Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Timberlake, OH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:11PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 12:10 PM EST (17:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:09PMMoonset 5:49AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Expires:202102242115;;050274 Fzus61 Kcle 241511 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 1011 Am Est Wed Feb 24 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis.. Low pressure 29.70 inches will move northeast through the great lakes region today, bringing a cold front across the area this afternoon. A ridge averaging 30.20 inches will build east across the great lakes region tonight into Thursday morning and persist through Friday night. On Saturday, low pressure 29.60 inches will bring a warm front north across lake erie, followed by a cold front Saturday evening. A ridge averaging 30.10 inches will begin to build over the area on Monday. Lez164>168-242115- the islands to vermilion oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border-geneva-on- the-lake to conneaut oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- 1011 am est Wed feb 24 2021
This afternoon..South winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. A slight chance of rain showers. Waves in ice free areas 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves in ice free areas occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A slight chance of rain and snow showers in the evening, then a slight chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming west. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain and snow Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow Sunday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LEZ166


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timberlake, OH
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location: 41.94, -81.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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FXUS61 KCLE 241537 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1037 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. As a low moves east-northeastward across the Central Great Lakes, it will drag a warm front northeastward across our area this morning and then drag a cold front eastward through northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon through early evening. Behind the front, high pressure builds eastward through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. Temperatures are quite warm already this morning in the mid to upper 40s and will continue to climb with breezy southwesterly winds until a cold front arrives from the west late this morning. Skies remain mostly sunny with cloud cover approaching from Central Ohio. Dewpoints remain fairly low and running below what several guidance sources are indicating. This may result in lower chances of showers in the east ahead of the front this afternoon and will consider lowering pops for the next forecast update.

Previous discussion . A shortwave trough advances eastward from the Upper Midwest to the eastern Great Lakes by this evening and then to ME and vicinity by daybreak Thursday. Simultaneously, the accompanying surface low moves east-northeastward from the western Great Lakes to the Canadian Maritimes. This low will drag a surface warm front northeastward through our CWA this morning, while the trailing surface cold front sweeps east across our region this early afternoon through early evening. Surface ridging builds eastward behind the cold front.

Isentropic lift aloft and low-level convergence along the cold front will likely allow scattered rain showers to develop along and ahead of the front this afternoon and early evening, especially along and east of I-71. This is where model guidance is in good agreement that deeper low-level moisture in the warm sector and a greater potential for the seeder-feeder process will boost precip potential. Low-level WAA within the warm sector and intervals of sunshine should allow highs to easily reach the upper 40's to lower 50's prior to the cold frontal passage.

Precip related to the cold front should be east of our CWA by sunset. Surface high pressure continues building from the west tonight through Thursday. Aloft, cyclonic westerly flow and embedded shortwave disturbances reside over our region. The stabilizing surface ridge will provide fair weather for most locales. However, a WNW to NW mean low-level flow amidst CAA and the southeastward passage of a secondary surface trough should contribute to the development of light lake-enhanced showers this evening and overnight tonight. These showers should target areas in and near the snowbelt. Showers should begin as rain and then change to snow by midnight as the atmospheric column cools. The light precip should end around daybreak Thursday as already weak lake-induced CAPE wanes via low-level dry air advection and a lowering subsidence inversion. Any snow accumulations should be less than a half inch. Tonight's lows should reach the 20's. Thursday's highs should only reach the 30's as low-level CAA continues.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will build northeast through the region Thursday night, becoming centered over the Mid Atlantic region Friday. A negatively tilted shortwave will lift northeast through the Great Lakes late Friday night through Saturday, with WAA/isentropic ascent ramping up through the area. The attendant occluded front will lift northeast through the area late Saturday with high pressure quickly building east across the area Saturday night.

Precip chances will increase through the area Friday night, peaking during the day Saturday. Precip may start out as mainly snow, eventually transitioning to a mix then mainly rain during the day Saturday. Have increase pops a bit to high chance, and if trends hold likely or higher pops may be needed for a portion of the area during this time. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 40s to low 40s across the area. Highs will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s across the area Saturday. Overall, precipitation amounts look to be on the lighter side, with generally less than a tenth of an inch, and perhaps some areas up to two tenths of an inch. Will need to watch trends for potentially increasing QPF, which may begin to elevate the flooding risk across the area with the melting snowpack, although widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Another warmer day is anticipated across the region Sunday as high pressure builds east of the region and low pressure moves northeast just south of the Ohio River valley. This may bring some rain to the area but right now only carrying slight chance pops for the local area. Model solutions diverge a bit Monday into Tuesday with continued lower confidence in specifics, but it looks like a cold front will push southeast across the area sometime Monday, followed by a colder arctic front Monday night into Tuesday as a mid level trough digs southeast into the eastern Great Lakes to New England. Some models are hinting at a more drier period with the initial frontal passage with moisture transport being shunted south of the Ohio River valley, with some lake effect precip chances behind the arctic front Tuesday. Have opted for some slight chance pops for the area, with some low chance pops for favored lake effect areas Monday into Tuesday. Sunday should see another day of highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Monday and Tuesday will see high temperatures back to near or slightly below normals, with currently mid 30s to low 40s forecast. Tuesday may end up being colder if some of the coldest model solutions verify.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/. A low moves east-northeastward from central Lake Michigan to the Canadian Maritimes through 12Z/Thurs. The trailing cold front sweeps eastward through our region between about 19Z/Wed and 00Z/Thurs. Behind the front, a surface high pressure ridge builds eastward. However, a subtle surface trough may ripple southeastward through our region between about 01Z and 07Z/Thurs.

Ahead of the cold front, surface winds veer from southerly to southwesterly. Behind the front, surface winds veer further to westerly and then to northwesterly. Winds trend about 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots are expected at times, especially late this morning through early evening. Of note, southerly surface winds combined with a southwesterly jet of about 50 knots at 925 mb will likely cause LLWS to propagate eastward through early afternoon. LLWS should last for several hours at any given terminal.

Primarily VFR prevail ahead of the front. Scattered rain showers with borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon and early evening, especially east of I-71. Extensive MVFR ceilings likely develop behind the front. After 00Z/Thurs, a mix of lake-enhanced rain and snow showers should impact the snowbelt and vicinity in northeast OH and northwest PA. This includes KERI, KCLE, and KYNG. Visibility should be no lower than MVFR in these showers.

Outlook . Non-VFR possible with periods of rain and/or snow this Friday night through weekend.

MARINE. Southwesterly winds will increase today as low pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes, bringing a cold front across the lake. Winds will increase to as high as 20-30 kts across the lake this afternoon before subsiding tonight. Areas of the nearshore waters that are not ice covered will experience waves of 3 to 6 feet. Lighter northwest winds tonight will slowly back westerly then southwesterly Thursday as high pressure builds across the lake. With this shift in wind direction, some of the ice along the northern shoreline of Lake Erie and in the open waters will likely shift back towards the southern shoreline. Due to these expected conditions on Lake Erie, a Marine Weather Statement has been issued for all nearshore zones, remaining in effect until 9Z Thursday.

After a weak trough passes across the lake Thursday night, high pressure will reestablish over the lake Friday and Friday night with lighter, variable winds. Winds will increase out of the south late Friday night into Saturday ahead of a cold front, which will move across the lake Saturday with winds becoming southwest Saturday afternoon/night. After brief high pressure returns to the lake late Saturday night into Sunday, low pressure will move southeast towards the lake later Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OH . None. PA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . Jaszka NEAR TERM . KEC/Jaszka SHORT TERM . Greenawalt LONG TERM . Greenawalt AVIATION . Jaszka MARINE . Campbell/Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 25 mi53 min SSW 21 G 27 56°F 33°F1003.9 hPa34°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 28 mi53 min SSW 12 G 19 54°F 37°F1005.5 hPa30°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 38 mi101 min S 9.9 G 20
LORO1 42 mi41 min SW 26 G 34 52°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH27 mi26 minSW 15 G 2820.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F32°F44%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCGF

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW12W20
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2 days ago--SE12SE10S8SE9S9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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