Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lincolnwood, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:40PM Sunday September 27, 2020 12:24 PM CDT (17:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 2:12AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202009272130;;444074 Fzus53 Klot 271401 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 901 Am Cdt Sun Sep 27 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-272130- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 901 Am Cdt Sun Sep 27 2020
Rest of today..West winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 10 to 20 kt late. Slight chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 2 ft late.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lincolnwood, IL
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location: 41.95, -87.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 271201 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 701 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2020

SHORT TERM. 340 AM CDT

Through Monday .

Main questions for the near term involve temperature and precipitation trends with an approaching frontal passage today. Have continued to slow down arrival of precipitation with this system despite the surface boundary working its way into far northwest IL by daybreak. Presently the parent surface low sits north of the central Great Lakes and sfc obs show the front approaching the Dubuque area. There are some very light radar returns trailing this boundary where dewpoint depressions are not quite as pronounced, but generally the dry lower levels and diffuse nature of the surface boundary are expected to limit precip development along the front itself. Instead, development is expected to be tied more to midlevel fgen forcing where moisture is more plentiful and upper level support also is greater.

If these trends hold, local precip chances would increase toward the RFD area by early afternoon with likely POPs by late afternoon. In the Chicago suburbs chance POPs would increase by late afternoon and likely POPs would overspread the area by early evening. This timing would also describe the expected temperature trends, falling from the 70s into the 60s as rainfall chances increase.

Behind the front, temperatures Monday look to top out in the low to mid 60s with breezy northwest winds. Lower rain chances hang out through the day under the deep upper trough swinging through but any showers that do develop would likely be spotty in nature and not expected to contribute to significant additional accumulation.

Lenning

LONG TERM. 340 AM CDT

Monday night through Saturday .

The big story later this week will be the shot of unseasonably chilly air for early October behind a strong cold front passage. This could set the stage for the frost and possibly even near/below freezing temperatures outside of Chicago to close out the week. Prior to this frontal passage, we'll have a fair but seasonably cool day on Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 60s after a cool start to the day. Forecast soundings suggest we should develop fair weather Cumulus/strato-Cu in the afternoon as lapse rates steepen. Warm advection ahead of the front on Wednesday will lead to the mildest temps of the work week, with highs in the mid to upper 60s, if not warmer (near to a bit above 70), especially with southward extent and/or the frontal passage is slow enough.

In the wake of the cold front on Wednesday a much stronger push of chilly air will work in over the area for the later half of the week as a large upper trough digs over the area. This looks to result in breezy conditions, especially on Thursday, with daytime highs in the 50s for Thursday through Saturday. There will also be a good chance for showers on Thursday, and lake effect showers may continue into Friday for areas near the lake in parts of northwest Indiana as northwest/NNW winds set up over the lake. In fact, with such a chilly air mass aloft (850 mb temps below 0C) moving over the still mild lake, impressive lake induced instability, in addition to the lake effect rain shower generation, could be supportive of waterspouts. Exact low level wind orientation will determine whether parts of our northwest Indiana counties or points farther east are more favored. Expect overnight lows outside the city to drop into the 30s in this pattern late in the week. Timeframe of highest concern for temperatures near to even below freezing for possible sensitive vegetation impacts would be late Friday night into Saturday morning. This will depend on cloud cover, though it does appear a surface high will be over the region, bringing light winds otherwise favorable for strong radiational cooling. While there's plenty of uncertainty this far out, some of the guidance for next weekend indicates a short-wave trough and associated surface low could bring a chilly rain to the area later Saturday/Saturday evening if not Sunday, which is just beyond day 7 in the current long term forecast period.

Castro/KJB

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs . 700 AM CDT

The concerns include: * Chance for a period of MVFR CIGs this morning * Wind shift to northwest/north-northwest this afternoon with gusts to around 20 kt * Rain developing late afternoon into evening with periods of moderate rain possible/likely * MVFR CIGs/BR likely during the rain, especially late evening- Monday morning, with IFR CIGs probable late Sunday night/early Monday and MVFR to IFR VSBY

Winds will shift to west and then northwest with a cold front today. There's concern that direction could get close to due north for a period late afternoon/early evening closer to the lake, including ORD and MDW. In addition, gusts should be up to about 20 kt, possibly higher at GYY being downwind of the lake. Winds should then shift back to west or even southwest in the evening or overnight, especially away from the lake.

Stratus is less extensive to the south/southeast than it was yesterday morning. However, have seen some develop into eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana. Opted for TEMPO mention at GYY, but confidence was too low for ORD and MDW, so will need to monitor observations. Rain will eventually develop behind the frontal passage today. Trends continue to suggest that the rain will start a later than previous forecasts, although some spotty showers are possible out ahead of the front. Kept similar onset time to the previous TAFs, late afternoon at RFD and this evening for the Chicago terminals. Forecast soundings suggest that the rain could come down at a moderate clip at times, causing MVFR VSBY along with BR. CIGs will start out at VFR but should gradually deteriorate, though timing of deterioration to MVFR is uncertain along with whether CIGs will be prevailing. As the rain gradually lightens up after midnight/early Monday, CIGs could lower to prevailing low MVFR with a period of IFR probable along with MVFR/IFR BR. The light rain should eventually end some time Monday morning, followed by isolated to widely scattered showers Monday afternoon, beyond current ORD/MDW TAF.

Castro

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . IN nearshore waters until 9 AM Sunday.

Small Craft Advisory . LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745 . 7 PM Sunday to 4 AM Monday.

Small Craft Advisory . IL nearshore waters until 7 AM Sunday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 2 mi84 min WNW 6 74°F
OKSI2 3 mi84 min Calm G 1.9 74°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 4 mi34 min SSW 8 G 8.9 72°F 64°F
CNII2 7 mi24 min SW 5.1 G 11 73°F 58°F
45174 13 mi34 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 64°F 53°F1 ft1006.1 hPa58°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 16 mi54 min SW 5.1 G 8 74°F 1006.7 hPa63°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 30 mi94 min W 5.1 G 6
45187 38 mi24 min S 3.9 G 5.8 58°F 50°F1 ft
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 41 mi34 min W 8 G 8.9 69°F 62°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 45 mi24 min SE 4.1 G 6 69°F 1006.4 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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S12
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G12
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S1
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G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL13 mi31 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F59°F60%1005.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL14 mi33 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast73°F60°F64%1006.3 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi32 minVar 310.00 miFair73°F62°F69%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMDW

Wind History from MDW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15
G25
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G27
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G25
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G24
SW13SW11
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SW14SW11SW10SW8SW10SW9W9W6Calm
1 day agoS11
G18
S11
G22
S13S11
G19
S12S10S6S8S7S7S9SW9SW9SW8SW7SW10S10S9S8S11SW13SW13
G21
S11S12
2 days agoSW12
G16
SW9
G19
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W11
G17
SW6S8
G16
SW6SW5S5S5S6S4S5SW6SW5SW6S5SW4SW4SW5SW35S7S9
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.