Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nevada, IA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 349 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Little change in the overall pattern across the Central CONUS today, with afternoon surface analysis depicting the large surface high pressure centered over Michigan, while weak low pressure sits over the Dakotas. Upper level smoke continues to push into the area as the ridge across much of the western and central CONUS translates eastward, though overall impacts remain minimal outside of filtered sunshine. Highs have warmed nicely this afternoon given this sunshine and light south/southeasterly flow, with values in the upper 70s to low 80s. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the day, with temperatures falling into the 50s across the state. Friday overall looks like another quiet day, though an increase in south/southwesterly flow is expected to generally bring even warmer temperatures across much of Iowa, with forecast highs still expected to reach through the 80s. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, a cold front dropping into northwest Iowa by mid to late morning Friday is expected, which will gradually pass through the remainder of the state in the afternoon to evening.
This frontal passage still looks like it will be moving rather slowly, so it should not affect the current forecast high temperatures over central and southern Iowa. Near record values remain possible over much of the state, with cooler conditions north behind the front. Please refer to the Climate section below for more details. Given plenty of dry air overhead, not expected any rainfall to occur, with better moisture generally available further north and east out of the state.

To start the weekend, conditions are generally expected to cool down a bit following the frontal passage, with forecast temperatures Saturday expected in the upper 60s to low 70s north and in the mid 70s to low 80s further south, with dry conditions as a quickly moving area of surface high pressure glides southeast across the region. Changes are on the way however, as a defined trough drops south from the Canadian province into the Upper Midwest, though model guidance largely continues to trend with a slightly further eastward placement of the parent low pressure into the northeastern CONUS. Regardless, the far westward component of the trough overhead will put Iowa within a strong northwest flow regime as a rather tight pressure gradient descends into the area. The cold air advection will gradually lead to much cooler temperatures into early next week, which will be the coolest of the season so far. Breezy winds are expected Sunday, with gusts increasing around 20-30 mph.
Dry conditions with breezy winds, paired with continued curing of fuels may lead to borderline elevated fire weather conditions, so will have to keep an eye on this. Following the departing aforementioned trough, a large area of Canadian High Pressure per guidance is expected to descend across the Central Plains through the early parts of the next work week, which will keep the cooler and drier weather overhead for several days. With generally clear skies and light winds during the nighttime hours early next week, several opportunities for temperatures to fall near to below freezing remain, especially into Tuesday morning. Frost potential remains with these freezing conditions, so will need to continue to watch this. Following these conditions, per long-term model guidance, another swing back to warmer temperatures by midweek is suggested as a weak shortwave lifting into the Dakotas and broader southwesterly flow filling in ahead of this feature brings warmer air back into the region, as highs reach back into the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period with just some high clouds/high level smoke around. Wind shifts remain the main TAF concerns as winds out of the south overnight shift to be out of the southwest by Friday morning prior to a frontal passage which will shift winds to out of the northwest to north gradually through the daytime into evening hours north to south geographically. Will see some breezy winds around the front as gusts reach towards 10 to 20 knots at times.

CLIMATE
Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Unseasonably warm temperatures on Thursday and Friday will approach daily record values for sites across the area. Records are included below for climatological reference.

Thursday, October 10 Daily High Records:

Des Moines: 88F (1962*) Current Forecast: 83F Waterloo: 89F (1928) Current Forecast: 83F Mason City: 87F (1928) Current Forecast: 82F Ottumwa: 89F (1930) Current Forecast: 82F Lamoni: 92F (1931) Current Forecast: 81F

Friday, October 11 Daily High Records:

Des Moines: 86F (1962*) Current Forecast: 86F Waterloo: 90F (1920) Current Forecast: 85F Mason City: 85F (1928*) Current Forecast: 79F Ottumwa: 86F (1962) Current Forecast: 85F Lamoni: 84F (1962*) Current Forecast: 84F

*Record occurred in multiple years

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.