Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MI

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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN

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FXUS63 KIWX 230528 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1228 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 410 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Lake effect clouds and flurries will persist into this evening before diminishing late tonight into Saturday morning. Some sun is expected on Saturday but it will remain cold with high temperatures in the upper 20s. A weak system will bring a low chance of some light snow on Sunday, but little to no snow accumulation is expected. Looking ahead, the potential exists for a more significant winter storm Monday into Tuesday morning. An axis of heavy snow is possible with this system along with a wintry mix of precipitation for some locations. Confidence remains low on the details regarding the placement of the heaviest precipitation. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter storm for early next week.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 410 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

Lake effect clouds and light snow showers/flurries continue across northern Indiana/southern Lower Michigan this afternoon. Inversion heights are relatively low at around 4k feet and low/mid level moisture is lacking. Water vapor imagery this afternoon indicates local area situated between weak upper short waves with the next upstream short wave dropping southeast out of southwest Wisconsin. Similar low level thermal/moisture profiles and brief increase in forcing with this short wave should support continuation of this light lake effect precip into this evening. A dusting of accumulation is possible north of Highway 6 and especially across southern Lower Michigan.

Low level thermal trough will modify some across southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley tonight but clearing of clouds away from Lake effect and diminishing winds with incoming anticyclone should allow for efficient radiational cooling conditions and low temperatures dropping into the 10 to 15 degree range for low temps.

Backing low level winds with approach of anticyclone should shut off lake effect clouds on Saturday with most areas seeing a good deal of sun. Onset of weak warm advection aloft may temper mixing a bit, which should limit high temps from upper 20s to lower 30s given lingering effects of retreating low level thermal trough.

LONG TERM. (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 410 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

The main focus for the long term period will continue to center on the Monday through early Tuesday time period, with confidence continuing to gradually increase in at least portions of the area receiving an axis of heavy snow and wintry mix. Confidence in more precise details will still need to be fine tuned.

In the meantime for Saturday night/Sunday low level jet will begin to ramp up downstream of southwest CONUS upper trough, with weak induced short wave ridging advecting across the southern Great Lakes. Speed convergence at the nose of this jet coupled with accompanying respectable positive low level theta-e advective forcing should result in increase in precip. Without a good deal of mid and upper level support, extent of precip chances still in question for this period and will continue idea from previous forecast in maintaining just low chance PoPs. Expecting mainly snow with exception of areas south of Highway 24 across northern Indiana where lack of ice nucleation may be an issue and where weak elevated warm layer may develop. This could manifest as very low end potential of some brief freezing drizzle/rain or just light rain. With very marginal sfc temps, expecting little to no impacts for Sunday.

Trends in latest guidance still support potential for a more significant winter storm to impact the area Monday into the early morning hours Tuesday. Broad warm/moist advection will be ongoing Sunday night into first part of Monday with some renewed precip chances from south to north. Precip type issues could arise with warm layer aloft early Monday, but potential does exist that advection may be strong enough across the far south to support mainly just rain. Some question as to how widespread precip shield will be with this advective forcing into mid afternoon given lagging stronger mid/upper level in form of northeast ejecting upper level wave lifting northeast from southern/central Plains.

Ensemble means have been depicting a slow northward drift past few cycles, particularly the GEFS mean, which appears to have come more inline with ECMWF. Have generally bought in on WPC preference to this northward EC ensemble mean solution blended with some deterministic run influence. It appears one of the big factors that will determine where axis of heavier snow sets up is just how quickly the aforementioned upper wave is dampened by confluent mid/upper flow across the southern Great Lakes. Some timing discrepancies persist in guidance likely also arising from how this wave interacts with this confluent flow.

Overall, period of greatest concern appears to be late Monday afternoon into the early overnight hours Monday night with potential of greatest snowfall rates in stronger potential deformation forcing setup. Confidence continues to increase that at least portions of the area will see some heavy snow, but will still need to resolve above details for clearer picture. One item of lower confidence is northward extent of low level warm layer which will also be dependent on how the mid/upper level wave evolves as it tracks across the region. Given potential of some mixed precip issues across southern half of the area, and what should be fairly strong frontogenetic response, axis of heaviest snow may be somewhat narrow in scope. Still alot to resolve with this forecast, but hopefully will get a clearer picture as this disturbance across Pacific coast becomes better sampled over next 24 hours.

It does appear snow should be rather wet in nature with ratios expected to be on the order of 10-13:1, likely tapering lower to the south. Northeast winds are expected to strengthen into the 15 to 25 mph range by Monday evening with some higher gusts possible. Snow should taper overnight Monday night into Tuesday morning although confidence in ending times of accumulating snow is somewhat lower given more quickly dampening, but slower solution offered by EC.

Another system will need to be watched for the Wednesday-early Thursday timeframe. Have utilized blended consensus PoPs although signals may be increasing for higher PoPs this period. No major changes were made post-Tuesday at this time.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1228 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Lake effect stratocu and flurries will persist for a few more hours until winds finally back to more WSW direction and advect much drier air into the area later this morning. Anticipate VFR no later than sunrise and will persist through the end of the period. High clouds increase Saturday night ahead of next system but any impacts will remain safely beyond this forecast period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . Marsili SHORT TERM . Marsili LONG TERM . Marsili AVIATION . AGD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI	7 mi	36 min	NNW 11 G 12	24°F			1025.7 hPa (+0.3)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN	30 mi	36 min	NW 9.9 G 11	22°F				11°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI	30 mi	46 min	9.9 G 14	23°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN	43 mi	56 min	NNW 6 G 7	21°F			1026.4 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI

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NW24

NW23 G28

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NW20 G29

NW18 G22

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NW19 G26

NW17 G26

NW13 G22

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NW16 G21

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NE5 G8

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W15 G19

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W21 G27

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W22 G27

W26 G32

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NW17 G24

NW12 G17

W11 G15

W8 G12

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S20 G26

S19 G23

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SW33 G40

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SW25 G32

SW23 G28

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI	10 mi	43 min	Var 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	23°F	12°F	63%	1026.1 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN	22 mi	42 min	NW 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	22°F	12°F	66%	1026.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)

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NW12 G21

NW7 G21

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N9 G20

NW13 G19

NW10 G20

NW8 G20

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NW12 G20

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NW10 G19

NW12 G21

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SW15 G23

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W15 G27

W16 G23

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NW15 G23

NW9 G21

NW5 G15

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S11 G19

S9 G19

S12 G21

S13 G25

SW14 G23

S13 G20

SW12 G18

SW15 G24

SW18 G30

SW21 G31

W19 G29

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station

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