Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

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Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:49PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 4:00 AM EDT (08:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:58PMMoonset 11:49AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 924 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Chance of showers and tstms late.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 924 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure across the area waters will shift east tonight. A warm front will move north of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will then approach the waters late Wednesday night and slowly move through the area Thursday into Friday, followed by high pressure into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 210540
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
140 am edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Clouds, scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach our area
from the southwest later tonight. Warm muggy conditions, along with
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Wednesday, with some
storms possibly becoming severe. Some additional rain showers are
possible on Thursday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Fair
and cool weather is forecast for Friday into the weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 105 am edt, skies are still mainly clear across central
and northern areas, which has allowed temps to drop off into
the lower mid 50s across portions of the southern adirondacks,
and upper 50s to mid 60s elsewhere.

Mid level clouds were increasing across southern areas,
especially across the catskills in response to increasing mid
level warm advection ahead of approaching warm front. Isolated
showers were developing across south central nys and the western
catskills as well. Temps were slightly warmer for the i-90
corridor and points south, generally in the 60s, although some
lower 70s persisted in some valley locales.

The isolated showers across south central nys and the catskills
are expected to continue drifting northeast through sunrise, and
as a low level jet segment strengthens across the northern mid
atlantic states, coverage of showers should increase by
daybreak, especially across the mohawk valley, capital region
and eastern catskills. Elevated instability should also promote
some embedded thunderstorms as well. Some locally heavy rain,
and frequent lightning will be possible with any stronger
convective elements around sunrise.

Elsewhere, temps will likely reach mins over the next 1-2 hours,
with slowly rising temps expected thereafter as clouds and
moisture increase.

Short term 6 am this morning through Thursday night
The weather will become active Wednesday into Wednesday night as
a cold front and associated mid-to-upper level short wave
approaches our area from the west. Wednesday morning will start
with scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in
association with a warm front lifting north across the area. Dew
points will rise substantially with the passage of this front,
returning to the mid 60s to near 70 by midday Wednesday. A pre-
frontal surface trough will likely develop over central ny
during the day Wednesday ahead of a cold front moving east from
the great lakes. The trough will become the focus for
thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Increasing low-
level moisture will allow for MLCAPE to rise through the
morning. The amount of MLCAPE available to fuel the convection
on Wednesday afternoon will depend partially on how much
cloudiness in association with scattered early morning showers
manages to linger across the area. SREF plumes indicate most
likely MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j kg during the afternoon
Wednesday and this would certainly be sufficient for a round of
strong to severe storms given increasing mid-level flow and
shear associated with the approaching mid-level trough with deep
layer shear increasing to 30 to 35 kts during the afternoon.

The cams are strongly suggesting organized convection
in the form of short lines of storms Wednesday afternoon. Some
discrete storms are also likely and they will be rotating given
the moderately strong deep-layer shear and confirmed by cam
forecasts of enhanced updraft helicity. Strong winds will likely
be the primary threat with storms Wednesday afternoon, but
large hail associated with discrete supercells is also possible.

Model soundings are also showing 0-1 km shear values to 30 kts
with 0-1 km helicity well over 100 s-1. Based on this, it would
seem possible that a few tornadoes could also occur over the
northeast CONUS where storms can interact with enhanced low-
level shear associated with boundaries left over from previous
or ongoing convection. Based on all of the above the SPC has put
our entire area in a slight risk for severe storms Wednesday.

Storms will be moving east of the area Wednesday night, followed
by a more quiet pattern for the rest of the week with much lower
humidity. A few isolated showers may occur Thursday with the
passage of a mid-level cold pool, but low-levels will be drying
out which should keep shower activity to a minimum. High
temperatures Thursday will range from the 70s over higher
terrain to near 80 in the hudson valley.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
A mainly dry and seasonable weekend is anticipated as a positively
tilted upper level trough moves through the area and canadian high
pressure takes control through early next weekend. Northerly flow
should keep temperatures a few degrees below normal and keep
humidity levels low through the weekend. High temperatures generally
should be pleasant in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s before
temperatures gradually warm heading into early next week, rising
back towards normal around 80. The potential for rain increases
towards the middle of next week as the next system approaches from
the midwest. Read on for details.

Our cold front from Thursday should be just south of forecast area
on Friday, around nyc southern new england but the guidance still
shows potential for a shortwave to ride along the boundary Friday
morning. Should this happen, the southern areas of the mid-hudson
valley and NW ct could see some showers, mainly Friday morning. For
now kept a dry forecast to be in line with the neighboring wfos but
we will monitor trends and adjusts pops upwards, if necessary.

Otherwise, our positively tilted trough will progress southward from
canada into the northeast Friday into Saturday. The base of the
trough looks to feature a 500mb shortwave with an associated cold
pool which guidance suggests moves right over through eastern ny and
western new england during the day on Saturday. Since 700mb moisture
on most members of the latest guidance is very dry, the models are
not producing qpf. However, we will monitor trends as the cold pool
aloft could generate a few scattered diurnally driven showers. For
now we maintained a dry forecast which is in line with the
neighbors. Temperatures under the northerly flow should fall a
degrees shy of normal for late august and stay in the low to mid 70s
with low humidity. The higher terrain in the adirondacks, catskills
and greens could even stay in the upper 60s. Overnight lows should
turn chilly in the 50s (40s higher terrain) as clear skies and calm
winds lead to good radiational cooling.

The GFS and cmc-nh show heights rising on Sunday as strong upper
level ridging and an expansive rather strong ~1025hpa surface high
from southern canada kicks our shortwave out to sea. The ecmwf
continues to linger the shortwave over new england but this seems to
be the outlier. Expecting mainly sunny skies on Sunday under the
strong surface high pressure with temperatures slightly warmer than
Saturday in the mid - upper 70s. Again, cool temperatures overnight
in the 50s expected once again Sunday night.

High pressure stays in control Monday with similar temperatures
anticipated. The next chance for precipitation along with an
increase in temperatures and humidity looks to arrive in the middle
of the week. The latest 12z guidance still shows discrepancies in
timing and intensity of precipitation so continued to only show
slight chance pops for the Monday night and Tuesday period.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 0530z, mainly clear skies over the terminals with bands of
cirrus advancing from the west. Typical fog has developed at
kgfl, and expect this to continue at times through around 10z or
so when it may dissipate some as a thicker area of midlevel
clouds approaches. In the 10-14z timeframe, there are signals
that showers and possibly some isolated thunderstorms will
develop along a diffuse warm front. Handled this with prevailing
shra and vcts. Will keep flying conditionsVFR with this
activity, but there could be some MVFR CIGS vsby and even
potentially some ifr if a heavier downpour associated with a ts
develops.

Attention then turns to potential for convection from the late
morning into the evening. Low confidence forecast with respect
to timing and coverage of convection. Lingering cloud cover and
showers in the late morning early afternoon may hamper
instability, especially at kgfl. However, there is enough of a
signal to mention prob30 for TS at all terminals. For kgfl kalb,
the most favored timeframe is 17-21z, while at kpou kpsf it is
18-24z. If breaks in the clouds showers develop late morning
into early afternoon, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible with damaging winds and large hail becoming the
hazards. Brief periods of ifr vsby is possible in heavier
showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe, but outside of
thunderstorms expect mainlyVFR conditions with stratocumulus
based around 3.5-5kft agl.

After 00z.22, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in
intensity and coverage. Some mist may develop where rainfall
occurred earlier, especially at kgfl kpsf.

Winds will remain less than 10 kt through the TAF period,
becoming mainly southerly during the day today.

Outlook...

Thursday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Friday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Dry, warm weather will continue this evening, then clouds and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop late tonight as
a warm front approaches the area. Showers and thunderstorms will
become more likely during the day Wednesday and especially
Wednesday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. Rh
values Wednesday afternoon will fall to 55 to 65 percent. A
drier and milder airmass returns Thursday into the weekend,
allowing for good drying conditions. Rh values Thursday will
fall to 45 to 55 percent. Winds will be generally 10 kts or
less, except briefly higher near thunderstorms Wednesday.

Hydrology
An anomalously moist airmass will spread back into the region
tonight into Wednesday with pwat values increasing to 1.50-2.00
inches. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the moist airmass Wednesday as moderate instability
develops, and any storm will be capable of heavy rainfall.

Though a strong wind field will result in fast moving storms,
there is potential for repeated rounds of storms which will lead
to the threat of urban poor drainage flooding and possible
isolated flash flooding.

Mainly dry weather is expected Thursday into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd
near term... Snd mse kl
short term... Mse
long term... Kl
aviation... Thompson
fire weather... Mse thompson
hydrology... Mse thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi91 min Calm 70°F 1016 hPa68°F
TKPN6 4 mi61 min S 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 80°F1015.9 hPa (-0.6)70°F
NPXN6 17 mi91 min Calm 72°F 1017 hPa69°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi67 min NNE 1 G 1.9 73°F 78°F1016.2 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi61 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 74°F 78°F1016 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----CalmCalmCalmN5E4CalmCalmNW5W6SW7SW6W7CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS34SW6S7W7SW7NW10W6W5W6------------------
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm4W8S6S7S7SE7SE4E7S5E3SW3CalmCalmCalmSE5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
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Wed -- 12:23 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:17 AM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:33 PM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:38 PM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.911.52.43.23.63.83.73.42.71.710.70.711.92.93.63.93.93.73.22.31.6

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:47 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:03 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:08 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.11.82.63.23.53.63.42.92.11.30.80.60.81.42.33.13.63.73.63.32.61.81.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.