Tuesday, September21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lakewood, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:17PM Tuesday September 21, 2021 10:27 AM EDT (14:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:58PMMoonset 6:29AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1025 Am Edt Tue Sep 21 2021
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Occasional rain during the day, then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ040 Expires:202109212100;;961858 FZUS51 KBUF 211426 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1025 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-212100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakewood, NY
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location: 42.1, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 211031 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure anchored along the New England coastline will keep warm and largely dry weather across our area through today . before giving way to a slowly advancing cold front that will bring periods of soaking rain from late tonight through Thursday night. Following the frontal passage . cooler and mainly dry weather will return for Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1030z . regional radar composites show a large area of warm advection-driven returns pushing northward from Ohio/western PA to Southern Ontario . with its far eastern edge continuing to just brush Chautauqua county This being said. surface observations within this area all suggest that most of these are falling out of a 10-12 kft cloud deck . with just sprinkles or some very light showers ultimately surviving the trip through the much drier air below and reaching the surface Thus. just expect a chance for some sprinkles or light showers across Chautauqua county as this area passes by through about mid morning . with measurable rain still appearing unlikely.

Otherwise . strong ridging will remain firmly anchored along or just offshore of the Atlantic coastline today . while the leading edge of a deep upper level trough and its attendant wavy cold frontal boundary slowly pushes eastward across the Upper Great Lakes. The continued influence of the strong ridge will keep warm and dry weather intact across our region through the day . albeit with a continued gradual increase in mid and high cloud cover As for temps. the deep warm southerly flow across our region will support highs ranging from the lower 70s across the higher terrain to near 80 across the lake plains of far western New York . where readings will get an added boost from downslope compressional warming.

Tonight the ridge will only very begrudgingly slide a bit further offshore . allowing the slow-moving frontal boundary to edge just a little further east to central Lake Erie/Southern Ontario. This will allow for a continued general increase and thickening of cloud cover across our region . though largely dry weather should still persist through the first half of the night. Shower chances should then gradually ramp up overnight from the Genesee Valley westward along the nose of a low level jet developing northward into the area from western PA . with downslope flow effects delaying the arrival of these longest across the Niagara Frontier Otherwise. it will be another unusually warm September night with lows ranging from the lower 60s across the higher terrain to the mid-upper 60s across the lake plains.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. . A Soaking and Potentially Problematic Rain on the Horizon .

Before getting into the details . will pass along that the forecast for this period is largely based on a blend of the ECMWF and NH Can. While these packages have sped up the overall pcpn by about 6 hours from previous forecasts . they remain slower than the outlying GFS . which will continue to be ignored at this point.

The last bit of energy will feed into a sharp longwave trough as we lead into this forecast period. This will lead to the development of a closed low over the Ohio valley on Wednesday . while an inverted sfc trough over the Lower Great Lakes will become energized with well defined cyclogenesis taking place over Ohio. A deep southerly flow ahead of this system will feed copious amounts of moisture +2 to 3 STD) into our region with a divergent flow aloft supplying enough lift to generate some showers. The showery pcpn will focused over the far western counties (west of Gen val) . while most of the day may actually be rain free from the Finger Lakes east.

The closed low over the mid western states will drift north and deepen Wednesday night . while the associated sfc low will do the same as it will track across western Lake Erie. The sfc occlusion will slowly start to cross the far western counties in the process . being slowed by the parallel winds through H7 and a robust Rex block off the coast. Showery pcpn will remain 'hit and miss' east of the Finger Lakes while steadier rain will develop over far western New York where the rain could be moderately heavy to the tune of between a half and one inch. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across the Southern Tier where the environment will be a bit more unstable and synoptic forcing will be greater. This will result in a running 24 hour total rainfall of an inch to an inch and a half over the far western counties. While this should certainly prompt a noticeable jump in water levels on tributaries in that area . its worth pointing out the 6 hour flash flood guidance is two to two and a half inches and the described rainfall up to this point will come in a 24 hour period.

The vertically stacked storm will be centered over Lower Michigan on Thursday while the sfc occlusion will march to the east across our forecast area. A 50-75 mile wide band of moderately heavy rain will precede/accompany the boundary with another half to three quarters of inch expected . primarily over the Genesee valley and Finger Lakes region Again. this will support distinct rises on area tributaries . but relatively dry antecedent conditions leading into this event and rainfall rates below FFG should keep area streams within their banks That being said. WPC continues to shade our forecast area in a marginal risk for excessive rain with a slight risk (next higher category) for the far western counties.

The stacked low will open up and accelerate north across Lake Huron and the SOO Thursday night The occlusion. which should be over the North Country Thursday evening . will exit via the Adirondacks overnight While the showers will end from west to east overnight. rainfall amounts could total another three quarters of inch for the Eastern Lake Ontario region.

All in all . this long lived (48 hour) event will yield forecast rainfall amounts that will range from an inch and a half in most areas to more than 2 inches for parts of far western New York. A southerly flow will result in a roughly 25% reduction in rainfall in the downslope areas for the counties lining the south shore of Lake Ontario. While this is high confidence of the general scenario for significant rain . the timing of the sfc occlusion moving through (and thus timing of heaviest rainfall) is less than optimal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Little change in this forecast package update, timing or should we say departure of the cold front is still in question on Friday. The GFS remains the faster solution than the preferred ECMWF/Canadian- NH. With a strong blocking mid-level ridge to our east, the slower solutions seem more reasonable at this time. With that said, the cold front will likely be oriented in a N/S fashion across Central NY to begin this period (Friday morning), then slowly over the course of the day exits to our east as the sfc low heads due north across the Hudson Bay. Showers will then end in the wake of the cold front across Western NY with colder air (H850T dropping to +4/5C) rushing in under cyclonic flow. This may induce a brief lake response NE of lake Erie with some lake enhance showers. Although, the limiting factor will become available remain synoptic moisture as the sfc low departs. Furthermore, guidance suggest that as the sfc low heads north mid-levels will then begin to warm which will also inhibit or mute a decent lake response.

Friday night, sfc ridge to our south noises northeast in over the eastern Great Lakes which will then bring a brief period of dry weather into Saturday. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave will be in the process of digging southeast across the upper Great Lakes, this will bring the next round of showers and a shot cooler air for the second half of the weekend. More unsettle weather appears likely Monday as chances for showers continue as the next in a series of shortwaves and associated cold fronts bombard the eastern Great Lakes to start the new work week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. During the TAF period . strong ridging draped along the Atlantic coastline will only very begrudgingly give way to a wavy frontal boundary approaching the area from the Upper Great Lakes.

Aside from some spotty MVFR ceilings across interior portions of the Southern Tier early this morning . this will result in largely dry VFR weather remaining intact across our area right through today . albeit with a gradual west-to-east increase in mid and high cloud cover. As we move into tonight and the frontal boundary encroaches more closely upon our region . ceilings will further lower into the lower VFR range across the lower elevations and to MVFR/IFR across the higher terrain . with showers also becoming likely west of a KROC-KDSV line overnight attendant to a low level jet developing northward from Pennsylvania. While not explicitly mentioned in the TAFs at this time . the low level jet may also bring the risk for some LLWS concerns to far western New York.

Outlook . Wednesday through Thursday night . Mainly MVFR with occasional showers. Friday and Saturday . VFR with a chance of showers early Friday across the North Country . and Saturday afternoon across western NY.

MARINE. High pressure draped along/offshore of the Atlantic coastline and a cold front slowly approaching from the Upper Great Lakes will keep a moderately brisk southerly flow intact across the Lower Great Lakes through tonight This stated. the orientation of the flow will keep the highest waves confined to areas well offshore . with conditions thus remaining a little below SCA criteria across eastern portions of both lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . JJR NEAR TERM . JJR SHORT TERM . RSH LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . JJR MARINE . JJR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 27 mi28 min SSE 11 G 15 69°F 1020.8 hPa (-0.0)
NREP1 27 mi118 min SSE 13 G 20
EREP1 42 mi58 min S 8 G 13
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 43 mi58 min 69°F 1019.6 hPa
45142 - Port Colborne 44 mi28 min S 18 G 21 70°F 71°F1020.3 hPa (+0.2)
45167 44 mi48 min 19 G 25 68°F 71°F1 ft
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 58 mi58 min S 12 G 17 69°F 72°F1019.6 hPa60°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY27 mi35 minSSE 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F59°F68%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDKK

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N4NW5NW5NW3NE45S7S6S9S15
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1 day agoE3E5N8N10N8NE8NE7NE7E4S3CalmCalmE3CalmCalmSE3SE6SE5SE6CalmS8E3N3N4
2 days agoN6N7N6N7N75N5N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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