Wednesday, January29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday January 29, 2020 6:27 AM CST (12:27 UTC) Moonrise 10:48AMMoonset 10:46PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202001291615;;686430 Fzus53 Klot 290908 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 308 Am Cst Wed Jan 29 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-291615- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 308 Am Cst Wed Jan 29 2020
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. A chance of flurries. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest after midnight. A chance of flurries in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Cloudy. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 291103 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 503 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2020

SHORT TERM. 322 AM CST

Through Saturday .

Persistence appears to be the way to go with the forecast. Broad upper trough over the region with subtle/weak shortwave troughs rippling through the area at somewhat regular interval. Each trough looks to be lacking moisture and likely only providing some modest ascent. Our CWA looks to be close to smack dab in the middle of a persistent stratus deck that looks like it covers at least 25% of the Lower 48. No indication that anything will result in clearing out of this stratus through Saturday with minimal subsidence and negligible advection.

Will need to watch for potential flurries or very light snow with each passing weak shortwave trough. One such wave will move across the area later today with forecast soundings showing the majority of the ascent aloft, however, with deepening mid-upper level cloud cover likely producing virga that could go on to seed the stratus deck and produce light snow/flurries. Given that the interceding dry layer the virga needs to survive to "feed" the stratus looks to be sizable, I'm not expecting more than a trace to perhaps a tenth of two of an inch on the high side of snow this afternoon and evening. For the most part, the lower CIGS and higher boundary layer moisture conducive for meaningful FZDZ has remained west of our CWA. We'll need to keep an eye on the FZDZ potential with this wave and subsequent waves through Saturday morning, but at this point the potential is too low to add to the forecast.

One effect of the stratus has been to keep low temps fairly mild and consistently warmer than most, if not all, available guidance. Have adjusted forecast lows in the forecast significantly higher than the NBM through Friday night with recent verification stats showing the NBM with one of the more sizable cold biases for nighttime lows this past week.

- Izzi

LONG TERM. 322 AM CST

Saturday night through Tuesday .

Big pattern changed still slated to take place in the longer term period. First, a transition to more of a zonal flow then some low amplitude ridging over the central & eastern U.S. Low/mid level flow will turn westerly Saturday night and should finally push this stratus deck out of the area and set the stage for sunshine Sunday. Source region for our low level air mass Sunday is from the down sloped Chinook warmed areas of the central Plains. At this point, the biggest limiting factor temps will be the ambient snow cover. Progged 925mb temps support highs at or above 50 in areas with little or no snow cover, though one potential complicating factor for Chicago is that west winds will be blowing off a deeper snow pack over north central IL. NBM has trended warmer with high temps and latest model guidance would support highs even warmer in areas of no or minimal snow pack, but with the NBM trending up gradually, didn't make any big changes to forecast high temps. Again, if guidance remains consistent, later forecast should have highs in the 50s over the snow-free portions of the CWA.

Low confidence forecast beyond Sunday as several players look to get involved, including a northern stream trough passing by the upper Great Lakes, a digging western U.S. long wave trough, and potential lead shortwave trough ejecting out from the digging western trough. Not surprising given so many moving, but there are some significant differences among the various medium range models. At this distance, it looks like it will be unseasonably mild initially before a strong cold front slips south and knocks temps back down to near seasonal norms. Timing of the front will play a big role in high temps Monday, slower arrival and another day of 40s over snow cover and 50s elsewhere would be likely, with an earlier arrival meaning highs in the 30s. Precipitation chances look to increase later Monday into Tuesday, though timing and precip type are still big question marks at this point. With cold air probably infiltrating the area, any system ejecting from the western trough will bear watching.

- Izzi

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

Overall it is looking like a fairly quiet weather day across the terminals. Expect MVFR CIGS, at or above 2,000 feet, to continue across the area through most of the taf period. We will also likely see some intermittent flurries through the day today, though no real impacts are expected. Otherwise, winds will remain light and somewhat variable through the period.

KJB

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi38 min NNE 12 G 14 31°F 27°F
CNII2 13 mi28 min N 6 G 8 30°F 25°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi58 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 32°F 1020.6 hPa26°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi28 min N 8 G 9.9 28°F 1021.7 hPa (+0.7)
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi38 min S 1.9 G 2.9 31°F 25°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi36 minN 310.00 miOvercast30°F21°F72%1022.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi37 minN 410.00 miOvercast31°F23°F72%1021.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi35 minN 09.00 miLight Snow31°F26°F82%1022.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6CalmNW4W5W5NW3N6NW5CalmNW4W3NW5N5N5CalmE4E3CalmNW3CalmCalmNE6N5N3
1 day agoNW6NW6NW6NW4NW5NW6NW6NW5N4NW5NW5NW5NW5NW5NW4NW44NW4NW6NW5W4NW7NW5NW6
2 days agoW5W8W7W8W8W10W8W7W5W7W8W6W8W6W5W6W5W6W5W5NW4NW5NW6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.