Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:13PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 10:56 PM EST (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 5:00PMMoonset 7:11AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 917 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of rain.
Sun through Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 917 Pm Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A secondary cold front will cross the waters overnight then be trailed by large high pres building over the waters on Thu. The high will move off the coast on Fri as low pres approaches from the southwest Fri night and moves across the waters on Sat. High pres builds over the waters by Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MA
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location: 42, -70.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 120217 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 917 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS.

A reinforcing cold front will slide in tonight bringing dry, gusty and cold weather tonight. High pressure will bring cold conditions with light winds on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures warm up Saturday, but a developing low across the southeast U.S. will shift up the coast with the potential for periods of heavy rain on Saturday, possibly beginning as a period of light snow across interior Massachusetts late on Friday. Drier and cooler weather returns Sunday into Monday. Another storm may impact the region Monday night into Tuesday with snow or rain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/.

915 PM Update .

The secondary reinforcing cold front was approaching the Berks this evening. This front will sweep across the region over the next few hours. Nothing more than a brief flurry can be expected in the Berks, as the deeper moisture/forcing is well to our north across northern New England. So while the front comes through dry, it will bring some brief 15 to 25 mph wind gusts. This may allow temps to temporarily rise a few degrees where things have currently decoupled. However, it will bring a shot of reinforcing cold air to the region and some spots may decouple again toward daybreak.

Low temps should bottom out in the middle teens to lower 20s by daybreak. If typical coldest outlying locations in western MA decouple again toward morning, they may bottom out near 10 or even in the high single digits.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Thursday .

Mid level ridge slides across the eastern Great Lakes and New England. At the surface high pressure will build into the region bringing mostly sunny skies. This will relax the pressure gradient over the region and should bring an end to the gusty winds early on Thursday. Could see a few gusts up to 30 to 35 mph tonight. It may not be until mid to late in the morning that gusty winds subside over the Cape and Islands. Northwest winds will gradually shift to a southwesterly direction as the day progresses. Warmer air will begin advecting in aloft as winds shift to a southwesterly direction at 850 hPa with temperatures warming to -5 to 0 degrees Celsius. High confidence in the forecast.

Thursday night into early Friday .

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift from the central Great Lakes into southwesterly Quebec overnight. During this same timeframe high pressure will shift off to the northeast into Nova Scotia. The shortwave trough lifting off to the northwest of the region will bring increasing cloudiness. Nudged temperatures toward the 25th percentile of guidance to account for light winds and relatively clear skies. If clouds take longer to enter then am not cold enough, but if clouds move in quicker than currently forecast then temperatures are too cold.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights .

* Temperatures moderate to near seasonal levels on Friday as next weather system brings the potential for heavy rain & localized flooding on Saturday. Flooding risks may be exacerbated by snowmelt.

* Leftover rain/snow showers linger into early Sunday. Strong northwest winds on Sunday, especially in coastal areas with gusts up to 40 kts. Gale headlines might be needed for Sunday over the waters.

* Drying out and seasonably cold on Monday before the next system arrives on Tuesday, giving us another round of snow before mixing with or changing to rain. Confidence is very low this far out. Details .

Friday through Saturday night .

***Heavy Rain and Flood Potential on Saturday***

By Friday morning, the 1040mb high moves east into the Canadian Maritimes. This will allow a potent low pressure system to move north. A southeasterly flow should see high temperatures moderate to the upper 30s to low 40s in the interior and mid to upper 40s near the coast. These values are near seasonal levels for mid December. Friday looks to be mostly dry except for isolated showers for parts of the interior late Friday afternoon. This is ahead of the main system that arrives on Saturday. Enough shallow cold air could linger in interior MA and CT for the precipitation to start off as snow or mixed precipitation. Surface maps also have signatures of cold air drainage from the northeast so there may be a few hours of light snow or mixed precipitation. But as warmer air lifts north, any precipitation should change over to plain rain showers by Friday evening.

By Friday night, the 500mb long wave trough starts digging out of the midwest into the southeast states. This will set up a strong southwest mid level wind flow allowing the deep layer moisture to work into the northeast late Friday into early Saturday morning, with PWATs up to 2-3 standard deviations above normal and pockets of 3-4 standard deviations along the Eastern MA coast. Looking at the guidances from WPC and using model blend, it looks like we can expect between 1 to 1.5 inches of QPF for Western MA and 1.5 to 2 inches of QPF near the coast. There is still some uncertainty with regards to the total QPF, because the ECMWF Ensemble shows a 50% chance of 24-hour QPF exceeding 1 inch. But with the PWAT anomalies being so anomalous and a 60 to 70 kt 850mb jet in the vicinity, I would lean towards the system being an impressive rain maker. While this is a relatively progressive system, heavy rainfall rates at times on Saturday morning and afternoon could lead to localized flooding. With the low level jet kicking in late Fri night, overnight temperatures on Friday will exhibit a non-diurnal trend. There would also be a significant uptick in dew points, with 40s in Western MA/CT and 50s elsewhere. High temperatures on Saturday look to be in the mid to upper 40s across the interior and mid to upper 50s near the coast.

An issue of concern for Saturday is the flooding potential. According to co-op observers' reports this morning, we have about a 6 inch snow depth with just under 2 inches snow water equivalent in Northwest MA. That gives us about 30% snow density, which indicates a ripe snowpack. So the combination of snowmelt runoff and heavy rain may result in localized urban and poor drainage flooding. We will continue to monitor river levels for any rises.

Sunday .

** Strong winds on Sunday **

Low pressure will shift northeast into Maine and the Maritimes by Sunday morning, though there may be scattered showers on Sunday morning. It could be cold enough in the East Slopes of the Berkshires and the Northern Worcester Hills for snow showers but any accumulations would be very light. The main concern on Sunday, however, is the wind. In wake of the departing low, northwest winds increase, possibly gusting up to 25 kts in the interior higher elevations and up to 40 kts over the waters. This is supported by Bufkit soundings show a momentum transfer of 34 kts at the bottom of the boundary layer and 45 kts at the top of the boundary layer in Boston early Sunday afternoon. As a result, we will likely need gale headlines for Sunday.

Next Monday through Wednesday .

** Potential for snow mixing with/changing to rain on Tuesday but low confidence this far out**

Another cold front will sweep across the region by Monday morning, bringing gusty northwest winds and colder air across the region. Expect highs on Monday to be in the 30s and 40s. Another low pressure system looks to impact the area by early Tuesday. With the cold air in place, it should start off as snow before changing to mixed precipitation or rain away from the interior. But since we are still 6 days away, confidence is extremely low in any specific solution. The precipitation comes to an end late Tuesday along with a cold front passage. Wednesday looks dry but with below average high temperatures in the 20s in the interior and 30s near the coast.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Thursday Night/ . High confidence.

00Z TAF Update:

Tonight: VFR. A cold front will result in initial S/SW 4-6 kt winds to become NW and increase with gusts to 18-25 kts starting around 03-06z.

Thursday: VFR under high pressure. NW winds around 7-10 kts with gusts to 20 kts early, though will begin to subside into the late-aftn hrs toward light/variable.

Thursday Night: VFR for the first half of the evening, then beginning to trend to VFR/MVFR late. Leading edge of a warm front then encourages an increasing clouds from the S/SE, perhaps to MVFR levels early Friday morning towards CT/RI into the South Coast/Cape. Winds become ESE/SE, with possible LLWS by daybreak as SWly low-level jet of 35-40 kts brushes areas near/W of ORH.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence. NW gusts 20-25 kts developing after 05z with dry FROPA.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/ .

Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, patchy BR, chance FZRA.

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely, patchy BR.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, patchy BR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

MARINE. Short Term /through Thursday Night/ .

Tonight . A reinforcing cold front will slide through and bring strong mixing over the relatively mild ocean. Westerly wind gusts of 30 to gales of 35 knots will develop over the open waters. Best opportunity for gales is across eastern Massachusetts waters.

Thursday . Wind speeds and gusts diminishing early as high pressure builds in. Winds 10 to 20 knots during the morning with gusts of 15 to 25 knots. During the afternoon speeds decrease to 5 to 15 knots with gusts diminishing to 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night . High pressure shifting to the northeast of the region. Wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots. Speeds increasing after midnight. Gusts increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/ .

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Patchy fog.

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog.

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for ANZ231>234. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for ANZ235-237- 255-256. Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ250-251-254.

SYNOPSIS . BL/Chai NEAR TERM . Frank SHORT TERM . BL LONG TERM . Chai AVIATION . BL/Loconto/Chai MARINE . BL/Loconto/Chai


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 16 mi56 min 45°F2 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi66 min SW 16 G 18 34°F 47°F2 ft1025 hPa (+0.9)26°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 25 mi66 min WSW 16 G 19 35°F 4 ft1025.5 hPa (+1.0)25°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi71 min W 2.9 47°F 1026 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 34 mi62 min 36°F 42°F1026.8 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 36 mi112 min W 18 G 21 35°F 46°F3 ft1023.4 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 37 mi62 min 31°F 41°F1024.9 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 38 mi56 min 18 G 21 43°F1026.8 hPa (+0.9)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi62 min W 15 G 18 34°F 1026.7 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi62 min 34°F 43°F1027 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi62 min 34°F 28°F
PVDR1 47 mi62 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 30°F 1027.1 hPa26°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi62 min WSW 11 G 14 31°F 42°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi62 min NW 7 G 12 31°F 41°F1026.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 49 mi56 min WNW 28 G 32 37°F 1026.8 hPa (-0.0)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 49 mi71 min W 7 30°F 1026 hPa26°F
PRUR1 49 mi62 min 33°F 27°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 49 mi62 min W 6 G 11 31°F 1027.3 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA10 mi61 minWSW 410.00 miFair27°F24°F93%1026.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi64 minWSW 37.00 miFair22°F21°F96%1026.4 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi60 minW 1010.00 miFair31°F26°F82%1026.4 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA24 mi71 minNW 510.00 miFair27°F23°F86%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPYM

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW9NW7NW6NW6NW10
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N7NW5NW6NW6NW5W7W6N6W5W5CalmW5SW4SW5SW3CalmSW3
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------------------SW11
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--

Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:12 AM EST     0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:19 AM EST     10.09 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:10 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:53 PM EST     8.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.35.53.61.80.81.22.84.879109.88.56.54.320.2-0.20.82.64.76.98.59

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM EST     0.13 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 AM EST     4.10 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:10 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:42 AM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:38 AM EST     -4.53 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:46 PM EST     0.20 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:01 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:50 PM EST     4.30 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:15 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-4.1-3.4-1.92.33.64.143.52.5-1.7-3.5-4.4-4.5-3.9-2.71.53.34.14.343.21.6-2.7-4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.