Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:34AMSunset 8:30PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1033 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning. Chance of showers and tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Tstms likely in the evening. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1033 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front and the remnant low of barry then approach and slowly move through the region tonight and Thursday. High pressure will then remain centered over the southeast into the weekend. Another weak cold front moves slowly through the area Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kaly 171420
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1020 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage today, as a
cold front approaches from the north, and remnant moisture from
barry tracks across the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible. The front should settle south of the region Thursday,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures and decreasing chances for
showers. The front will then return during Friday as a warm
front, bringing oppressive heat and humidity through this
upcoming weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1020 am edt... 12z kaly sounding shows plenty of moisture
in place, with pwat values around 2.05 inches and a deep low
level warm layer, with high fzl levels around 14.5 kft,
promoting efficient rainfall and warm rain processes.

Latest mrms imagery shows a steady batch of rainfall is headed
from the lake ontario & tug hill regions towards the western
adirondacks for the next hour or two. Some locally heavy burst
of rain can be expected with this activity. Nys mesonet obs have
shown rainfall rates of up to a third of an inch occurring
within a 10 to 20 minute period, so defintely could be some
downpours with this activity. There is a decent westerly flow in
place, so heavy rainfall should move and not last too long over
one place, limiting the threat for impacts. This activity looks
to continue to slide eastward, reaching vermont towards noon.

Over the next few hours, most areas south of i-90 should remain
dry. However, as forcing from the north and west increases this
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms should begin to develop
and or build south and east. In addition, shortwave currently
located across the eastern ohio valley will continue tracking
east today, and will provide increased forcing for southern
areas by late afternoon. So, showers storms will become more
numerous later this afternoon for areas near and especially
south of the i-90 corridor. This same region will also
experience the best instability, as some small pockets of
clearing may develop, allowing for ml capes of 1000-1500 j kg in
some areas. 0-6 km bulk shear will generally be 25-30 kt,
although mid level lapse rates appear weak, generally 5-5.5
c km. SPC has placed southern areas within a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms, with isolated damaging wind gusts
possible. However, bigger threat continues to be the heavy rain
potential given pwats around 2", and also some possibility for
brief backbuilding training of cells across central and southern
areas, where wpc has maintained an area of slight risk for
excessive rainfall (mainly south of i-90 in ny ma). Recent
dryness should mitigate overall flash flood potential, but can
not rule out isolated instances of flash flooding of poor
drainage urban and low lying areas.

As for temperatures, will side closer to the warmer national
blend of models numerical output and ec mos, which suggests
lower mid 80s in most valley areas, except 85-90 across the mid
hudson valley, where some heat indices could briefly approach
the mid 90s. There is enough uncertainty in these areas as to
how long, and if, apparent temperatures (heat indices) reach the
mid 90s, therefore no heat advisories at this time. For the
remainder of the area, mainly mid 70s to lower 80s are
indicated.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Tonight, the main shortwave will be approaching southern areas
overnight, while a cold front slowly settles southward. Best
forcing looks to be across southern areas, where widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms should be ongoing through
midnight, before decreasing in coverage from west to east. The
threat for heavy rain will continue in these areas through
midnight, and additional isolated instances of damaging winds
within any more robust convection will remain possible during
this time as well. Farther north, isolated scattered showers
and thunderstorms may be ongoing closer to the actual cold front
across the southern adirondacks, upper hudson valley and
southern vt this evening, before decreasing in coverage toward
or after midnight as the front reaches the i-90 corridor.

Otherwise, warm and humid with areas of fog possible, with lows
mainly in the 60s to lower 70s.

Thursday, the front should continue settling south of the
region, as a moist but cooler air mass overspreads the region
from the northeast and east. Enough moisture may linger for some
spotty showers or drizzle across the region, with plenty of low
clouds persisting. Highs may reach 75-80 in valley areas,
perhaps warmer across the western mohawk valley and sw
adirondacks where breaks of Sun could develop, while eastern
areas may hold only in the lower 70s.

Thursday night-Friday night, low clouds and some spotty drizzle
could linger in some areas through Friday morning. Otherwise,
the frontal system should begin retreating north and east during
Friday. It remains uncertain how much mixing and heating occurs
in the wake of the warm front Friday afternoon, especially for
areas east of the hudson river and across the upper hudson
valley. For now, have indicated lower 90s within valley areas,
with 80s elsewhere, although there is some possibility for even
higher temperatures should the warm front pass through more
quickly. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
heat indices could reach the upper 90s to lower 100s for many
valley areas, so heat advisories will likely be needed, at least
for valley areas. Although mid level capping may prevent much
convection from occurring Friday afternoon, can not rule out
isolated scattered late day thunderstorms across the southern
adirondacks where elevated terrain sources may yield enough
lifting mechanism to trigger convection. There may be a better
chance for convection late Friday night, especially across
northern areas, as upstream convection from the great lakes
region could spill into these areas toward daybreak Saturday.

This will have to be watched very closely, as there should be
considerable elevated instability lingering through the night
along with steepening mid level lapse rates with an approaching
elevated mixed layer (eml). Lows Friday night may be hard
pressed to fall below 75 in many valley areas, with upper
60s lower 70s across higher terrain.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Heat headlines will likely be necessary Saturday and possibly Sunday
as well. There is an increasing consensus from sources of
guidance ensembles for upper troughing to build south out of se
canada and a cold front to cool off our region some time between
Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. The timing is uncertain but
strong thunderstorms are likely ahead of the cold front as there are
indications of considerable instability due to the heat ahead of the
front. There may be some steep midlevel lapse rates enhancing
instability as well and quite a sharp thermal and moisture boundary
for good low level forcing.

Highs Saturday solidly in the 90s with heat indices over 100 in some
areas. Highs in the 80s in higher terrain Saturday. Highs Sunday a
few degrees cooler than Saturday but still upper 80s to lower 90s
many areas with some mid 90s southern areas and 80s higher
elevations. Heat indices in the hudson valley from around the
capital region to mid hudson valley and NW ct could be in the mid to
upper 90s Sunday.

Including some isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the southern
adirondacks and areas bordering the eastern catskills in case there
is some terrain induced scattered activity within our unstable and
humid airmass. Better coverage of scattered thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon through Monday afternoon, depending on the timing of the
cold front. Then cooler and drier air Tuesday.

Highs Monday in the 80s but some 70s in higher elevations. Highs
Tuesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s but a few mid 80s southern
areas and lower to mid 70s higher terrain.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Area of showers affecting kalb and kgfl through about 15z-16z. More
isolated to scattered showers tracking toward kpsf and kpou and will
affect those areas through midday. Showers should be light enough so
thatVFR conditions are expected, although cannot totally rule
out a very brief period of MVFR.

Intervals of showers expected through the afternoon with intervals
of MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Then with some instability in the
afternoon, there are chances for thunderstorms. Including prob30 for
all TAF sites between 21z-00z. The timing of any thunder will
be adjusted once thunderstorms develop later today.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will decrease through the
evening and diminish to just showers. Including just vcsh at all taf
sites during the evening with mainlyVFR ceilings and visibilities.

Lingering low level moisture and clouds will result in ceilings and
visibilities to lower to MVFR by 06z and continue through daybreak
Thursday.

Winds will be light south at less than 10 kt through this afternoon,
then just variable at less than 6 kt this evening and near calm
tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: low operational impact. Isolated shra... Tsra.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread this afternoon
and evening, as a frontal system approaches from the north, and
remnant moisture from barry tracks across the area. Given the
tropical nature of the moisture, heavy rainfall in showers and
thunderstorms is likely as the precipitation shield slides south
through today and tonight. The front should settle south of the
region Thursday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures, before
surging back northward Friday, setting the stage for heat and
humidity into the upcoming weekend.

Rh will drop to 50-70 percent this afternoon, then climb to dropping
to 90-100 percent tonight. Rh should only fall to 65-75 percent
Thursday afternoon.

Winds will be south to southwest at 5-15 mph today, shifting
into the north to northeast at similar speeds tonight into
Thursday.

Hydrology
Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur across
the area today into tonight. This will be mainly due to the
remnants of barry lifting through the region, along with a cold
front approaching from the north. Showers could contain
localized heavy rainfall.

However, a mitigating factor for heavy rain is that most of the
region has been drier than normal during the past 30 days. Wpc
continues areas south of the i-90 corridor in ny and western
new england within a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with
the remainder of eastern new york western new england in a
marginal risk due to anomalous high pwats and some potential for
training of deeper convective cells. Any flooding concerns
through this period would likely be localized in urban poor
drainage and low lying areas.

Please visit our advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl
near term... Frugis kl
short term... Kl
long term... Nas
aviation... Nas
fire weather... Kl okeefe
hydrology... Kl okeefe


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TKPN6 4 mi50 min S 8 G 8.9 81°F 81°F1013.3 hPa75°F
NPXN6 17 mi50 min SSE 5.1 81°F 1014 hPa72°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi50 min SSW 7 G 9.9 1013.3 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
-12
PM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
S5
S6
SW7
G10
S5
G8
SW7
G10
S7
G11
S9
S9
G12
SW8
G12
SW6
G12
SW6
S4
G7
W3
W4
G7
SW2
SW3
SW3
SW5
SW3
SW5
G9
SW3
S6
G9
SW9
G12
1 day
ago
SW9
G16
SW11
G15
SW10
G16
SW10
G13
S11
G15
SW11
G14
SW9
SW5
G8
SW4
S5
SE3
S2
N2
N3
N3
N4
NE2
N4
N4
N3
NE1
SE4
SE5
S6
2 days
ago
W7
G11
N8
G11
W6
G14
NW8
G14
NW8
G15
NW8
G11
NW5
G14
NW8
G14
NW4
G8
NW4
G8
N5
G8
N5
N5
G8
N4
G8
N3
N4
N5
G9
N6
G9
N4
G7
N5
G9
N4
N3
N5
G8
NE6

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi27 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F70°F59%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrSW7
G16
SW6SW12
G16
SW135S7SW5S3SW4CalmCalmS3SE4SE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalm3SW6SW3W6
1 day ago53CalmSW4--N6NE7NE6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3SW6S7
2 days agoW9W11
G15
NW9N12
G19
N9NW7NW7NW5W3NW6NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm43SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tivoli
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:50 AM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:36 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:22 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:40 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
344.64.84.43.62.61.70.80.10.10.81.82.83.53.93.83.32.51.710.50.41.1

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Kingston Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:20 AM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:06 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:52 PM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
3.34.14.54.43.82.921.10.4-00.31.22.233.53.73.42.71.91.30.70.40.61.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.