Friday, February21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 5:24PM Friday February 21, 2020 10:51 AM EST (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 4:24PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 716 Am Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of snow showers this morning.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun and Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon and Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue and Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Est Fri Feb 21 2020
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pressure approaches from the west today and then passes south of our waters this weekend. This high will continue to move east and further away from our waters on Mon. A couple waves of low pres will approach form the southwest by Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MA
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location: 42, -70.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 211134 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 634 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will bring dry and chilly weather today. While dry weather persists this weekend, above normal temperatures return Saturday and particularly Sunday when many locations reach the 50s by afternoon. Weather pattern then turns unsettled starting later Monday into a good part of the upcoming workweek. Warm frontal rain showers for Monday into Tuesday nights, with a larger storm system for Wednesday night into Thursday. While uncertainty is large for this second system, recent trends are for a more inland storm track with predominantly rain.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 635 AM Update:

Forecast looks to be in great shape with no changes needed attm.

Quite a chilly start to Friday, with current temperatures in the single numbers to teens. Modest NW winds producing single- digit above to single digit below zero wind chills in the interior. Cold air aloft flowing over the warm ocean waters contributing to stratocu over Cape Cod and the offshore waters; these are still expected to dissipate into the afternoon hrs. Low-level temps start to moderate late in the day, with full sunshine helping to boost temps from current values to highs in the upper 20s to the low-mid 30s.

Previous discussion from 340 AM follows .

Large high pressure building in from the west was resulting in clear skies and very cold temperatures early this morning. The exception was portions of the Cape/Nantucket, where cold northerly low level flow was resulting in some ocean effect clouds. The soundings show the subsidence inversion to be quite low, so nothing more than a brief passing flurry/light snow shower or two this morning. Ocean effect clouds should dissipate during the afternoon as low level flow turns more westerly.

Across the rest of the region, sunny skies are on tap but it will remain chilly. Afternoon highs should reach the lower to middle 30s in most locations with upper 20s in the high terrain. Sunny skies and light winds combined with the increasing February sun angle will take some bite out of the cold this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/. Tonight .

High pressure sliding south of the region will allow for westerly flow/warm advection aloft to commence. However, the dry airmass in place and a weak enough gradient will allow many areas to decouple. This should allow many locations to drop well down into the teens and between 20 and 25 in some urban centers by daybreak.

Saturday .

High pressure to the south will generate westerly flow aloft and at the surface. This combined with much milder 850T than today around -4C, will allow for a nice afternoon recover. Plenty of sunshine should push afternoon high temperatures into the lower 40s across the high terrain with middle to upper 40s elsewhere. Westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are anticipated by the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Highlights .

* Tranquil conditions continue, with dry weather and above-avg temps thru Mon. Low-mid 50s high temps Sunday.

* Unsettled pattern returns late Monday, with mainly rain Mon nite into Tues nite especially for the southern/eastern coastal areas.

* Larger storm system then for late Wed into Thurs. Uncertainty continues on exact storm track and associated impact, though recent trends point to a wetter/western inland track.

Details .

Saturday Night through Monday:

Carrying over from Saturday, a pleasant stretch of weather will continue in this period. High pressure to our south affording a SW component to the winds along with plentiful sunshine and warming low- level temperatures. Good diurnal ranges as well.

Potential for Sunday to overachieve compared to guidance on high temperatures. Given southwest downslope winds, full sun and 850 mb temperatures rising to around +2C on the ECMWF and 925 mb temps around +4C. NBM guidance was indicating upper 40s, which seems too low. Opted for a heavy blend of the ECMWF MOS, which defines the upper end of the temperature guidance. This brings highs upper 40s to mid 50s, with a few upper 50s not out of the question for the interior/coastal plain. Lower 50s near the coasts. For Monday, a bit more mid to high clouds may keep temps closer to mid 40s to lower 50s but still pretty pleasant conditions regardless.

Monday Night into Tuesday Night:

Large-scale pattern across eastern two-thirds of CONUS then undergoes substantial change, with a large trough becoming carved out from the Plains into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Deamplifying lead shortwave trough emanating from the lower-mid MS Valley looks to spread light precip associated with an approaching sfc warm front and parent weak sfc low late Mon night and especially into Tues. This will bring the region's first significant rain event since this past Tuesday.

The 00z/21st NWP suite indicated reasonably good consensus with any showers Mon after-midnight being on the light side with drier low- level air mass serving as a hindrance to steadier precip. Greater rain chances appear to be more focused for Tues. Some uncertainty on how far north precipitation may extend for Tues though. GFS is considerably wetter across a larger part of Southern New England than are the ECMWF and the Canadian GEM; main QPF axis in the international guidance mainly confined to the South Coast and east coast of MA, with much less from the Mass Pike northward. Will focus high likely to Categorical PoP for rain late Tues into early Tues nite for areas south of the Mass Pike, with chance PoPs north of the Pike - essentially following the ECMWF guidance idea. Dryslot aloft comes in later Tuesday night, with steady rains giving way to more intermittent showers or even drizzle.

Lows Monday and Tuesday nights in the mid-upper 30s, with highs mainly in the mid-upper 40s for Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday:

Today's 00z NWP suite continues to indicate low pressure later Wed into Thurs, right on the heels of the Tues system.

While guidance earlier this workweek was indicating coastal low development near the mid-Atlantic Wed, then brushing our eastern coastline late Wed into Thurs, recent deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended further inland. A longwave trough becomes established over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and guidance has trended deeper/more amplified with this feature. In turn, this may draw the cyclone further westward and draw an influx of milder air across at least a part of Southern New England. Verbatim, this would translate to less spatial coverage of wintry weather potential (in the interior N/W of the Pike, mainly rain elsewhere). While trends are coming around to a more milder solution . uncertainty in storm track remains sizable with this system. It still is premature to necessarily write off a greater wintry weather threat, as a number of EC/GEM ensemble members still indicating a coastal low track, but trends aren't favorable for significant wintry weather. Complicated interaction between shortwave troughs aloft rounding the pronounced longwave trough that sets up to our west will significantly dictate what transpires. Will advertise high chance to Likely PoPs given good consistency on at least the precipitation potential in this period.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update:

Today . High confidence.

VFR conditions with mainly clear skies. Could see SCT-BKN MVFR ceilings towards Nantucket and Hyannis but should be predominantly lower end VFR. There may even be a brief passing flurry/light snow shower from these.

N winds of 5 to 10 knots (gusts 15-20 kt in the morning) shift to more of a westerly direction by late afternoon.

Tonight and Saturday . High confidence in VFR conditions. SW winds of 5 to 10 knots tonight becoming west at around 10 knots during the day Sat with some gusts up to 20 knots.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance FZRA, slight chance RA.

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA, chance FZRA.

MARINE. Today . High confidence. Northerly wind gusts into the lower 20 knots over the open waters in the cold air advection pattern this morning diminish and shift to the west later today. This is a result of a ridge of high pressure approaching from the west. No marine headlines in effect for todaY, but some light freezing spray will impact some waters through mid morning.

Tonight and Saturday . High confidence. The ridge axis moves east of the region late tonight into Saturday. This will allow WSW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots to develop very late tonight into Saturday with some seas building to near 5 feet across the outer-waters. Therefore, opted to hoist small craft headlines for our outer- waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/ .

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain likely.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/Loconto NEAR TERM . Frank/Loconto SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . Loconto AVIATION . Frank/Loconto MARINE . Frank/Loconto


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 16 mi51 min 40°F3 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 25 mi61 min NNW 14 G 18 21°F 41°F3 ft1031.3 hPa (+1.5)13°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 25 mi61 min NNE 12 G 16 23°F 3 ft1030.8 hPa (+1.6)10°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi66 min WNW 5.1 24°F 1031 hPa20°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 34 mi57 min 24°F 37°F1031 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 36 mi107 min NE 12 G 18 22°F 40°F3 ft1029.7 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 37 mi57 min 21°F 37°F1031.4 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 38 mi51 min 14 G 18
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi57 min N 11 G 16 25°F 1032 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi57 min 23°F 38°F1032.2 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi57 min 22°F 6°F
PVDR1 47 mi57 min NNW 8.9 G 13 23°F 1032.5 hPa0°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi57 min NNW 12 G 16 23°F 38°F1032.1 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi57 min NNE 7 G 12 22°F 38°F1032.3 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 49 mi51 min N 13 G 16 1031.6 hPa (+1.2)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 49 mi66 min NNE 12 24°F 1032 hPa8°F
PRUR1 49 mi57 min 23°F 3°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 49 mi57 min NNE 8 G 15 23°F 1032.6 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA10 mi76 minNNW 8 G 153.00 miLight Snow23°F15°F74%1031.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi59 minNNW 92.50 miLight Snow21°F12°F71%1031.6 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA18 mi55 minN 96.00 miLight Snow24°F17°F75%1031.4 hPa
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA24 mi56 minNNW 105.00 miLight Snow21°F15°F80%1030.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPYM

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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NW9NW7W4W6W8W8W8W9W8W9NW7W5W3NW3CalmW5W5W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Gurnet Point, Massachusetts
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Gurnet Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:30 AM EST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:46 AM EST     9.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:25 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:14 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:25 PM EST     8.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.34.42.31.11.123.75.989.49.797.65.5310.10.31.53.45.77.68.58.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:46 AM EST     0.18 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:01 AM EST     3.89 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:51 AM EST     -4.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:11 PM EST     0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:37 PM EST     4.28 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:41 PM EST     -0.11 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:22 PM EST     -4.12 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.5-2.41.433.73.93.72.9-0.9-3.3-4.2-4.4-4.1-3.2-1.32.73.74.24.33.82.7-1.8-3.5-4.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.