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LEZ149 Expires:202312012115;;714612 Fzus51 Kcle 011458 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 958 am est Fri dec 1 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>149-012115- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh-geneva-on-the- lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 958 am est Fri dec 1 2023
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday.
the water temperature off toledo is 44 degrees, off cleveland 45 degrees, and off erie 43 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 020014 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 714 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move northeast across the lower Great Lakes tonight and Saturday. This will be followed by another weak area of low pressure following a similar path on Sunday. A ridge will build into the Ohio Valley on Monday before a stronger trough crosses the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
6:30 PM Update...

The surface low remains centered over central Illinois this evening and will lift NE across western and central Lake Erie late tonight and Saturday morning while gradually filling. This will keep the area in the mid-level dry slot this evening through tonight, but abundant saturation in the low-levels and the wet ground will support areas of drizzle and fog. This is starting to develop in western and central Ohio and will expand gradually NE early tonight. It will take the longest for the drizzle and areas of fog to reach far NE Ohio and NW PA due to the light SE downslope winds, but it should develop in these areas too after 03Z as winds veer more S to SW. Kept drizzle and fog in the forecast grids areawide overnight since it is only a matter of time.

Original Discussion...

Low pressure is located over Illinois this afternoon with a stationary front extending northeast towards Lake Erie. Rain that has been ongoing today will become more confined to northwest Ohio overnight as deep layer dry air expands to the northeast. Low levels below 750mb will remain nearly saturated overnight and drizzle will be possible with light isentropic ascent continuing through at least midnight. Ceilings have been trending down below 1000 feet and patches of fog and reduced visibilities are also likely. Temperatures may climb a few degrees overnight as southerly flow continues in advance of the low with warm advection. Visibilities will tend to improve late tonight into Saturday morning as the low passes to the north and surface winds veer to southwesterly and start to increase with a little better mixing. Best chances of rain on Saturday will be in the east with gradual drying from the west. A stratus deck will be socked in beneath a strengthening inversion. Despite that, temperatures will start the day off mild with cold advection mainly confined to far NW Ohio.

An upper level trough over the Plains will lift towards the Great Lakes Region on Saturday night. Weak low pressure will track northeast up the Appalachians but the bulk of the precipitation across our area will hold off until the negatively tilted upper trough draws closer. Did raise low temperatures slightly as the stratus is likely to still be in place with forecast lows in the lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
An upper level trough dipping south towards the Ohio River Valley will continue to support a surface low near the IL/IN border. This low will move a warm front north across the area on Sunday. This will allow a more moist airmass to push north over the area at the same time as a LLJ and strong upper level divergence also push into the area. As a result, widespread rain showers are expected for much of Sunday with highs climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s. Late Sunday, an associated cold front will push east across the area as the parent low exits east of the area. A few snow flakes may mix in with any remaining showers, although the bulk of precipitation should be isolated to the eastern counties by Sunday night.
Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 30s. On Monday, an upper level trough will linger over the area resulting in a sustained westerly winds which will create an ideal fetch across Lake Erie for lake enhancement of precipitation to occur. With ideal lift, colder 850mb temperatures near -5C and the long fetch, have opted to continue the increased PoP chance for NE OH and NW PA. With highs on Monday expected to be in the low 40s, expect any additional lake enhanced precipitation to be primarily rain, although a few snowflakes may mix in in the higher elevations. Brief ridging builds in for Tuesday night, providing a chance of a lull in precipitation with lows dropping into the low 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
For the start of the long term period, another upper-level trough is expected to dive south across the Great Lakes region, supporting another surface low near Wisconsin. This low is expected to track east across the lower Great Lakes, bringing another period of widespread rainfall to the area with temperatures remaining in the upper 30 to low 40s. An associated cold front will move east across the area Tuesday night as the low exits to the east by Wednesday.
There is a chance for some snow to mix in behind the front as a CAA regime pushes in, however no accumulation is expected as temperatures linger in the low 30s. Overall rainfall should quickly diminish on Wednesday as much drier air pushes which will persist into Thursday. Uncertainty remains on the extent of precipitation on Thursday as a low pressure moves east north of the region. Exact timing and location of this low is going to be important in if precipitation falls in the area or not, but for now went with showers across the northeast portion of the CWA, but overall trend continues to go down with this update. As a ridge pushes into the area, conditions should again dry on Friday, but confidence is low at this point with models diverging in agreement with handling the various timing of the systems. Highs by the end of the period will be slightly above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
Low clouds and areas of drizzle and fog will keep all terminals primarily IFR this evening through the overnight. The farther NE terminals of KCLE, KYNG, and KERI have taken longer for the drizzle to develop due to some downsloping, but it will occur there by 03Z as the winds veer more to the S and SW. Periods of LIFR will occur overnight too, but this is least confident at KCLE and KERI, so kept those TAFs just IFR for now while the others all see a few hours of LIFR. As the low crosses Lake Erie Saturday morning, the drizzle will gradually end allowing visibilities to slowly improve, but IFR cigs will linger through the day. Trended cigs lower for Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon compared to the previous forecast based on pattern recognition.

Light S winds this evening will gradually veer S to SW overnight then W to NW Saturday as a weak cold front crosses the region.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected through Tuesday in low ceilings and/or periodic rain showers.

MARINE
A low pressure over southern Illinois continues to extend a stationary boundary east just north of Lake Erie allowing for south- southeast winds of 5-10 knots to persist this afternoon. By Saturday morning, the aforementioned low will track northeast across Lake Erie, resulting in winds becoming variable at 5-10 knots through Saturday morning. Behind the low, winds will Saturday night will become sustained from the north at 5-10 knots. A similar pattern will repeat itself on Sunday as another low tracks east across the lake. The main difference with this one is that behind the departing low, winds will be sustained at 15-25 knots from the west Sunday night into Monday which will be a period to keep an eye for a potential marine headline. This same pattern with the low tracking across the area occurs again for mid week, but winds shifting around the low should remain 5-10 knots. On Thursday, high pressure noses north towards the area, allowing winds to become sustained from the southwest at 10-15 knots, although confidence this far out is low as models are diverging in agreement with the strength and timing of the high by late next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

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