Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:11PM Friday October 18, 2019 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 9:21PMMoonset 11:46AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 744 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas around 2 ft this evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Tue night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 744 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the area tonight into Saturday, then to the east Saturday night. Tropical storm nestor is then forecast to track well south of the region Sunday into Sunday night. Weak high pressure follows for Monday before a frontal system moves across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure will then close out the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 182323
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
723 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
As high pressure builds into the region, winds will decrease and
clouds will finally break up tonight, with some areas of frost
forming late. High pressure will allow for dry conditions this
weekend, with mainly clear skies and temperatures running just a
little below normal. Dry and mild conditions are expected on
Monday before a frontal boundary returns some rain to the region
for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Clouds slow to erode but trends in satellite imagery show a
slow decrease in clouds coverage across the region. After
midnight, many areas should be mostly clear to clear. Winds are
still steady from the northwest but will diminish to near calm,
allowing temperatures to fall to around the current forecast.

So, frost expected and headlines will continue. Just minor
adjustments to sky cover and temperatures through the night.

Previous afd has a few more details and is below...

at the surface, a large area of high pressure will be
approaching from ontario and the upper ohio river valley. Drier
air working its way into the region should allow skies to clear,
although it may take the longest to clear across the
adirondacks and southern vermont. Winds will diminish as well
and the combination of clearing skies and decreasing wind should
allow temps to fall through the 40s and into the 30s. Some
areas of frost are possible for the capital region, mid hudson
valley and southern litchfield county, where the growing season
is technically still ongoing. A frost advisory is in effect for
these areas for late tonight. Although a heavy frost isn't
expected, the clearing should occur quick enough for frost to
form late tonight, which may end the season for any sensitive
vegetation. Can't rule out a few patches of fog as well in the
glens falls area as well, although this will ultimately depend
on how quickly clearing occurs.

Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s in the adirondacks
to the low to mid 30s elsewhere.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night
Dry and pleasant weather is expected through the entire short
term period.

Upper level ridging will build over the area for Saturday, with
the ridge axis shifting eastward across new england by Sunday.

Surface high pressure will be situated over the area for
Saturday, and shift offshore for Sunday.

As a result, skies look to be completely clear for Saturday into
Saturday night. Some clouds are possible for Sunday, but skies
will still generally be partly to mostly clear. The bulk of the
latest model and ensemble guidance suggests that the remains of
tc nestor should stay south east of the region, so aside from
some additional cloudiness, no impact is expected across our
area and any rainfall should remain over the southeast and mid
atlantic states.

Temps should reach the upper 40s to upper 50s for Saturday with
abundant sunshine in place. Good radiational cooling will drop
temps into the 30s for Saturday night and some frost is possible
once again. On Sunday, it should be a little milder with
southerly return flow, with expected highs in valley areas
reaching the mid to upper 50s. Lows on Sunday night will fall
into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Long term Monday through Friday
Ridge of high pressure to start the long term period is
expected along the atlantic seaboard. Should be rather nice mid
october day with above seasonable temperatures as highs range
from the low-mid 60s for valley locations to upper 50s across
the higher terrain.

Meanwhile, upstream will be a developing and deepening storm
across the central plains states. Moisture transport along and
ahead of the frontal boundary will slowly advect north-
northeastward overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. As global
models appear to have slowed down the onset, we too will slow
down the pops wx and have just our western zones with a slight
chance. Clouds increase as overnight lows will generally be in
the 40s.

Tuesday looks to be a rather damp day with periods of rainfall
as frontal system and moisture transport will be maximized
across the northeast corridor. Unlike our last storm, the
cyclogensis along the front appears to be less of a signal than
previous runs. Under clouds and periods of rainfall, high
temperatures not likely to get out of the 50s.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, global models differ a bit with
respect to just how fast the frontal zone passes through. A
couple waves along the frontal zone embedded within the upper
trough may slow down its forward progress a bit so we will keep
chance pops wx in the forecast at this time. MOS temperatures
are not too much different as we will follow with a blended
approach with lows generally in the 40s and highs into the 50s.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the ECMWF and ggem are in closer
agreement than the GFS with the extended influence of the
southeast CONUS ridge into the mid-atlantic and northeast. This
would reduce the chance for wet weather across the region along
with slightly milder weather. However, beyond the long term, a
pattern shift appears to be in the making with a colder shot of
air arriving... More on those details in future discussions.

Aviation 23z Friday through Wednesday
Clouds slow to erode this evening but deeper subsidence expected
around and after midnight, supporting better erosion of cloud
cover. Most areas will see a few clouds or skc by 10z-12z
Saturday morning. There could be some ifr visibilities in fog at
kgfl by 10z with near calm winds and temperatures reaching the
dew point. There could be some patch fog around kpou at the same
time but indicating just 6sm for a brief period.

Kpsf will have intervals of MVFR ceilings through about 04z
before clouds tend to become scattered. There could be scattered
clouds around 2500-3000 feet at kalb and kpsf between midnight
and 12z but should only be scattered. After about 12z-14z,
just a few clouds above 3000 feet in the entire region andVFR
conditions prevail through Saturday afternoon.

Northwest winds at around 10 kt this evening, with a few gusts
to 20 kt at kpsf, will diminish to less than 6 kt between
midnight and 12z. Winds remain northwest at 6 kt or less
through Saturday afternoon but could trend to east and southeast
at kgfl.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: high operational impact. Likely
ra.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Fire weather
Our entire region saw a soaking rainfall on Wednesday into
Thursday. Clouds will finally break up for tonight as high
pressure builds into the area from the west. Some dew or frost
formation is expected tonight with rh values back near 100
percent and winds decreasing below 5 mph in most spots.

Dry weather is expected over the weekend with no precipitation.

Rh values will fall to 50 to 60 percent each afternoon. West
winds will be around 5 mph on Saturday and southerly winds will
be around 5 mph for Sunday.

Hydrology
After the recent heavy rainfall, rivers and streams saw sharp
rises, but have finally crested on Friday. River and streams
levels will be falling tonight into the weekend, as no
additional precipitation is expected. River levels will continue
to drop or be steady early next week, with continued dry
weather on Monday. The next chance of rain will be with a
frontal boundary for Tuesday into Tuesday night, although exact
amounts are still uncertain at this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am edt Saturday for ctz013.

Ny... Frost advisory from 3 am to 9 am edt Saturday for nyz049-050-
052-053-059-060-064-065.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis nas
short term... Frugis
long term... Bgm
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi102 min SSW 2.9 50°F 1014 hPa39°F
TKPN6 4 mi60 min N 4.1 G 8.9 49°F 58°F1014.8 hPa37°F
NPXN6 17 mi102 min NW 11 53°F 1014 hPa41°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi60 min NNW 6 G 12 51°F 61°F1012.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi54 min N 9.9 G 12 51°F 60°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi19 minW 610.00 miOvercast49°F36°F61%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3S35SE10SE8SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     3.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:30 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:10 PM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.511.92.93.53.73.63.32.71.70.90.60.612.13.34.14.44.343.32.41.50.9

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:44 AM EDT     3.47 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:00 AM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:40 PM EDT     4.10 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:21 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:54 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.32.33.13.43.53.32.92.11.20.70.50.71.42.63.644.13.93.52.71.81.10.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.