Sunday, July5, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Plain, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 9:23PM Sunday July 5, 2020 3:06 PM EDT (19:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:13PMMoonset 5:29AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi-michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 1017 Am Edt Sun Jul 5 2020
Rest of today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 knots veering east after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast wind 5 knots veering south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves less than 1 foot. The water temperature off michigan city is 76 and at st. Joseph is 50 degrees.
LMZ043 Expires:202007052200;;357984 FZUS53 KIWX 051417 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1017 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ043-046-052200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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location: 42.07, -86.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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FXUS63 KIWX 051648 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1247 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 1247 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Mostly sunny and hot with afternoon highs 90 to 95. Otherwise, expect a hot week with highs in the 90s. Heat indices could reach near 100 degrees Tuesday through Thursday. There are low chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms late week.

SHORT TERM. (Today and Tonight) Issued at 451 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

Generally quiet weather today into tonight, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat indices could reach into the mid to upper 90s in a few spots, but most locations will see heat indices close to the temperature. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon, though it will be very isolated given drier air and weak lapse rates. Would not be surprised if nothing developed at all. Best chances would be west of I 69 along the lake breeze and along our southern CWA border. Areas of fog developed overnight with lingering moisture, mostly clear skies, calm winds, and haze from fireworks. Most visibilities were between 1-3 miles as of this writing, with the exception of a few dense patches near Lake Michigan and near Warsaw, IN (less than 1 mile). Expect this will diminish by mid morning. Have issued a special weather statement to cover this hazard.

Partly to mostly clear skies are expected overnight, with lows in the 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 451 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

The main focus of the long term is the heat, with high temperatures Tuesday into Thursday climbing into the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices are still forecast to be within a few degrees of the max temperatures, with a few spots reaching a maximum of 100F Friday into the weekend we'll "cool down" slightly. meaning in the upper 80s and low 90s, which may seem very cool by the time we get through the middle of the week! Still on the threshold of advisory criteria, but it's a little early for headlines- especially because it will depend on cloud cover/precipitation and how much moisture we can get into the area.

Generally low confidence in the precipitation forecast for the long term. We'll be on the periphery of the upper level ridge Monday, when a shortwave swings through the area towards the late afternoon. Thinking the best chances for precipitation will remain south of the CWA, but did include some slight chances along our southern border. We could see a few isolated cells on the lake breeze, but left that out for now. Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon will be our next chances for precipitation, and models are all over the place. The ECMWF confines pops to the late afternoon on both days, whereas other models have precipitation through the entire period. Tailored forecast to the ECMWF based on our current drier trend.

Even lower confidence for Thursday into the weekend with significant differences among the models with respect to the strength/placement/evolution of various larger-scale features, specifically the large upper level low off the southeastern CONUS, the ridge expanding from the southwestern CONUS, and the other upper low traversing the Canadian prairie. The Canadian low will at some point bring a cold front through our forecast area along with precipitation chances, but the models disagree with respect to how strong the front will be and the timing (ECMWF much slower/weaker; GFS progressive and deeper). If the ECMWF is right, expect Thursday into Friday night to be dry, and the front to move through Saturday. The GFS has precipitation generate ahead of the main front Thursday (in our area), then brings the front through Friday. Another potent little wave follows in the wake of this low, and that complicates things for Sat/Sun. Kept consensus 20-50% pops for now.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

VFR through the period under the influence of ridging sfc and aloft entrenched across the Great Lakes. Remnant outflow bubble from yesterdays storms has gutted much of the area and outside lake breeze through sw MI the chance for a shower or storm this aftn.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IN . NONE. MI . NONE. OH . NONE. LM . NONE.

SYNOPSIS . T SHORT TERM . MCD LONG TERM . MCD AVIATION . T

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi67 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 80°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.0)
45168 24 mi27 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 77°F1 ft1015.7 hPa67°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi37 min NW 6 G 6 77°F
45170 34 mi27 min 7.8 G 9.7 77°F 77°F1 ft73°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI5 mi74 minVar 410.00 miFair85°F66°F55%1015.7 hPa
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI23 mi72 minNW 710.00 miFair85°F66°F53%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBEH

Wind History from BEH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4--E6NE3N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmW7NW74NW7
1 day agoNW66NW64CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmS4S334NW6
2 days ago4N6353CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4NW4NW5NW553

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.