Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Brookings, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 4:42PM Friday December 13, 2019 12:38 AM PST (08:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:24PMMoonset 9:02AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 901 Pm Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
Tonight..Northern portion, S wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to sw late tonight. Brookings southward, S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft late in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 15 to 16 ft at 17 seconds. Showers late in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Fri..S wind 15 to 25 kt...veering to sw 10 to 20 kt early in the afternoon, then...veering to nw 5 to 15 kt late in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 10 to 20 kt...becoming sw 5 kt late in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 15 to 16 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Fri night..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 5 kt...veering to ne in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 13 to 14 ft at 16 seconds. Chance of showers.
Sat..N wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to S in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 to 13 ft. Showers.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 10 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..E wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 10 to 11 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Sun night..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 10 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Mon..SE wind 5 kt...backing to E after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 8 to 9 ft.
Tue..E wind 5 kt...veering to se. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 9 ft.
PZZ300 901 Pm Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A large, high, and steep long period west swell remains at a peak overnight. Seas will barely diminish Friday while low pressure moves toward pt. St. George with gusty southerly winds south of brookings. Another low will track south and brush past the edge of the outer waters on Saturday. It will be followed by weak high pressure on Sunday. Throughout this time, expect diminishing but high and steep seas due to ongoing long-period swell. A stronger high builds in on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Brookings, OR
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location: 42.05, -124.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 130604 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1004 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2019

DISCUSSION. 8:45 PM Radar imagery is showing some showers moving across southern Oregon and northern California. Traffic cameras are showing some snow in the mountains with rain occurring in the lower elevations. The rain/snow line in Oregon appears to be around 5000 feet in Oregon with 5500-6000 feet in California. Taking note of Highway 299 and Cedarville Pass, am going to issue a winter weather advisory for the Warner Mountains from 4 AM Friday through 4 AM Saturday. Please see the WSWMFR for more details. Additionally, came close to issuing a winter weather advisory for the high country near Central Siskiyou County (near Tennant, Macdoel etc.) but all the major roads are expected to be below the snow level.

It is worth noting that with the lowering snow levels, more of the area will see snow as the precipitation tapers off Friday evening. There will be a modest amount of snow of as much as 3 inches on the roads at areas as low as 3500 feet, a lower elevation than those areas covered in the WSWMFR.

Since I do not want people to think that things are going to magically get better at 4 PM and encounter snow at levels lower than the advisory is for, I am extending the advisory through 8 PM Friday for all locations (except for the Warners) to account for lowering snow levels.

Otherwise, please see the previous discussion for more information on the next system making its approach to our area. -Schaaf

AVIATION. For the 13/06Z TAFs . There is a wide range of conditions this evening with mainly VFR but also areas of MVFR and IFR with mountain obscuration. Conditions will deteriorate overnight with increasing coverage of rain with lower ceilings and visibilities. Freezing levels near 5800 ft MSL overnight will peak near 6600 ft MSL on Friday morning while moderate to briefly heavy precipitation mainly produces a mix of IFR and MVFR across the area. Precipitation intensity will diminish Friday evening, but coverage will still be widespread with cigs mainly MVFR with mountain obscuration while freezing levels fall to around 4000 feet by the end of Friday evening. -DW

MARINE. Updated 830 PM PST Thursday, 12 December 2019 . The pattern will remain active during the next week with periods of rain. The largest impacts will be in the short term with a high to very high long period west swell remaining at a peak overnight of around 16 to 18 feet at 17 seconds. Winds will be variable and chaotic across the waters on Friday as a low moves east toward Pt. St. George. As a result, the strongest southerly winds are expected south of Brookings with easterly winds elsewhere/over a majority of the waters. Seas will barely diminish on Friday with seas remaining swell dominated.

Another low will track south and brush past the edge of the outer waters on Saturday. Bar conditions are expected to be particularly hazardous until seas diminish Saturday. Weak high pressure will follow on Sunday. Throughout this time, expect diminishing but high and steep seas due to ongoing long-period swell. A stronger high builds in on Monday with seas reaching a minimum at around 5 to 7 feet. Periods of mainly small craft advisory winds and seas are expected during the remainder of next week, another strong front may approach at the end of the week. -DW

PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 346 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2019/

SHORT TERM . Rain showers with higher mountain snow are continuing across the area today as upper level shortwaves move across the area and a strong upper level jet combined with moist onshore westerly flow remains in place. The active pattern will continue through Friday as an second, very moist frontal system moves into the Southern Oregon and Northern California coast tonight and Friday. This will bring moderate to heavy rain and mountain snow to the area tonight and Friday.

Today, widespread showers are occurring over the area. Showers will continue this evening then increase tonight ahead of the next system. Gusty winds are expected to continue over the mountains and into the Summer Lake area this afternoon and evening, then lower tonight. Snow levels are currently around 5500 to 6500 feet elevation. These snow levels will lower this evening and tonight across southwest Oregon, down to 4000 to 5000 feet. Lowest snow levels are expected in the Diamond Lake, Crater Lake and northern Klamath County areas with snow levels of 4000 to 4500 feet.

As additional precipitation moves inland tonight and Friday and snow levels lower, expect moderate snow accumulations to impact the passes in the Southern Oregon Cascades. Moderate snow accumulations are also likely across northern Klamath County from Modoc Point north to Crescent. A mix of light to moderate snow may also affect higher terrain east of the Cascades in southern Oregon, including the passes on highway 140. Of note, a sharp difference in snow levels is expected near or just north of the OR- CA border with higher snow levels of 5000 to 6000 feet continuing in the Siskiyous and into Siskiyou and Modoc Counties. The exact track of the weak surface low as it moves into the the area tonight and Friday will affect which areas see the warmer temperatures and higher snow levels. We will be continuing to monitor this low track as it moves into the area. Models are favor bring the low into the Coos coast (except the 12z and 18z GFS which favor a more southerly track), which keeps higher snow levels across northern California and into the Siskiyous. A winter weather advisory for the snow conditions is in effect for the Southern Oregon Cascades and areas east of the Cascades. Please see the WSWMFR for details.

For elevations below 4500 feet in southern Oregon and for most areas across northern California, moderate to locally heavy rain will be the main concern through Friday. Models have trended higher on precipitation amounts with current models supporting 1 to 2 inches of precipitation tonight through Friday afternoon across Coos County, into western Siskiyou County and over the Cascades and amounts of 0.5 to 1.0 inches across many inland valleys (except for heavier amounts possible in the southern Illinois Valley).

Precipitation will decrease Friday evening and night as this system shifts southeast and an upper trough begins to move into the area from the north. Lingering light showers are expected Friday night.

On Saturday, an upper trough and Pacific low pressure system will move into the region from the northwest. Cooler conditions and lower snow levels are expected on Saturday. However, models and ensembles are bringing mainly light precipitation into the area with the best chance for precipitation over southwest portions of the CWA along the coast, into Coos, Josephine and Siskiyou Counties. The track of this low may remain offshore, which would result in eastern areas receiving little or no precipitation. This track is uncertain though and will continue to monitor this portion of the forecast and update as the details become more clear.

LONG TERM . Sunday through Thursday, December 15-19, 2019 . The forecast area will be on the back side of an upper level trough on Sunday. A warm front offshore will slowly lift to the north Sunday into Monday morning in response to an upper ridge building out near 130W. Some showers could linger during this time frame, especially from the Cascades north and west, but, overall, the atmosphere will be drying out.

There is high confidence that the ridge will then build into the area more strongly Monday into Tuesday. This will result in a period of dry weather with weak mixing, temperature inversions and the typical dose of valley low clouds and fog that almost always accompanies mid-December ridges.

After that, however, confidence decreases as an upper level trough develops and forms a closed low out near 35N and 135W. Closed lows are notoriously difficult to predict since they are often displaced and sometimes completely cut off from the main upper level flow. This one isn't completely cut off, but models had been suggesting that this system remained in the upper flow . moving right along and bringing unsettled weather back into the area fairly quickly by mid next week. However, the latest 12z models, including the GEFS/ECMWF ensembles and the more recent runs of the NBM, are slowing this system down suggesting precipitation may hold off until later in the week (Thursday/Friday). We have adjusted POPs downward some on Wednesday (and may need to further), but the pattern does favor a return of unsettled weather late next week into next weekend. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory until 7 PM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday above 4500 feet in the for ORZ029-030. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday above 4500 feet in the for ORZ028. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday above 4500 feet in the for ORZ027. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday above 5000 feet in the for ORZ031. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ031.

CA . None.

Pacific Coastal Waters . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 15 mi39 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 54°F 53°F1024.6 hPa (-0.5)52°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 22 mi63 min S 8 G 11 54°F 52°F1024.5 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 49 mi57 min SSE 11 G 12 53°F 53°F1025.2 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR2 mi43 minN 00.25 miFog52°F52°F100%1024.4 hPa
Crescent City, Jack McNamara Field Airport, CA18 mi1.7 hrsSSW 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist54°F54°F100%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBOK

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S3SE3SE5SE4SE9SE8SE10SE7S8S75--5Calm3CalmCalmS43SE3S3CalmCalm
1 day agoSE7SE8SE10SE8SE5SE4E3SE3SE4SE5SE4SE5SE4E64633SE8--S8SE833
2 days agoCalmE5E7Calm3Calm4E3Calm35E5444SE5654Calm4E34SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:44 AM PST     6.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:42 AM PST     3.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:36 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:02 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:31 AM PST     7.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:45 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:23 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:44 PM PST     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.96.15.74.94.13.53.43.94.867.17.87.87.15.73.81.90.2-0.8-1-0.40.92.64.2

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:43 AM PST     6.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:38 AM PST     3.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:00 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:30 AM PST     7.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:24 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:40 PM PST     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.96.15.74.943.53.43.94.96.17.27.87.87.15.63.71.80.1-0.8-1-0.312.74.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.