Saturday, July24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakewood, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:45PM Saturday July 24, 2021 5:39 PM EDT (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:42PMMoonset 5:16AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1032 Am Edt Sat Jul 24 2021
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ040 Expires:202107242100;;378359 FZUS51 KBUF 241432 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1032 AM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-242100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, NY
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location: 42.1, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 241833 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 233 PM EDT Sat Jul 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. Scattered showers will move into far western NY this afternoon. More in the way of widespread showers and storms will move across western and north central NY just ahead of a cold front that will cross the area tonight. A cold front will then move through the region Sunday, bringing a few more showers, before dry weather returns for the start of the new work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Regional radar shows showers approaching from the west this afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase across the region with scattered light showers moving into far western NY this afternoon. Dry conditions will continue east of the Genesee River today. Warmer and more humid today as moisture continues to increase ahead of the next system.

A warm front extends across the long axis of Lake Huron down to western Lake Erie this afternoon. There is a sharp moisture gradient across the region with PWATS less than an inch across most of western and north central NY to close to 2 inches just to the west of Buffalo. The area of showers and moisture will track east into western NY through early evening and through late evening across north central NY. The warm front will move east of north central NY tonight while southwest winds increase across the region. Additional moisture will advect into the region ahead of an approaching cold front and shortwave trough. A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will form west of the region today and track across western and north central NY tonight. Elevated instability will increase but remain weak tonight. The best chance for thunderstorms will be with the organized line of convection between 12am-8am tonight. This line have forward progression however high moisture content will result in heavy downpours especially with thunderstorms. Widespread basin average amounts of 0.5-1.0 are expected with localized higher amounts in storms. CAM guidance suggest east of Lake Erie and southwest of Lake Ontario as the areas to see the higher amounts of close to an inch of rainfall through Sunday morning. Warm tonight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A cold front will move through the region Sunday morning. While a lot of mid-level dry air moves into the region, greatly reducing PWATS, surface dewpoints linger through the afternoon. With surface temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s, isolated showers are possible mainly across interior locations and along lake breezes in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Weak surface-based ridging will provide our region with mainly dry and quiet weather for the first 36 hours of this period. The lone exception to this will be across the Saint Lawrence Valley and the northeastern extremities of the North Country later Monday afternoon and Monday evening . when a passing weak trough could produce a few brief showers and storms. Otherwise temps will range a little bit above average . with highs in the low-mid 80s Monday sandwiched between lows mainly in the lower to mid 60s both Sunday and Monday nights Later Sunday night. light winds and mainly clear skies may allow dewpoint depressions to narrow enough for some patchy fog to develop within the Southern Tier river valleys.

Tuesday and Tuesday night persistent broad upper-level troughing across our region will amplify again as another shortwave impulse works its way through the mean west-northwesterly flow aloft . with an attendant weak surface trough/cold front traversing our region from north to south between late Tuesday and Tuesday night. These features will provide us with our next general risk of at least some scattered showers and storms . with these again mainly focused on the late Tuesday/Tuesday night time frame. Owing to the amplifying trough . temperatures will begin a gradual downward trend that will last through the rest of the week . with Tuesday's highs ranging from the mid-upper 70s east of Lake Ontario to the lower 80s elsewhere . and lows Tuesday night similarly ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The 12Z suite of model runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue with the idea of a faster frontal / shortwave aloft passage. This idea, along with a surface high pressure to our north over western Quebec will bring a more optimistic forecast with just a low chance for a shower south of the Thruway early in the day, and areas along the NYS Thruway and northward likely to be dry. A mid level dry airmass associated with the surface high to our north will bring increasing amounts of sunshine through the day.

The drying with the surface high may even continue the dry pattern into Wednesday night, through with the still presence of a mid level trough, a spot shower or two is possible.

Thursday and Thursday Night another shortwave sliding down from the Upper Great Lakes will again deepen the mid level trough over the Eastern Great Lakes. Increasing surface instability will warrant the mention of thunder too, though lapse rates above the boundary layer are not too impressive for convection.

Friday and Saturday are looking generally dry . with comfortable summer temperatures and humidity. The upper level trough bringing the "cooler" summer temperatures will also bring a low chance for a shower, especially across eastern Lake Ontario region which will lie closer the the trough axis.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions continue this afternoon. A warm front will move across the region this evening and southwest winds will increase. A 40kt low-level jet may cause LLWS at the western terminals this evening but kept it out of the TAFs since surface winds are also expected to increase. If they remain light with no wind gusts then LLWS may be needed in the TAF. A few showers are possible across the western terminals this afternoon but VFR should continue.

More rain will arrive tonight as a cold front approaches from the Mid-West. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form to the west today and track across the region overnight. TAFs will deteriorate during this time with IFR conditions expected late tonight/early Sunday morning from BUF to JHW. Cigs should stay MVFR elsewhere however vsbys will likely go to IFR at times in heavy showers and storms. A cold front will move through the region Sunday. Winds become westerly and dry air moves in. VFR conditions expected.

Outlook .

Monday . VFR. Tuesday through Wednesday . VFR/MVFR with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday . Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Minimal wind and waves will continue through this afternoon with a light southerly flow. Southwest winds will then freshen tonight and Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching the lower Great Lakes. This will bring an increase in chop on both Lakes with waves averaging 1 to 2 feet across southern Lake Ontario, with waves up to 4 feet possible across the eastern ends of both Lakes. This should preclude the need for any Small Craft Advisories.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . HSK NEAR TERM . HSK SHORT TERM . JJR LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . HSK MARINE . HSK/JM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 27 mi40 min S 7 G 11 73°F 1013.1 hPa (-2.0)
NREP1 27 mi130 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9
EREP1 42 mi52 min S 8 G 12
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 43 mi52 min 73°F 1013.9 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 44 mi40 min SSW 9.7 G 12 73°F 72°F1 ft1012.8 hPa (-2.2)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 58 mi52 min SSW 5.1 G 6 75°F 75°F1012.4 hPa67°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY27 mi47 minS 1010.00 miOvercast75°F68°F79%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3CalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSW4S4S5SE4SE5S7S10S12
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1 day agoW8W6SW4S4S3S3SW4SW4S5SW6SW4SW4S3CalmSW3N3N5N6N7----NW6NW53
2 days ago3W5W6SW4S3S4S3N3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW5NW5NW6NW5W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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