Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 8:10 PM Moonrise 11:53 PM   Moonset 7:22 AM

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PZZ815 Florence, Or To Point St. George Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 754 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - S to sw winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Rain, then showers. Tonight - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Chance of rain. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Chance of showers. Sun night - W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 9 ft. Chance of showers. Mon - NW winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Mon night - W to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Tue - NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Tue night - N to nw winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Wed - N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Wed night - N winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.

PZZ800 Cape Flattery To Cape Shoalwater Between 60 Nm And 150 Nm Offshore- 754 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - S winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft. Rain.Tonight - W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. Chance of rain. Sun - W to sw winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 11 ft. Showers.Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft. Showers. Slight chance of tstms. Mon - W to nw winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W to sw. Seas 8 to 10 ft. Mon night - W to sw winds 10 to 20 kt, becoming W 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Tue - N to nw winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming N 5 to 15 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. Tue night - NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Wed - NW winds 5 to 15 kt, becoming w. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Wed night - S to sw winds 5 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.

FXUS66 KMFR 280355 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 855 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

DISCUSSION
The forecast is on track for the night. A few weak showers continue over Douglas County as well as the Cascades and around Mount Shasta. Occasional post-frontal showers will continue along the Oregon coast and over the Cascades on Sunday, and active weather continues on Monday as another weak front will bring a new round of showers.

Please see the previous discussion for more details about the short- and long-term forecasts. -TAD

AVIATION
28/00Z TAFs...A front will continue some light rain showers from the coast to the Cascades overnight into early Sunday morning. VFR will be the predominant condition, though areas of ceilings/visibilities could lower to MVFR (perhaps even local IFR)
at times at the coast and into the Umpqua Valley. Higher terrain will also be occasionally obscured.

For Medford and areas to the south and east, expect mostly VFR through Sunday. Westerly winds will be occasionally gusty (20-25 kt)
again during the afternoon into Sunday evening east of the Cascades, including at Klamath Falls, but strong winds are not expected.

-DW

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Saturday, April 27, 2024...Gusty south winds and isolated showers near shore will taper off this evening as a front moves inland. Steep seas will continue into late tonight.
Winds will continue to shift to west and weaken overnight into early Sunday.

Swell dominated seas continue through Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday and bring stronger winds. The pattern will continue to remain active, with seas possibly becoming high and steep on Tuesday into Tuesday night. -DW

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 218 PM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024/

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday night 4/28
RADAR imagery is showing a band of showers moving across southern Oregon and northern California along a frontal boundary. This frontal boundary has pushed a bit farther south than what was originally thought, and could put down some light rain largely along and west of the Cascades with a few areas east of the Cascades also picking up on the rain. These showers will largely dissipate overnight, but the cloudy weather will continue. This will help to moderate the overnight lows somewhat and keep them from reaching freezing west of the Cascades and in the upper 20s to low 30s east of the Cascades.

Generally unsettled, cloudy weather with a few lingering showers along the coast and in Douglas County will be possible on Saturday. Then, the next front will approach the Pacific Northwest Sunday night into Monday. The bottom line is that we are not expecting any hazardous impacts at this time. More information about this system is in the long term portion of the discussion below. -Schaaf

LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday, April 29 - May 4, 2024...
WNW flow aloft will continue to bring systems from the Gulf of Alaska into the PacNW early next week. This combined with low-level onshore flow will keep things on the cool, unsettled side with highest precipitation probabilities in NW sections of our CWA, while SE sections (south and east of the Cascades) remain on the dry side.

An upper trough will swing through Monday morning and this will bring a shot of showers (60-90% chance) to the coast eastward to the Cascades. We can't rule out a shower or two around the Rogue Valley/Medford area Monday, but most of the time will be rain free.
Snow levels will drop to as low as 3000 feet by Monday morning, but any snow accumulations will be confined to the mountains generally above 4500 feet. Highest amounts will be from about Crater Lake northward, where 2-5" could accumulate. Up to an inch of snow is possible over Highway 140 near Lake of the Woods with a skiff also possible on parts of Highway 97 north of Chiloquin. So, if traveling early Monday morning, be aware of the potential for some slick spots in those areas. South of the OR/CA border, we don't think much precipitation will make it over the mountains and it will just be partly cloudy. As such, it'll be cold first thing Monday morning for some frost in the lower Klamath, Scott and Shasta valleys.

This system exits to the east Monday evening, so shower chances diminish, but it will be followed by another upper disturbance that will swing through northern Oregon Tuesday and into Idaho Tuesday night into Wednesday. Once again, we'll be on the southern fringes of this system, so PoPs (for showers) remain highest across the north, lowest across the south. Snow levels bottom out near 2500 feet Tuesday morning, but again most, if not all, snow accumulation will be in the mountains north of Crater Lake. Overall, temperatures will remain near to below normal. Frost/freezing conditions west of the Cascades are becoming more likely given the main area of precip potential is north of the Umpqua Divide. Frost (lows 33-36F) chances (50-80% chance) are highest for a few hours in the typically colder locations (Illinois/Applegate Valley/Grants Pass areas) both Tue/Wed mornings. Freezing conditions (<=32F) are possible (20-30% chance)
in the Illinois Valley as well.

As the upper trough shifts to the east, things dry out on Wednesday with some sunshine and a slightly milder afternoon (high temps back closer to seasonal normals). Models maintain some degree of uncertainty after Wednesday with NBM still showing some PoPs (20- 30%) across NW portions of the CWA This stems from a smaller percentage of model members (GEFS/Canadian and to an even lesser extent ECENS) showing a flat upper ridge and a weak trough, you guessed it, skimming over the top Wednesday night into Thursday.
More plausible scenarios feature a bit stronger ridge and no precip along with a more significant warm up. We'll see how it shakes out, but it does appear that temperatures should rebound to above normal levels Thu/Fri. Models are showing a potentially more substantial trough moving in next weekend, but confidence in the details is low at this point. -Spilde

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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