Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 9:07PM Thursday July 29, 2021 11:18 AM EDT (15:18 UTC) Moonrise 11:23PMMoonset 11:29AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1104 Am Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..North wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Clear. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Friday..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Friday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots backing west after midnight. Partly cloudy through midnight then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature at st. Joseph is 75 degrees and at michigan city is 73 degrees.
LMZ043 Expires:202107292215;;647204 FZUS53 KIWX 291504 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1104 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-292215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MI
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location: 42, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 291041 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 641 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Numerous storms are expected across the area today. A few of these storms may be severe with damaging winds and heavy rain. Cooler and drier air returns Friday.

SHORT TERM. (Today) Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Continuing to watch convection slowly move SE. As previously suspected . upwind propagation into the extreme instability (4000 J/kg MLCAPE fed by 80F dewpoints and EML) over northern IL has kept convection further west with more of a SSE motion. CAM's still struggling immensely to capture this. Do however expect line to clip our western zones with a severe threat during the early morning given well developed cold pool and bowing structure with ample MUCAPE and shear immediately downstream across far northern IL/IN. Damaging winds the primary concern though wouldn't entirely rule out an isolated tornado. Greatest risk is likely in the western portions of severe thunderstorm watch but can't rule out some additional development further east especially in light of hi-res CAM's.

Evolution of well-organized MCS and failure of hi-res CAM's leads to considerable uncertainty later today. It is likely with late arrival/outpacing better instability this MCS will weaken and allow additional convection to fester across our area through the morning. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis shows much less shear south of Chicago as well as more southwesterly 0-2km storm-relative wind so it may be difficult for MCS to maintain severity much past 10-11Z as it surges into central IL Meanwhile. models show EML will be overhead our area through at least early afternoon and mid 70s dewpoints yield up to 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across our SW (assuming it is not wiped out by surging MCS). This will be colocated with about 40 kts of deep- layer shear setting the stage for additional severe weather later today. Best chances would be in our S/SE with less contamination of from morning storms. Current best guess is that additional convective development will occur across our central area through the morning and eventually push south of our zones by late afternoon. This would suggest the highest severe potential for possible second round around midday in our southern zones generally in line with latest SLIGHT SWODY1. Damaging winds would be the primary concern though wouldn't entirely rule out a tornado risk with potential outflow boundaries/decent SRH and relatively low LCL's early. If however MCS maintains good cold pool balance and survives through the late morning diving SSE . it would likely wipe out our chances for additional severe storms later. While currently appearing less likely . this remains a possibility and will need to be watched through the morning.

LONG TERM. (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Forecast thereafter remains incredibly quiet. Anticipate dry conditions by late afternoon continuing through much of Sat. Much cooler and less humid with highs on Fri in the 70s. Weak wave/front brings low chances for precip Sat night with reinforcing shot of cool/dry air for early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning) Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

A QLCS system was moving across northern Indiana at this time. The storms had moved through SBN earlier and were moving across the FWA terminal. Gusty winds are likely with the storm passage along with some MVFR ceilings. The front was farther behind the line and should across the area around midday accompanied by a wind shift to the northwest. Clearing skies will follow later with VFR conditions.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for INZ003.

MI . Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for MIZ077.

OH . NONE. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.



SYNOPSIS . AGD SHORT TERM . AGD LONG TERM . AGD AVIATION . Skipper

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 7 mi28 min N 5.8 G 7.8 75°F 74°F4 ft1013 hPa67°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 7 mi78 min N 7 G 8.9 78°F 1013.2 hPa
45168 29 mi28 min W 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 74°F5 ft1012.5 hPa67°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 30 mi28 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 1012.3 hPa68°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 30 mi38 min 9.9 G 11 75°F
45170 31 mi28 min ENE 3.9 G 7.8 78°F 2 ft71°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi38 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI10 mi25 minVar 310.00 miOvercast77°F67°F71%1012.5 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN22 mi24 minWNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F67°F60%1012.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5NW7W6344NW4CalmW6SE3SW4SW6S3S3S4SW6SW94
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1 day agoS3SW8W10SW7W9
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NW9NW5W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3W8W7
2 days agoNW5N5NW4NW5W7W7W5NW5NW3CalmE3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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