Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday July 5, 2020 12:30 AM EDT (04:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 720 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers late.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 720 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Weak high pressure remains over the waters through Monday with a series of surface troughs shifting near or through the area Sunday and Monday. A warm front moves through on Tuesday, otherwise weak high pressure prevails through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 050252 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1052 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. After a dry and mild night, expect another very warm day tomorrow with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly over the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Heat and humidity will build for the middle and end of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. As of 10:30PM, some mid-level clouds are pushing eastward from the southern Adirondacks towards southern Vermont but otherwise, temperatures remain on track. Dew points, as expected, have rebounded back into the upper 50s to low 60s now that the boundary layer has decoupled. Once this initial patch of clouds moves out, radiational cooling should help temperatures fall a bit closer to their respective dew points.

Latest GOES16 Nighttime Microphysics shows the stratus deck off the New England/Long Island Sound moving inland thanks to the south-southeast flow regime in place. Therefore, still thinking that portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT could see reduced ceilings after 06/07 UTC as the stratus deck moves inland. In addition, the elevated dewpoints combined with the period of radiational cooling before the stratus arrives could enhance the potential for patchy fog. We included patchy fog mention in the latest update during the pre-dawn hours in valley areas.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Northwest flow continues on Sunday with good flow aloft as a sharp shortwave trough pivots from Quebec into Maine. Ahead of this feature, a warm and rather dry airmass will be in place to start the day over the local area, with PWATs generally around an inch and 850 mb temps in the mid-teens (C). Deep mixing per model soundings will promote another very warm day, although humidity levels will be low with dewpoints mixing out into the mid-50s to around 60F. Highs generally in the 80s, but some low 90s in the Hudson Valley from the Capital District on south. Though the best synoptic- scale ascent will be focused to our north and east, a low-level front will be approaching the NY/ON/QC border late in the day with showers and thunderstorms. The question locally will be, to what extent can moisture pool ahead of this boundary to support showers and thunderstorms surviving or generating across our northern tier of counties (southern Adirondacks and Lake George region into southern Vermont). Instability will be the limiting factor, but HREF mean suggests 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE will be possible. If any robust updrafts develop, gusty winds will be a threat given the steep lapse rates and dry air at low levels. Forecast calls for 20-40 PoPs in the aforementioned region, with a dry forecast to the south. Given the strong forcing, some activity may linger over portions of the northern tier a bit past sunset. Otherwise, another tranquil night is expected as higher pressures expand southward with lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

Northwest flow remains overhead on Monday. At the surface, dry air emanating from high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes is expected to result in low humidity levels and generally stable conditions, so precipitation chances will be nearly nil. The NAM is still suggesting some higher dewpoints will not scour out near the eastern Catskills, so will maintain slight chance PoPs there for a couple pop-up storms. Temps will still be warm, but possibly a few degrees cooler than Sunday in most areas.

Monday night, a low-level jet strengthens slightly with warm advection at 850 mb as winds turn southwesterly. Not a great signal in the guidance, but can't totally rule out a couple of showers or storms with this process as Showalters go negative. Lows once again expected in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Prospects for another heat wave continue to increase for this week, as flat upper ridging builds into our region.

A warm front approaching from the south/west should keep the core of heat west of the region Tuesday, though still warm with highs reaching 85-90 for elevations below 1000 feet, and 80-85 above. Dewpoints climb into the lower/mid 60s in the afternoon.

Greater levels of heat and humidity arrive Wednesday, and could persist through Friday, with afternoon max temps potentially reaching 90-95 for elevations below 1000 feet, and 85-90 for elevations above. Afternoon dewpoints should rise into the mid/upper 60s, if not slightly higher for lower elevations, resulting in heat indices reaching the mid/upper 90s or slightly higher for elevations below 1000 feet. Heat advisories will likely be needed for Wednesday- Friday afternoons for elevations below 1000 feet. Nighttime lows mainly in the 60s, although some more urban locations could hold around or over 70, providing little, if any, relief from the heat.

As for precipitation chances, some upper energy will track east within the northern periphery of the upper ridging Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, with greatest coverage expected across the eastern Catskills, Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks where the retreating warm front and some possible lake breeze interactions enhance these chances. Somewhat better coverage expected Wednesday-Thursday afternoon/evenings as some weak upper level disturbances potentially track through and interact with possible lake breeze boundaries.

There are hints of a more organized upper short wave approaching Friday into Saturday, along with the possibility of a low tracking northward along or off the eastern seaboard, so chances for showers/thunderstorms may be higher and more widespread, but there remain some disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles in exactly how these features evolve. Still warm and humid Saturday, with highs in the 80s for most areas, along with dewpoints potentially in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions expected through 06 UTC for all TAF sites. Heading towards 08 - 09 UTC, we will have to monitor POU and PSF as an onshore flow could advect in a low stratus deck/patchy fog. Given that dew points will remain elevated around 60 with mainly clear skies in place beforehand, radiational cooling may also assist in bringing the temperature closer to the respective dew points. This would also assist in some patchy fog formation towards sunrise. For now, we just eluded to this potential with FEW015 in the PSF TAF at 09 UTC through 14 UTC. We chose not to mention anything in the POU TAF just yet but we will have to monitor trends.

After any stratus/patchy fog burns off early AM tomorrow, expecting VFR ceilings through the day. GFL will need to be monitored late in the TAF period as some thunderstorms may move into the region due to a cold front sinking southward. Too early at this time to mention the potential in the TAF but this will the next concern to watch.

Wind will light and variable tonight before becoming west- northwest tomorrow sustained generally 5 to 8kts.

Outlook .

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Low Operational Impact Slight Chance of SHRA. TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact Isolated SHRA. TSRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact Scattered SHRA. TSRA.

FIRE WEATHER. A warm and drier airmass will continue for Sunday and Monday with minimum RH values falling into the 30 to 45 percent range. Winds Sunday will be from the west with some gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible in the afternoon. On Monday they will be light from the north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening over the southern Adirondacks into southern Vermont, but otherwise this period should be mainly dry. RH values Sunday and Monday night will rebound to 80-100 percent.

Heat and humidity will increase Tuesday but especially Wednesday through Friday, with daily thunderstorm chances.

HYDROLOGY. Most of the forecast area remains in the abnormally dry to moderate drought categories on the latest US Drought Monitor, however some areas have seen beneficial rain in the last week. No precipitation of hydrological significance is expected through at least Tuesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . None. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Thompson/Speciale NEAR TERM . Thompson/Speciale SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . KL/NAS AVIATION . Speciale FIRE WEATHER . Thompson HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi61 min Calm 69°F 1012 hPa65°F
TKPN6 4 mi43 min S 4.1 G 5.1 72°F 79°F1013 hPa67°F
NPXN6 17 mi61 min ENE 1 70°F 1014 hPa65°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi43 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 68°F1013.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi43 min S 6 G 7 71°F 69°F1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi38 minN 04.00 miFair with Haze68°F62°F81%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmN74NW5N8N9N8NE9N5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3NE6CalmNW4N3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE4Calm
2 days agoSE3E3CalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3W43CalmN65NW8NW8NW5N14
G20
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 02:27 AM EDT     5.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:18 AM EDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:22 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.64.55.15.14.53.42.31.20.3-0.3-0.10.92.13.13.84.13.83.12.21.30.60.10.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:44 AM EDT     Full Moon
Sun -- 01:57 AM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:48 AM EDT     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:30 PM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:52 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.94.64.84.63.82.71.70.7-0.1-0.30.31.42.53.33.83.83.32.51.60.90.300.61.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.