Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Tonight and Saturday: The risk for severe weather has ended for tonight. Storms have lost the instability as evident by the latest lightning trends, and are now reduced to mainly rain showers. These rain showers will persist overnight into Saturday morning as an upper level trough to the west will still provide widespread forcing for ascent, but precipitation chances end from west to east on Saturday as cooler and drier air move across the region in the wake of a cold front.

One change to the forecast was to add some sprinkles to the forecast for areas along and inland from the lakeshore. Forecast soundings show stratus with a narrow area of instability, so could have some of the clouds produce light precipitation.

Sunday through Friday: Seasonably cool temperatures will last through the weekend, with highs on Sunday struggling to reach 50. A weak shortwave will move across the region, and bring small chances (20 percent) for a few rain showers. On Sunday night high pressure will build in, leading to clear skies and light winds, with overnight lows falling below freezing by Monday morning. Mondays highs will rebound to near 50s.

Looking ahead, high pressure will move eastward, and return flow will bring spring-like temperatures back across the area. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 70s, mid 70s Wednesday, and near 80 by Thursday.

As for precipitation chances, there is a small chance (15 to 20 percent) a boundary could spark a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. More widespread rain chances (50 to 60 percent) return late Thursday into Friday and a larger storm system approaches from the west. The long range machine learning guidance does indicate this system could produce severe weather across the central CONUS, but that is too far out in the future to have much confidence in when or where.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 619 AM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Existing TAFs were on track overall, requiring only minor adjustments. Rain and embedded thunderstorms continue to gradually track east ahead of a cold front, which is currently exiting Illinois. Wind becomes northwesterly behind this and breezy. Cannot rule out brief period of IFR ceilings on either side of this front, but MVFR or fuel-alternate represents most of the upstream observations. Look for isolated showers near KSBN off the lake late this afternoon as an upper-level vort max rotates through. A return to VFR is anticipated as high pressure settles in.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ043-046.