Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday August 17, 2019 6:34 PM CDT (23:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:14PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201908180315;;792180 Fzus53 Klot 172015 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 315 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-180315- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 315 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft late.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Monday..Northeast winds around 10 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 171929
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
229 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Short term
228 pm cdt
through Sunday...

several forecast challenges concerns this afternoon through Sunday
morning, initially with respect to any additional scattered
shower storm development this afternoon and then more widespread
shower and storm potential overnight into early Sunday morning.

In the near term, focus revolves around another incoming mid-level
wave across eastern iowa this afternoon, which is expected to
gradually shift eastward across northern il through the remainder of
the daylight hours. Despite the atmosphere being considerably worked
over this morning, a CU field is already evident across parts of
eastern ia and northwest il out ahead of the wave in an increasingly
unstable environment, along with some isolated to scattered radar
returns (no lightning as of yet). Given the anticipated arrival of
greater support aloft and some recovery across northeast
il northwest in, will continue the mention of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area this afternoon... Most likely
between 20z and 00z before support strips off to the east and a lull
in activity is expected to become the rule this evening. There
remains a non-zero chance through this afternoon for a stronger
storm or two, mainly capable of producing gusty winds and perhaps
some hail.

However, focus rather quickly shifts to the tonight into early
Sunday time frame as an active pattern is expected to remain in
place. Additional, potentially widespread, showers and storms appear
likely during this time frame as no real change to the overall
pattern and environment is anticipated, with highly active mid-
levels and strong warm air advection supported by a stout llj
expected to be in place across the region. Latest trends continue to
suggest a complex of thunderstorms developing across southern
mn iowa late this evening into the early overnight hours before
tracking eastward toward the CWA toward sunrise Sunday. While
confidence isn't stellar, feel the most likely timing for storms to
track through the region is somewhere between 09-14z, with most
guidance in agreement with this timing. The exception is recent hrrr
runs, which have significantly slowed shower storm chances to after
12z Sunday. There will remain a severe weather threat with these
storms, primarily in the form of strong damaging winds, and to a
lesser extent, large hail. Given lots of deep layer moisture (pwats
progged AOA 1.75 inches), heavy downpours with at least an isolated
flooding risk will also be a concern.

Beyond Sunday morning, would expect some drier conditions to return
for part of the day, although with lingering surface trough boundary
across the region, wouldn't be surprised to see an additional
isolated shower and or storm develop late in the day early evening.

High temperatures Sunday expected to range from the low-upper 80s
across the forecast area with afternoon heat indices near 90
degrees for many areas.

Gillen

Long term
226 pm cdt
Sunday evening through Saturday...

a surface trough will cross the area Sunday evening into Sunday
night. This will lead to lingering chances for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms during the evening, with the
threat decreasing from northwest to southeast into the overnight.

Surface high pressure will move in from the west Monday and depart
Tuesday. The high will bring modestly drier air with it and
somewhat cooler temps for Monday with highs in the lower 80s north
to mid 80s south. Winds shift southerly Tuesday bringing warmer
and more humid back into the area. An upper trough will cross the
area with a weak surface reflection accompanying it. Will need to
see what kind of thunderstorm chances will be present with this,
but guidance seems to be more focused on something tracking more
to the south of the area. Will keep chance pops going Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. A deeper upper low will move across
ontario Wednesday pushing cooler and drier air into the local area
as another surface high builds in, this time from the north.

Guidance is at odds with some of the details with the GFS favoring
slightly active upper flow which suggests subtle chances for
shower thunder development late this week. Will continue with a
dry forecast from Wednesday afternoon into the weekend but
continue to keep an eye on how the pattern evolves.

Mdb

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

for the remainder of the afternoon, forecast concerns will
continue to focus on shra tsra chances and possible cig vis
impacts.

At 18z, a weak short wave is lifting from nern il to SRN lake
michigan. All lightning activity appears to have ended though some
isolated showers could linger near the chicago area terminals
until shortly after issuance time of 18z. To the west, a stronger
short wave is moving over ERN iowa and scattered showers are
developing in the warm advection zone across northwestern
illinois, which has not seen much pcpn this morning. Latest
satellite imagery indicates rapid CU development in this area
while radar data shows the developing showers, initially west of
a line from fep to gbg. As the shortwave quickly advances ewd,
expect renewed pcpn chances with more scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms possible. While the air mass over nern il
has been somewhat worked over by earlier convective activity, the
low level environment will still be warm and unstable, so the
added forcing from the short wave should be sufficient to support
additional showers with isolated thunderstorms. Based on timing
the passage of the short wave, the most favorable location and
timing of thunderstorms will likely be in the 21-23z time frame.

Following the passage of this system, a lull in the activity is
expected for the evening and into the late night hours.

Latest high res model guidance continues to suggest another round
of showers and thunderstorms to impact the terminals for the late
night early morning hours. Another short wave, initially over the
northern plains, is expected to cross the local area late tonight
or early tomorrow morning. Given some timing uncertainty, have
gone with a prob30 tsra for the 09-12z time frame with prevailing
tsra for the 12-15z time frame. Depending on the exact speed of
the short wave, this timing may need to be adjusted. There is
better confidence that activity will settle down quickly following
the passage of this wave and the remainder of the day should be
quiet.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FSTI2 4 mi94 min SSW 5.1 78°F
45174 7 mi34 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 74°F1 ft1008.7 hPa (-1.0)
OKSI2 9 mi94 min E 1.9 G 2.9 80°F
45177 10 mi154 min 76°F1 ft
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi64 min S 6 G 6 76°F 73°F
CNII2 13 mi34 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 77°F 67°F
JAKI2 18 mi94 min SW 6 G 9.9 78°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi46 min S 6 G 8 77°F 1010.9 hPa70°F
45186 24 mi34 min SE 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 74°F1 ft
45187 32 mi34 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 78°F 73°F1 ft
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 39 mi31 min WSW 4.1 G 8 78°F 1011.9 hPa
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi34 min Calm G 2.9 76°F 1011.2 hPa (-0.7)
45170 43 mi74 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 75°F1 ft71°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi44 min SW 8.9 G 12 77°F 69°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi2.7 hrsS 610.00 miA Few Clouds77°F69°F77%1011.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi1.7 hrsS 610.00 miOvercast75°F69°F82%1011.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi2.7 hrsSSW 610.00 miOvercast76°F70°F82%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3SW4W4SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S12E6SE5SE6S6S5S7
1 day agoE5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE8S7S10S12
G19
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2 days agoN11
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N6N6N4N5NW6N5N7N5NW7NW5NW5NW7NW5N6N8N6NE7E7NE8E7NE8NE9NE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.