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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 405 Pm Est Thu Nov 30 2023
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the evening, then shifting east overnight. A few gusts to 25 knots early evening. A chance of rain late in the evening, then rain becoming likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet this evening.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Rain. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of rain overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 45 degrees and at michigan city is 44 degrees.

LMZ005
No data

FXUS63 KIWX 302337 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 637 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 635 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

A low pressure system moves in late tonight into Friday bringing cooler temperatures and widespread rain chances. The weekend will be seasonable with additional rain showers Saturday night into Sunday. Chances for rain showers persist into early to mid next week, with potential for snow to mix in at times.



SHORT TERM
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

We stay relatively seasonable this evening with temperatures in the 40s and winds gusting up to 25 mph (primarily southeast of Fort Wayne). An area of low pressure advances northeast out of Oklahoma tonight as a cold front sweeps southeast across the upper Midwest. These two features bring rain chances late tonight and especially into Friday morning. Between 00Z to 06Z Friday, rain should remain light and scattered, before increasing in coverage and becoming more widespread between 09-18Z Friday as the low approaches. As the cold front arrives early Friday morning, it should turn stationary somewhere in or just slightly outside of the northwest portion of our CWA. The placement of the frontal boundary will determine highs for the day; southern Lower Michigan will stay in the lower 40s while north central Indiana will warm to near 50 degrees. QPF with this system should yield around half to three quarters of an inch by Saturday morning. With temperatures above freezing, any snow or mixed precipitation that falls within this system will stay north and west of our forecast area.

LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

Additional precipitation chances persist through the long term forecast range as a series of 500 mb shortwaves pass through the CWA. During the day Saturday, it will be dry. However, as the backside of the low moves through on Saturday afternoon, another wave of precipitation develops along a 500 mb shortwave that moves in from the southwest. We will see mostly rain late Saturday night into Sunday, as temperatures will be above freezing in the upper 30s, but some snowflakes could mix in at times. Some snow showers (perhaps lake effect in nature) will be possible as well Monday and Tuesday as a quick clipper system moves through. At this time, confidence is very low in the timing and location of any snowfall.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

VFR conditions at the TAF sites this evening will deteriorate to IFR/LIFR overnight into Friday as a low pressure system moves into the area. This system will bring widespread rain to both terminals late tonight into Friday morning. Otherwise, some shower activity is possible later this evening as a weak wave ahead of the main system lifts northward. The more impactful conditions develop late tonight/early Fri AM and persist through much of the day as moisture transport increases and the low shifts into central IL. Models suggest a lull in precipitation as the dry slot shifts in aloft (particularly at KFWA), however it's possible we see patchy drizzle with the low levels still remaining fairly moist. Opted to keep in VCSH with a prob30 to account for the potential drizzle (and 2SM visibility and 400 ft ceilings).

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

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Northern Indiana, IN,