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Marine Weather and Tides Province, MA Version 3.4

NOTICE 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:16AM

Sunset 5:30PM

Saturday February 27, 2021 4:32 PM EST (21:32 UTC)

Moonrise 6:57PM

Moonset 7:52AM

Illumination 99%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Province, MA

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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA

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FXUS61 KBOX 272046 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 346 PM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Rain will come to an end this afternoon as low pressure lifts through, though some drizzle may persist into the evening. Brief reprieve as high pressure builds in tonight. Rain returns Sunday into Monday, especially near the South Coast, as low pressure passes southeast of New England. A strong cold front brings a period of scattered snow showers Monday night, along with gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into Tuesday. Temperatures rebound back to near to above normal for mid to late in the week before a cooldown into the weekend. Mainly dry weather for the rest of the workweek, though turning unsettled by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/.

Temperatures have risen well into the mid 40s across much of the region, with upper 30s in the higher elevations. As such, precipitation continues to fall as rain. The back edge of the precip shield has moved a bit faster than previously thought, already into western Worcester county/exiting Hartford county at 230 PM. The steady rain will continue until the back edge of precipitation arrives, around 2-4 PM for western MA/CT and 5-7 PM for eastern MA/RI. However, while model soundings indicate moisture quickly exiting above 900 mb (bringing an end to the steady rain) the lowest 2,000 ft remain saturated for several more hours. This will lead to some drizzle continuing into the evening along with some dense fog and low clouds. The column dries out more overnight as the shortwaves lifts northeast and moderate mid level ridging builds in. It will be short lived, however, as clouds fill back in by Sunday morning ahead of the next disturbance. Low temps will be several degrees warmer than the night previous, in the upper 20s (high elevations) to upper 30s (coastal plain).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/.

The main adjustment with this forecast update was to slow down onset of rain showers on Sunday a bit. A warm front lifts north associated with the surface low moving out of the Great Lakes into Canada. This will keep temperatures quite mild during the day and allow it to be an all rain event. Rain arrives by early to mid afternoon, spreading northeast by late afternoon. Along with warm air advection we have dynamic support from a 30-35 kt low level jet which moves overhead on the time timeline. A secondary low forms along the frontal boundary near or just south of southern New England late Sunday into Monday which will focus better forcing along the south coast or offshore, so expecting the highest rainfall totals along the south coast with lesser amounts toward northern New England. Cold front doesn't come through until later in the day on Monday, so low temperatures overnight will be limited by very mild dewpoints . we should remain above freezing everywhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Highlights .

* Arctic front brings a period of brief snow bursts/snow squalls Mon night, gusty NW winds and well below normal temps Mon night into Tues. Gale-force gusts and freezing spray likely on the waters.

* Temperatures rebound back into the 40s Wed into Thurs.

* Turning cooler Fri into the weekend.

Details:

Monday:

Lingering showers along a cold front, mainly for SE MA into RI and our southern waters, should be clearing into the offshore waters by the early afternoon. NW winds and drier conditions should ensue for the afternoon, preceding a strong Arctic front for Monday night (see below). Highs mainly in the 40s, with a few lower 50s across eastern RI and SE MA/Cape and Islands.

Monday Night into Tuesday:

**Arctic Frontal Snow Bursts/Squalls Possible Mon Nite** **Gusty NW Winds brings low wind chills Mon Nite, Cold Tuesday**

Mon night into Tues looks to be the most active in this long-term forecast period. A lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex traverses SE through New England Mon night into Tues, with its Arctic surface cold front moving through mainly during the evening and overnight hrs. Though it is brief, it ushers in a significant shot of cold air (about -35 to -38C at 500 mb, -16 to -20C @ 925 mb). This should bring a period of isolated to scattered snow bursts/snow squalls Monday night, increasingly gusty winds overnight into Tues, and well- below normal temperatures for early March Mon night into Tues.

1/ Arctic Front and Isolated Snow Showers/Squalls

Arctic front looks to progress through SNE mainly during the post-PM commute period into the overnight (00-06z). Most models depict some very limited QPF (a few hundredths at best) with the frontal passage. Fairly robust signals for convective snow bursts and possible snow squalls centered in this timeframe, including NAM- based snow squall parameter values in excess of 2 units, owing to nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates given strong CAA. The depiction of a strong isallobaric rise/fall couplet and CAPE values around 50 J/kg or so supports this risk, as does the strong background dynamics associated with the TPV. The shallow instability/CAPE in a saturated dendrite growth region would support brief but locally intense snow showers. Though brief low-visibility snow showers/squalls are possible, with up to an inch of new snow falling in a short period of time, given the timing more into the late evening hours and less vehicle traffic it's questionable if we'll really see any impact from these. Have carried 20-25 PoPs for isolated/scattered snow showers.

2/ Gusty Winds

Strong cold advection should begin to steepen lapse rates and promote good mixing even into the overnight hours. Model soundings even during the overnight suggest mixing potentially as deep as 800 mb! Momentum transfer suggests winds at the top of the mixed layer may support wind headlines. Not yet confident to hoist any wind advisories as yet but may need to be considered later. However think its main effect would be to produce low wind chills for overnight/early Tues AM (5 to 10 below in northern/western MA and the terrain, around 0 for the Hartford-Boston metros, and low single digits above SE MA/RI).

Expect winds to become increasingly gusty late in the overnight and continuing into a good part of Tuesday until the pressure gradient starts to slacken. Showed gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range similar to the 90th percentile NBM wind gusts and close to Advisory levels, peaking thru the first half of Tues. Offered a slow decrease in gusts for the afternoon as the gradient slackens and mixed winds diminish. Winds and gusts should diminish even further for the evening.

3/ Temperatures

Sharp cold advection post-frontal should cause temps to plummet into the single numbers to teens above zero - on the milder end of guidance given mixing from winds.

Highs Tuesday in the 20s to low 30s, though the winds/gusts will make it feel like the single digits to the teens, with mid teens wind chills across Cape Cod.

Wednesday into Thursday:

The shot of below normal temperatures is brief with SW return flow resuming on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Under high pressure and mostly clear conditions, highs in the 40s should again be common for much of SNE with lows in the 20s to near freezing.

Friday into the Weekend:

Forecast confidence then diminishes for late week/weekend. There is some indication of a southern-stream trough interacting or potentially becoming in phase with digging northern stream energy over eastern Canada. This could offer coastal storminess into the weekend, but too much uncertainty limits predictability at this point.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

This afternoon . High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in timing

IFR conditions will continue to fall to LIFR as rain falls this afternoon. This is potential for dense fog across the interior where the rain will help erode the snowpack. Winds S to SE at 5-10 kts will turn out of the SW this evening. Only exception is along the coastal plain where as a strong low level jet moves through could have some gusty winds mix down. Expecting gusts of 20-25 kts.

Tonight . High confidence in trends moderate in timing

Conditions improve to VFR from west to east as a high pressure builds in. Some patchy fog is possible across the CT River Valley. Winds will be light out of the W/NW.

Sunday and Sunday night . High confidence

VFR to start with increasing low to mid level clouds during the late afternoon/evening. Should see conditions deteriorating to MVFR and localized IFR as light rain spreads in. Light and variable winds to start shifting to the SE during the afternoon. Rain continues overnight.

KBOS TAF . High confidence in trends, but moderate in timing of MVFR/IFR. Cannot rule out LIFR this afternoon with SE winds.

KBDL TAF . Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40 kt. Isolated SHSN.

Tuesday: VFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday: VFR.

MARINE.

Tonight . High confidence

Winds shifting to the SW/W by this evening as the system exits. Winds shift to the NW overnight. The strong winds diminish tonight as high pressure builds in. Waves 5-9 feet diminish by Sunday morning.

Sunday and Sunday night . High confidence

Light and variable winds during the morning shift to the SE during the afternoon and increasing as the next system moves in. Waves 3-5 feet across the outer and southern waters, increasing 5-7 feet for a time Sunday night.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/ .

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Freezing spray, isolated snow showers. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Freezing spray.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Freezing spray.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tides are astronomically high Monday, with Boston at 11.0 FT MLLW (12:36 PM), Nantucket 3.6 FT MLLW (12:02 PM), and Providence at 5.0 FT MLLW (9:23 AM). Current expectation is for a surge of less than one foot along the south coast, and perhaps around 1 foot along eastern MA coast, which would keep the total water level below the minor flood category for both coasts.

In addition, winds are expected to shift to the W/NW in the morning as a cold front moves offshore, lessening the potential along E MA coast. If front ends up slowing down, it is possible we could see minor splashover (sub-Coastal Flood Advisory level) along both coasts, but that seems to be a worst case scenario right now.

Does not appear to be a prolonged period of strong enough S/SE winds to build up seas offshore more than 4-5 FT, so beach erosion is not expected to be an issue right now either.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ232>234. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ235-237-256. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ250-254-255.

SYNOPSIS . Loconto/BW NEAR TERM . BW SHORT TERM . BW LONG TERM . Belk/Loconto AVIATION . Loconto/BW MARINE . Loconto/BW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA	16 mi	23 min	S 23 G 29	44°F	41°F		1012.6 hPa	43°F
44090	18 mi	37 min			38°F	3 ft
CHTM3	22 mi	45 min	S 16 G 24	46°F	40°F		1014.5 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND	36 mi	23 min	SSW 12 G 18		37°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA	37 mi	48 min	SE 7	46°F			1015 hPa	46°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA	40 mi	23 min	S 9.7 G 14	42°F	39°F		1014.2 hPa	41°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen	46 mi	89 min	S 18 G 21	42°F		6 ft	1013.5 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA	46 mi	45 min		47°F	37°F		1014.5 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA	49 mi	45 min	S 14 G 19	47°F	39°F		1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA

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Last 24hr

SE4 G7

S2 G5

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S5 G8

S3 G6

S4 G8

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SE4 G11

S3 G8

SE5 G9

SE7 G11

SE8 G15

SE11 G15

SE11 G16

SE11 G18

SE13 G17

SE10 G16

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SE11 G19

SE12 G17

1 day ago

W8 G15

W5 G13

W3 G7

W4 G8

W6 G10

NW8 G16

NW9 G17

NW7 G15

NW6 G14

NW9 G12

NW6 G12

NW5 G10

NW5 G10

NW8 G12

NW8 G13

NW6 G14

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NW11 G15

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NW7 G11

N4 G8

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SW6 G9

2 days ago

SW9 G16

SW7 G13

S8 G12

SW8 G12

SW10 G14

SW11 G18

SW8 G14

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SW7 G17

SW8 G19

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W9 G16

W8 G19

NW11 G17

NW11 G20

NW9 G19

NW8 G15

NW10 G14

NW9 G12

NW6 G9

NW10 G14

NW9 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA	8 mi	37 min	S 15 G 24	5.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	46°F	46°F	100%	1014.1 hPa
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA	20 mi	41 min	S 10 G 20	2.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	46°F	44°F	93%	1015.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA	24 mi	37 min	S 13 G 26	2.00 mi	Light Rain Fog/Mist	47°F	46°F	97%	1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPVC

Wind History from PVC (wind in knots)

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NE3

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E6

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S11 G15

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SE9 G17

SE10 G18

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SE12 G18

SE13 G18

SE13 G21

SE13 G20

S18 G29

S15 G24

1 day ago

W12

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W14 G22

W16 G21

NW18 G24

NW15 G21

W13 G20

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NW12 G18

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Calm

2 days ago

SW18 G26

SW14

SW16

SW18 G22

SW17 G23

SW20 G25

SW17 G22

SW17

SW16 G22

SW17 G24

SW13

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W14

W21 G29

W21 G28

NW21 G29

NW21 G27

NW17 G22

NW16 G23

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NW12 G19

W12

W8

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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Lighthouse, SE of, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

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Tide / Current Tables for Provincetown, Massachusetts (2)

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station

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