Sunrise 5:48 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 11:03 PM   Moonset 6:57 AM

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LMZ080 Lake Michigan From Michigan City In To St. Joseph Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Port Washington To North Point Light Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From North Point Light To Wind Point Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Wilmette Harbor Il To Michigan City In 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Whitehall To Pentwater Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Holland To Grand Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From South Haven To Holland Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From St. Joseph To South Haven Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 300 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 26 2024
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi south - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 25 kt becoming south to 30 kt. Rain showers likely with slight chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft. Saturday - South winds to 30 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft. Saturday night - South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Rain showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. Sunday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft. Monday - South winds 15 to 25 kt increasing to 30 kt. Showers likely. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. Monday night - Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt becoming west 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 261901 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 301 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs are much warmer over the coming days with 70s being the norm. 80 degrees will be possible both weekend days.

- Periodic chances for rain and storms are expected between this afternoon and next week with tonight and Monday having the greatest chances.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

In a decoupling jet scenario with the Pacific jet taking over, an upper low deepens and drifts northeast from the Central Plains to the Northern Plains between this afternoon and Saturday. During this time, the warm front pushes through the area later this afternoon and tonight. Saturation appears fairly quick this afternoon and evening on model time-sections despite Td depressions between 20 and 30F. It is interesting to see much of the omega leaning westward with much of the large ascent and mid level vorticity staying there as well. It isn't until later tonight/early Saturday that the large ascent shifts eastward likely meaning rainfall will be focused westward as well. These leans are noticeable on the PWAT moisture content as well, as to where the maximums lie. Despite the 1 to 3 SDs above normal, it still appears the lack of instability and forcing tonight point to lesser QPF output, which appear to stay less than 0.25 aside from counties west of IN-31 where closer to 0.5" may be more in reach.

For the weekend, it appears there will be an opportunity to tap into effective shear during the morning hours, and with instability available, severe weather is possible. The main threat with that appears to strong winds and perhaps a stray spin up. Hail appears to be a lesser threat given the moist low levels during this time.
Another threat for thunderstorms is possible Saturday afternoon, but the shear appears to be a little bit more sporadic and there's some question about how much instability might be left over at that point. We do actually get 60 degree dew points into the area during the afternoon and low level temperatures surpass the teens Celsius.
With some mixing, highs will be able to get into the 70s allowing for a warm day. Sunday has some instability around and a weak area of vorticity may be able to tap into it to create some thunderstorms during the morning. But dry air follows allowing for a rain-free afternoon. 70s and perhaps 80 degree highs will be in play for Sunday.

A cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday with some thunderstorms possible. There is some shear to work with, although it appears to diminish by Monday morning. The moisture axis appears to stall out on Monday and may be able to refire in the I-69 corridor on east during the afternoon. Initial model output indicates some shear and instability will be available for showers and storms as well.

Some drying out appears likely for Tuesday morning behind the cold front. The ECMWF shows a dry solution as opposed to GFS/GEM which hold on to some precipitation. Perhaps they are keying into a warm front-like feature that rises north during the afternoon to form showers. Based on its history in these events, will lean towards the ECMWF at least with messaging. More confidence can be had with precipitation occurring in the area later Tuesday night as a shortwave moving through in the flow coincides with a cold front passage. Thunderstorms are also possible with both instability and shear present to be tapped into. It then appears that a break in the unsettled weather can be forecast after a cold front moves through Thursday night. Temperatures in the 70s will still continue through this period with Friday having a good chance to return to cooler temperatures. Once again, NBM probability of 1 inch in 24 hours is below 20 percent in any one period through this unsettled time frame indicating its sporadic nature and that its floor is low as far as QPF is concerned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Strong low level moisture advection will continue to work across northern Indiana through the late afternoon hours. The subcloud layer will remain quite dry which should limit available instability. An overall diminishing trend with incoming precip shield is possible, but would expect at least KSBN to receive a few hours of light rain showers this afternoon into early evening. Low level jet will ramp up this evening allowing a secondary moisture advective surge in the 04Z-06Z timeframe.
This should also coincide with an upper level short wave in southwest upper flow lifting northeast out of MO/southern IL to provide another enhancement to rain chances from 05Z-10Z. Some weak elevated instability is expected overnight with some isolated-scattered thunderstorm potential. Will also include LLWS mention tonight into early Saturday as low level jet develops. Some MVFR cigs are possible late tonight into early Saturday morning, with primarily VFR cigs on Saturday. Gusty southeast winds to begin the period will veer south later tonight and then south southwest for Saturday with gusts to 25 to 30 knots possible at times.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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