Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 11:01 PM   Moonset 6:56 AM

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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 346 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through Saturday evening - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Gusts up to 30 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots.a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 49 degrees and at michigan city is 47 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 262341 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 741 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs are much warmer over the coming days with 70s being the norm. 80 degrees will be possible both weekend days.

- Periodic chances for rain and storms are expected between this afternoon and next week with tonight and Monday having the greatest chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

In a decoupling jet scenario with the Pacific jet taking over, an upper low deepens and drifts northeast from the Central Plains to the Northern Plains between this afternoon and Saturday. During this time, the warm front pushes through the area later this afternoon and tonight. Saturation appears fairly quick this afternoon and evening on model time-sections despite Td depressions between 20 and 30F. It is interesting to see much of the omega leaning westward with much of the large ascent and mid level vorticity staying there as well. It isn't until later tonight/early Saturday that the large ascent shifts eastward likely meaning rainfall will be focused westward as well. These leans are noticeable on the PWAT moisture content as well, as to where the maximums lie. Despite the 1 to 3 SDs above normal, it still appears the lack of instability and forcing tonight point to lesser QPF output, which appear to stay less than 0.25 aside from counties west of IN-31 where closer to 0.5" may be more in reach.

For the weekend, it appears there will be an opportunity to tap into effective shear during the morning hours, and with instability available, severe weather is possible. The main threat with that appears to strong winds and perhaps a stray spin up. Hail appears to be a lesser threat given the moist low levels during this time.
Another threat for thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon, but the shear appears to be a little bit more sporadic and there's some question about how much instability might be left over at that point. We do actually get 60 degree dew points into the area during the afternoon and low level temperatures surpass the teens Celsius.
With some mixing, highs will be able to get into the 70s allowing for a warm day. Sunday has some instability around and a weak area of vorticity may be able to tap into it to create some thunderstorms during the morning. But dry air follows allowing for a rain-free afternoon. 70s and perhaps 80 degree highs will be in play for Sunday.

A cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday with some thunderstorms possible. There is some shear to work with, although it appears to diminish by Monday morning. The moisture axis appears to stall out on Monday and may be able to refire in the I-69 corridor on east during the afternoon. Initial model output indicates some shear and instability will be available for showers and storms as well.

Some drying out appears likely for Tuesday morning behind the cold front. The ECMWF shows a dry solution as opposed to GFS/GEM which hold on to some precipitation. Perhaps they are keying into a warm front-like feature that rises north during the afternoon to form showers. Based on its history in these events, will lean towards the ECMWF at least with messaging. More confidence can be had with precipitation occurring in the area later Tuesday night as a shortwave moving through in the flow coincides with a cold front passage. Thunderstorms are also possible with both instability and shear present to be tapped into. It then appears that a break in the unsettled weather can be forecast after a cold front moves through Thursday night. Temperatures in the 70s will still continue through this period with Friday having a good chance to return to cooler temperatures. Once again, NBM probability of 1 inch in 24 hours is below 20 percent in any one period through this unsettled time frame indicating its sporadic nature and that its floor is low as far as QPF is concerned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The initial impulse of moisture has moved into the region bringing light showers across the area. A secondary surge with increased low level jet winds surge in the 05Z-11Z timeframe will bring increased southerly winds with gusts near 25 kts at the surface and another bout of light rain showers and even a few rumbles of thunder will be possible with the weak elevated instability. Will continue to mention the LLWS chances with the low level jet placement over the area. Mainly MVFR cigs are expected through early Saturday morning, with cigs rising to VFR levels after 14z Saturday for KSBN and 15z for KFWA.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ043-046.

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