Friday, January17, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Saugerties, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:53PM Friday January 17, 2020 11:46 AM EST (16:46 UTC) Moonrise 12:55AMMoonset 12:40PM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 945 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
.gale warning in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow in the afternoon. Vsby less than 1 nm in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..W winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 945 Am Est Fri Jan 17 2020
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds today followed by a frontal system expected to impact the area Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure builds in behind a cold front Sunday and Monday. The high settles across the region Tuesday and remains through the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugerties village, NY
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location: 42.07, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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FXUS61 KALY 171526 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1026 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

SYNOPSIS. Much colder today and tonight with mainly clear skies. A fast moving winter storm will bring moderate to heavy accumulating snow Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, lingering into Sunday for some of the high terrain. Continued cold and mainly dry for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 10 am, The wind chill advisory for northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties was allowed to expire at 10 am. Very cold day despite abundant sunshine with brisk conditions making it feel even colder. Winds will diminish somewhat by late in the day as high pressure builds in from the west. Only looking at highs from the single digits across the southern Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains to the lower/mid 20s in the mid Hudson Valley into portions of northwestern Connecticut. These temperatures are 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Tonight, good radiational cooling for much of the night with the high overhead and clear skies. Will continue to go below blended guidance for lows and closer to MOS values, as 2m temps that are in the blend appear too warm. If clouds ahead of the next system get in faster than forecast, lows could be a bit warmer. Temps may tend to rise a bit toward daybreak, especially west of the Hudson Valley.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Winter Storm Watch issued for the southern Adirondacks, Mohawk Valley, Lake George Saratoga Region, southern Vermont, western Massachusetts, and northern Litchfield County Saturday afternoon into Saturday night/Sunday .

Focus is on a quick moving winter storm that will bring a period of moderate to heavy accumulating snow to the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, with lingering lake effect/upslope snowfall over the high terrain into Sunday. A negatively tilted midlevel trough will be ejecting from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast Saturday into Saturday night. Forcing for ascent ahead of this system appears excellent from a few different perspectives. First, the track of the low level circulation from the lower Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley favors a period of strong isentropic lift, with 30-40 kt winds on the 285-290K surfaces crossing the pressure surfaces 15Z Sat through 00Z Sun. Second, strong DCVA will occur ahead of the midlevel vort max. Third, the poleward exit region of a strong upper jet will become favorably placed over our region. The cold and dry antecedent airmass should moisten rather quickly with this strong ascent, and despite the westward track of the surface low, will favor snow as the dominant p-type for this event. So, it appears snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be common at the onset of this event from 18Z Sat to 03Z Sun. Strong south to southeast flow at 925 mb will favor orographic enhancement over the southern and southeastern Adirondacks and foothills, such that snowfall rates in excess of an inch will be possible.

After 03Z Sunday, there may be a rather abrupt end to the snowfall along and south of I-88/I-90, especially in the valleys, as the low level flow turns southwesterly (downsloping off the Catskills) and midlevel dry air punches in. Snow will likely continue across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens due to upsloping, and eventually it will transition into more of a lake effect event for the western Adirondacks late Saturday night into Sunday as low level winds align out of the west and surface to 850 delta T values fall to -15 to -20C. The synoptic and lake effect/upslope components were treated as the same event from headline purposes, with the Winter Storm Watch for the western Mohawk Valley, western Adirondacks, and southern Greens extended through the day Sunday, while the watch end Saturday night for the remainder of the zones. Best confidence for reaching warning criteria is across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens where double digit snowfall totals will be likely. Note that a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for southern Litchfield County in collaboration with surrounding WFOs, and additional advisories will likely be necessary with the next forecast package this afternoon.

Temperatures will actually rise Saturday night to near/above freezing from the Capital District on south, which should help snow removal efforts. Some rain showers may mix in over the Mid Hudson Valley/Litchfield Hills at this time. Temps during the day Sunday will remain rather steady with breezy conditions developing in the cold advection in the wake of this system.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. With continued cyclonic flow in place and an upper level trough over the Northeast, some lingering upslope/lake enhanced snow showers will continue for Sunday night across the higher terrain of the western Adirondacks and southern Vermont. Any additional snow accumulation looks to be an inch or less. Elsewhere, it looks dry with sky cover decreasing towards partly to mostly clear with a diminishing wind. Lows should be in the single digits and teens.

With the low to mid level winds shifting more out of the north for Monday, any additional lake effect snow looks to be centered more across western and central New York, which should keep mainly dry conditions for Monday across our area. However, another upper level shortwave passing within the trough aloft will shift the flow and return some light lake effect snow showers for western areas for Monday night into Tuesday. Outside of this, it will continue to be dry and chilly, with just some passing clouds. Daytime highs on both Monday and Tuesday will only be in the teens and 20s, and lows will be single digits, with some below zero readings across northern high terrain areas.

Strong high pressure will pass across the area for Wednesday into Thursday. This should end any lake effect activity and skies look to be fairly clear. After another cold day on Wednesday, temperatures should start to moderate towards Thursday, as a light southerly flow returns to the area. Overnight lows will remain cold thanks to the snow cover, light winds and clear skies, with single digits and teens for most of the region.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period.

IR satellite imagery shows that most of the upslope clouds have dissipated and skies are basically clear for the TAF sites. Can't rule out a few patchy cumulus near KPSF, otherwise, clear skies are expected through the day today and into this evening. Some high clouds will increase tonight, with sct-bkn high level clouds by late tonight.

Decent pressure gradient in place will continue to allow for gusty winds through the daytime hours today. West-northwest winds will be 10 to 15 with some gusts of 20 to 25 kts at times. These winds will finally diminish to 10 kts or less for this evening into tonight.

Outlook .

Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. No hydrological problems are anticipated. A widespread moderate to heavy snowfall is expected Saturday into Saturday night with lingering lake effect and upslope snow over the higher terrain on Sunday. QPF will range from around a third of an inch over parts of the Hudson Valley to around an inch for portions of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Temperatures will trend colder and mainly below freezing into early next week, which should allow ice to expand and thicken on area waterways.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for CTZ001. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for CTZ013. NY . Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for NYZ039>043-050-083-084. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for NYZ032-033-038-082. MA . Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for MAZ001-025. VT . Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for VTZ015. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for VTZ013-014.

SYNOPSIS . IAA/Thompson NEAR TERM . IAA/Thompson SHORT TERM . Thompson LONG TERM . Frugis AVIATION . Frugis HYDROLOGY . Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 4 mi76 min WSW 1.9 18°F 1039 hPa-5°F
TKPN6 4 mi46 min 1039.8 hPa
NPXN6 17 mi76 min N 4.1 18°F 1039 hPa-0°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 74 mi46 min 1036.5 hPa (+3.1)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi58 min NNW 11 G 16 20°F 40°F1036.2 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY30 mi53 minN 12 G 1610.00 miFair21°F-5°F31%1038 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPOU

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN46W5SW6W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmN3CalmNW5Calm3S45SW11W18
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2 days agoCalmW5SW7W4CalmNW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE4SW3CalmSW5SW10W7SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Tivoli, Hudson River, New York
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Tivoli
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:18 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:39 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:51 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:28 PM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.3-0.10.71.92.93.643.93.32.31.40.70.20.10.51.52.53.33.73.73.22.31.4

Tide / Current Tables for Kingston Point, Hudson River, New York
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Kingston Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:48 AM EST     -0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:45 AM EST     3.80 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:00 AM EST     Last Quarter
Fri -- 11:40 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:21 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:58 PM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.30.21.22.33.13.73.83.42.61.70.90.40.10.20.91.92.83.33.53.32.61.81

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.