Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Evanston, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:00PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:38 AM CDT (14:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:12AMMoonset 3:16PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201910221545;;088154 Fzus53 Klot 220806 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 306 Am Cdt Tue Oct 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-221545- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 306 Am Cdt Tue Oct 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..Southwest gales to 35 kt with occasional gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds to 30 kt, with occasional gales to 35 kt in the evening. Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Evanston, IL
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location: 42.03, -87.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 221146
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
646 am cdt Tue oct 22 2019

Short term
246 am cdt
through tonight...

impressive look at the mid latitude cyclone pinwheeling around the
upper midwest on satellite early this morning with its expansive
warm and dry conveyor belt structure. The surface low is reaching
its modeled strength around 987 mb with the cold front now shifted
through and a bent back occlusion secondary cold advection
area back across iowa. We will get another surge of winds with
the increasing low level jet to the west along with the cold
advection around and shortly after daybreak when the tighter
pressure gradient and stronger pressure couplet will pass
overhead. Gusts to 40 to 45 kt have been observed across western
iowa in this stronger gradient that will shift into portions of
our area today.

The best pressure couplet will largely graze the area, but areas
along and northwest of chicago will get into the more favored wind
axis. We don't feel expanding the advisory farther south and east is
warranted given that the low will eventually start to fill and lift
north. So while a few advisory level gusts (45 mph + ) may occur
outside of the advisory, they appear to be brief. The period of
strongest winds does seem to be centered on the morning hours.

Meanwhile, the comma cloud shield consists of showers that will
likely impact many areas today, and will make for a cool,
cloudy, windy, and occasionally damp day. As these showers roll
through they will also locally enhance the winds that are able to
make it to surface and therefore expect this potential today when
you are under any precipitation.

The low will pull away from the region tonight and weaken as it does
so. When this occurs, warm advection out ahead of a fast moving
system across the northern plains will drive warm front into
northern il and northwest in early Wednesday which will become
the focus for additional rain chances.

Kmd

Long term
246 am cdt
Wednesday through Monday...

a period of relatively quiet weather compared to the past 24 hours
is expected into this weekend.

Wednesday through Thursday night: a mid-level trough axis rotating
around the remnant deep cyclonic flow from the current system will
phase with a quick-moving north pacific shortwave trough over the
northern great plains early Wednesday. This wave will brush the cwa
just to the north Wednesday evening. Low-level WAA fgen ahead of
this wave will support a band or two of light rain primarily north
of i-88, but most likely closer to and north of the wisconsin state
line, late Wednesday afternoon and evening.

A cold front behind the wave will shift south across much of the cwa
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning before stalling over or
just south of the far southern cwa. Continued fgen along with some
increase in low-level moisture transport into the region will result
in additional bands of light rain Thursday afternoon and night. The
southeast third of the CWA roughly south of a line from pontiac to
kankakee to valparaiso may reside under one of these light rain
bands late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday: surface and mid-level ridging will quickly
build into the region on Friday, with the surface ridge crossing
all or at least a portion of the CWA Friday night. This will set
the stage for a potential freeze across a decent portion of the
cwa, with lows in the low 30s to locally upper 20s. WAA will ensue
on Saturday with increasing southerly winds, but conditions
should remain dry through the day.

Sunday and Monday: guidance begins to vary considerably with the
evolution of the southern great plains western gulf of mexico low
late in the week. The ECMWF cmc bring this system quickly northward
across the area Saturday night and Sunday while the GFS ejects the
system well southeast of the area on Saturday. However, guidance
does agree to some extent that deep troughing will begin to form
over the western CONUS early next week, setting the stage for a
period of active weather to close out october.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

primary concerns through this period are mainly strong SW winds
and MVFR ceilings today.

An increasing pressure gradient on the southern flank of a strong
low pressure system near western lake superior will pivot across
northern illinois and northwest indiana through this afternoon. Sw
wind gusts to around 35 knots will continue through the morning
hours. Wind direction will likely settle at around 230 degrees
during this time before gradually veering to around 250 by late
afternoon. A few gusts to 40 knots are possible at all sites this
morning, primarily at rfd. Winds will slowly diminish during the
afternoon, but remain gusty through tonight.

MVFR ceilings are spreading across the area this morning and will
continue through much of the day before becoming sct or lifting into
vfr levels this evening. Isolated to scattered -shra will accompany
the MVFR ceilings for a period this morning. Ceilings may reach low-
end MVFR levels with the -shra.

Kluber

Marine
More gales are expected today with no new changes to the gale
headline. Frequent gale gusts to 35 knots are expected into this
afternoon, with a few gusts to 40 knots possible along the
illinois nearshore. Winds will gradually diminish through the
afternoon into this evening, with gales possible ending earlier
than the current ending time of 9pm cdt.

Rodriguez kluber

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Wind advisory... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-ilz010-ilz011-
ilz012-ilz019-ilz020 until 3 pm Tuesday.

In... None.

Lm... Gale warning... Nearshore waters until 9
pm Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 7 mi39 min SW 21 G 33 52°F4 ft997.9 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 10 mi39 min SW 33 G 38 50°F 43°F
CNII2 13 mi24 min SW 14 G 21 48°F 41°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 22 mi51 min SW 15 G 25 50°F 1000.8 hPa42°F
45186 24 mi39 min SSW 19 G 25 47°F 51°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi39 min SW 18 G 27 48°F 998 hPa (+1.4)
45170 43 mi29 min SW 19 G 27 50°F 52°F4 ft44°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 46 mi39 min SSW 19 G 24 49°F 41°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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SE21
G28
SE21
G27
SE16
G23
S15
G27
S12
G21
S15
G21
S14
G19
SW13
G19
SW7
G15
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G26
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N7
G11
N6
G9
N5
G8
N3
G7
NE3
G6
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NE3
G6
E4
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G7
NE6
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SE7
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G16
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G28
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S9
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G13
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G17
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G16
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G14
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S4
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SW2
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SW1
W3
G6
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G8
NW3
N4
N7
G10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi47 minSW 15 G 2910.00 miOvercast49°F41°F74%1000 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL12 mi48 minSW 17 G 2610.00 miOvercast47°F41°F80%1000.3 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL17 mi46 minWSW 20 G 309.00 miLight Rain and Breezy50°F41°F71%1001.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE19
G29
SE14
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G33
SW10
G26
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G23
SW16
G25
SW13
G26
SW10
G19
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G29
SW10
G22
S11
G18
S14
G22
S16S16
G25
S16
G25
S19
G28
S16
G27
SW17
G38
SW13
G26
SW17
G31
SW14
G27
SW15
G29
1 day agoNW3N3NE4E6NE6NE6E6NE5NE6NE7E6E6E6E4E5E6NE5E3NE4E3E6E8SE12
G20
E15
G24
2 days agoS11S10S10S11S10S9S10S4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4NW6NW4NW8NW6NW4NW3NW5N7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.