Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fair Plain, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Warm advection reestablishes itself across the area today as surface high pressure shifts eastward. As such, a theta-e plume reaches the area this afternoon and tonight and this helps set up a potential severe weather chance as dew points reach back into the 60s during the afternoon. The atmosphere appears capped according to NAM and HRRR bufkit soundings across the area during the daytime. Finally, the moist advection reaches the area around 21 to 3z, which may be enough to initiate some showers and perhaps storms, but most models hold things off until after 00z, maybe even until closer to 6z as the cold front arrives with more succinct forcing. Instability does begin to wane in the boundary layer after sunset, but elevated instability does appear to remain into the overnight ahead of the cold front closer to 6z. HRRR soundings are fairly moist and so perhaps heavy rain that leads to flooding could be an issue. The 18Z NAMNest was showing a slowed squall line that hanged out Lk MI.
While that's an outlier, slower storm motions in this environment could lead to flooding. Gusty to damaging wind and hail also appear possible, although the moist environment would probably lead to melting hail as opposed to severe hail within an environment less conducive to stronger updrafts to loft hail.

Rain and maybe storms appear to linger in areas east of IN-15 Sunday morning before departing. 20 to 30 mph gusts will be possible behind the cold front Sunday morning as the gradient takes time to relax and the low level jet departs. A much cooler and drier air mass is around Sunday and continues Monday with highs in the 70s and dew points in the 40s and 50s as surface high pressure moves through.

With the upper low still centered across southern Canada, spokes of vorticity continue to pinwheel around and look to affect the area starting Tuesday. There appears to be weak, about 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, instability as surface dew points only just reach 60 degrees with a weak theta-e plume swinging through. Effective shear only briefly achieves 30 kts so this appears to be more of a general thunder type event. Another, more vigorous shortwave passes through the Lower Great Lakes later Tuesday into Wednesday and this brings another chance for showers and storms. The question with this one will be if we can get the warm front north of the area in time as by 00z Wed evening, the ECMWF is only just doing so. At this point, the GFS and ECMWF have different timing and weaker instability across the area so we'll have to see how the NAM handles it when it gets closer to get an understanding on instability.

Thursday is a transition day back to drier weather that continues through Friday before more unsettled weather returns for one or both of the weekend days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Drier weather continues with VFR conditions through the day. A very moist column of air begins to move into the area after sunset, but it'll likely wait until 3 to 5z (6z and there after at FWA)
to get adverse flight conditions in, probably along with thunderstorm chances.

We do see gusty winds reaching 20 to 25 kts this afternoon before relaxing this evening.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.