Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nevada, IA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 4:44PM Thursday December 12, 2019 11:45 PM CST (05:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:21PMMoonset 7:52AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nevada, IA
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location: 42.02, -93.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Des Moines, IA
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FXUS63 KDMX 130510 AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

SHORT TERM.

Tonight through Friday Night: Forecast Confidence: Medium

High Impact Weather Highlights:

Expecting a light wintry mix of snow and freezing rain/drizzle to impact portions of central and northern Iowa Friday morning through Friday night. Although snowfall totals will only range from 1-2" and ice accumulations of just a couple hundreth are expected, hazardous travel conditions are possible especially on any untreated roads.

Technical Details:

Initial low pressure system continues to track newd into WI late this afternoon. To the south/east of the low, mild December temps are present with readings in the mid/upper 40s across southern Iowa. However, behind the associated cold front, readings have fallen off into 10s and 20s and NW Iowa. Besides some flurries or snow showers behind cold front, expecting rather benign conditions this evening and into the overnight. Lows will be much colder than last night with readings in the lower teens north to the middle 20s south.

Friday . another upper shortwave trough will move across the Midwest. Increasing SW flow ahead of this system will induce another round of moderate WAA/isentropic lift peaking from mid- morning through afternoon. This combined with moisture advection /specific humidity 3-4 g/kg on 285-290K/ will lead to another round of light precipitation. There is still some uncertainty with exact QPF amounts, with the CAM /HREF/ solutions showing higher values than the global ensemble counterparts. Even the higher /90th percentile/ solutions are only showing around 0.20" and would expect 0.02" to 0.10" to be more common. The bigger challenge is likely to be thermal profiles and resultant p-type. Deep saturation through the ice nucleation layer will likely yield mostly snow with the initiation wave of precipitation although the warm layer aloft tries to push above zero, and PBL temps also approach 0C near and south of US30. Thus, a messy mix of light snow, freezing, rain, sleet, or even rain are possible. As mentioned, only light snow and ice accums are expected, but travel problems could occur. After the initial wave of forcing pushes north and east after 21-00z, model soundings indicate that a fairly deep saturated layer may persist in the lowest 1-2KM. So, a continuation of at least patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle is possible into Friday night.

LONG TERM. /Saturday through Thursday/ Issued at 211 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

Forecast Confidence: Medium

Sfc high pressure is forecast to move across the Midwest on Saturday and Sunday with a predominantly zonal flow aloft. While conditions are expected to be dry, temperatures will once again trend below mid December averages with highs only in the teens and 20s.

Still watching the potential system for Sunday night into Monday night as additional shortwave energy ejects out of the mean longwave trough over the western and central CONUS. The various deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show lee cyclogenesis over the central plains with a sfc low eventually ejecting e/newd. Still quite a bit of uncertainty with the evolution of this system due to timing and phasing differences. At this point, impactful weather is still possible over southern Iowa and south - but will need to watch the evolution over the next few days. Temperatures still look to remain below normal early next week, with some indications of a modest warming trend from mid to late week.

AVIATION. /For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/ Issued at 1110 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2019

It should be dry overnight, but confidence is low with regard to ceilings with quite variable conditions ranging from clear to IFR over short distances. Precip is expected to develop later Friday morning however, initially in the form of light snow but also potentially mixing with drizzle or freezing drizzle by afternoon. MVFR/IFR ceilings will become more widespread over the northern half of IA as well with patchy LIFR not ruled out. Much of the precip should diminish around 00z, but IFR/MVFR stratus will become more widespread and advance southward by evening.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.



SHORT TERM . Fowle LONG TERM . Fowle AVIATION . Small


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ames, Ames Municipal Airport, IA9 mi52 minNNW 68.00 miA Few Clouds17°F12°F84%1018.5 hPa
Ankeny Regional Airport, IA24 mi50 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast21°F19°F93%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAMW

Wind History from AMW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS7S5SE6CalmE3N4N6N9N8N12NE8NE7NE4NE54E5E9E5E5E4E7E5E8E9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Des Moines, IA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Des Moines, IA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.