Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stevensville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:24PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:30 PM EDT (00:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:19PMMoonset 4:32AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 332 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..Southwest wind 5 knots veering north in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 knots veering north in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. The water temperature off michigan city is 75 and at st. Joseph is 49 degrees.
LMZ043 Expires:202007050400;;316215 FZUS53 KIWX 041932 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 332 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-046-050400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stevensville, MI
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location: 42, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 042331 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 731 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 729 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

The heat continues through next week, with heat indices ranging from the mid to upper 90s. It will be mostly dry, but there are intermittent chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Friday.

SHORT TERM. (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

The stalled upper vort lobe from SE to NW has coupled with available instability to initiate isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Slow storm motions and PWAT values around 1.5" will allow storms produce locally heavy rainfall. A brief strong wind gust near 40 mph can't be ruled out given precipitation loading of the downdrafts. Convective activity should wain around sunset. This will lead to a dry overnight period as temperatures drop into the mid- 60s.

Similar setup to start off with Sunday morning with the stalled vort lobe still over the area. As the morning progresses, a trough swinging southwards across the Lower Great Lakes will help send the vort lobe south of the area around midday. Models depict a surface theta-e gradient across the SW corner of the CWA during the same timeframe before washing out during the afternoon/evening hours. Some models develop isolated convection once again using this theta-e gradient as a focus, but vary on whether this gradient is sufficiently within our CWA to warrant POPs. As things stand right now, isolated storms can't be entirely removed from the table, but will keep POPs below mentionable with this issuance. High temperatures will also be slightly higher in the lower to mid-90s by the afternoon. Since we are expected to deeply mix, will see a lowering trend of the dewpoints throughout the day which will help keep the heat index near the air temperature.

LONG TERM. (Sunday Night through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Hot and mostly dry conditions persist into Monday as the upper flow becomes more zonal. Despite slightly lower heights aloft, afternoon high temperatures will still be capable of reaching into the low to mid-90s.

Tuesday through Friday continues to hold the best shot at seeing precip chances return as well as hotter high temperatures. These precip chances will be associated with a series of troughs which propagate through the zonal flow. At this time, the timing of these troughs correlates with peak heating, and POPs have been limited mainly to these windows. PWATs are expected to remain above average for this time of year so storms that form will be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Expect timing and location to be refined with future issuances.

Looking at heat concerns, each day from Tuesday into Thursday is expected to be gradually warmer. This results with high temperatures in the lower to mid-90s on Tuesday with mid to upper 90s possible by Thursday. While each day is below criteria for heat headlines individually, the consecutive days of air/heat index values would be enough to warrant a heat headline. Now, what could prevent these warm temperatures from actualizing could be the precip mentioned above. Should the storms occur through peak heating, then temperatures may hold just below the needed threshold to warrant a headline. Will hold off on raising any headlines this issuance given these potential factors and continue to relay concerns via HWO.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening) Issued at 729 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Afternoon storms are again possible on Sunday, but with confidence not high on formation will include a VCSH at SBN only. VFR conditions expected through the period, otherwise, with light winds out of the southeast on Sunday.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . MCD/CM/Roller SHORT TERM . CM LONG TERM . CM AVIATION . Roller

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook . Twitter . and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana www.twitter.com/nwsiwx www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 7 mi31 min NNE 8.9 G 13 78°F 1015.2 hPa (-2.1)
45168 29 mi11 min N 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 78°F1 ft1014.6 hPa69°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 30 mi31 min N 8 G 9.9 76°F
45170 31 mi21 min 7.8 G 12 76°F 77°F2 ft74°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI10 mi38 minN 410.00 miFair82°F71°F69%1014.7 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN22 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair85°F70°F61%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS4S334NW64--E6NE3N4
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4NW4NW5NW553NW66NW64Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmW54NW44NW64N6353

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.