Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:26PM Monday December 9, 2019 8:29 AM EST (13:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:03PMMoonset 5:16AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 709 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E early this morning, then becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Tue night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 1 ft. Snow likely in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ300 709 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. An approaching warm front will lift to the north tonight. A cold front will then approach on Tuesday and slowly move across from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Arctic high pressure will then follow later in the week before another potential storm system arrives next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 091146 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 646 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cloudy, breezy and milder conditions are expected this morning, with periods of rain arriving during the day. Mild and rainy conditions will continue tonight into Tuesday morning, with colder temperatures returning later in the day. Some snow is expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly for areas south of Albany.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 646 AM EST . MRMS imagery is showing some disorganized areas of very light precip over the Adirondacks. NYS Mesonet shows temps close to freezing and model soundings suggest this precip could be in the form of freezing rain. Will continue Winter Weather Advisory for the western and southern Adirondacks through 8 AM, but any expected ice amounts will be just a trace and impacts should be very minimal (if any at all). In addition, some light rain is starting to lift northward into the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. A few spots remain near freezing so can't rule out some patchy freezing rain in these areas as well. Even in places where the air temps are above freezing, ground temps remain cold, so can't rule out some icing on the colder surfaces as well.

Elsewhere, IR satellite imagery just shows cloudy skies. Temperatures are variable early this morning depending on where winds have picked up. In places where a south to southeast breeze is blowing, temperatures are already in the middle to upper 30s. Meanwhile, areas seeing a light or calm wind are still in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Through the morning hours, temperatures will continue to rise, with sheltered areas taking the longest to warm up. All areas should be above freezing by mid to late morning, with the sheltered areas within the central and eastern Adirondacks taking the longest.

Although we may see some spottier light rain early in the day, steadier rainfall should be moving into the area by later this morning, as a weak wave of low pressure moves up along a coastal front near the mid Atlantic today. 3km HRRR and NAM show this precipitation moving northward, especially for areas east of the Hudson River during the mid to late morning hours. Additional rainfall for the entire area look to arrive this afternoon into this evening from the west, as a large storm system lifts across the Great Lakes, and southwest flow at low to mid levels allows for a period of warm advection/isentropic lift.

By late today, most of the region should be in the mid to upper 40s, although some stubborn parts of the Adirondacks may only reach the upper 30s to low 40s. South to southeast winds will be gusty today, especially across western New England, where channeled flow may allow for some gusts over 25 mph (especially by late in the day).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Low pressure will be lifting from the Great lakes towards Ontario and Quebec for tonight into Tuesday morning. Warm advection precip from this evening will continue into the first part of the overnight and have gone with categorical POPs for the entire area through midnight. Although the best forcing from this will shift away from the area by midnight, additional rainfall is expected due to the approach of the storm's cold front for later tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures should continue to rise this evening into tonight through the 40s. Temperatures should reach their max values just ahead of the front for Tuesday morning, with some spots in far southern areas topping out in the low 50s (40s elsewhere). See the Hydro section for details on how we expect this rainfall and warm temperatures to impact our HSA.

Behind the cold front, precip will be ending for the afternoon and temperatures will start to fall off for the rest of Tuesday, along with a gusty west to northwest wind. A few breaks in the clouds are possible by later in the day Tuesday, although it will still generally remain fairly cloudy.

Surface temps should fall quickly into 20s with temps aloft falling fast as well. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary that came through our earlier in the day will be stalling out offshore southeast of the area. A fast moving wave of low pressure will be lifting northward along the frontal boundary for late Tuesday night. This storm system, aided by a jet streak over the Northeast of nearly 190 kts, will allow for a period of steady snowfall across our southern areas for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snowfall rates don't look too excessive, but a steady, light snowfall may result in about 3 to 6 inches of snowfall across the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, NW CT, Taconics and Berkshires from about 3 AM through Noon Wednesday. There will be sharp northern gradient, and areas from the Capital Region on northward will likely see an inch or less. Any snowfall will be ending across southeastern areas by midday Wednesday. Some breaks in the clouds should finally occur, but temps will remain in the mid 20s to mid 30s for highs on Wednesday. Some lake effect snow showers may start to develop for Wednesday evening into Wednesday night thanks to chilly temps aloft (850 hpa temps of -15 to -18 C). These may initially impact the western Adirondacks but look to shift towards the western Mohawk Valley by late Wednesday night, as the flow becomes more northwesterly. A few inches of accumulation will be be possible with this band as it shifts across the area. Lows for the entire region look to be in the teens.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Active pattern with changeable weather.

Any lingering lake effect off of Lake Ontario diminishes as a large sprawling high builds in from the west Thursday. With flat flow aloft the high is expected to quickly shift eastward across New England Thursday night. Below normal temperatures both Thursday and Thursday night with readings running around 10 degrees below normal.

Guidance is in agreement developing a complex system impacting the region next weekend. However, there are differences amongst the models regarding the evolution of the system and how much interaction there will be between northern and southern energy and the cyclogensis potential. With the strength, timing and track of the system all in question at this time have run with high chance pops for Saturday into Sunday. Guidance does indicate the departing ridge should result cold air damming so precipitation types could be tricky at the onset. At this time, have snow mixing with and changing to rain Saturday with a transition back to rain/snow.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Clouds will lower across the area this morning as precipitation overspreads the region with widespread IFR conditions developing. A weak area of low pressure will move of the eastern seaboard as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes Region. With temperatures rising into the upper 30s to upper 40s today and remaining there tonight rain is expected across the area. The steady rain is not expected to taper off until very late in the TAF period. With the warm/mild air moving over the snowpack it will become foggy.

Southerly winds through the TAF period. The flow will pick up later in the day into the evening and will shift to the south-southwest as a cold front approaches from the west.

Low level wind shear will impact the area beginning this afternoon as a strong low level jet will moves across the region.

Outlook .

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of SHRA. SHSN . SN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of RA. SN. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact Chance of RA. SN.

HYDROLOGY. Although the past few days have been rather cold, temperatures will be rising above freezing across the entire area today. By later today, highs will range from the upper 30s over the Adirondacks to the upper 40s across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Temperatures will remain fairly steady or even slowly rise tonight with early day highs on Tuesday ranging from the the low 40s over the Adirondacks to the low 50s for southern areas. Temperatures will then sharply fall later Tuesday, with all areas back below freezing by Tuesday night.

In addition to these warming temperatures, periods of rain are expected for today through early Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will be highest across the higher terrain. Although valley areas around the Capital Region may see less than a half inch of rainfall, high terrain areas (especially across western New England and the Catskills) will see one to two inches of precipitation.

The combination of melting snow due to the warming temperatures and the rainfall will lead to significant rises on most rivers and streams. Although it may take a little while to warm the snowpack and for it to ripen, some runoff due to snowmelt is expected. Ensemble guidance suggests a few rivers (such as the Hoosic and Walloomsac) could reach minor flood stage by Tuesday.

As temperatures cool off, runoff should slow down for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some additional precipitation in the form of snow is expected for southern areas, but this will not have any immediate impact on rivers and streams. Another storm may bring more rain to the region for the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NYZ032- 033-042-082. MA . None. VT . None.

SYNOPSIS . Frugis NEAR TERM . Frugis SHORT TERM . Frugis LONG TERM . IAA AVIATION . IAA HYDROLOGY . Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi60 min Calm 34°F 1021 hPa31°F
TKPN6 4 mi60 min S 5.1 G 7
NPXN6 17 mi60 min SSE 1 33°F 1023 hPa30°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi66 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 44°F1020.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi60 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 40°F 41°F1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi37 minN 01.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%1020.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSW6SW3SW76S6
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S4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW654NW9NW6NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmS5S5SE5S9S73CalmCalmCalmW8W11NW8NW9NW6NW4W9NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalm3

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:52 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:32 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.12.31.40.80.30.10.61.72.73.43.94.13.83.12.21.40.70.30.30.91.92.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:15 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:21 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:22 AM EST     3.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:03 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:02 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:47 PM EST     3.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.51.710.50.20.312.12.93.53.83.83.32.51.710.40.20.51.32.22.83.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.