Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Green Harbor-Cedar Crest, MA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:13PM Thursday December 12, 2019 2:16 PM EST (19:16 UTC) Moonrise 5:46PMMoonset 8:16AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ231 Cape Cod Bay- 117 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
This afternoon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Sun through Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow and rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 117 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Large high pres will build across the waters, then will push offshore tonight. Low pres will approach from the southwest late Fri and Fri night, then moves across the waters Sat. A cold front crosses the waters Sunday, followed by another high pres system Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Green Harbor-Cedar Crest CDP, MA
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location: 42.08, -70.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 121825 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 125 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS.

High pressure will bring dry, cold conditions across the region today and tonight. The high moves east of the region Friday, bringing the risk for scattered light precipitation across western Massachusetts and northern Connecticut, which may begin as a very light wintry mix. Temperatures will gradually increase Friday night as winds become onshore. Low pressure will bring mainly rain Friday night and Saturday which will fall heavily at times. Dry and blustery conditions move in on Sunday, then colder air arrives Monday. Another system brings snow to start Monday night, then a wintry mix that will change to rain across the coastal plain, but remaining mixed rain and/or snow well inland into Tuesday. Dry and cold conditions return during Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/.

1 PM Update

Mostly clear skies across the region with some mid to high level clouds moving in.

Near term forecast remains on track with temperatures warming to the upper 20s across the Berkshires and the lower 30s elsewhere.

Previous Discussion .

Large high pressure building into the region today will result in sunny skies but cold temperatures. Temps should top out between 30 and 35 across most locations with some upper 20s in the high terrain.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. * Risk for very light icing across parts of the interior Friday with the greatest threat across the CT River Valley

Tonight .

High pressure overhead this evening will allow for light winds and mainly clear skies this evening. This should result in temperatures quickly falling after sunset across the typically coldest outlying locations. Temps quickly drop into the teens this evening in many areas with light winds and snow cover. However, temps should level off or rise after midnight as clouds begin to increase from the west. This in response to high pressure moving off the coast and warm air advection commencing aloft.

Friday .

High pressure will continue to move east and away from the region as shortwave energy approaches from the southwest. This will induce a modest southwest LLJ and moisture return. The best forcing/moisture will reside across interior MA and CT, where some scattered light precipitation may develop. Ptype might be initially cold enough for a bit of very light snow across parts of the interior. However, warming aloft and limited saturation for ice nucleation may result in pockets of light freezing rain/freezing drizzle across the interior if temps remain below freezing for a time. The greatest risk for this will be across the CT River Valley, where high resolution model data indicates very light northerly surface winds persisting. Based on pattern recognition, guidance temps are likely too warm and it may take some time for temps to get above freezing even by Friday afternoon. If any icing occurs amounts will be very light, but it only takes a very small amount to create for hazardous travel. Something will have to examine more closely with latter model runs.

Meanwhile, south to southeast low level flow should allow the coastal plain to reach into the 40s. Mainly dry weather should also persist across eastern MA/RI for much of the day, although can not rule out a spot shower or two late.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Highlights .

* Temperatures will moderate Friday night as low pressure brings the potential for heavy rain & localized flooding on Saturday. Flooding risks may be increased with the snow melt.

* Leftover rain and/or snow showers linger well inland early Sunday. Strong northwest winds Sunday, especially in coastal areas with gusts up to 40 kts. Gale headlines will likely be needed across the waters.

* Dry and seasonably cold conditions Monday

* Next system approaches Monday night & Tuesday . Another round of snow before mixing with or changing to rain, but confidence remains low. Details .

Friday night and Saturday .

***Heavy Rain and Flood Potential on Saturday***

Low pressure exits the Maritimes Fri evening as low pressure develops across the mid Atlc states or near the Delmarva peninsula. Expect an increasing E-SE wind flow, which will bring deep moisture across the region. Temperatures will start off in the 30s well inland to 40-45 along the coast Fri evening, then the onshore winds will bring rising readings through the remainder of the night.

00Z models continue to signal a strong surge of deep layer moisture working up the coast. 00Z GEFS ensembles showing the potential of PWATs up to 3 to 4 SD above normal during Saturday across the coastal plain (1 to 1.5 inches). Overall model blend suggests QPF values from 0.5 inches across the CT valley ranging to 0.75 to 1 inch further E, highest along the immediate coast from 12Z-18Z Saturday, with another 0.1 to 0.3 inches Saturday afternoon. So, with this influx of heavy rainfall along with snowmelt thanks to the milder temperatures, the potential remains high for urban and poor drainage flooding especially across central and eastern areas. Will also monitor the potential for river level rises as well.

Expect SE winds to increase during the day especially across eastern areas and along the coast, with gusts up to 20 to 30 mph Saturday morning through around midday before briefly diminishing.

With the mild wind flow in place, expect temps on Saturday to top off in the mid-upper 40s well inland ranging to the mid 50s across the coastal plain.

Saturday night and Sunday .

***Strong winds Sunday***

Low pressure exits to northern New England Saturday night, then to the Maritimes and Newfoundland during Sunday. Rain will exit from south to north Sat night, though could see a mix with snow across the E slopes of the Berkshires after midnight. With the diminishing moisture, QPF amounts will decrease so there will be only light snow accumulations there.

Skies will become partly to mostly sunny across the coastal plain during the afternoon, while clouds linger further inland. With the low deepening across the Maritimes, down to around 980 hPa late Saturday night and Sunday, westerly winds will increase. Gusts will increase to 30 to 40 mph mainly across the higher inland terrain and along the coast. Temps will top off in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the higher terrain ranging to the upper 40s across the coastal plain. With the gusty winds, though, wind chills will be in the mid-upper 20s inland to the 30s elsewhere.

Expect strongest wind gusts across the coastal waters, so gale warnings remain likely.

Monday through Wednesday .

Progressive mid level steering pattern remains in place across the region, so will see changing weather conditions continue.

A mainly dry cold front moves offshore late Sunday night, so will see another surge of cold air working across the region to start off the work week. Highs on Monday will only reach the upper 20s to mid 30s well inland and across the higher terrain to the upper 30s to around 40 along the coast.

Another weather system will approaches Monday night, with another shot of snow to start, then milder air will start to work in during Tuesday which should cause the snow to mix with sleet and snow, then eventually rain. However, this far out, timing and track of the low and precipitation potential is still in question.

For now, looks like the precipitation should taper off late Tuesday night into Wednesday with continued cold temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Forecaster Confidence Levels .

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Friday/ .

Today . High confidence in VFR conditions with westerly winds gradually becoming southerly. Wind speed continue to diminish as the high builds in overhead.

Tonight . High confidence. Mainly VFR conditions, but some MVFR cigs may arrive across parts of the interior toward daybreak.

Friday . Moderate to high confidence. MVFR to IFR conditions spreading in across interior MA & CT with scattered light precipitation expected to develop. It may be cold enough for some light snow and/or freezing drizzle. Greatest risk for freezing drizzle would be across the BAF and BDL terminals. Meanwhile, across eastern MA and RI VFR to marginal MVFR conditions expected with light rain spreading in.

KBOS Terminal . High confidence in TAF through 15Z Friday. Moderate confidence after 15Z.

KBDL Terminal . High confidence in TAF through 15Z Friday. Moderate confidence after 15Z.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, FZRA likely, patchy BR.

Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA, patchy BR.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. RA likely.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

MARINE. Short Term /through Friday/ .

Today . High confidence. NW winds continue to diminish as high pressure builds in from the west. Wind gusts will continue decreasing as the high relaxes the pressure gradient.

Tonight and Friday . High confidence. High pressure will be in control of our waters tonight keeping winds/seas below small craft thresholds. High pressure moves east of the waters Fri, allowing southerly winds to increase with gusts of 20 to 25 knots developing during the afternoon. We also may see some marginal 5 foot seas develop across our outer waters, so SCA headlines will need to be considered.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/ .

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain likely.

Sunday through Sunday Night: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CT . None. MA . None. RI . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ250- 251-254.

SYNOPSIS . Frank/BL/EVT NEAR TERM . BL SHORT TERM . Frank LONG TERM . EVT AVIATION . BL MARINE . BL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi26 min WNW 12 G 14 30°F 46°F2 ft1038.2 hPa (-0.3)13°F
44090 24 mi16 min 45°F3 ft
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 28 mi46 min 31°F 40°F1038 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 28 mi26 min WNW 14 G 18 30°F 3 ft1038.4 hPa (+0.0)14°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 31 mi72 min NW 9.7 G 14 29°F 46°F1 ft1037.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi91 min WNW 4.1 47°F 1039 hPa37°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 38 mi46 min NW 7 G 8.9 36°F 1039.1 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi52 min 32°F 42°F1038.8 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 38 mi52 min 32°F 41°F1039.4 hPa
FRXM3 39 mi52 min 31°F 13°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 44 mi52 min Calm G 6 32°F 39°F1039.1 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi46 min N 4.1 G 6 32°F 1039.3 hPa13°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 45 mi36 min 43°F1 ft
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 45 mi46 min NNW 6 G 9.9 35°F 42°F1039 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi91 min N 6 31°F 1040 hPa17°F
PRUR1 48 mi46 min 31°F 14°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi46 min NNE 5.1 G 7 31°F 1039.7 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA2 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair32°F15°F51%1038.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA12 mi24 minW 410.00 miFair28°F16°F60%1038.7 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA24 mi20 minWNW 12 G 1710.00 miFair32°F18°F56%1038.7 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi24 minNNW 610.00 miFair32°F15°F50%1038.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPYM

Wind History from PYM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5CalmW5SW4SW5SW3CalmSW3SW6W5W7W7NW7W6W6NW7NW8NW8NW6NW9NW7NW9W8W4
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Tide / Current Tables for Brant Rock, Green Harbor River, Massachusetts
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:02 AM EST     -4.37 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 03:04 AM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:02 AM EST     4.17 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:19 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:20 PM EST     -4.63 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:26 PM EST     0.04 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:11 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:29 PM EST     4.42 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:58 PM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-4.4-4.1-3.1-0.82.93.94.23.93.21.7-2.6-4-4.6-4.5-3.7-2.12.43.84.44.43.92.9-0.6-3.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.