Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmette, IL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:21PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:10 AM CST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 7:55PMMoonset 10:27AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201912141600;;762720 Fzus53 Klot 140950 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 350 Am Cst Sat Dec 14 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-141600- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 350 Am Cst Sat Dec 14 2019
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt this morning and to 15 to 25 kt this afternoon. Slight chance of drizzle and light freezing drizzle this morning. Waves 1 ft or less building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest around 5 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds around 5 kt becoming east after midnight. Chance of snow. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmette, IL
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location: 42.08, -87.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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FXUS63 KLOT 141145 AFDLOT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 545 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2019

SHORT TERM. 240 AM CST

Through Sunday .

A cold front is currently shifting eastward over north central IL as of this writing. In the wake of this front, a large area of low cloud cover (IFR) is gradually overspreading the region. It will be with these low clouds this morning that we will have to monitor the possibility for a short period of some patchy light freezing drizzle following the frontal passage. Fortunately, if this drizzle/freezing drizzle does materialize, it should not cause any significant issues into the Chicago metro area as temperatures should warm above freezing by mid morning. This afternoon the threat of any light precipitation will end and the low cloud cover is likely to dissipate over the area late this afternoon and into this evening.

Expect high temperatures today to top out in the lower 30s north central, to the upper 30s over eastern IL and northwestern IN. Overnight low tonight will drop into the teens in most areas as clearing skies this evening sets the stage for a chilly night.

On Sunday cooler temperatures are expected over the area, but mainly dry weather is forecast as we await the next storm system likely to produce some light accumulating snow over portions of the area Sunday night into Monday. Some light snow could develop over my far southern central IL counties as early as late Sunday afternoon, but the main impact from this approaching disturbance through the day Sunday will be the increasing mid-level cloud cover over the area.

KJB

LONG TERM. 332 AM CST

Sunday night through Friday .

The main focus for the extended period continues to center on the threat of at least some light accumulating snow over portions of the area Sunday night through Monday evening. Forecast model and ensemble guidance continues to suggest that this will be a glancing hit for northern IL. Light snow is likely to be the primary precipitation type Sunday night and Monday, though we may have to watch for the possibility of a period of freezing drizzle over my southern areas late Sunday night into Monday morning.

On Sunday a belt of strong westerly upper level flow will set up over the mid section of the county in advance of a short wave impulse beginning to transverse the Southern Rockies. As this occurs, it will induce an increase in southerly lower level flow atop a sharpening west-to-east surface boundary over the Ozarks, thus resulting in a broad area of good isentropic upglide (warm air advection) over the Lower Missouri Valley on Sunday. This will likely result in blossoming precipitation shield in the form of a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain to our south over MO and southern IL during the day Sunday.

While this wintry precipitation should remain to our south during much of the day Sunday, some light snow could begin to develop into my far southern central IL counties late in the day. A better shot at a period of light snow looks to occur Sunday evening, however, as the entrance region of the upper jet and a band of low-level frontogenesis begins to set up more favorably over central IL. This should allow snow to overspread my southern CWA for the evening, especially for areas south of I-80.

Some periods of light snow should continue over my southern CWA through Monday, before it wanes Monday evening. We will need to monitor the possibility for some periods of mixed precipitation, such as freezing drizzle/rain late Sunday night into Monday morning. There is still some things to be ironed out with total snow amounts, but at this time it appears that snow amounts will not be overly impressive over my area. Amounts of up to 2 to 4 inches looks most probable over my central IL counties, with amounts tapering to less than an inch over far northern IL.

Following this event, a few days of quiet weather is forecast. While temperatures will be on the cold side for Tuesday, expect temperatures to be on a warming trend through the end of next week.

KJB

AVIATION. For the 12Z TAFs .

545 AM . Forecast concerns include .

Low mvfr/ifr cigs into this afternoon. Chance for patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle this morning. Gusty northwest winds today.

A cold front is moving across the area early this morning. Light winds are shifting light north/northwest. Directions will slowly turn more northwesterly through the morning with speeds increasing to 10-12kts. Gusts to 20kts are expected this afternoon and these may continue into the early evening with speeds slowly diminishing tonight.

A few holes in the clouds developed early this morning which allowed some light fog to develop. Mvfr cigs have also begun to develop across northeast IL with low mvfr and ifr cigs to the northwest of the Chicago area. Guidance is in good agreement with these cigs moving across the terminals this morning. Prevailing low mvfr cigs look on track for several hours but confidence for ifr cigs is low and maintained these with tempo mention. Cigs will slowly lift this afternoon and should scatter out this evening.

Confidence for drizzle or freezing drizzle this morning is fairly low. Temperatures are currently mainly below freezing but are expected to warm a few degrees in the Chicago area. If drizzle does materialize . it most likely would be freezing drizzle at dpa/rfd. It also may be fairly patchy as well. Despite the low confidence . maintained drizzle at ord/mdw/gyy for mid/late morning. cms

LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. IN . None. LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi131 min NNW 5.1 G 6 35°F 35°F
CNII2 17 mi116 min N 4.1 G 9.9 35°F 33°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 26 mi131 min NNW 5.1 G 8 34°F 1005.4 hPa (-0.4)33°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 35 mi71 min WNW 5.1 G 7 31°F 1006.4 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi19 minNW 74.00 miFog/Mist33°F28°F85%1007.1 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi20 minWNW 64.00 miFog/Mist31°F28°F92%1006.4 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL20 mi18 minWNW 68.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F30°F89%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW3CalmS4S6S6S7W4W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW3N3CalmNW4NW7
1 day agoS14
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S12S8S8S7S8SW5SW4S3S3S3
2 days agoW6W12
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G16
6W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SE4SE5SE6SE7S10S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.