Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 3:47 AM   Moonset 4:41 PM

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LEZ149 Expires:202405050815;;639320 Fzus51 Kcle 050204 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 1004 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez148-149-050815- geneva-on-the-lake to conneaut oh-conneaut oh to ripley ny- 1004 pm edt Sat may 4 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Scattered showers late this evening, then numerous showers with isolated Thunderstorms after midnight. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Sunday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers with isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Sunday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - North winds 10 knots or less. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 051317 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 917 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front brings showers and thunder storms today, exiting to the east tonight. High pressure builds in from the north for Monday. A warm front comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
930 AM update...
No changes were needed with this late morning update.

630 AM Update...
Some POP timing changes for the afternoon into the evening, but the main components of the forecast are still mainly the same.
Also adjusted the forecast high temperatures slightly as well.

Previous Discussion...
Cold front stretching from Michigan through Indiana and western Kentucky will track eastward into western Ohio over the next few hours, then into the CWA through the late morning and afternoon.
Currently, ahead of the cold front, convection firing along PVA in the southwesterly flow aloft. The cold front coming through later today will provide forcing for convective initiation after 16Z.
Modest SBCAPE becomes available with some heating, but with modest lapse rates and in the mid levels and low/mid level flows less than 25kts, only expecting some wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Still outlooked for a marginal risk from SPC generally east of I-71 but think any issues with convection today would be isolated, although non-zero. Cold front should be east of the CWA by 03Z Monday with low and mid level clearing. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will then build in from the north tonight taking POPs south of the CWA Meanwhile, a trough axis again in the southwesterly flow will begin moving into the Ohio Valley, bringing POPs northward again, but coming up short of the southern zones by 00Z Tuesday.
Behind the cold front, a bit cooler weather expected Monday with mid 60s north to lower 70s south.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will shift to New England by Tuesday. At the same time, a 120 knot upper level jet rounds the base of the Plains trough with the trough becoming oriented from Minnesota to the Central Great Lakes. Low level moisture advection ramps up as a surface trough weakens while reaching the local area.
Slowed down chances of rain although pops remain fairly high as the warm front lifts north Tuesday afternoon and evening. Instability may reach 1500-2000 J/kg of ml CAPE. 0-6km shear values vary based on different model solutions but could be in the 30-50 knot range.
The Storm Prediction Center has included most of the western half of the area in a Slight Risk for severe weather with a marginal risk extending a little farther east to nearly the Ohio/Pennsylvania state line. High temperatures are forecast to reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees with dewpoints climbing into the low 60s along the front. Organized convection appears possible both along the northward moving warm front and ahead of the cold front that will settle back south Tuesday evening. Most lingering activity should exit the area to the east Wednesday morning. Cooling behind the front on Tuesday looks negligible with highs on Wednesday back into the upper 70s. Can not rule out a low chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday depending on the where the frontal boundary stalled.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Another area of low pressure is forecast to track northeast from the southern Plains to the Central Great Lakes on Thursday bringing more showers and possibly thunderstorms. A stronger cold front will push south across the area Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level trough deepens overhead. High temperatures will be below normal Friday and Saturday and followed guidance trends in lowering temperatures a few degrees for both days. Temperatures will generally be in the low 60s but may not get out of the 50s in NW Pennsylvania where 850mb temperatures may be as low as 3-4C. Models are struggling with how to handle the interaction between this trough and another piece of energy diving south out of Canada. In general expecting the weekend to be on the cool side of normal with scattered showers and a broad cyclonic flow.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/
More shower/isolated storm development this morning largely east of CLE/CAK. Cold front will be moving in from the west, and with some additional heating/mixing that will lift some of the lower ceilings out ahead of it, more thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon through the evening. However, timing of this has it most likely to occur after 16Z which puts it east of the I-71 corridor, mainly from CLE/MFD and east. Some gusty winds can be expected in the scattered thunderstorms, and only use TEMPO for CAK and YNG. Other terminals carrying VCTS/CB for a couple hours in the afternoon. Behind the cold front, it will take a few hours for the ceilings to clear out into the overnight portion of the forecast, and winds can be expected to become northerly late in the forecast period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday with another frontal system.

MARINE
A trough will cross Lake Erie today, pulling a cold front southeast across the lake. Winds veer to the north behind the front and increase to 10 to 20 knots with waves building to 1 to 3 feet. Winds veer to northeasterly on Monday as high pressure builds from the central to eastern Great Lakes. An active pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift north across the lake on Wednesday with southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots. A second area of low pressure is expected to track near Lake Erie on Thursday, pulling a stronger cold front south behind it on Friday.
The track of this low may change and have an effect on wind direction, speeds, and wave heights. Tentatively conditions look to approach Small Craft Advisory criteria by Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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