Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Girard, PA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
930 PM...
Recent radar and surface observations reveal a warm front just to the south and southwest of the area, with broad isentropic ascent along and warm front beginning to aid in the development of isolated convection across the Lower Ohio Valley. Anticipate coverage to increase overnight as better low and mid-level flow arrive from the west. Elevated shower and thunderstorm chances should begin to increase along the I-75 corridor across Northwest Ohio by around 2 to 3 AM. Updated model guidance continues to trickle in this evening, and chances for strong to severe storms do appear to be increasing slightly for Monday afternoon, particularly east of the I-77 corridor.

Previous Discussion...
Dry weather will prevail for the first several hours of the near term period as high pressure drifts northeast of the area.
However, rain chances will return near or shortly after midnight tonight as a warm front lifts north into the region in response to a surface low tracking northeast into the Upper Midwest.
Isentropic lift ahead of the warm front will result in scattered showers late tonight into early Monday morning, although there's some uncertainty in available moisture and the resulting precipitation coverage. Have generally capped PoPs with the initial round of rain at chance, but could see a scenario where PoPs are increased in subsequent updates if CAMs align a bit better with precip placement. A few thunderstorms are possible given a little bit of elevated instability. There may be some scattered showers or perhaps a period of dry weather in the warm sector, however a second round of showers (and possibly embedded thunderstorms) will arrive as a cold front moves east into the area starting mid to late morning Monday. Precipitation should be much more widespread during this second round and have progressive categorical PoPs through late afternoon/early evening Monday. PoPs will decrease rather quickly Monday evening into Monday night and dry weather is anticipated areawide by 06Z/2 AM Tuesday.

Despite a robust wind field, CAPE/lapse rates will be meager and there will be quite a bit of cloud cover so the severe weather risk will be relatively limited. However, showers and any storms could bring down some gusty winds. Either way, it will be quite windy during the daylight hours Monday with widespread southwest gusts to 35 to 40 mph expected. Isolated and periodic gusts to 45 mph are possible, best chance with downsloping in Erie County, PA Monday morning and across NW OH during peak diurnal mixing. As of now, there is a bit too much uncertainty in the depth/overall amounts of mixing to warrant the issuance of Wind Advisories, but will need to continue to monitor the situation closely; headlines may be issued in future updates.

Most of the area will experience warm air advection and lows in the 50s tonight, but the northern fringes of the CWA may remain in the mid to upper 40s. High temps will be unseasonably warm in the lower 70s Monday with lows falling into the mid to upper 40s for Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will build east across the local area leading to mainly dry weather through the short term period. Have some low PoPs across Northwest OH on Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across the region. However, the best forcing for rain remains north of the local area. Cooler on Tuesday as forecast highs for most sites will be in the mid 60s. Upper 50s to lower 60s are forecast across Northwest Pennsylvania and along the lakeshore. Overnight lows dip into the mid 40s with upper 30s possible across eastern Northwest Pennsylvania. Warmer by Wednesday as highs rise into the mid 70s, upper 60s across Northwest Pennsylvania. Lows on Wednesday night will settle in the upper 40s to lower 50s with cloud cover increasing overnight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
More unsettled weather returns through the long term as high pressure exits to the east on Thursday while low pressure approaches from the west. Thursday should largely stay dry as the best forcing remains west of the local area until late Thursday. PoPs increase from the southwest on Thursday evening as the aforementioned low pressure system lifts north across the Upper Midwest through Friday morning. Precipitation will persist through Friday night as the low moves a cold front eastward. Canadian high pressure will enter from the north allowing for improving conditions on Saturday and dry weather by Sunday. Thursday and Friday will be warmer with highs in the mid 70s. Colder with highs dropping into the 60s by the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
VFR across the TAF sites this evening, with periods of non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Monday morning and afternoon. For the most part, prevailing conditions favor VFR through the TAF period, though we'll be focusing on two opportunities for brief falls to MVFR and IFR vsbys and/or ceilings. The first opportunity will be along a warm front Monday morning, where elevated thunderstorms are possible.
Confidence is lower on coverage and vsby impacts with the morning round so opted for prob30 groups at this time. The second round will be along and just ahead of a cold front late Monday morning and afternoon. Confidence is higher on timing and vsby impacts, so opted for tempo IFR groups. Thunder chances should be higher further east where larger values of instability are favored. Thus, went IFR -shra across the western TAF sites, transitioning to IFR -tsra out east.

Winds are generally out of the east to northeast this evening, around 10 knots. A strong south to southwest low-level jet of 35 to 45 knots will arrive overnight, introducing a brief window for mainly directional low-level wind shear at all TAF sites.
Surface winds will eventually shift towards the south and southwest by mid-Monday morning which should end the LLWS threat. As winds shift towards the southwest behind the cold front late Monday morning and afternoon, winds will increase to near 20 knots with periodic gusts of 30 to 35 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

MARINE
High pressure builds east tonight as a warm front lifts north of the lake Monday morning. Easterly winds this afternoon and late evening will briefly touch small craft criteria so opted to hoist a Small Craft Advisory for the western and central basins of the lake through 06Z/Mon. There will be a brief lull in elevated winds late tonight ahead of the warm front before southerly winds increase to 20+ knots by Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed in southerly to southwesterly winds with the warm front. A cold front will move east across the lake Monday night allowing for 15 to 20 knot winds to shift westerly. Elevated westerly winds will diminish through the day on Tuesday as high pressure builds over the lake. Winds flip and turn easterly by Wednesday as the high builds east but will remain at or below 10 knots. Southerly flow 10-15 knots returns by Friday as another system moves across the great lakes region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142>146.