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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 234 Pm Cst Sat Dec 2 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of rain this evening, then rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt veering to northwest. Rain in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north 15 to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 kt diminishing to 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 022341 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 641 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 233 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Rain returns late tonight into Sunday. Another round of precipitation arrives late Monday night into Tuesday. Wet snow may mix in at the onset Tuesday morning. Trending warmer and mainly dry then for the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 233 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages:

* Another round of rain is expected late tonight into Sunday.
Rainfall amounts up to near a quarter of an inch possible.

* Overcast skies, patchy fog and seasonable temperatures persist.

Brief subsidence in between shortwaves will allow mainly dry conditions to persist into this evening. Low clouds and patchy fog will remain socked in otherwise with moisture trapped below the associated inversion.

A robust Central Plains shortwave will take on a negative tilt as it moves through locally later tonight into Sunday, with strong pv advection and a powerhouse 170 kt upper jet through the OH Valley supporting periods of rain during this time. This system will also have steep mid level lapse rates and decent moisture to work with which will help enhance the rainfall. Quick movement should keep amounts to near 0.25", heaviest northwest.

LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Key Messages:

* A quick moving system brings chances for rain and snow late Monday night into Tuesday. Light, slushy, snow accumulations will be possible, best chances north of US 30 Tuesday morning.

* Mainly dry Wednesday through Friday with temperatures trending warmer.

Gloomy/cloudy conditions are expected to continue through at least mid week as the region remains locked in moist/cool cyclonic flow. A few lake enhanced showers will likely linger north of US 30 in IN/MI through Sunday night in wake of Sunday's system. Ptype should remain mainly rain, though some wet snow could mix in late Sunday night.

A quick moving, northern stream, hybrid clipper system looks to track through late Monday night into Tuesday with renewed precip chances. Models agree on there being a good overlap of moisture and forcing within the warm advection wing to provide more widespread precip during the morning hours on Tuesday, with at least areas of light precip lingering into the afternoon hours as the associated sfc reflection/trough tracks through with loss of deeper moisture.
Ptype does remain uncertain (rain vs snow) in the morning given very marginal boundary layer temps. A general consensus of 12z guidance does favor areas mainly north of US 30 for a mix with wet snow, or a several hour period of wet snow during this time. Some light slushy accumulation appears possible, though confidence in location/impacts remains on the low side given the marginal thermal profile. Wrap around moisture and some lake contribution will likely keep a few light showers around into Tuesday night otherwise.

A warming trend and a possible permacloud breakup then becomes the wx story for the second half of the week as the flow pattern briefly flattens out.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Significant low level moisture remains trapped across northern Indiana. While currently low end MVFR at KSBN, easterly component flow should allow ceilings to lower into IFR later this evening.
Then, focus is on approach of shortwave, currently extending from southwest Iowas into the Ozarks. As this system lifts east- northeast, expect rain to develop/move into region. Stronger lift tracks through KSBN with moderate rain with at least periods of LIFR likely much of mid/late morning hours. As system merges with another lifting up along Appalachian ridge over eastern Lake Erie Sunday afternoon, increased west-southwest gradient flow may afford some additional mixing for pockets of drizzle. Some improvement to at least low end MVFR possible near end of forecast period, though confidence in timing insufficient for additional change group at this time.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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Northern Indiana, IN,