Thursday, April2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:24PM Thursday April 2, 2020 2:48 AM EDT (06:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 3:25AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1236 Am Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt this morning through this evening...
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Fri..N winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1236 Am Edt Thu Apr 2 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Deep low pressure well southeast of eastern long island will move slowly northeast overnight. The low then meanders well south and east of long island Thursday through Friday night. High pressure will build across the area this weekend before a weak cold front crosses the area Sunday night. High pressure then briefly returns on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 020504 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 104 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2020

SYNOPSIS. A developing storm system off the New England coast will retrograde closer to the coast late Thursday into early Friday, bringing increasing clouds and some showers to the region. Fair and milder weather should return for Saturday into Sunday, however some late day showers are possible Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/. As of 1248 AM EDT . IR satellite imagery continues to show some stratocu clouds anchored to the terrain remain across parts of the northern and eastern Catskills, Schoharie Valley and Albany County Hilltowns. In addition, some lower clouds are also impacting the western and southern Adirondacks, Glens Falls area and southern VT. These clouds are also spreading southward into the Taconics and Berkshires and this trend looks to continue over the next few hours. At the same time, high level cirrus clouds on the western fringe of a large coastal storm are starting to spread westward across New England, and will be moving into our area from the east through the overnight as well. As a result, most locations will trend towards a mostly cloudy sky for the late night hours, but no precip is expected through the overnight.

Temps should fall into the lower/mid 30s for most areas, although some upper 20s are possible across the higher terrain where skies are currently clear.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Thursday, strong offshore storm system begins to retrograde back westward, closer to the New England coast late Thursday into Thursday night. Low/mid level moisture currently pooling across southeast Canada and northeast New England should continue expanding south and west across the region during the day, although timing remains uncertain for areas south and west of the Capital Region. Consensus seems to favor increasing chances for rain showers across southern VT, the northern Berkshires into the upper Hudson Valley/southeast Adirondacks during the afternoon hours, with some showers possibly reaching into the Capital Region and central/southern Berkshires closer to sunset. Before any thicker clouds and showers arrive, some breaks of sun will be possible, and any slight delay in their arrival could allow temps to warm into the mid 50s in lower elevations, due to downsloping and overall subsidence well west of the retrograding low. Winds will increase from the north to northwest, and will likely become quite gusty by afternoon, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible, especially across higher elevations of western New England, and within north/south oriented such as the Hudson Valley. Otherwise, highs mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Rapid cooling will likely occur once rain commences, and some snow will be possible across higher elevations in southern VT (above 2000 feet).

Thursday night, bands of precipitation should continue translating south and west across the region. Dynamic/evaporational cooling will lead to some snow/sleet for higher terrain areas above 1800 feet within the eastern Catskills, SW Adirondacks, and especially southern VT and Berkshires, where a coating to 2 inches of snow/sleet could occur. As an elevated warm layer advances south and west, these higher elevations may actually change over to freezing rain later at night, with ice accretions of up to one tenth of an inch possible. It will remain breezy, with north to northeast winds possibly gusting 20-30 mph or slightly higher. Lows mainly 35-40, except 30-35 across higher elevations, especially above 1800 feet.

Friday-Friday night, retrograding low should begin looping back south and east, with forcing decreasing from north to south during the day. So, widespread showers or light rain in the morning, with decreasing coverage from north to south in the afternoon. Some breaks in the clouds could develop across northern areas before sunset. Highs Friday mid 40s to lower/mid 50s, with warmer temps possible if breaks in the clouds develop late in the day. Cloud coverage remains uncertain for Friday night, as low level moisture may remain trapped beneath lowering mid level inversion. Lows mainly in the 30s to around 40, but could be colder if skies tend to clear out more than expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Temperatures during the first weekend and first full week of April look to be near or slightly above normal as strong ridging building over much of the CONUS allows westerly flow to persist over our region. While there are a few minor chances for generally light/brief precipitation through the first half of the period, chances for more widespread precipitation looks to increase heading into the middle of next week. Read on for details.

We start the long term off on Saturday with high pressure sliding into northern New England in the wake of the exiting coastal low. Northerly flow ahead of the upper level ridge building eastward should usher in relatively cooler temperatures but sfc temperatures should still remain seasonable in the upper 40s to low-mid 50s. A weak disturbance traversing Ontario should send a warm front into the Northeast Saturday afternoon as the positively titled ridge axis heads our way. Moisture along the boundary is rather lackluster so we continued a dry forecast although clouds may increase. 500hPa flow shows potential for a compact shortwave to slide along the eastward slide of the building ridge during the day Saturday but guidance has trended westward with its track. Thus, it looks like the shortwave, should it materialize, should remain west of our region so more reason to keep the forecast dry for now.

The warm front looks to push east through the region Saturday night with surface winds shifting from northerly to southwesterly. With skies partially clearing, temperatures should have a chance to drop into the upper 30s to near 40.

Eastern NY/western New England should enter into the warm sector on Sunday with more breaks of sun possible ahead of the approaching cold front. 850hPa isotherm pattern shows a tongue of warmer isotherms spiking into the region ahead of the boundary which could allow temperatures to peak into the upper 50s to low 60s. The associated cold front then looks to move through the region Sunday afternoon but mid-level moisture is not overly impressive so coverage, intensity and duration of any showers looks low at this time. Thus, we limited POPs to just low end chance at this time. We did notice that the warm sector has potential to introduce steeper mid-level lapse as shown in the ECWMF with a tongue of 6-6.5C/km lapse rates intruding northward Sunday P.M. After collaborating with neighboring WFOs and given weak mid-level moisture, we did not include any thunder mention at this time. We will keep an eye on the potential for the cold front to tap into some elevated instability in future updates.

The weak cold front then exits Sunday night but given the strong and very broad ridging extending across much of the CONUS, winds look to only shift west-northwest. As a result, warm air riding along the northern periphery of the ridge looks to head into the Northeast which should keep temperatures relatively mild Sunday night. Surface high pressure builds into the region on Monday leading to increased sunshine. The strong April sun angle plus the westerly flow regime, temperatures should warm well into the upper 50s to even mid 60s in valley areas.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases heading into Tuesday and especially Wednesday as the ALY CWA remains within the northern periphery of the broad ridge. The global guidance still shows discrepancies on the timing and placement of various shortwaves and boundaries but given this pattern, we sided with the slightly cooler guidance to show temperatures staying seasonable in the 50s mid-week and gradually increased POPs from west to east from slight chance on Tuesday to chance by Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Stratus deck is attempting to build across the region with KPSF and KGFL at or just within MVFR flight conditions. As moisture will continue to increase, we will forecast MVFR ceilings to spread southwest through the daylight hours Thursday. As for precipitation, expectations for KGFL-KPSF will be the initial locations where light rain will evolve, then spread further inland for KALB-KPOU locations during the afternoon hours.

Northerly winds at less than 10 Kts overnight become north to northwest through Thursday at 10 to 15 Kt with some gusts over 20-25 Kts.

Outlook .

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. RA. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

FIRE WEATHER. Gusty northwest to north winds of 25 to 35 mph expected Thursday afternoon .

A developing storm system off the New England coast will retrograde closer to the coast late Thursday into early Friday, bringing increasing clouds and some showers to the region. Fair and milder weather should return for Saturday into Sunday, however some late day showers are possible Sunday.

RH values will recover to 80-100 percent tonight, then fall to 30-40 percent in valleys, and 40-60 percent across higher elevations Thursday afternoon.

North to northwest winds will average 5 to 15 mph tonight, then increase by Thursday afternoon to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

HYDROLOGY. No widespread flooding is expected within the ALY HSA over the next several days.

Spotty light rain or showers will develop late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, with amounts generally remaining under one quarter of an inch (with greatest amounts for areas east of the Hudson River, as well as the northeast Catskills into western New England.)

Latest NERFC forecasts indicate river levels remaining below action stage, with river levels generally slowly receding through late this week. However, will have to watch for tidal issues on the Hudson River near Poughkeepsie late Friday into Saturday, given the strong and slow moving offshore storm system. This could allow river levels at high tide times to approach minor FS near Poughkeepsie late Friday into Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . KL NEAR TERM . Frugis/KL/NAS SHORT TERM . KL LONG TERM . Speciale AVIATION . BGM/NAS FIRE WEATHER . KL/BGM HYDROLOGY . KL/BGM/Wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi79 min SW 1.9 41°F 1009 hPa30°F
TKPN6 4 mi55 min N 6 G 12 41°F 45°F1009.3 hPa28°F
NPXN6 17 mi79 min N 4.1 42°F 1010 hPa30°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi55 min NNW 8 G 13 42°F 45°F1006.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi55 min N 7 G 12 44°F 45°F1005.6 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi56 minN 910.00 miFair39°F27°F62%1008.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN3N3N5NE6N6NW8NW7N13
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1 day agoE4NE3E4CalmE3E3E3NE6CalmN4NE3CalmCalm4NE4NE7NE5N3N3NE5NE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3E3CalmCalmSE34E5CalmSE3Calm4CalmE4E5CalmNE4E5NE4E5E4E5E4E3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:23 AM EDT     0.91 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:48 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:39 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:00 PM EDT     3.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.410.911.42.33.33.83.93.73.32.71.91.410.70.71.222.83.23.33.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:53 AM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:18 AM EDT     3.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:30 PM EDT     3.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.90.91.11.82.73.43.63.63.32.82.21.51.10.80.60.81.52.32.83.13.12.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.