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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI

June 25, 2024 1:56 PM EDT (17:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 9:24 PM
Moonrise 11:33 PM   Moonset 8:55 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ043 NEw Buffalo Mi To St Joseph Mi- 1113 Am Edt Tue Jun 25 2024

.small craft advisory in effect until 2 pm edt this afternoon - .

Rest of today - Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots. Rain ending by early afternoon. Chances for Thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.

Tonight - West winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature at st. Joseph is 73 degrees.

No data

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Plain, MI
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Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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499 FXUS63 KIWX 251012 AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 612 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024


- There is a slight to marginal risk for severe weather today.
One round will be this morning between 7 am and 12 pm EDT, then the second, be the 3 pm to midnight EDT. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats, but hail and localized flooding are possible. Confidence is medium in severe weather occurring, greatest confidence with the first round of storms.

- High temperatures will be in the 80s, with some locations largely along and west of Interstate 69, especially south of US 30, will see high temperatures in the upper 80s with heat indices possibly reaching the mid to upper 90s. Confidence is low because of cloud cover and precipitation chances.

- Dry conditions return later Wednesday into early Friday afternoon, with highs in the 70s and 80s.

Issued at 532 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Well this is certainly going to be a low to medium (at best)
confidence forecast, with model guidance all over the place in terms of what`s ongoing now, and then how we expect things to evolve all day in terms of storms.

The first (and potentially only) round of storms, currently over WI/North-Central Lake MI as of this writing, will likely move in from the north between 7 am-11 am EDT. Storm motion will be southeast around 60 mph, with damaging winds and heavy rain the main threat. Hail is also possible. Storms are currently strong to severe, but are expected to weaken as they reach our area later this morning...but by how much? I am always hesitant to poo-poo a severe risk with an MCV around, as they tend to have their own environment and can be full of surprises. Have categorical pops, particularly in the northeast (in line with the 5z HRRR/5-7z RAP). The latest HRRR and NAMNest models bring in likelihood of precipitation across the entire northern CWA for the morning (vs confined to eastern positioned RAP). This was a flip flop back to the earlier model solutions by the HRRR...so not sure how well to trust that.

If the HRRR is correct...the line/MCV drops southeastward through our CWA throughout the day, possibly intensifying later in the afternoon as it gets south of US 24.

If the RAP solution (or something like it is correct), the morning round will be less extensive, confined to NE IN/NW OH/SE Lower MI, exiting (or diminishing) by the afternoon. It then generates a second round of convection west over IL and that spreads eastward along the slowly meandering cold front (3 pm-midnight EDT).
Confidence is much lower with regards to the second round of storms, mainly because we don`t know how the incoming MCV will impact our environment. What kind of boundaries will be around? Will the subsidence behind the exiting morning wave limit any development afterwards? Will round 1 completely dissipate and limit cloud cover, making it warmer and possibly more unstable for the afternoon? More questions than answers...

The bottom line is...pay attention today for watches and warnings.
SPC has our area in either a slight/marginal risk for today, and I feel that`s reasonable. Just with the ambient synoptic environment we have about 30 knots of bulk effective shear, perhaps as much as 1000-2000 J/kg of surface cape (upwards of that in MUCAPE), and mid level lapse rates of 7-8 C/KM. Dewpoints look to be in the upper 60s and low 70s (some models had low to mid 70s, which is not totally insane given there are observations with those values in western IL as of this writing. LCL values are on the lower end as well. I wouldn`t be surprised if we had an isolated tornado given ll moisture and the presence of an MCV, but I`d expect the predominant hazards with any severe storms to be damaging winds and heavy rainfall/localized flooding.

Given the chances for showers and storms, and the fact that models are already seriously underdoing the cloud cover (thanks to the overnight storms over IL that were not captured well by model guidance), opted to lower high temperatures slightly to be around the mid-upper 80s. With the humidity comes higher heat indices...which look to be around 90 degrees for most. The best chance of seeing values closer to 95-100 degrees (our advisory criteria) would be south and west, as they have time to warm up before the MCV and associated precipitation/cloud cover arrive (Especially assuming the RAP is right, as the better cloud cover is going to be east). Held off on advisory headline for now given tremendous uncertainty, and mentioned in the HWO.

Last but not least in regards to the immediate short term, with the MCV and ongoing convection on the lake, expect we`ll have a higher swim risk than what it appears to be based on wave heights alone. In addition to wave heights being higher near thunderstorms, water level fluctuations are occurring from the mid lake storm pressure perturbations. Calumet Harbor IL (southern Lake MI) dropped suddenly by 1 ft, Port Inland MI (northern Lake MI) by a half of a foot. I expect this to intensify as the bowing segment continues to dive southeastward. Outside of that, winds will be south-southwest, with waves climbing to around 2-3 feet. This is favorable for strong longshore and structural currents (where piers are present). Rip currents are also possible within the sandbars, especially if we see those continued water level fluctuations into the morning and afternoon hours. For today, have kept the moderate swim risk for Berrien County, MI and have La Porte in a low swim risk. However, depending on how things evolve with the incoming storms-an upgrade to high swim risk for at least Berrien may be warranted (perhaps upgrade to moderate for La Porte). Water level fluctuations from seiches/meteotsunamis can cause sudden dangerous current development- despite lower wave heights.

Beyond the short term, expect Wednesday to feature additional chances for showers and storms associated with an incoming mid level trough, however where the best potential is will depend on how far the cold front from today`s storms makes it southeast before stalling and (possibly) lifting back northward. It`s possible we see a period of heavy rain Tuesday night into Wednesday as the LLJ pumps moisture up over the front. Severe weather is not expected, but could see some ponding on the roads or minor flooding if the front stalls and storms redevelop along it.

Dry conditions return for mid-late week, with highs in the 70s and 80s. The next chances for rain will be Friday afternoon into Saturday.

Issued at 606 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A line of thunderstorms is racing southeast along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Wind gusts of 60 mph have been recorded.
A gradual weakening trend is anticipated but this has not been observed quiet yet. Upstream observations will be monitored closely and amendments will be made to KSBN as needed.

This complex has a greater likelihood of weakening by the time it reaches KFWA, but this will need to be monitored closely as well.

Additional storms are possible this evening, resulting in PROB30s for now. Morning storms could either squash or enhance the evening risk.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 2 mi57 minSSW 14G23 76°F 29.81
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 10 mi47 minSSW 18G23 74°F 71°F3 ft29.8266°F
45168 24 mi47 minSSW 16G23 74°F 72°F2 ft29.7666°F
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 25 mi47 minSSE 18G21 76°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 33 mi37 minWSW 12G16 76°F 29.7567°F
45170 34 mi47 min 74°F 2 ft29.81
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 46 mi77 minSSW 8.9G12 75°F 29.81

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI 5 sm64 minSSW 0810 smOvercast77°F66°F69%29.79
KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI 23 sm22 minS 13G1910 smOvercast77°F68°F74%29.77
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Wind History graph: BEH
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Northern Indiana, IN,

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