Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmette, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:50PM Sunday January 19, 2020 1:04 AM CST (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:15AMMoonset 1:40PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:202001191100;;169926 Fzus53 Klot 190339 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 939 Pm Cst Sat Jan 18 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-191100- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 939 Pm Cst Sat Jan 18 2020
.gale warning in effect until 3 am cst Sunday...
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Sunday morning...
Rest of tonight..West gales to 45 kt gradually diminishing to winds up to 30 kt by daybreak. A few flurries. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft subsiding to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Sunday..West winds to 30 kt. Heavy freezing spray in the morning. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Slight chance of snow after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the late morning and afternoon.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmette, IL
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location: 42.08, -87.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 190442 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1042 PM CST Sat Jan 18 2020

UPDATE. 945 PM CST

Only real change to near term forecast was to beef up sky cover some tonight into Sunday and add flurries rest of tonight. Back edge of thicker stratus seen clearly in GOES imagery is beginning to move into western CWA, however, additional thinner arctic stratocu deck blankets much of northern IA into NW IL. Very hard to see this stratus as satellite imagery due to thin nature of the cloud cover. Temps within the stratus deck are colder than -12C, so clouds likely contain the necessary ice nuclei for snow production. Obviously given the scant moisture and lack of forcing, not expecting much snow of note, however it is quite common for stratocumulus to leak flurries from time to time in this type of air mass. Didn't introduce flurry chance for Sunday, but wouldn't be surprised to see a few flakes in the air from time to time. Temps, winds, and wind chill headlines look right on track and no changes made.

- Izzi

SHORT TERM. 200 PM CST

Through Sunday night .

Concerns are on the cold, including some dangerous cold wind chills tonight into Sunday morning, and then on lake effect snow showers across northwest Indiana later Sunday and Sunday night.

A powerhouse cold front is making in-roads into northern Illinois this afternoon with 2 hr temperature drops of some 20 degrees observed across Iowa and western Illinois this afternoon, coupled with wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range. The strongest winds are on the leading edge of the cold advection with gusts above 45 mph possible for a short time before settling into the 40-45 mph range this afternoon/early evening. This has been handled with a special weather statement for the brief nature of the advisory level wind gusts. The winds are also helping to dry out area roadways, but some locally icy spots are certainly possible so caution on the roads is urged. Radar returns indicate some isolated to scattered snow showers approaching as well. These have generally had limited visibility reductions upstream, but there are some banded snow showers which could briefly reduce visibility to 1-2 miles. Cannot rule out some snow blowing around this afternoon with these.

The exiting surface low will strengthen for several more hours as it moves off into Quebec which will maintain a strong pressure gradient across the region tonight. Cold advection will drive temperatures into the single digits this evening. Wind chill readings will crash below zero area wide this evening, bottoming out in the -15 to -20 range, a tad colder north and west of Chicago. Clouds should hold as low level winds will turn around to northerly. In collaboration with neighboring offices, we have hoisted a Wind Chill Advisory for the colder areas. Conditions do not look to head too far below the -20 criteria, but these areas are favorable for several hours tonight into early Sunday. Seemed prudent to go this route given the significant air mass change and having not had wind chills close to this for some time.

Focus will turn to the potential for lake effect snow into northwest Indiana later Sunday and Sunday night. The cold air will get reinforced on the back side of a digging upper trough across Great Lakes. A secondary trough across the upper Midwest will also help to push the strong surface high a bit closer. We will remain with gusty northwest winds ahead of the high on Sunday, thus highs will only reach the teens and wind chills topping out in the single digits.

Sunday night appears like it will be a favorable period for lake effect snow across northwest Indiana, depending on where the best convergence axis sets up. Thermodynamics are modest, not off the charts by any means, but lake induced equilibrium levels look sufficient and with a favorable wind direction, accumulations are looking more likely for portions of the southern tip of the lake. With lighter winds, wind chills will hold a bit higher Sunday night, but still below zero outside of the immediate urban corridor.

KMD

LONG TERM. 150 PM CST

Monday through Saturday .

Monday through Wednesday: Weak mid-level ridging on the northeast flank of a southeastward moving mid-level low will slowly shift across the CWA on Monday. With residual dry air and suppression from the ridge, any synoptic light snow showers/flurries should remain west and south of the CWA. Near Lake Michigan in northwest Indiana, light LES may continue into the morning hours before rather low inversion heights shutoff remaining activity by the afternoon.

Pronounced ridging will then build into the region through Wednesday as a slowly weakening surface high pressure drifts across Illinois. Temperatures should moderate back to seasonable levels by Wednesday within increasing south to southwest flow.

Wednesday night through Saturday: A more active period of weather will return as the result of phasing between northern and southern stream troughs. As is often the case this far out in lower resolution global guidance, the true nature and resultant effects of the phasing is only crudely modeled. Broad weak WAA under a series of weak troughs rippling to the northeast during the phasing over the Central Plains combined with increasing low-level moisture will result in some generally light precip spreading northward across the Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday night. Substantially dry antecedent air should limit most precip from reaching the ground, but will maintain a chance of light snow Wednesday night and a chance of a light rain/snow mix on Thursday for mainly the northwest half of the CWA.

The newly formed trough/low will then shift northeast into the southern Great Lakes Friday through Saturday. If current guidances pans out, another mixed precipitation event would be expected. Still considerably far out to consider discussing any more details at at this point, but the main message is that another period of unsettled weather with wintry precip is possible late week into the weekend.

Kluber

AVIATION. For the 06Z TAFs .

Strong and gusty west winds will continue through the night with only some slight easing in the magnitude as the night wears on. Generally expecting MVFR CIGS to persist with intermittent flurries and perhaps just a brief VSBY reduction or two in light snow, but no accumulation expected. Winds continue to relax gradually Sunday with MVFR CIGS probably lingering. Flurries remain possible Sunday.

- Izzi/KB

MARINE. 155 PM CST

A strong cold front moving cross northern Illinois early this afternoon will soon cross southern Lake Michigan and shift winds westerly with a rapid increase to gales to 45 knots. These westerly gales will continue through early Sunday morning with westerly winds still to 30 knots on Sunday. As much colder air spreads across the region tonight, heavy freezing spray will develop, especially across the Indiana nearshore waters.

Kluber

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . Wind Chill Advisory . ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ008-ILZ010-ILZ011- ILZ012-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ032 until 10 AM Sunday.

IN . Lakeshore Flood Advisory . INZ002 until noon Sunday.

LM . Gale Warning . Winthrop Harbor to Gary IN until 3 AM Sunday.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning . LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743- Gary to Michigan City IN until noon Sunday.

Gale Warning . Gary to Michigan City IN until 6 AM Sunday.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi44 min W 27 G 30 8°F 3°F
CNII2 17 mi19 min W 19 G 25 7°F 1°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 26 mi46 min WSW 12 G 20 6°F 1016.6 hPa-1°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 35 mi64 min W 22 G 31 7°F 1014.6 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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SE13
G23
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G14
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G16
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W8
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G12
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W3
G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi72 minW 15 G 2910.00 miOvercast7°F-2°F63%1017.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi73 minW 20 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy5°F-2°F72%1017.5 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL20 mi71 minW 22 G 309.00 miLight Snow and Breezy6°F-2°F69%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE7SE7SE8SE8S6S7SW6SW9W9
G19
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1 day agoNW4CalmNW3N3CalmN3CalmCalmSE12
G20
SE11
G17
SE10SE11SE7SE5SE7E7E10SE12
G20
SE11
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SE14
G23
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2 days agoNW14
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W10W12NW11NW11
G21
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G19
NW7W10NW10NW8NW8NW9NW7N5N5NW4NW4N4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.