Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wilmette, IL

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Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday August 17, 2019 1:15 PM CDT (18:15 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ741 Expires:201908172115;;783415 Fzus53 Klot 171631 Nshlot Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Chicago/romeoville Il 1131 Am Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered. Lmz740>742-172115- Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 1131 Am Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves building to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ741


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wilmette, IL
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location: 42.08, -87.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 171616
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1116 am cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
1115 am cdt
minor updates this morning as a wing of showers and thunderstorms
progress northeastward across northeast il and northwest in. This
potential continues into the early afternoon. While no severe
weather is imminent, can't entirely rule out a near-severe gust
and small hail through the remainder of the morning.

Behind this initial wave, satellite radar trends along with many
hi-res cams suggest somewhat of a lull in activity early-mid
afternoon. However, by mid-late afternoon, focus turns to another
incoming wave (currently across southeast ia northeast mo), once
again increasing the chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the forecast area. The most likely
time frame for this development looks to be between 20z - 00z
before activity exits east of the CWA leaving another break in the
action for much of the evening hours. Once again, a non-zero
threat that any additional convection later this afternoon may
include gusty winds and hail.

Heading into tonight, latest trends continue to suggest convective
development across eastern ia northwest il before rolling eastward
toward the forecast area after midnight. Will continue to monitor
that threat through the afternoon with additional updates to
follow.

Gillen

Short term
323 am cdt
through today...

main forecast challenges concerns are with likely isolated
thunderstorms early this morning for areas along and south of
i-80, and then additional more widespread showers and storms
expected later this morning through midday for areas south of i-88
in il and northwest in.

In the near term, have observed a few severe storms with large
hail and damaging winds develop just south of i-80. These storms
are focused right along surface lower level boundary situated
across the area, where higher moisture dewpoint air is pooling.

Large scale support has been in the form of a fairly stout mid
level vort swinging right through the middle of the cwa. Expect
the current warned storms to persist as the move east into
northern in over the next hour, as this large scale forcing slides
east. The high shear environment with steepening mid level lapse
rates will continue to support the threat of large hail and
damaging winds to around 70 mph, especially as these storms are
forming along the MLCAPE axis with limited to no CIN and with even
some higher dcape noted over the last hour. As these storms shift
east of the area over the next hour, may see a lull in the
overall precip early this morning across the area. Can't rule some
isolated showers or storms, but should see the intensity of any
storms be weaker with limited forcing focus.

Turn attention towards upstream precip and focus, which will
likely provide additional thunderstorm chances for a good portion
of the CWA through midday. Upstream mid levels remain highly
active and energetic per latest satellite trends, and with the
abundance of convection noted across the central plains. Several
well defined waves mid level speed maxes noted on satellite will
track east through early to mid morning. Previously mentioned
boundary which is in place from in il back into northern mo will
once again be a focus for blossoming thunderstorms across the
region, with large scale forcing once again increasing and with
low mid level WAA focusing more towards our area. This blossoming
thunderstorm development will be along and ahead of the current
storms over mo, with latest trends and short term guidance
providing higher confidence of these storms development to work
their way into the southern CWA in the 8- 10 am time frame. As
these storms move east this morning, they will likely encounter
increasing ascent to the north, and it's appearing highly likely
that northward development will occur and impact areas further to
the north in the cwa. These storms will likely reach the i-80 to
i-88 corridor by mid morning, with most locations along south of
i-88 observing showers and thunderstorms. Confidence lowers with
how far north these storms will reach, however, it's possible that
locations just north of i-88 in il also briefly observe this
arching line of storms by mid to late morning. Confidence with
intensity of these anticipated storms later this morning is
somewhat lower, but given trends right now, think the threat of
strong to severe storms is definitely there. The environment will
likely not change, with high shear and steep lapse rates once
again supporting organized development. Large hail and damaging
winds of at least 60 mph will be possible with any storm through
mid late morning.

These storms should move east of the area by early to mid
afternoon with most locations drying out. However, additional
energy is expected to once again move overhead this afternoon,
with at least isolated to widely scattered storms possible across
far northeast il and northwest in. Confidence on this development
and intensity is even lower, but with with plenty of moisture and
instability still remaining overhead, do think a strong to severe
storm or two will again be possible this afternoon into early
evening.

Rodriguez

Long term
347 am cdt
tonight through Friday...

pattern will remain active at the start of the period, with
additional widespread thunderstorms appearing likely late tonight
into early Sunday morning. Seemingly no real change to the overall
pattern environment tonight, with highly active energetic mid
levels and a strong LLJ supporting strong WAA across the region
still expected to be in place. Will also see increasing
instability moisture during this time, which will all support
thunderstorm development tonight. There may be some isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms across the area this evening, but
don't expect more widespread storms to arrive until after
midnight. Expect a complex of storms to develop across ia this
evening, and then track east into northern il and northwest in
later in the night into early Sunday morning. Most guidance in
good agreement with this overall solution, though some do vary
with coverage and intensity of the approaching storms. Do feel
fairly confident that most locations across the CWA will observe
showers thunderstorms, but with some lower confidence on
intensity. However, with the expected environment and recent
trends, feel that a more probable solution will be for a severe
threat for much of the CWA and will continue to message this. Hail
will be a threat, but with damaging winds more of a likely
threat. The high pwat air and higher coverage of storms does
provide some concerns for heavy downpours with at least isolated
flooding.

Should see these storms exit Sunday morning, with some dry
conditions expected during the day. With lingering surface
trough boundary across the region, additional thunderstorms will
be possible Sunday night. The pattern expected at the start of
next week will support warm humid conditions with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90. Expect periodic thunderstorm chances
during this time, with MCS development appearing probable across
the region. Should see a front swing through by midweek and bring
a change to the pattern, with cooler drier conditions expected at
least through the end of the work week.

Rodriguez

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

numerous aviation weather concerns over the next 24-30 hours (and
beyond), with, in general, fairly low confidence especially with
respect to timing of TS at the terminals.

The main concerns revolve around:
-convective potential mid-late morning and timing coverage of
tsra.

-additional shower thunderstorm potential this afternoon.

-robust convective development very late tonight and into tomorrow
morning.

Latest satellite imagery continues to show a series of impulses
upstream embedded within a ribbon of fast mid and upper-level
flow. One wave is enhancing thunderstorm activity moving through
central il and gradually building to the northeast. While this
particular area of thunderstorms is not likely to impact the
terminals, another, strong isentropic lift aloft is generating and
east-west oriented line of convection is filling in from sqi-gyy.

Individual cells along the line are moving to the east at arnd 30
kt, while the entire line is slowly translating to the north.

Bast on the latest trends, mdw gyy will be the first of the
terminals to be impacted by this line and certainly cannot rule
out the potential for the line to translate farther north,
reaching ord dpa rfd. Main adjustment to the tafs is to go with
prevailing shra and tempo tsra for the late morning early
afternoon hours. Given some uncertainty on how solid that the line
will fill. There is the possibility that prevailing tsra may be
needed, at least for a short time.

This activity should then move east of the area by early
afternoon. Confidence continues to drop thereafter with potential
subsidence behind this wave, tempering afternoon convective
chances. Alternatively, yet another series of waves currently over
the central plains could provide the impetus for additional
development.

Finally, robust convection is expected to develop across our
region very late tonight and into tomorrow, some of which could
be strong to severe. Given the extended range, have gone with just
a prob30 mention for tsra for some of the morning hours, which
could be extended later into the afternoon.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45174 5 mi26 min E 3.9 G 7.8 74°F1 ft1010 hPa
FSTI2 8 mi76 min SSE 6 73°F
OKSI2 13 mi76 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 76°F
45177 14 mi136 min 75°F1 ft
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 14 mi86 min S 7 G 8 73°F 73°F
CNII2 17 mi16 min E 7 G 8.9 75°F 69°F
45186 20 mi16 min SE 9.7 G 14 75°F 74°F1 ft
JAKI2 22 mi76 min E 8 G 9.9 75°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 26 mi46 min S 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 1011.9 hPa71°F
45187 29 mi16 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 79°F 74°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 35 mi16 min SE 12 G 13 75°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 43 mi36 min S 2.9 G 6 76°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL9 mi24 minE 610.00 miA Few Clouds74°F68°F82%1011.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL11 mi25 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F69°F87%1011.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL20 mi23 minNNE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F71°F82%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPWK

Wind History from PWK (wind in knots)
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W3SW4W4SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S12E6
1 day agoNE8E7NE8NE9NE6E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE8S7S10S12
G19
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2 days agoNW7NE6NE10
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N6N6N4N5NW6N5N7N5NW7NW5NW5NW7NW5N6N8N6NE7E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.