Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Beach, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 152 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Temperatures have surpassed the freezing mark for the first time since January 22nd! Temperatures are currently in the mid 30s for much of the area this afternoon, although changes are ahead as Arctic air intrudes over the next 24-36 hours. An Arctic front is currently draped from the Straights of Mackinac down through central Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. This front is poised to move southeast through our area later this evening. Ahead of that frontal passage, there is a very low confidence but potential for snow squall-esque activity this afternoon.
Convective elements (moisture, instability, etc) are rather limited and the snow squall parameter doesn't even show up for our area on the SPC mesoanalysis page, but did want to highlight this since the HRRR and RAP models do show squalls/bursts of snow developing late this afternoon and evening. Should any heavier bursts of snow develop, lowered visibilities and falling snow may impact the evening commute. Confidence is very low on exact locations, intensity, and impact's, if at all.

What we do have high confidence in is lake effect developing this evening downwind of Lake Michigan and increasingly gusty winds this afternoon/evening. The clipper system that brought snow to the area Friday morning is associated with a deepening surface and attendant upper level low over the Great Lakes. On the backside of this, a tightening pressure gradient will allow for gusty winds to develop.
Even away from areas with lake effect, gusty winds of up to 30-35 mph through early Saturday may result in lowered visibilities from blowing snow. With northerly low-level winds and strong CAA behind the Arctic frontal passage, temperatures plummet and lake effect snow develops for northwest Indiana and southwest Lower Michigan this evening after 00Z lasting into Saturday. With a northerly fetch over the open unfrozen waters of Lake Michigan (and possible Lake Superior connection), the best chances for lake effect will likely be west of US-31. Inversion heights will be decent around 5000 ft and there is good moisture and lift within the DGZ. Some dry air may limit totals though and there are limited theta-e lapse rates as tonight progresses. Nevertheless, hi-res model guidance is continuing to depict lake effect downwind of Lake Michigan with a multi band setup for the primary lake effect snowbelts in Berrien,MI and La Porte, IN counties. Some models have the lake effect extending inland down to our border with IND (White and Cass counties), so it is possible those locations also get in on some lake effect snow showers. Highest amounts by Saturday should be 1-3" closest to Lake Michigan. Have continued to use the WPC QPF guidance, which suggests SLRs up to 20:1.

An upper level ridge builds across the central CONUS over the weekend, which will allow for lake effect to taper off Saturday as subsidence works in. A brief cold snap is expected tonight through Saturday night with strong CAA. Saturday's highs will only be in the teens to low 20s. Did want to note here that there will likely be a sharp gradient in low temperatures across our forecast area both tonight and Saturday night due to lake effect cloud cover. Along Lake Michigan and downwind into NW Indiana, clouds likely persist both nights so temperatures likely drop only into the low to mid teens. However, away from the lake, there will be much more radiational cooling in locations with clear skies so temperatures likely drop significantly. In northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio, lows will likely be in the single digits to near zero both nights.
HRRR shows 30% probabilities along and east of I-69 for sub-zero lows tonight. Winds may remain elevated enough (5-10 mph) to prevent sub-zero lows from occuring. Even if air temperatures do not reach zero or below, wind chills will be as cold as -10 to -15 below zero tonight in areas away from lake effect clouds. Even though there is only medium confidence in low temperatures due to the sharp gradient, confidence is high enough in bitterly cold wind chills to warrant issuing a Cold Weather Advisory for part of the area. A Cold Weather Advisory will be in effect from 1 AM EST to 9 AM EST Saturday for NW Ohio and Hillsdale County, MI. This (and locations further east) are where wind chills are mostly likely to reach Advisory level criteria.

Another clipper system may clip portions of the area early Sunday morning. A wave of snow will pass through Lower Michigan and our far northeast may get a brief 6-ish hour window for snow showers prior to daybreak Sunday. Into next week, a warm up and mid February thaw is on the way! Highs will likely be above freezing area-wide for several days in the early to middle part of next week. Previous forecasts had widespread 40s, however, recent ensemble guidance has slowed this trend. The persistent snowpack of 6-12" across the area (likely higher in some places with Saturday's lake effect) will moderate temperatures. In addition, a warm front will surge into the area Tuesday but there is uncertainty on how far north it will get.
Best chances for highs above 40 will be along and south of US 24; should the warm front make it further north, a run at 50 degrees could be possible in north-central Indiana! We likely won't make a multi-day run of widespread highs in the 40s. There will be increasing chances for precipitation by midweek; with above freezing temperatures during the day and lows in the 20s, precipitation type will be dependent on time of day in which it falls. We could see rain during the day and then a rain/snow mix at night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1258 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Stronger surface pressure rises will build east across northern Indiana this afternoon. Cold advection will also continue to ramp up, but will become more enhanced by this evening as secondary stronger low level cold front drops south. Some deepening of mixed layer this afternoon will support gusts into the 25 to 30 knot range (a few stronger gusts). This cold advection is being accompanied by stronger dry air advection also which should limit duration of additional IFR cigs to the first hour or two of this valid period. A secondary vort max tracking across the Great Lakes region may promote some more scattered snow showers across northern Indiana this afternoon, but given dry air working in above the mixed layer, these will likely be short lived and of scattered coverage. Lake effect snow showers will become dominant this evening and continue into Saturday morning. Additional refinements will be needed with some uncertainty as to how lake effect bands will evolve.
Overall lake parameters do not look overly impressive, but duration of the setup could yield several inches of snow accumulation downwind of lake Michigan.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for MIZ081.
MARINE...None.