Thursday into Friday as high pressure builds in from the northwest.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.